M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamie

Why no questions for damo? It's 30+ hours to EOD. Why is he sheeping now? He made his opinion clear that he wants to vote dargo. Why is he making the dargo wagon look unviable by sitting on chaqa?

Why is dargo instantly sheeping his top scum read to chaqa too?

14. Damo is using statistical analysis in a logical way (which is a very Damo thing to do) and in this context he clearly explained his Chaqa vote, which is not just sheeping, if you read him more carefully. Of the four Chaqa voters, Damo was the only one who expressed himself clearly, therefore my questions were directed at the other three.

I know you think you caught Dargorygel, and that's great, and I'm paying attention to the case you're going to make on that. But there's more than one scum. You are behaving as if you are convinced that Chaqa is not one of them, and must be town. Could you also articulate your townread on Chaqa when you get a moment?

[Vecna]

@vecna... Why do you town read me

100% based on our live interactions. I think youre utterly incapable of faking that back-and-forth attempt at solving, and thinking on your feet like that.

roles be damned, ill follow that instinct no matter what

[damo666]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

Ok you are probably right, the most likely split is 2 high 1 low.

Of the highs (Kgray, Jamie, Vecna, Macca, Bunny, Me) I know I am town and I assume you Vecna are town (if you are scum I think town have lost so I'm ignoring this possibility). Pointless voting for Macca (arguably the most attractive role of the group to scum). This leaves bunny and the 2 docs with probably only 1 of them scum. So, from mpov, the odds are the same. However I do see some merit in your argument so I am revising my voting strategy to the following:

I will vote for whichever of the following looks like having the most chance of being top wagon

rdr chaqa bunny kgray darg Jamie (in s -> t order for interest and for use in event of a tie)

I will not vote for Macca, Vecna nor, unsurprisingly, myself.

So based on current vote count

##vote chaqa

This isn't even close to EOD. Vote your reads. Help build a wagon. Don't just sheep with over 30 hours to go.

My reads are within the post. The only person scummier than Chaqa is rdr and that's marginal. Take my vote off chaqa and put it on rdr in your head if you like.

[Vecna]

10. Despite my lack of posts I am I understand there is no point voting for Macca, although there is something that worries me.

If Macca is town, his claim is surely true. Fine.

If Macca is the scum governor, wouldn't it be a strong strategy to claim he acted on himself, while in fact using his power on the scum-mate he felt was most likely to be a wagon today?

Have we verified that he definitely used the power in the way that he claims? Vecna did you confirm this somehow? Your earlier posts suggest you were not sure what Macca had, or had not, done.

Otherwise, are we worried about the scenario I am suggesting? If so, is there anything we could do, or is it simply not that much of a risk?

I have not been able to conform anything N3 or N4. I can only tell you that bunny is a safe daykill without fear of being gov'd.

[dargorygel]

@vecna... Why do you town read me

100% based on our live interactions. I think youre utterly incapable of faking that back-and-forth attempt at solving, and thinking on your feet like that.

roles be damned, ill follow that instinct no matter what

Thanks. You may all shake your heads at me later, but gut is what we have. I am concerned about those who pretend otherwise. I'm not saying we should not solve, but I'm back to admitting that any mechanics are wifommy guessing.

I have nothing on chaqa but gut feeling, btw. Leaving it there for now. I could vote for the tunnel-king bunny, too.

[BunnyGo]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

So from a statistics point of view, there's no question which 0 or less point role scum would take. If they didn't recruit, they had to take daychat, and then any 3 roles and still have oodles of cash on hand. But nobody has claimed role block yet...so they didn't do that.

So they recruited. In that case, they took fruit vendor (or both doctors). So either kgray is scum and Jamie saved her yesterday (not unlikely), or dargo is scum. There is no other option. So statistics don't matter.

13.
Here is some news. I have never visited nor saved Kgray. I successfully visited Vecna last night, and I know that neither the FV nor the other FH visited him, and I also know that he was not in need of my services.

You appear to claim that this information, that is the fact I didn't save Kgray, mechanically confirms Dargorygel as scum.

Please could you explain this calmly, from start to finish, without using all caps or otherwise getting over-excited? I would greatly appreciate it. If you're on to something, we need to know, but you need to articulate yourself calmly and clearly. I promise that I am listening.

If you are town, what did the scum pick as roles?

They had 80 coins to spend. They could get a recruit for 60.

That leaves them 20 more.

Every role was less than 5 (since one doctor was 5 and the other 15).

So they could have anything they wanted. But if they weren't going to pick 2 doctors, then wouldn't they want a reusable strongman? Scum have so far just been dodging what the doctors have been protecting, but on night 3 they could have given fruit to Maniac (a person who might have been protected).

You asked for a statistics perspective though. So here is something to consider: Whenever someone asks "Wow! You did that really really unlikely thing! (eg guessed the next song on the radio) What are the odds?!" The answer is "100%, because it happened."

So, put yourself in the scum team's mind, back in pregame.

We all did the thought experiment of what we'd have chosen. But we now know more. We know they didn't choose any of the dead roles. We know they didn't choose our roles. So....what were they thinking?! They had a plan. More than anyone else this game, they thought through the roles and interactions for 24 hours together. What did they come up with?

Did they take 2 doctors to prevent any saves and any need for role blocking to kill? Well...that'd require the white flag, but maybe (from my POV...if you're town, then not from your POV).

But if they took some combination of Universal Backup (to prevent town having an overpowered role, and maybe getting lucky themselves) and one doctor, or one tracker (from my POV), or whatever. You're always left with: "what was valuable to them?" And the answer I keep coming back to is "fruit vendor is OP (over powered) as a role. They must have focused on that if not taking both doctors." Now, I'm not sure about the both doctors, maybe they took the white flag deciding that if they got down to 1, they'd have lost.

That said, dargo was a lead wagon D2. He was scummy about his role D3 and 4. He's been making weird votes every day (and not just his OMGUS on me, but things like his recent jump to sheep his supposed biggest scumread). He says things, and then as soon as they're discussed shouts "Look at Bunny, he SUUUUU******KKKKKS!! So I'll vote damo and chaqa!!"

If he is town, then the only other state of the world is you and kgray are scum doctors. You have a white flag. And you two managed to speedwagon ghug yesterday to avoid losing a scum. That's it.

[damo666]

@vecna... Why do you town read me

100% based on our live interactions. I think youre utterly incapable of faking that back-and-forth attempt at solving, and thinking on your feet like that.

roles be damned, ill follow that instinct no matter what

Thanks. You may all shake your heads at me later, but gut is what we have. I am concerned about those who pretend otherwise. I'm not saying we should not solve, but I'm back to admitting that any mechanics are wifommy guessing.

I have nothing on chaqa but gut feeling, btw. Leaving it there for now. I could vote for the tunnel-king bunny, too.

don't you mean burrow-king?

[dargorygel]

No wait.
##vote bunny

[dargorygel]

100% based on our live interactions. I think youre utterly incapable of faking that back-and-forth attempt at solving, and thinking on your feet like that.

roles be damned, ill follow that instinct no matter what

Thanks. You may all shake your heads at me later, but gut is what we have. I am concerned about those who pretend otherwise. I'm not saying we should not solve, but I'm back to admitting that any mechanics are wifommy guessing.

I have nothing on chaqa but gut feeling, btw. Leaving it there for now. I could vote for the tunnel-king bunny, too.

don't you mean burrow-king?

He can have both crowns.

[BunnyGo]

@Jamie

Why no questions for damo? It's 30+ hours to EOD. Why is he sheeping now? He made his opinion clear that he wants to vote dargo. Why is he making the dargo wagon look unviable by sitting on chaqa?

Why is dargo instantly sheeping his top scum read to chaqa too?

14. Damo is using statistical analysis in a logical way (which is a very Damo thing to do) and in this context he clearly explained his Chaqa vote, which is not just sheeping, if you read him more carefully. Of the four Chaqa voters, Damo was the only one who expressed himself clearly, therefore my questions were directed at the other three.

I know you think you caught Dargorygel, and that's great, and I'm paying attention to the case you're going to make on that. But there's more than one scum. You are behaving as if you are convinced that Chaqa is not one of them, and must be town. Could you also articulate your townread on Chaqa when you get a moment?

My town read on Chaqa? I don't remember rereading him and explicitly thinking that. I guess kgray's squirming yesterday and voting her may have messed with my views a little and if I convinced myself to vote her, that I felt like I was agreeing with chaqa. But no, I have nothing strong there I don't think.

As for roles, I don't see scum choosing tree stump. It's useless to them, and mostly useless to town.

[dargorygel]

So from a statistics point of view, there's no question which 0 or less point role scum would take. If they didn't recruit, they had to take daychat, and then any 3 roles and still have oodles of cash on hand. But nobody has claimed role block yet...so they didn't do that.

So they recruited. In that case, they took fruit vendor (or both doctors). So either kgray is scum and Jamie saved her yesterday (not unlikely), or dargo is scum. There is no other option. So statistics don't matter.

13.
Here is some news. I have never visited nor saved Kgray. I successfully visited Vecna last night, and I know that neither the FV nor the other FH visited him, and I also know that he was not in need of my services.

You appear to claim that this information, that is the fact I didn't save Kgray, mechanically confirms Dargorygel as scum.

Please could you explain this calmly, from start to finish, without using all caps or otherwise getting over-excited? I would greatly appreciate it. If you're on to something, we need to know, but you need to articulate yourself calmly and clearly. I promise that I am listening.

If you are town, what did the scum pick as roles?

They had 80 coins to spend. They could get a recruit for 60.

That leaves them 20 more.

Every role was less than 5 (since one doctor was 5 and the other 15).

So they could have anything they wanted. But if they weren't going to pick 2 doctors, then wouldn't they want a reusable strongman? Scum have so far just been dodging what the doctors have been protecting, but on night 3 they could have given fruit to Maniac (a person who might have been protected).

You asked for a statistics perspective though. So here is something to consider: Whenever someone asks "Wow! You did that really really unlikely thing! (eg guessed the next song on the radio) What are the odds?!" The answer is "100%, because it happened."

So, put yourself in the scum team's mind, back in pregame.

We all did the thought experiment of what we'd have chosen. But we now know more. We know they didn't choose any of the dead roles. We know they didn't choose our roles. So....what were they thinking?! They had a plan. More than anyone else this game, they thought through the roles and interactions for 24 hours together. What did they come up with?

Did they take 2 doctors to prevent any saves and any need for role blocking to kill? Well...that'd require the white flag, but maybe (from my POV...if you're town, then not from your POV).

But if they took some combination of Universal Backup (to prevent town having an overpowered role, and maybe getting lucky themselves) and one doctor, or one tracker (from my POV), or whatever. You're always left with: "what was valuable to them?" And the answer I keep coming back to is "fruit vendor is OP (over powered) as a role. They must have focused on that if not taking both doctors." Now, I'm not sure about the both doctors, maybe they took the white flag deciding that if they got down to 1, they'd have lost.

That said, dargo was a lead wagon D2. He was scummy about his role D3 and 4. He's been making weird votes every day (and not just his OMGUS on me, but things like his recent jump to sheep his supposed biggest scumread). He says things, and then as soon as they're discussed shouts "Look at Bunny, he SUUUUU******KKKKKS!! So I'll vote damo and chaqa!!"

If he is town, then the only other state of the world is you and kgray are scum doctors. You have a white flag. And you two managed to speedwagon ghug yesterday to avoid losing a scum. That's it.

I'll read this carefully tomorrow. If bunny is right, scum is among the docs? Because i am not.

[BunnyGo]

@vecna... Why do you town read me

100% based on our live interactions. I think youre utterly incapable of faking that back-and-forth attempt at solving, and thinking on your feet like that.

roles be damned, ill follow that instinct no matter what

Sorry, can you point me to that exchange?

[BunnyGo]

No wait.
##vote bunny

Vecna. Does this progression from me to damo to chaqa (with damo) to me look townie? I really don't see it, but maybe I need to reread your exchange and see.

@@Flum thoughts on dargo?

[BunnyGo]

<snip>
I'll read this carefully tomorrow. If bunny is right, scum is among the docs? Because i am not.

tldr; Sit down for 10 minutes and think through what the scum were deciding at the beginning that they bypassed other roles and chose from this group of roles. Tell me what you come up with. Because I don't see how they bypass fruit vendor AND the doctors.

[BunnyGo]

@vecna I think the "mechanics" element at the moment is interesting for a gut perspective. It isn't a pure mechanics situation, it is a "what was scum thinking to make a decision" situation. There's only 1 role that wasn't chosen with cohesion in mind. Take some time, and reconstruct their mental states.

[Jamiet99uk]

15.

@BunnyGo:

I am running short of posts so first of all, thank you for all your answers to me. Now I have some follow-up questions which will all be in this post:

1) With regard to your case on Dargorygel, in post #4666, your entire logic appears built on the assumption that Mafia definitely recruited. You start with them spending 60 on a recruit, and then you calculate everything else from there. Can you explain how you are so sure they did this?

2) If you do not have a strong town-read on Chaqa, why were you shouting at people for voting for Chaqa? I remind you there are multiple scum. Even if you have caught Dargorygel that does not automatically mean that any non-Darg votes are not votes for scum. Please once again look back at your reactions to people's Chaqa votes, such as Damo, and explain why you react so strongly? It is not clear to me, hence my assumption that Chaqa must be your top townread - which you've now said is not the case.

3) Your analysis assumes that the scum, in the first 24 hours of the game, had a full understanding that the Fruit Vendor acted as a multi-use strongman due to its ability to interfere with the Faith Healer's save. However, if you read the thread you will see that most of us did not realise the FV worked this way until well into the game. You'll notice multiple people dismissing the FV as a crappy, low-value role.

I myself, despite being a Faith Healer, did not realise the FV was a "protective", and thus had this effect, until a GM clarification (in PM, not the thread), during D2. When putting in my N1 save on Ghug it had not occurred to me in the slightest that the FV could block me.

Therefore, what makes you certain that the Mafia would have worked out the strength of the FV, right at the start of the game, thus making it a dead certainty that they'd pick this role?


4) I agree with you that it is likely one of Kgray and Dargorygel is scum. Taking into account everything I have just said, why are you so sure it must be Dargorygel and not Kgray?

Thanks in advance.

I am now going out for a walk before I start revising for tomorrow's statistics test, but I'll be back well before EoD and I promise to read Bunny's responses with interest.

(Five posts left)

[BunnyGo]

I'm fairly sure they recruited at this point because:

A) They started with 80 coin, and the most expensive 3 remaining roles together are about 25 coin. So they could role block an unlimited number of times if they didn't recruit, and nobody has ever claimed one. Hence, they recruited.

B) I was shouting at damo for voting chaqa when he stated he's just sheeping. It's too early to sheep. Damo said "I think fruit vendor is scummiest role left...but I'll just vote for a viable wagon instead." This is awful. This is really really awful. Vote your reads at this point. Sheep "viability" later.

C) I assume that any 3 remaining players here with 24 hours had a mental state. I'm not saying it was perfect, but it was considered. Even the three least experienced and mechanics oriented players remaining here can read and think. What were they thinking? Did all 3 of them not read the rules? Did they not discuss which of the three cheap roles was valuable? Your (Jamie's) plausible statement you didn't realize that is another small nudge for me that you're not scum and so points me yet again that dargo is.

D) If it is kgray, then everything else is pointing at you. Taking one doctor is meh. Also, you more than anyone else saved her yesterday (which combines with the taking two doctors thing). But yes, I am having trouble concocting a mafia team that isn't: dargo + others or jamie+kgray+white flag + others.

Why are you limiting your posts?

[BunnyGo]

@vecna I think the "mechanics" element at the moment is interesting for a gut perspective. It isn't a pure mechanics situation, it is a "what was scum thinking to make a decision" situation. There's only 1 role that wasn't chosen with cohesion in mind. Take some time, and reconstruct their mental states.

Actually, this should be @all and @@Flum.

Take 10 minutes. Take 15. Do your best to figure out what scum were thinking when they chose among these roles. My most likely answer is Recruit + Fruit Vendor + Universal Backup + ???, but your mileage may vary. My second choice is Recruit + both doctors + ??? + white flag

Post your thoughts here...should be interesting. (Flum, don't post your thoughts here, but do consider your vote....)

[Jamiet99uk]

16. (And then I really am going for this walk because the light will fade soon)

I'm fairly sure they recruited at this point because:

A) They started with 80 coin, and the most expensive 3 remaining roles together are about 25 coin. So they could role block an unlimited number of times if they didn't recruit, and nobody has ever claimed one. Hence, they recruited.

This makes a great deal of sense and you have persuaded me that recruiting was fairly likely. Thank you.

B) I was shouting at damo for voting chaqa when he stated he's just sheeping. It's too early to sheep. Damo said "I think fruit vendor is scummiest role left...but I'll just vote for a viable wagon instead." This is awful. This is really really awful. Vote your reads at this point. Sheep "viability" later.

Damo was not sheeping. He explained his thought process, and I have already pointed out to you that he was not sheeping and had explained it, and he has also mentioned this point again for your benefit. Go back and read. There aren't that many pages or you could iso Damo, or me, to find it in seconds. At this point are repeating an incorrect notion on which you have been corrected, and this bothers me. It's as if you're only reading parts of the thread that have to do with your push on Darg.

Why are you limiting your posts?

I explained this last night, and I'm serious about it.

[dargorygel]

<snip>
I'll read this carefully tomorrow. If bunny is right, scum is among the docs? Because i am not.

tldr; Sit down for 10 minutes and think through what the scum were deciding at the beginning that they bypassed other roles and chose from this group of roles. Tell me what you come up with. Because I don't see how they bypass fruit vendor AND the doctors.

Ok... I think bunny is right.
This IS not the only scum. But it is probably one.
We should vote between me, kgray and Jamie...
Unless someone comes up with a better plan.
Combine gut feelings gas not worked do far.

I'll line out my reasoning on my choice when I have time.
##vote kgray