M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[BunnyGo]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

X is declared Public Vanilla (PV)

Let g be probability mafia assign PV to one of the original 3 mafia
Let r be the probability mafia recruit

Then:

Probability X is original scum = g

Probability X is recruit is (1-g)r/15

Probability X is town is (1-g)r14/15+(1-g)(1-r)

Putting some guesses for g and r in...

Say g is 10% and r is 90% we get

X is original scum 10%
X is recruited scum 5.4%
X is town 84.6%.

I think most people would agree g<.5 and r>.5 so rdrivera is likely town.

Do you see what you did, teacon?

[seth24c]

wtf you were summit's teammate and you weren't even pushing his wagon. This is fake news.

Lol I love it.

You love it that Ghug used a lie to try to push a wagon on me.

What does this tell you about Ghug?

I love it that kgray said what I thought when I saw ghug’s post. Doesn’t tell me much about ghug yet though.

[seth24c]

I'm uncomfortable answering this question, as I don't want to give scum any ideas. I did send the godthread a message about this early on... you'll see I was mistaken about some mechanics. However, I will say that I would not have recruited anyone, and I would have picked roles so as to deny town investigative powers.

To clarify, you've been asking people questions. Firstly, about what they'd do with the $90. Second, what they'd do if they were on a scumteam with XYZ. What train of thought led you to ask one question and then the other?

The mafia already made their choices, how could you be giving them ideas? Does telling me what 3 roles you would have picked give anything away to the mafia?

See this is what Vecna and I noticed about Teacon behaving as if we were still in the "pre game" state.

It's very weird. Glad others can see it too.

Teacon could you explain? You understand the concept of the passage of time, yes?

Do you think it is alignment indicative?

[BunnyGo]

Ok I'm caught up.

Thoughts:

Ghug is annoying and was using a lie to try to push my wagon, so my question remains, is he scum, or bad town?

Teacon is being super weird and even though I didn't find Bozo's survey a useful idea in the first place, Teacon's response to it was very puzzling indeed and I'd like Teacon to explain this.

Fluminator advocating a mass claim, in this setup, because he claims he's desperate to find the Tree Stump, is very suspect. I do not see how outing everyone's role to the Mafia is anything other than a dreadful idea. Is Fluminator scum, or a crazy person?

I agree with this post.

The craziest thing about Flum's proposal is in the BEST CASE we catch 1 scum. 1 scum with a sh*te power. And that's only if Flum is correct about them choosing tree stump (granted, it's not a bad guess). I wouldn't even be surprised here if FLUM is the tree stump scum and looking forward to this.

[BunnyGo]

You still here, seth?

[seth24c]

Provided my team was more confident than I was (quite likely), then more roles would have been available. I can do a re-do, and account for debt if you'd like?

OK, I would like to know what you think would have been optimal for the mafia.

90
Recruit (10)
Restless spirit (-25)
[those two are good, the rest I picked just to fill remaining space with minimal cost]
Fruit vendor (-24) [I thought I read somewhere that you could "sell fruit" or something; it was a source of income]
Neighborizer (-24) [cheap, and seems to do something]
Public Vanilla (-24) [also cheap, and it's not bad]
Voyeur (-26) [cheap]

A lot of this is just to get those first two, which, in my opinion, are the coolest.

5 roles lol. I really don’t know what to make of this at this point.

[seth24c]

Still here bunny. How goes it.

[Jamiet99uk]

Take a square piece of paper, fold it in half 4 times and cut along resultant folds. Write the 16 names on the 16 same size squares of paper and screw each one up into a little scrunchy ball. Put the 16 little scrunchies into a pot with a lid and shake up and down. Remove lid and select 2 scrunchies, open and read names. This is what Bozo did.

How many press agents does Bozo need?

Even more amusing since Bozo confirmed he did not do this.

But I think Damo's post had a hint of sarcasm to it.

[Jamiet99uk]

See this is what Vecna and I noticed about Teacon behaving as if we were still in the "pre game" state.

It's very weird. Glad others can see it too.

Teacon could you explain? You understand the concept of the passage of time, yes?

Do you think it is alignment indicative?

I don't know what it is.

But I always think weird things, that don't appear to make sense, should be investigated. Because sometimes understanding another player's thought process can be revealing. So, I would like Teacon to comment.

[Hamilton Brian]

@Vecna, given I parked the vote on Jamie last night after they suggested I do so while pushing the endhammer, it's as valid a vote as me dropping one on you. No reason, too lazy to move it off. Meaningless. It was dropped to drop, and if I am substantially certain, I'll move it off.

HB you have a little different style this game. Intentional?

Not really; just short on time so if I can't post much I want my posts to count for something.

[Jamiet99uk]

Fluminator advocating a mass claim, in this setup, because he claims he's desperate to find the Tree Stump, is very suspect. I do not see how outing everyone's role to the Mafia is anything other than a dreadful idea. Is Fluminator scum, or a crazy person?

I agree with this post.

The craziest thing about Flum's proposal is in the BEST CASE we catch 1 scum. 1 scum with a sh*te power. And that's only if Flum is correct about them choosing tree stump (granted, it's not a bad guess). I wouldn't even be surprised here if FLUM is the tree stump scum and looking forward to this.

Would you vote for him?

I am considering it.

[BunnyGo]

Still here bunny. How goes it.

It goes. I'm starting to think this game is so complicated and people are so unclear about what's going on that it goes around the bend and requires playing like a complete vanilla game. So...tell me what you think of the 4 posters below worcej in volume? (Chaq, HR, rdr, Maniac)

[Fluminator]

Ok I'm caught up.

Thoughts:

Ghug is annoying and was using a lie to try to push my wagon, so my question remains, is he scum, or bad town?

Teacon is being super weird and even though I didn't find Bozo's survey a useful idea in the first place, Teacon's response to it was very puzzling indeed and I'd like Teacon to explain this.

Fluminator advocating a mass claim, in this setup, because he claims he's desperate to find the Tree Stump, is very suspect. I do not see how outing everyone's role to the Mafia is anything other than a dreadful idea. Is Fluminator scum, or a crazy person?

I agree with this post.

The craziest thing about Flum's proposal is in the BEST CASE we catch 1 scum. 1 scum with a sh*te power. And that's only if Flum is correct about them choosing tree stump (granted, it's not a bad guess). I wouldn't even be surprised here if FLUM is the tree stump scum and looking forward to this.

Are you the stump then?

[Jamiet99uk]

Fluminator advocating a mass claim, in this setup, because he claims he's desperate to find the Tree Stump, is very suspect. I do not see how outing everyone's role to the Mafia is anything other than a dreadful idea. Is Fluminator scum, or a crazy person?

I agree with this post.

The craziest thing about Flum's proposal is in the BEST CASE we catch 1 scum. 1 scum with a sh*te power. And that's only if Flum is correct about them choosing tree stump (granted, it's not a bad guess). I wouldn't even be surprised here if FLUM is the tree stump scum and looking forward to this.

Are you the stump then?

He literally just theorised it was you.

Are you even reading things?

Can you explain why you're so keen on a Mass Claim? Because I think it's a bloody stupid idea.

[Fluminator]

I hate to give up the tell on Jamiet because then he can rectify it in future games. But he's still scum.

[BunnyGo]

Fluminator advocating a mass claim, in this setup, because he claims he's desperate to find the Tree Stump, is very suspect. I do not see how outing everyone's role to the Mafia is anything other than a dreadful idea. Is Fluminator scum, or a crazy person?

I agree with this post.

The craziest thing about Flum's proposal is in the BEST CASE we catch 1 scum. 1 scum with a sh*te power. And that's only if Flum is correct about them choosing tree stump (granted, it's not a bad guess). I wouldn't even be surprised here if FLUM is the tree stump scum and looking forward to this.

Would you vote for him?

I am considering it.

I'm mentally breaking the group into bottom 6 posters, top 6, and middle 6. Among the top 6, Flum is scummiest. I'd vote him. In fact ##vote Flum. Teacon is a close second, but I find him more confusing than Flum's actions.

I don't have leading candidates from the other two groups yet (too many people running). But I'd consider them too. Especially the bottom 6.

[Fluminator]

I agree with this post.

The craziest thing about Flum's proposal is in the BEST CASE we catch 1 scum. 1 scum with a sh*te power. And that's only if Flum is correct about them choosing tree stump (granted, it's not a bad guess). I wouldn't even be surprised here if FLUM is the tree stump scum and looking forward to this.

Are you the stump then?

He literally just theorised it was you.

Are you even reading things?

Can you explain why you're so keen on a Mass Claim? Because I think it's a bloody stupid idea.

Because then town knows everyones role and we could probably townclear a few roles.

[BunnyGo]

Ok I'm caught up.

Thoughts:

Ghug is annoying and was using a lie to try to push my wagon, so my question remains, is he scum, or bad town?

Teacon is being super weird and even though I didn't find Bozo's survey a useful idea in the first place, Teacon's response to it was very puzzling indeed and I'd like Teacon to explain this.

Fluminator advocating a mass claim, in this setup, because he claims he's desperate to find the Tree Stump, is very suspect. I do not see how outing everyone's role to the Mafia is anything other than a dreadful idea. Is Fluminator scum, or a crazy person?

I agree with this post.

The craziest thing about Flum's proposal is in the BEST CASE we catch 1 scum. 1 scum with a sh*te power. And that's only if Flum is correct about them choosing tree stump (granted, it's not a bad guess). I wouldn't even be surprised here if FLUM is the tree stump scum and looking forward to this.

Are you the stump then?

Dude, I'm not participating in your mass claim idiocy.

[seth24c]

Still here bunny. How goes it.

It goes. I'm starting to think this game is so complicated and people are so unclear about what's going on that it goes around the bend and requires playing like a complete vanilla game. So...tell me what you think of the 4 posters below worcej in volume? (Chaq, HR, rdr, Maniac)

Chaqa- I saw where he posted but don’t remember what it was about. Null
Hr-talked about truth tells a couple times which was weird since he has posted so little. I don’t like that particularly.
Rdr-seemed defensive early when he was reveal vanilla. I think it is very possible he could be either alignment still. I want to hear more from him either way.
Maniac- I remember thinking his posts this game were better than last game but he was town last game..

[Jamiet99uk]

I hate to give up the tell on Jamiet because then he can rectify it in future games. But he's still scum.

You are incorrect. Will you buy me a pizza if I'm town?