M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[Chaqa]

@chaqa, your read on me for EOD yesterday is completely unexplained. If you also scumread Seth then:

1) What did you mind about my voting Seth?
2) What did you mind about me being a decisive vote on kgray?
3) What did you mind about me moving to not have a potential tie after Jamie/Vecna/rdr would have caused one?

Can you explain why you think I look bad, but kgray squirming or Jamie saving her, or Vecna and rdr moving their votes look OK?

The reason I find you (and also rdr) suspicious for EoD4 is that it’s clear mafia knew who the double voter was, and could therefore assume in the situation yesterday that they would vote against kgray. So it was 6-5 kgray to ghug, and rdr switches making it 6-6.

[Chaqa]

@chaqa, your read on me for EOD yesterday is completely unexplained. If you also scumread Seth then:

1) What did you mind about my voting Seth?
2) What did you mind about me being a decisive vote on kgray?
3) What did you mind about me moving to not have a potential tie after Jamie/Vecna/rdr would have caused one?

Can you explain why you think I look bad, but kgray squirming or Jamie saving her, or Vecna and rdr moving their votes look

The reason I find you (and also rdr) suspicious for EoD4 is that it’s clear mafia knew who the double voter was, and could therefore assume in the situation yesterday that they would vote against kgray. So it was 5-5 kgray to ghug, and rdr switches making it 6-

I hit enter when I was still typing this and I had the numbers jumbled. Also I’m super high, but basically I thought yiur movements and RDR’s were weird!

On second glance, Rivera’s vote is the worst one objectively, though

[damo666]

Given all the big ticket roles were town it is clear that scum recruited.

This leaves them with 10 to spend and I assume they didn't go into debt (so both FH is rejected) and they didn't white flag.

So, they either

A bought 2 costing 5 and a free

B bought 1 5 and 2 lesser

C 3 less than 5

I reject C as a clearly inferior strategy.

B would presumably include voyeur but Vecna seems obvtown and the strategy is also arguably weaker than A.

So I assume A.

Now for the 'free' role PV makes no sense as it is weaker than the other 2 and costs 0 whereas the other 2 gain a credit. Out of FV and TS FV is clearly stronger but TS allows payment for RB RC. I think TS slightly more likely but FV not discounted.

There are 3 possible pairings of 5 priced roles.

UB + FH
UB + ONT
ONT + FH

I have put them in what I consider the order of likelihood.

Now putting names to roles and listing possible recruits in likelihood order* we get

MKC RVBDJ
MKD RVBDC
MJC KRVBD
MJD KRVBC

MBC KRVDJ
MBD KRVJC

BKC RVDJM
BKD RVJCM
BJC KRVDM
BJD KRVCM

* not to be taken too seriously

Number of appearances in first original team

M 6
K 4
J 4
B 6
C 5
D 5

This makes Bunny the vote. However why take ONT and not ENT?

I conclude the original scumteam went suboptimal and gun to head guess is

Macca Jamie Chaqa with rdr or kgray as recruit.

I acknowledge this is against my Jamie read but inevitably I'm going to have misread one of my towncore (Vecna Jamie and darg).

Having written up this analysis I'm more confused than when I started!

[Vecna]

yes

Wasn't that because you'd just lost to scum!bunny in a previous game?

no it was because the entire playerlist was townreading Kgray and scumreading you, so I felt it would be foolish to go against that

[Vecna]

@Vecna: why the hell didn't you watch Macca last night?

He never even popped into my mind as an option, why would I want to be watching him? Just because he now came out with the "lol I wanted to use it so I self-used" post? It was a terrible choice he made. It doesnt make him look more towny whatsoever. It doesnt take away any fears from us of him having used it on you....Also, its not like it was a 100% lock that he was the UB during the nightphase (likely though as it was).

The rationale behind my use was simple.

-Either I do the predictable thing of watching Kgray (which I felt a scum-team with you on it would definitely work around so I wouldnt get anything incriminating)
-Or I watch Jamiet (but I felt if he was targeted by anything it would likely be a roleblock to allow scum to kill me)
-Or I watch someone unpredictable with a smaller chance of maybe catching the UB, or confirming/catching a tracker. Also to make sure that person could be daykilled today.

I had you as my target right up untill an hour before EoN I think. Then my mind focused again on the logic that scum appears to have been avoiding kills that might be docsaved. People were suggesting that Bunny was the second most likeliest person to have been recruited, and he was one of my preferred daykill targets for today at that time.

[Vecna]

"the rationaly behind my choice was simple"

ok maybe not

[Vecna]

Well, im quite confident that Durga would push for a Kgray recruit and visa versa

I wouldn't push to recruit her. I'd love to be on her team but I know she hates being scum so she'd just be pissed at me haha

I dont think thats true at all, but whatever

[Vecna]

Oh, my Chaqa case. It's basically these things:

• Yeah so the main thing is admittedly omgus and that he doesn't have any good reasons for his reads. This goes for everyone, but since he's spent all game focused on scumreading me, I'm the most obvious example. I think he just saw that vocal and respected people were suspicious of me and joined in. He hasn't actually explained why he thinks I'm scum (he vaguely sites "things others have pointed out" and gut, or ignores my questions, or deflects), and yet he's been "convinced" that I'm scum this entire game. The more "concrete" things he has pointed to are just him twisting my words or misrepresenting what happened.

• It's not just that he's not even considering that I could be town, but more importantly he's not even looking for any other scum - even at this stage in the game! It's because he thinks he can just get me miskilled here and it's gg.

• I was similarly suspicious of his confidence in his ghug read. ghug tricked literally everyone into townreading him last game (including Chaqa), and Chaqa never once questioned ghug's alignment here. The worlds most extreme case of buddying.

• Now that we know DV was town, I definitely think he scumslipped with his colored votes list.

Ill pose you an interesting puzzle. What is the most damning thing Rdrivera has done today?

[Vecna]

Oh, my Chaqa case. It's basically these things:

• Yeah so the main thing is admittedly omgus and that he doesn't have any good reasons for his reads. This goes for everyone, but since he's spent all game focused on scumreading me, I'm the most obvious example. My initial reason for scum-reading you was quite light, and involved a general meta justification and gut-feel. I think he just saw that vocal and respected people were suspicious of me and joined in. He hasn't actually explained why he thinks I'm scum (he vaguely sites "things others have pointed out" and gut, or ignores my questions, or deflects) I explained that, as above, it began as a gut feeling, and then your reactions to my scum-read of you were not what I believe to be town reactions., and yet he's been "convinced" that I'm scum this entire game This is not true. I was not convinced until I came up with the idea of locking my vote in until my three top townreads (at the time) said I should. It maybe didn't make the most sense, but the way you reacted to it was VERY scummy, IMO. Instead of trying to convince me and them that you weren't scummy, you attacked me for "shirking" my vote or w/e you had said.. The more "concrete" things he has pointed to are just him twisting my words or misrepresenting what happened.

• It's not just that he's not even considering that I could be town, but more importantly he's not even looking for any other scum - even at this stage in the game! It's because he thinks he can just get me miskilled here and it's gg. This is untrue. I've outlined more townreads than scumreads, true, but I have pushed other scumreads - notably I thought Seth was scummy, and also think Bunny looks bad now./color]

• I was similarly suspicious of his confidence in his ghug read. ghug tricked literally everyone into townreading him last game (including Chaqa), and Chaqa never once questioned ghug's alignment here. The worlds most extreme case of buddying. I didn't really pay attention last game after I died, but I don't rcall thinking ghug was all that town for read reasons - last game I had him down more as a PoE clear because of the day 1 summit bus

• Now that we know DV was town, I definitely think he scumslipped with his colored votes list. To be quite honest, I thought ghug was the Double Voter until he flipped, which was part of why I was townreading him so strongly.

See my remarks in green.

So youre saying you marked the DV in green because you thought it was Ghug?

[Vecna]

why did it turn my post green as well, lol

[Vecna]

@chaqa, your read on me for EOD yesterday is completely unexplained. If you also scumread Seth then:

1) What did you mind about my voting Seth?
2) What did you mind about me being a decisive vote on kgray?
3) What did you mind about me moving to not have a potential tie after Jamie/Vecna/rdr would have caused one?

Can you explain why you think I look bad, but kgray squirming or Jamie saving her, or Vecna and rdr moving their votes look OK?

The reason I find you (and also rdr) suspicious for EoD4 is that it’s clear mafia knew who the double voter was, and could therefore assume in the situation yesterday that they would vote against kgray. So it was 6-5 kgray to ghug, and rdr switches making it 6-6.

If you are actually town as you claim, then how can you be so sure that scum knew who the double voter was......

[Vecna]

@chaqa, your read on me for EOD yesterday is completely unexplained. If you also scumread Seth then:

1) What did you mind about my voting Seth?
2) What did you mind about me being a decisive vote on kgray?
3) What did you mind about me moving to not have a potential tie after Jamie/Vecna/rdr would have caused one?

Can you explain why you think I look bad, but kgray squirming or Jamie saving her, or Vecna and rdr moving their votes look

The reason I find you (and also rdr) suspicious for EoD4 is that it’s clear mafia knew who the double voter was, and could therefore assume in the situation yesterday that they would vote against kgray. So it was 5-5 kgray to ghug, and rdr switches making it 6-

I hit enter when I was still typing this and I had the numbers jumbled. Also I’m super high, but basically I thought yiur movements and RDR’s were weird!

On second glance, Rivera’s vote is the worst one objectively, though

who is scum with Kgray?

[Vecna]

Given all the big ticket roles were town it is clear that scum recruited.

This leaves them with 10 to spend and I assume they didn't go into debt (so both FH is rejected) and they didn't white flag.

So, they either

A bought 2 costing 5 and a free

B bought 1 5 and 2 lesser

C 3 less than 5

I reject C as a clearly inferior strategy.

B would presumably include voyeur but Vecna seems obvtown and the strategy is also arguably weaker than A.

So I assume A.

Now for the 'free' role PV makes no sense as it is weaker than the other 2 and costs 0 whereas the other 2 gain a credit. Out of FV and TS FV is clearly stronger but TS allows payment for RB RC. I think TS slightly more likely but FV not discounted.

There are 3 possible pairings of 5 priced roles.

UB + FH
UB + ONT
ONT + FH

I have put them in what I consider the order of likelihood.

Now putting names to roles and listing possible recruits in likelihood order* we get

MKC RVBDJ
MKD RVBDC
MJC KRVBD
MJD KRVBC

MBC KRVDJ
MBD KRVJC

BKC RVDJM
BKD RVJCM
BJC KRVDM
BJD KRVCM

* not to be taken too seriously

Number of appearances in first original team

M 6
K 4
J 4
B 6
C 5
D 5

This makes Bunny the vote. However why take ONT and not ENT?

I conclude the original scumteam went suboptimal and gun to head guess is

Macca Jamie Chaqa with rdr or kgray as recruit.

I acknowledge this is against my Jamie read but inevitably I'm going to have misread one of my towncore (Vecna Jamie and darg).

Having written up this analysis I'm more confused than when I started!

the difference between ONT and ENT makes very little difference in most setups. The one point usually does not enable another rolecop/roleblock attempt (unless it was taken alongside FV/PV/Tree, in which case it leaves 6 or 8 points, enabling an extra use).

[Vecna]

In fact, come to think of it, a Damo + Rdrivera + Chaqa team, recruiting either Bunny or Kgray is a distinct extra option that allows them the points to rolecop their way to viable NK options

[TheMadMonarch]

@Vecna: why the hell didn't you watch Macca last night?

He never even popped into my mind as an option, why would I want to be watching him? Just because he now came out with the "lol I wanted to use it so I self-used" post? It was a terrible choice he made. It doesnt make him look more towny whatsoever. It doesnt take away any fears from us of him having used it on you....Also, its not like it was a 100% lock that he was the UB during the nightphase (likely though as it was).

The rationale behind my use was simple.

-Either I do the predictable thing of watching Kgray (which I felt a scum-team with you on it would definitely work around so I wouldnt get anything incriminating)
-Or I watch Jamiet (but I felt if he was targeted by anything it would likely be a roleblock to allow scum to kill me)
-Or I watch someone unpredictable with a smaller chance of maybe catching the UB, or confirming/catching a tracker. Also to make sure that person could be daykilled today.

I had you as my target right up untill an hour before EoN I think. Then my mind focused again on the logic that scum appears to have been avoiding kills that might be docsaved. People were suggesting that Bunny was the second most likeliest person to have been recruited, and he was one of my preferred daykill targets for today at that time.

They, but continuing.

You told me that using it was bad, that it would hurt town. However, on personal policy, I cannot go the whole game without using the role. So I save the only person I know is not scum, myself.


I present a case as to why I'm town.

As kgray can attest to, when I'm scum, and I need role questions answered, I ask in the QT. PM's are too slow, putting it in the Forum/QT means I can get answers faster. All the questions I was asking about the UB/Gov made it pretty obvious who I was (I was a bit aware of this as I was doing it), and this does not paint me in a good light, especially when the UB/Gov was coming under a lot of heat for being a good choice (I still don't see how, but whatever).

I don't know a lot, but I'm not dumb. If I had access to a QT, I would use it instead.

On a similar note, what happened to the neighborhood watch? Are there still two living people in there? Is there one and they're just hiding?

[Vecna]

im sure youre smart enough as scum as well to think that it might fool people if you post those type of questions in here Macca

[Vecna]

What about if we no kill today with a single vote on Macca?

[TheMadMonarch]

im sure youre smart enough as scum as well to think that it might fool people if you post those type of questions in here Macca

I would disagree. From experience, I'm not.

[TheMadMonarch]

What about if we no kill today with a single vote on Macca?

No kill? Is that safe?

[Vecna]

##Call GM:

How would you adjudicate a majority vote on NO DAY KILL with a single vote on the person that was targetted by a night governor? Would that single vote be reduced to zero votes?