M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[rdrivera2005]

I am 10 pages behind and with a lot of work.

I will drop a ##vote Teacon as a placeholder as he was acting scummy.

I hope to have time later.

[Jamiet99uk]

##call gm does mafia get a nightly allowance?

I'm not the GM but this has been discussed. They get no "new" funds. The only way they can generate credit is by using the options that create credit in the setup, such as creating bulletproofs, etc. They have no ongoing new income.

This was a much better response than my wordy one...

Happy to be of assistance.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamie - I'm uncomfortable talking about things that mafia can presently act on or do, lest I bring up some idea that they haven't thought of. I'm fine talking about options that are no longer available to them, since doing so can't possibly help them anymore.

So my answer to bozo was about what roles I'd have picked, but not what sorts of actions I'd take n1 onward.

If I were scum, I'd likely have taken two investigative roles, and one of: PV/fruit vendor, depending on who the team was. I wouldn't have recruited.

Okay, thank you. This is a reasonable explanation. The way you worded your response seemed a little weird initially, but ok.

Why not recruit? Surely having an extra team member is a big boost.

[bozotheclown]

So far only rdrivera, damo, and dargorygel have answered my question with a complete answer without giving some indication that they had not carefully consider it. Each presented a different strategy that seems reasonable (dargorygel's response was the same as mine):

rdrivera: recruit, select cheap roles, leave money for RBs.

dargorygel: recruit, day chat, select cheap roles.

damo: do not recruit, select strong roles, leave money for RBs.

[Jamiet99uk]

So far only rdrivera, damo, and dargorygel have answered my question with a complete answer without giving some indication that they had not carefully consider it. Each presented a different strategy that seems reasonable (dargorygel's response was the same as mine):

rdrivera: recruit, select cheap roles, leave money for RBs.

dargorygel: recruit, day chat, select cheap roles.

damo: do not recruit, select strong roles, leave money for RBs.

What is your hypothesis?

[bozotheclown]

So far only rdrivera, damo, and dargorygel have answered my question with a complete answer without giving some indication that they had not carefully consider it. Each presented a different strategy that seems reasonable (dargorygel's response was the same as mine):

rdrivera: recruit, select cheap roles, leave money for RBs.

dargorygel: recruit, day chat, select cheap roles.

damo: do not recruit, select strong roles, leave money for RBs.

What is your hypothesis?

Are you asking what I think the mafia did? I think it likely they recruited and avoided going negative by selecting cheap roles.

That is another potential argument for mass claiming. We could mass claim, DK the double voter and/or restless, and if they flip town, we would know there are likely 4 scum, 3 with cheap roles. If they flip scum, even better.

[ghug]

I was the only one who correctly read you last game. I'll give you a couple days to obvtown before I come after you.

you probably missed it, but kgray tricked me into thinking it was you i was talking to in jailed chat lol, so i was extra nice to you. and then she pushed my lynch for it

Do not use that word
No no no no no no no
Redact thyself, Vec

[Jamiet99uk]

So far only rdrivera, damo, and dargorygel have answered my question with a complete answer without giving some indication that they had not carefully consider it. Each presented a different strategy that seems reasonable (dargorygel's response was the same as mine):

rdrivera: recruit, select cheap roles, leave money for RBs.

dargorygel: recruit, day chat, select cheap roles.

damo: do not recruit, select strong roles, leave money for RBs.

What is your hypothesis?

Are you asking what I think the mafia did? I think it likely they recruited and avoided going negative by selecting cheap roles.

That is another potential argument for mass claiming. We could mass claim, DK the double voter and/or restless, and if they flip town, we would know there are likely 4 scum, 3 with cheap roles. If they flip scum, even better.

I asked you what your hypothesis is, or was.

Surveys are conducted to find information. Good surveys are conducted to find information which may help to demonstrate, or disprove, the likelihood of a hypothesis.

What I really want to know is, what were you trying to find out when you launched your survey, what did you discover, and what conclusions may be drawn from this?

You seem to be drawing some conclusions, on the basis of four of the responses you received, but one of those is yourself, so must be discounted, leaving three. 3/18 is a very small sample. On what basis can you use this sample group to draw any meaningful conclusions? More importantly, you are using the responses of a sample of three people to draw inferences about what the Mafia did, and you think you are able to conclude that your result is "likely". Your conclusion matches most closely the responses of Rdrivera and Dargorygel.

This imples that you think either:

(a) Rdrivera and Dargorygel are scum, and gave honest answers,
or
(b) Rdrivera and Dargorygel's answers, while not from scum, are highly representative of the answers scum would have given.

Discuss.

[ghug]

It looks like I have some catching up to do. That happens when you sleep. I will do so from my last post, Vecna style, so excuse me if I say anything that then becomes redundant when I read the next page, but I'm working fast.

Scum scum scum scum scum
Scummy scummy scummy scum
Don't forget to vote!

[teacon7]

Okay, thank you. This is a reasonable explanation. The way you worded your response seemed a little weird initially, but ok.

Why not recruit? Surely having an extra team member is a big boost.

I wouldn't have recruited because I'd want the $ for other things. Whenever you get there, you'll find the crazy theory/strategy I sent to the godthread. I thought they could rolecop 15 times at once on N1 (which is illegal, as it turns out, but it's what I'd have tried to do.)

As for non-recruiting, it makes scum a smaller target in the lynch pool. yeah, the team gets to mylo one day faster. But if maf has encryption and town has gladiator, that doesn't seem like too big a deal.

contrast no-recruit:
d1 15 3
d2 13 3
d3 11 3
d4 09 3
d5 07 3
d6 05 3 mylo

with what happens when they recruit:
d1 14 4
d2 12 4
d3 10 4
d4 08 4
d5 06 4 mylo

Without investigative roles, it's more likely that town tears itself apart than anything else. Two investigative roles + something protective. I didn't think about it much more than that because I didn't roll scum.

(sidebar: what do we call lylo / mylo now? also what's the new word for ML? It's double plus ungood for me to switch to new words if i can't make them acronymns lol)

[Jamiet99uk]

It looks like I have some catching up to do. That happens when you sleep. I will do so from my last post, Vecna style, so excuse me if I say anything that then becomes redundant when I read the next page, but I'm working fast.

Scum scum scum scum scum
Scummy scummy scummy scum
Don't forget to vote!

There is nothing scummy about that post.
You are a pest and if you're town, you're bad at this game.
Please say something intelligent, or don't post at all.
Thank you.

[ghug]

I'll change my vote from HR, since it was only there because he surprised me by his silence.

I am going to pick a low hanging fruit, though. Low posters early on are in my scum pool.

Chaqa also had some odd things going on D1. He needs some chipotle, or he is scum.

##VOTE CHAQA

Had? It's still day one
What sorts of odd things see you?
Why are unvotes bad?

[Jamiet99uk]

I'll change my vote from HR, since it was only there because he surprised me by his silence.

I am going to pick a low hanging fruit, though. Low posters early on are in my scum pool.

Chaqa also had some odd things going on D1. He needs some chipotle, or he is scum.

##VOTE CHAQA

Had? It's still day one
What sorts of odd things see you?
Why are unvotes bad?

What is the relationship between this highlighted question and the post you quoted, which does not mention unvotes?

[ghug]

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

It's like Monty Hall
You're computing from the start
But we've learned new things

Ghug is correct here. Teacon is commenting as if we're still in the "pre-game".

Way down in New Orleans, yeah.
I met this old lady,
she said she'd teach me 'bout Voodoo
she said she knew about Voodoo (Voodoo?)
she said she'd teach me 'bout Voodoo
she said she knew about Voodoo (Voodoo!)

You drive me crazy
With that boogieoogieoo
gieoogieoogie

[ghug]

I hate to give up the tell on Jamiet because then he can rectify it in future games. But he's still scum.

Oogie oogie oo
Gie. You drive me crazy with
That boogie boogie

[ghug]

I hate to give up the tell on Jamiet because then he can rectify it in future games. But he's still scum.

You are incorrect. Will you buy me a pizza if I'm town?

Stoooooop
Stoooooooooop
Stoooooop

Also Jamie didn't
Offer to buy Flum pizza
Because he is scum

[Donny Dude]

Vote Count 1.4
Fluminator (4) BunnyGo Jamiet99uk dargorygel damo666
teacon7(3) Vecna kgray rdrivera2005
Jamiet99uk (2) ghug Fluminator
dargorygel (1) bozotheclown
Vecna (1) bo_sox48
bo_sox48 (1) Maniac
Unvote (1) Hamilton Brian
rdrivera2005 (1) teacon7
ghug (1) Macca573

Not Voting
Chaqa Hellenic Riot seth24c
There are 4 hours and 10 minutes left in Day.

[Jamiet99uk]

I hate to give up the tell on Jamiet because then he can rectify it in future games. But he's still scum.

Oogie oogie oo
Gie. You drive me crazy with
That boogie boogie

Am I your top scumread, yes?

Who do you think I am scum with, why do you think that, and what level of confidence do you have in these reads?

[Jamiet99uk]

I hate to give up the tell on Jamiet because then he can rectify it in future games. But he's still scum.

You are incorrect. Will you buy me a pizza if I'm town?

Stoooooop
Stoooooooooop
Stoooooop

Also Jamie didn't
Offer to buy Flum pizza
Because he is scum

I will buy Fluminator a pizza if you are scum.

Happy?

[bozotheclown]

What is your hypothesis?

Are you asking what I think the mafia did? I think it likely they recruited and avoided going negative by selecting cheap roles.

That is another potential argument for mass claiming. We could mass claim, DK the double voter and/or restless, and if they flip town, we would know there are likely 4 scum, 3 with cheap roles. If they flip scum, even better.

I asked you what your hypothesis is, or was.

Surveys are conducted to find information. Good surveys are conducted to find information which may help to demonstrate, or disprove, the likelihood of a hypothesis.

What I really want to know is, what were you trying to find out when you launched your survey, what did you discover, and what conclusions may be drawn from this?

You seem to be drawing some conclusions, on the basis of four of the responses you received, but one of those is yourself, so must be discounted, leaving three. 3/18 is a very small sample. On what basis can you use this sample group to draw any meaningful conclusions? More importantly, you are using the responses of a sample of three people to draw inferences about what the Mafia did, and you think you are able to conclude that your result is "likely". Your conclusion matches most closely the responses of Rdrivera and Dargorygel.

This imples that you think either:

(a) Rdrivera and Dargorygel are scum, and gave honest answers,
or
(b) Rdrivera and Dargorygel's answers, while not from scum, are highly representative of the answers scum would have given.

Discuss.

The primary purpose of the survey was to see who would respond in a way that implied they had not already carefully considered the best options for the mafia, which in my opinion 10 players did. You have to look at those responses individually to form an opinion about which ones are more likely to be true and which ones are more likely to be fake.