M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[Maniac]

Kouncil Comment
Please be careful!
We don't need the numbers. But Rdriveria needs to be town jesus and lead to to a scum REDACT D2 or we'll have to kill him D3. Sound harsh, but he is likely to die before end game anyway. If he is scum and we kill him it will emphasize that Mafia have recruited I think.

My sincere apologies

[seth24c]

Seth, it seems as if your read on Flum developed very quickly here:

What are you doing? Regretting you didn't spring for daychat?

Wondering if flum is getting pressure in the day chat to stop advocating for a massclaim.

This is the first indication I see from you that you scumread Flum. What drove you to think Flum was scum at this point?

The first indication from you that I see that you scumread Jamie is here:

All three of the top wagons have been on my radar. Can't decide whether flums reaction test was malicious or just a bad idea.

You never specified further on Jamie, but you clearly have your eye on him. Did you make any effort into reading Jamie, or learn anything out of what you read of him? I don't see much from you on the matter.

The first indication that you have teacon in your sights also comes in that post, and yet you never give any information about your thoughts on teacon. You have not asked him any questions, and you actually have never even said his name or spoke with him. How was he on your radar?

Out of the three I have only played with flum before so i’ve found that in general I watch those I haven’t played before more closely to try to understand how they play. Jamie, flum and teacon were all wagons more or less throughout the day so I had been watching to see how that progressed.

I don’t remember the exact posts but flum had a couple posts that reminded me of how he played in the first iteration of the toons game where he was mafia and I was traitor. So I had some suspicion of him then, when he proposed the massclaim I felt like he was fishing for a reaction from me on my role and him backing off like he did made me think he may have been trying to opportunistically draw out some roles. Then he disappeared and near day end there was a lot of people seemingly trying to push people towards the Jamie wagon but not jumping on themselves, I thought that if flum were scum those could be his teammates trying to save him without actually being held responsible for saving flum if Jamie was town. I’ll have to look back and see who that was, I think maybe rdr and a couple others?

Jamie and teacon has both caught my eye with their play styles and I had initially been pretty suspicious of Jamie but the way the eod played out I thought made Jamie lean more town to than flum did. Teacon’s early posts didn’t sit particularly well with me but I didn’t feel as strongly about him as I did flum. I also felt that flum vs Jamie gave more information at the end of day, if I had it to do over I may have voted teacon first then switched later to get more information.

[dargorygel]

Kouncil Comment
Please be careful!
We don't need the numbers. But Rdriveria needs to be town jesus and lead to to a scum REDACT D2 or we'll have to kill him D3. Sound harsh, but he is likely to die before end game anyway. If he is scum and we kill him it will emphasize that Mafia have recruited I think.

My sincere apologies

My sincere forbearance

[rdrivera2005]

[quote="Maniac " post_id=185624 time=1603998606 user_id=156]
[quote=teacon7 post_id=185621 time=1603998209 user_id=100]
[quote=bozotheclown post_id=185617 time=1603996008 user_id=222]
Not choosing Restless means they are more likely to have recruited and would be looking to take some cheap roles.
[/quote]

Not to be a broken record here, but it seems like you'd agree that:
-since the PV is advantageous because it's cheap, and
-since it's likely that the mafia recruited, they'd need $, and
-since the PV is useful for explaining why someone who is normally NK'd isn't NKd,
...it's statistically more likely that the PV is a mafia if they're a player who usually dies early.


@all - Maybe you don't agree with what I'm saying, but let's play a game. What values would you give these variables?

let c = _____ = "how much the PV role helps scum"
let e = _____ = probability that scum chose to recruit
let m(rdrivera) = _____ = probability that the player dies early (either due to fearNK as town, or due to fearDK as scum)
[/quote]

We don't need the numbers. But Rdriveria needs to be town jesus and lead to to a scum lynch D2 or we'll have to kill him D3. Sound harsh, but he is likely to die before end game anyway. If he is scum and we kill him it will emphasize that Mafia have recruited I think.
[/quote]

Exactly. I would have never chosen PV to myself. It's almost certain town will decide to daykill me at some point (hope it isn't D3 as Maniac suggested) because scum will never spend a NK on me and my role is useless.
I think that scum could choose PV for a player that hardly make the final days. I have been in lylo more then once as scum (and as town too).

[seth24c]

Are there any dissenters to feeling similar to RDR, about VCA around Flum being difficult to generate any information from?

RDR, before I get back into reading previous posts, are there particular reasons for Seth and Teacon being on your scum reads?

Is Bozo out of character for you?

Teacon for the same reasons I voted him on D1 and his vote on Flum didn't make me to scumread him less.

Seth vote on Flum is the other I don't feel organic, and I don't get any townie moments from him.

Kgray vote also makes me wonder a bit, but I suppose her feelings about last game could have played a part.

But like I said, the VCA isn't great with a large wagon. Townie points for Bo for tryng to shake things up.

You’re giving kgray a pass because you think last game played a part in her choice? That seems like an unreasonable way to justify a vote.

[teacon7]

I agree the PV is a role the mafia likely considered, and I can see why a player like rdrivera might want it, but I would have chose neighborizer and/or gladiator over PV for 0 cost. I will go with c=0.2, e=0.9, and m=0.5.

Ennh, well there's where we disagree, but this is pretty subjective territory. If I want to pursue this, I'd want look at the equations I built to see if there's a better set of questions to ask. likely not worth it, now that we have more data to work with.

In any case, here is what it spit out for your inputs:

1. odds that rdriv started as scum and intentionally adopted the PV role
1.67%

2. odds that rdriv started as town, wasn't recruited, and randed the PV role afterwards
5.00%

3. odds that rdriv started as town, was recruited, and randed the PV role afterwards.
2.50%

[kgray]

Yes, but nobody was pushing him or seemed to be suspicious of him at that point except for me and Rivera, who were already on him. So even though he was close in vote count, it didn't seem like he was actually an option for the daykill.

So that was part of why I left, and the other part was because of his more detailed explanation of why he voted for Rivera. Prior to that I thought it was only because Rivera was the vanilla role, and teacon decided that he'd choose that role as scum so therefore scum chose that role. But then he gave more reasons for why he thought it made sense for it to be Rivera specifically. I don't think they're great reasons, but it made me much less certain that he was just targeting the role rather than the player.

That's fair context. What about Jamie drew you to him, other than the fact that he was the one dude left you didn't townread?

Do you mean what about Flum drew me to vote for him? Yeah it was more about having stronger feelings that Jamie was town. I didn't like the reasons Jamie was being pushed (including Flum's case) and especially when he returned from EOD I didn't see much that was different from town!Jamie.

[ghug]

Kouncil Comment
Please be careful!
We don't need the numbers. But Rdriveria needs to be town jesus and lead to to a scum REDACT D2 or we'll have to kill him D3. Sound harsh, but he is likely to die before end game anyway. If he is scum and we kill him it will emphasize that Mafia have recruited I think.

This is a really weird comment.

[ghug]

Kouncil Comment
Please be careful!
We don't need the numbers. But Rdriveria needs to be town jesus and lead to to a scum REDACT D2 or we'll have to kill him D3. Sound harsh, but he is likely to die before end game anyway. If he is scum and we kill him it will emphasize that Mafia have recruited I think.

This is a really weird comment.

Oh, it was a Maniac comment. I'm slow.

[ghug]

Are there any dissenters to feeling similar to RDR, about VCA around Flum being difficult to generate any information from?

RDR, before I get back into reading previous posts, are there particular reasons for Seth and Teacon being on your scum reads?

Is Bozo out of character for you?

Teacon for the same reasons I voted him on D1 and his vote on Flum didn't make me to scumread him less.

Seth vote on Flum is the other I don't feel organic, and I don't get any townie moments from him.

Kgray vote also makes me wonder a bit, but I suppose her feelings about last game could have played a part.

But like I said, the VCA isn't great with a large wagon. Townie points for Bo for tryng to shake things up.

You’re giving kgray a pass because you think last game played a part in her choice? That seems like an unreasonable way to justify a vote.

So you think town or scum are more likely to do something like that?

[seth24c]

Are there any dissenters to feeling similar to RDR, about VCA around Flum being difficult to generate any information from?

RDR, before I get back into reading previous posts, are there particular reasons for Seth and Teacon being on your scum reads?

Is Bozo out of character for you?

Teacon for the same reasons I voted him on D1 and his vote on Flum didn't make me to scumread him less.

Seth vote on Flum is the other I don't feel organic, and I don't get any townie moments from him.

Kgray vote also makes me wonder a bit, but I suppose her feelings about last game could have played a part.

But like I said, the VCA isn't great with a large wagon. Townie points for Bo for tryng to shake things up.

Except that he didn't really try to shake things up. He only made that vote once Flum was well ahead.

Yeah this is a good point. It was possible though if a flum voter had switched to Jamie. I still think it was unlikely the wagons were going to get much closer unless there was a claim by flum. Props to flum for not claiming as his role being the first to go will very likely did help town hugely, especially if the backup role wasn’t chosen by scum.

[ghug]

Yes, but nobody was pushing him or seemed to be suspicious of him at that point except for me and Rivera, who were already on him. So even though he was close in vote count, it didn't seem like he was actually an option for the daykill.

So that was part of why I left, and the other part was because of his more detailed explanation of why he voted for Rivera. Prior to that I thought it was only because Rivera was the vanilla role, and teacon decided that he'd choose that role as scum so therefore scum chose that role. But then he gave more reasons for why he thought it made sense for it to be Rivera specifically. I don't think they're great reasons, but it made me much less certain that he was just targeting the role rather than the player.

That's fair context. What about Jamie drew you to him, other than the fact that he was the one dude left you didn't townread?

Do you mean what about Flum drew me to vote for him? Yeah it was more about having stronger feelings that Jamie was town. I didn't like the reasons Jamie was being pushed (including Flum's case) and especially when he returned from EOD I didn't see much that was different from town!Jamie.

I thought you made a point of agreeing with half of my arguments on Jamie.

[teacon7]

We don't need the numbers. But Rdriveria needs to be town jesus and lead to to a scum lynch D2 or we'll have to kill him D3. Sound harsh, but he is likely to die before end game anyway. If he is scum and we kill him it will emphasize that Mafia have recruited I think.

Exactly. I would have never chosen PV to myself. It's almost certain town will decide to daykill me at some point (hope it isn't D3 as Maniac suggested) because scum will never spend a NK on me and my role is useless.
I think that scum could choose PV for a player that hardly make the final days. I have been in lylo more then once as scum (and as town too).

I think we're mostly coming to different conclusions about this because we're starting with different assumptions.

I'm wondering whether I'm reading an apparent contradiction between the underlined quotes above and below. Is this just me not getting what you're saying? Who is the PV good for? People who live long, or people who don't live long?

As scum I would not assign the Public Vanilla to a fellow scum player that will be an usual NK choice as Vecna or Durga or even me for example, because it will raise many flags if the player is alive after some nights.

So... if you were on the scumteam and thought you were going to be DK'd ANYWAY, wouldn't you want the marginal benefits that the PV might provide? Anyway, I think Maniac is right. We should all, especially rdrivera, be more like Jesus.

[seth24c]

Teacon for the same reasons I voted him on D1 and his vote on Flum didn't make me to scumread him less.

Seth vote on Flum is the other I don't feel organic, and I don't get any townie moments from him.

Kgray vote also makes me wonder a bit, but I suppose her feelings about last game could have played a part.

But like I said, the VCA isn't great with a large wagon. Townie points for Bo for tryng to shake things up.

You’re giving kgray a pass because you think last game played a part in her choice? That seems like an unreasonable way to justify a vote.

So you think town or scum are more likely to do something like that?

Rdr justifying kgray’s vote that way seems more like a scummy thing to do. I need to look back to see if that is why kgray herself said she was voting flum.

[kgray]

In conclusion, the majority of responses included some form of town telling, so I think some of these responses include fake town tells. In my opinion, some of the more questionable of these responses were those of seth, Hamilton, ghug, kgray, and bo_sox.

Of these people, you said that me, seth, and Hamilton (and Chaqa, I see you meant to include here) gave incomplete responses. You are calling every "incomplete" response questionable. Yet you also included Flum's response as an example of a known town response, but did not point out that his answer was also incomplete.

You seem to be drawing the conclusion that it is scummy to not give a detailed analysis of the mafia mechanics and their best move. I understand the assumption that scum would try to imply they didn't do this, but it is still unreasonable to expect town to do it. Scumreading people for this reason is pretty flawed, in general and also as proven with Flum's flip.

[teacon7]

Something I haven't seen discussed yet:

Final Vote Count:
Fluminator (9) BunnyGo, Jamiet99uk, dargorygel, damo666, kgray, seth24c, Maniac, teacon7, 'The Double Vote'
Jamiet99uk (5) ghug, Fluminator, Chaqa, Hamilton Brian, bo_sox48
teacon7 (2) Vecna, rdrivera2005
ghug (1) Macca573
BunnyGo (1) bozotheclown

The doublevoter is in this pool:
BunnyGo,
Jamiet99uk,
dargorygel,
damo666,
kgray,
seth24c,
Maniac,
teacon7,

I don't know whether we need to find that person or really talk about it, but whomever you are, please work to avoid ties.

[Jamiet99uk]

Something I haven't seen discussed yet:

Final Vote Count:
Fluminator (9) BunnyGo, Jamiet99uk, dargorygel, damo666, kgray, seth24c, Maniac, teacon7, 'The Double Vote'
Jamiet99uk (5) ghug, Fluminator, Chaqa, Hamilton Brian, bo_sox48
teacon7 (2) Vecna, rdrivera2005
ghug (1) Macca573
BunnyGo (1) bozotheclown

The doublevoter is in this pool:
BunnyGo,
Jamiet99uk,
dargorygel,
damo666,
kgray,
seth24c,
Maniac,
teacon7,

I don't know whether we need to find that person or really talk about it, but whomever you are, please work to avoid ties.

I have a theory about who it is, but I'm not sure whether or not it's a good thing to talk about either.

[Maniac]

The scum roles are random;y distributed aren't they, once they have been selected and another scum recruited (if that happened)

[Maniac]

bonus points to dargorygil for stating the bleeding obvious.

The later joiners are less likely to be the double voter.

[teacon7]

The scum roles are random;y distributed aren't they, once they have been selected and another scum recruited (if that happened)

See this post:

%%CALLGM

Are the mafia roles assigned to them randomly from the group they bought (as per the link in the setup), or do they get to choose who gets what?

GM Note:
The Mafia assigned their purchased roles to specific people.