Right, but as with the Monty Hall problem, once we catch a scum, the original values would still be accurate. With every scum we catch the chances of catching another scum on it would go up.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:24 pmThis would be completely objective if not for the fact that between 3 and 4 scum would be in the sample group.
M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN
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Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
##VOTE kgray
Vecna can you lead a kill on someone who's not me? I don't trust my reads right now at all.
Vecna can you lead a kill on someone who's not me? I don't trust my reads right now at all.
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Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
True, but it seems very likely the Governor has not used their power yet, for reasons I've already mentioned.ghug wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:26 pmThe governor is also protective.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:23 pmNote: If the other Faith Healer has ever had a "Fail" result (not a "Roleblocked" result) it is likely that their target was also visited by Dargorygel, since my action never *failed* on any of the three nights - therefore I know that I have never visited the same target as either the other FH, or the FV. Perhaps the other FH will find this useful, I just thought I'd mention it.
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Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Not really. Kgray->scum, ghug->town
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
No I guess not. I just completely misread while catching up.
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Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
It's kinda like how we always seem to ignore dead townies' reads.Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:27 pmRight, but as with the Monty Hall problem, once we catch a scum, the original values would still be accurate. With every scum we catch the chances of catching another scum on it would go up.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:24 pmThis would be completely objective if not for the fact that between 3 and 4 scum would be in the sample group.
Teacon most likely was killed due to his reads. I'm gonna go back and look at them
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
I think it's possible it was used last night, and people didn't seem aware of the Fruit Vendor's being able to do this, so I figured it was worth mentioning.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:28 pmTrue, but it seems very likely the Governor has not used their power yet, for reasons I've already mentioned.ghug wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:26 pmThe governor is also protective.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:23 pmNote: If the other Faith Healer has ever had a "Fail" result (not a "Roleblocked" result) it is likely that their target was also visited by Dargorygel, since my action never *failed* on any of the three nights - therefore I know that I have never visited the same target as either the other FH, or the FV. Perhaps the other FH will find this useful, I just thought I'd mention it.
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Yes. But the healer would know that as dargo claims to have held back last night. And healer would know if they tried to save maniac. Technically the governor could have screwed it up too...but meh...Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:26 pm...and if Maniac was also the Fruit recipient, I assume you mean.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:25 pmSince we know who got fruit the first two nights...it didn’t fail.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:23 pmNote: If the other Faith Healer has ever had a "Fail" result (not a "Roleblocked" result) it is likely that their target was also visited by Dargorygel, since my action never *failed* on any of the three nights - therefore I know that I have never visited the same target as either the other FH, or the FV. Perhaps the other FH will find this useful, I just thought I'd mention it.
Only way it fails is if other healer tried to save Maniac last night. In which case I’d strongly consider asking them to claim.
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Eh?
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
It's me, rd, and Bunny. Listening to dead townies is stupid though.Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:29 pmIt's kinda like how we always seem to ignore dead townies' reads.Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:27 pmRight, but as with the Monty Hall problem, once we catch a scum, the original values would still be accurate. With every scum we catch the chances of catching another scum on it would go up.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:24 pm
This would be completely objective if not for the fact that between 3 and 4 scum would be in the sample group.
Teacon most likely was killed due to his reads. I'm gonna go back and look at them
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Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Ok fair enough. I had actually missed out on the Governor being able to interfere with my action, until the Governor started being talked about today. It's reasonable of you to mention it, yes.ghug wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:30 pmI think it's possible it was used last night, and people didn't seem aware of the Fruit Vendor's being able to do this, so I figured it was worth mentioning.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:28 pmTrue, but it seems very likely the Governor has not used their power yet, for reasons I've already mentioned.
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Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
I mean it's incredibly unlikely the Governor visited *Maniac* last night.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:31 pmYes. But the healer would know that as dargo claims to have held back last night. And healer would know if they tried to save maniac. Technically the governor could have screwed it up too...but meh...Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:26 pm...and if Maniac was also the Fruit recipient, I assume you mean.
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Would have been a great way to keep him from demanding we daykill him againJamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:36 pmI mean it's incredibly unlikely the Governor visited *Maniac* last night.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:31 pmYes. But the healer would know that as dargo claims to have held back last night. And healer would know if they tried to save maniac. Technically the governor could have screwed it up too...but meh...Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:26 pm
...and if Maniac was also the Fruit recipient, I assume you mean.

Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Never mind. Dumb Bunny misread something. Was responding to kgray point it out.
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
I agree. So if the other healer DID try to save maniac, they should probably claim so we can kill dargo and be done with the scum having an unlimited strongman.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:36 pmI mean it's incredibly unlikely the Governor visited *Maniac* last night.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:31 pmYes. But the healer would know that as dargo claims to have held back last night. And healer would know if they tried to save maniac. Technically the governor could have screwed it up too...but meh...Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:26 pm
...and if Maniac was also the Fruit recipient, I assume you mean.
If they didn’t try to save maniac, then they probably shouldn’t claim. And dargo goes back to probably being a mistaken town that I’m tunneling too hard.
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Jamie, if you're wrong about me, who do you think is scum?
If you're right about me, who are my teammates?
Is it fair to use pushing you on a lie to scumread you now when the lie was about something very obvious in a previous game, and you yourself didn't find it a compelling reason to scumread me early on?
If you're right about me, who are my teammates?
Is it fair to use pushing you on a lie to scumread you now when the lie was about something very obvious in a previous game, and you yourself didn't find it a compelling reason to scumread me early on?
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Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
It's not just your lie. You seemed keen to use any short-cuts to push a wagon on me, however spurious they were, because I'm often an easy mis-wagon. Accusing me of role-fishing when I wasn't. Constantly goading me. Trying to read hidden implications and agendas into perfectly straightforward posts I made. The whole thing as a whole. Sure you can say this is an "OMGUS" reaction from me but my direct experience of being on the receiving end of your behaviour is part of the information available to me in this game, and it's therefore a legitimate part of my read on you.ghug wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:43 pmJamie, if you're wrong about me, who do you think is scum?
If you're right about me, who are my teammates?
Is it fair to use pushing you on a lie to scumread you now when the lie was about something very obvious in a previous game, and you yourself didn't find it a compelling reason to scumread me early on?
The second serious cause of suspicion, as I explained, was multiple people including you in their scumreads but being very reluctant to vote you. If that's indicative of your team mates then the biggest culprit today would be Damo. I can see you being scum with Rdrivera if it turns out that he is in fact scum.
The really puzzling element of the jigsaw is Chaqa. If he was your scum buddy, would he really have sucked up to you so consistently all game, like the adoring puppydog he is? That's the 64 trillion Zimbabwean dollar question.
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
Vote Count:
kgray (3) Chaqa, rdrivera2005, ghug
ghug (3) Jamiet99uk, Vecna, dargorygel
seth24c (3) damo666, Macca573, BunnyGo
Chaqa (1) kgray
Jamiet99uk (1) Fluminator
Currently No one will be eliminated from this reality TV show. Seth needs to vote still.
$3.04 left of D4.
kgray (3) Chaqa, rdrivera2005, ghug
ghug (3) Jamiet99uk, Vecna, dargorygel
seth24c (3) damo666, Macca573, BunnyGo
Chaqa (1) kgray
Jamiet99uk (1) Fluminator
Currently No one will be eliminated from this reality TV show. Seth needs to vote still.
$3.04 left of D4.
Re: M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread
I see OMGUS as a legitimate town reaction, and I think the scumreading me and not voting for me is a decent connection to draw. I don't like most of the other reasons though. If you're easy to miswagon, it's because you're often scumread by townies as town. I'm consistently a goader as town. I felt like you were role fishing, so I called you on it. Maybe I was wrong, but I don't think it's scummy to point out. The "hidden agenda" bit seems to boil down to the one post today about rd, which is both making a mountain out of a molehill, and IMO was a perfectly reasonable conclusion to draw when you said I hadn't answered the whole question.Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:52 pmIt's not just your lie. You seemed keen to use any short-cuts to push a wagon on me, however spurious they were, because I'm often an easy mis-wagon. Accusing me of role-fishing when I wasn't. Constantly goading me. Trying to read hidden implications and agendas into perfectly straightforward posts I made. The whole thing as a whole. Sure you can say this is an "OMGUS" reaction from me but my direct experience of being on the receiving end of your behaviour is part of the information available to me in this game, and it's therefore a legitimate part of my read on you.ghug wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:43 pmJamie, if you're wrong about me, who do you think is scum?
If you're right about me, who are my teammates?
Is it fair to use pushing you on a lie to scumread you now when the lie was about something very obvious in a previous game, and you yourself didn't find it a compelling reason to scumread me early on?
The second serious cause of suspicion, as I explained, was multiple people including you in their scumreads but being very reluctant to vote you. If that's indicative of your team mates then the biggest culprit today would be Damo. I can see you being scum with Rdrivera if it turns out that he is in fact scum.
The really puzzling element of the jigsaw is Chaqa. If he was your scum buddy, would he really have sucked up to you so consistently all game, like the adoring puppydog he is? That's the 64 trillion Zimbabwean dollar question.
I'm not as convinced as others that you're town, but it's seeming pretty likely, and you're likely to have sway, which means we really need you to not want to kill me today.
I'd like to hear your answers on your other reads.
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