M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[damo666]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

Ok you are probably right, the most likely split is 2 high 1 low.

Of the highs (Kgray, Jamie, Vecna, Macca, Bunny, Me) I know I am town and I assume you Vecna are town (if you are scum I think town have lost so I'm ignoring this possibility). Pointless voting for Macca (arguably the most attractive role of the group to scum). This leaves bunny and the 2 docs with probably only 1 of them scum. So, from mpov, the odds are the same. However I do see some merit in your argument so I am revising my voting strategy to the following:

I will vote for whichever of the following looks like having the most chance of being top wagon

rdr chaqa bunny kgray darg Jamie (in s -> t order for interest and for use in event of a tie)

I will not vote for Macca, Vecna nor, unsurprisingly, myself.

So based on current vote count

##vote chaqa

[dargorygel]

I don't know if i like damo's answer because I've been townreading him all game, because scumdamo would have dug his heals in, because he makes sense, or because i was already thinking about switching to chaqa...

But ##VOTE CHAQA

Regarding the two docs. If chaqa flips scum, what does that do for his interaction with the two of them?

I'll try to stop in later in this 24 hours, but not very likely.

[dargorygel]

@vecna... Why do you town read me

[Jamiet99uk]

10. Despite my lack of posts I am I understand there is no point voting for Macca, although there is something that worries me.

If Macca is town, his claim is surely true. Fine.

If Macca is the scum governor, wouldn't it be a strong strategy to claim he acted on himself, while in fact using his power on the scum-mate he felt was most likely to be a wagon today?

Have we verified that he definitely used the power in the way that he claims? Vecna did you confirm this somehow? Your earlier posts suggest you were not sure what Macca had, or had not, done.

Otherwise, are we worried about the scenario I am suggesting? If so, is there anything we could do, or is it simply not that much of a risk?

[Jamiet99uk]

10. Despite my lack of posts I am following the thread.

I understand there is no point voting for Macca, although there is something that worries me.

If Macca is town, his claim is surely true. Fine.

If Macca is the scum governor, wouldn't it be a strong strategy to claim he acted on himself, while in fact using his power on the scum-mate he felt was most likely to be a wagon today?

Have we verified that he definitely used the power in the way that he claims? Vecna did you confirm this somehow? Your earlier posts suggest you were not sure what Macca had, or had not, done.

Otherwise, are we worried about the scenario I am suggesting? If so, is there anything we could do, or is it simply not that much of a risk?

10.5 - EBWOP

[Jamiet99uk]

11. Why is Chaqa the lead wagon?

Here are the reasons given by Chaqa voters:

KGRAY:

##vote Chaqa

> No specific reason stated. Kgray listed Chaqa as a scumread last night "especially with Ghug's flip" but did not explain why this confirmed Chaqa as scum.

QUESTION: Kgray, what is your case against Chaqa?
=====================

MACCA:

Oh yeah

##VOTE chaqa

I'm not great on kgray, but chaqa is a the scumiest imo.

> Throws shade on Kgray while voting Chaqa alongside her.

QUESTION: Macca, why is Chaqa "the scummiest"?
=====================

DAMO:

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

Ok you are probably right, the most likely split is 2 high 1 low.

Of the highs (Kgray, Jamie, Vecna, Macca, Bunny, Me) I know I am town and I assume you Vecna are town (if you are scum I think town have lost so I'm ignoring this possibility). Pointless voting for Macca (arguably the most attractive role of the group to scum). This leaves bunny and the 2 docs with probably only 1 of them scum. So, from mpov, the odds are the same. However I do see some merit in your argument so I am revising my voting strategy to the following:

I will vote for whichever of the following looks like having the most chance of being top wagon

rdr chaqa bunny kgray darg Jamie (in s -> t order for interest and for use in event of a tie)

I will not vote for Macca, Vecna nor, unsurprisingly, myself.

So based on current vote count

##vote chaqa

> Damo makes his logic clear and votes in a manner consistent with the logic he expressed. Clarity points for Damo. I have no question for Damo.

========================

DARGORYGEL:

I don't know if i like damo's answer because I've been townreading him all game, because scumdamo would have dug his heals in, because he makes sense, or because i was already thinking about switching to chaqa...

But ##VOTE CHAQA

> This is the opposite of Damo's post, in terms of logic, thought, and clarity. Here we have a random stream of consciousness about Damo's alignment, followed by a hint of a thought about Chaqa, and then a Chaqa vote because of Damo somehow - but with no actual explanation about why Darg was thinking of voting for Chaqa.

QUESTION: Dargorygel, why were you thinking of voting Chaqa, prior to Damo's post?

===========================

Note: I am not defending Chaqa or declaring he's my top townread or anything. But we need to make sure we get today right. One of the Chaqa voters (Damo) has taken the time and effort to make it clear *why* they are voting for Chaqa. The other three Chaqa voters have manifestly failed to do that, and this concerns me slightly. So I would like them each to explain.

(Nine posts remaining, not counting votes or +1's).

[BunnyGo]

just making sure what daykills are actually possible

Brilliant

[BunnyGo]

##vote macca

Bunny looks down his tunnel and sees darg looking back up the tunnel at bunny. I'd vote for him if there is traction.

Why are you voting MACCA after this exchange?

Why is EVERYONE giving you a pass day after day?

Vecna, please please say you see this. Go read his ISO. I'll find time to post it all if people don't. But this is crazy.

[BunnyGo]

##vote macca

Bunny looks down his tunnel and sees darg looking back up the tunnel at bunny. I'd vote for him if there is traction.

Wait, why am I convincing Vecna. @@FLUM Come back and LOOK!! This wagon needs to happen.

[BunnyGo]

Eh, more formal VCA tomorrow, but Bunny and Rivera look super bad off EoD. Vecna and damo too.

Honeslty everyone on the ghug wagon looks bad IMO.

Why do I look bad? For pushing kgray over a cliff? For stopping a tie when Jamie and rdr and Vecna decided to speedwagon ghug? For not realizing that Seth was town playing like he did?

[BunnyGo]

Interesting that youre not even considering that yesterday couldve been TvT chaqa. Just straight to the VCA analysis based on an assumption?

It could have been. If it was T v T v T (keeping Seth there too), then dargo MUST be scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

12. Bunny, there were two pages of activity since your last post. Would it have killed you to read those pages before posting, rather than wiring in shouting and screaming like a moron about Darg's vote for Macca, when his vote has been on Chaqa, and not Macca, for several hours? You just make yourself look an idiot.

Nobody is voting for Macca today. Do you understand why that is?

[BunnyGo]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

So from a statistics point of view, there's no question which 0 or less point role scum would take. If they didn't recruit, they had to take daychat, and then any 3 roles and still have oodles of cash on hand. But nobody has claimed role block yet...so they didn't do that.

So they recruited. In that case, they took fruit vendor (or both doctors). So either kgray is scum and Jamie saved her yesterday (not unlikely), or dargo is scum. There is no other option. So statistics don't matter.

[BunnyGo]

12. Bunny, there were two pages of activity since your last post. Would it have killed you to read those pages before posting, rather than wiring in shouting and screaming like a moron about Darg's vote for Macca, when his vote has been on Chaqa, and not Macca, for several hours? You just make yourself look an idiot.

Nobody is voting for Macca today. Do you understand why that is?

Yes, and do you understand why your concern about him lying and the protecting someone else is no big deal?

[BunnyGo]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

Ok you are probably right, the most likely split is 2 high 1 low.

Of the highs (Kgray, Jamie, Vecna, Macca, Bunny, Me) I know I am town and I assume you Vecna are town (if you are scum I think town have lost so I'm ignoring this possibility). Pointless voting for Macca (arguably the most attractive role of the group to scum). This leaves bunny and the 2 docs with probably only 1 of them scum. So, from mpov, the odds are the same. However I do see some merit in your argument so I am revising my voting strategy to the following:

I will vote for whichever of the following looks like having the most chance of being top wagon

rdr chaqa bunny kgray darg Jamie (in s -> t order for interest and for use in event of a tie)

I will not vote for Macca, Vecna nor, unsurprisingly, myself.

So based on current vote count

##vote chaqa

This isn't even close to EOD. Vote your reads. Help build a wagon. Don't just sheep with over 30 hours to go.

[BunnyGo]

@vecna... Why do you town read me

I want to hear that too...

and @@Flum

[damo666]

10. Despite my lack of posts I am I understand there is no point voting for Macca, although there is something that worries me.

If Macca is town, his claim is surely true. Fine.

If Macca is the scum governor, wouldn't it be a strong strategy to claim he acted on himself, while in fact using his power on the scum-mate he felt was most likely to be a wagon today?

Have we verified that he definitely used the power in the way that he claims? Vecna did you confirm this somehow? Your earlier posts suggest you were not sure what Macca had, or had not, done.

Otherwise, are we worried about the scenario I am suggesting? If so, is there anything we could do, or is it simply not that much of a risk?

We could try and ensure Macca is 2nd wagon?

But tbh if Macca is scum I think the most likely play would be to hold it and claim it used.

[BunnyGo]

@Jamie

Why no questions for damo? It's 30+ hours to EOD. Why is he sheeping now? He made his opinion clear that he wants to vote dargo. Why is he making the dargo wagon look unviable by sitting on chaqa?

Why is dargo instantly sheeping his top scum read to chaqa too?

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

So from a statistics point of view, there's no question which 0 or less point role scum would take. If they didn't recruit, they had to take daychat, and then any 3 roles and still have oodles of cash on hand. But nobody has claimed role block yet...so they didn't do that.

So they recruited. In that case, they took fruit vendor (or both doctors). So either kgray is scum and Jamie saved her yesterday (not unlikely), or dargo is scum. There is no other option. So statistics don't matter.

13.
Here is some news. I have never visited nor saved Kgray. I successfully visited Vecna last night, and I know that neither the FV nor the other FH visited him, and I also know that he was not in need of my services.

You appear to claim that this information, that is the fact I didn't save Kgray, mechanically confirms Dargorygel as scum.

Please could you explain this calmly, from start to finish, without using all caps or otherwise getting over-excited? I would greatly appreciate it. If you're on to something, we need to know, but you need to articulate yourself calmly and clearly. I promise that I am listening.

[BunnyGo]

Macca is off limits today. The only good play would have been to claim to use it and then hold it. Vecna should let us know if he's sure Macca lied. If Macca and Vecna are scum together, that is a bit of mechanics trouble.

But if we try and kill someone else and they are pardoned by the governor, then we get Macca tomorrow. And then worry about the WIFOM of did they protect a townie like that? (Probably not, but still have to think)