M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[damo666]

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

X is declared Public Vanilla (PV)

Let g be probability mafia assign PV to one of the original 3 mafia
Let r be the probability mafia recruit

Then:

Probability X is original scum = g

Probability X is recruit is (1-g)r/15

Probability X is town is (1-g)r14/15+(1-g)(1-r)

Putting some guesses for g and r in...

Say g is 10% and r is 90% we get

X is original scum 10%
X is recruited scum 5.4%
X is town 84.6%.

I think most people would agree g<.5 and r>.5 so rdrivera is likely town.

I challenge the 10% you have assigned to g. I think it's too low.

If I was on the scum team I would totally have advocated for selecting PV as one of the slots.

Plug in your own values for g and r and see what you get.

[Jamiet99uk]

By the way, Damo, you'll be interested to learn I am currently doing a Quantitative Analysis module at University. Most of it is about statistical testing and making sure your quantitative data is accurate, reliable, valid, etc., so it's full of distribution curves and t-tests and Kuder Richardson coefficients and Cronbach’s α scores, and it's hurting my brain but it is making some of your posts more intelligible.

[dargorygel]

What I had NOT thought through, damo, was that they had an opportunity to converse before bussing. Which does make them bussing more likely. As the day went on, I didn't find my vote thing as helpful as I wanted to... for at least that reason.

[damo666]

@damo
What did i learn from my vote-request?

What I HOPED to learn will not come out till later in the game. I expect that scum would not bus each other during that early phase. So as scum are revealed, we might have some more deductive material.

Why wouldn't they bus?

Because I would expect scum to not draw threads so early... when scum bus, it seems to me they usually do so with articulated reasons. Not just because some silly survey-like thing asked them to. Bussing is a power that should not be wasted.

Good answer.

[damo666]

What I had NOT thought through, damo, was that they had an opportunity to converse before bussing. Which does make them bussing more likely. As the day went on, I didn't find my vote thing as helpful as I wanted to... for at least that reason.

Wish I'd read this before saying "good answer" to the other post!

[damo666]

By the way, Damo, you'll be interested to learn I am currently doing a Quantitative Analysis module at University. Most of it is about statistical testing and making sure your quantitative data is accurate, reliable, valid, etc., so it's full of distribution curves and t-tests and Kuder Richardson coefficients and Cronbach’s α scores, and it's hurting my brain but it is making some of your posts more intelligible.

Wow. Good for you.

[bozotheclown]

By the way, Damo, you'll be interested to learn I am currently doing a Quantitative Analysis module at University. Most of it is about statistical testing and making sure your quantitative data is accurate, reliable, valid, etc., so it's full of distribution curves and t-tests and Kuder Richardson coefficients and Cronbach’s α scores, and it's hurting my brain but it is making some of your posts more intelligible.

Wow. Good for you.

Is Jamie trying to pocket you?

[damo666]

I have darg Jamie and rdr as my top townies at the mo.

[damo666]

By the way, Damo, you'll be interested to learn I am currently doing a Quantitative Analysis module at University. Most of it is about statistical testing and making sure your quantitative data is accurate, reliable, valid, etc., so it's full of distribution curves and t-tests and Kuder Richardson coefficients and Cronbach’s α scores, and it's hurting my brain but it is making some of your posts more intelligible.

Wow. Good for you.

Is Jamie trying to pocket you?

Nah. Way too elaborate.

[Jamiet99uk]

Plug in your own values for g and r and see what you get.

You've got a deal, statbro.

Allow me to grasp the chalk and approach the blackboard.

I'm going to imagine that roughly one third of players are as zany as me and would do what I'd do and pick PV to be on their team. Like I said, it's cheap and it causes confusion.

=================

X is declared Public Vanilla (PV)

Let g be probability mafia assign PV to one of the original 3 mafia
Let r be the probability mafia recruit

Then:

Probability X is original scum = g

Probability X is recruit is (1-g)r/15

Probability X is town is (1-g)r14/15+(1-g)(1-r)

Putting some guesses for g and r in, so now Jamiet is on the scum team and g is 30%, but r is still 90%, so we get

X is original scum = 30%
X is recruited scum = 4.2%
X is town = 65.8%

He's still more likely town than scum, but I think it's dangerous to rule out the possibility.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok, that game that we lost terribly, I got a scent D1 and had gold in my sights. Scum
Last game I caught summit D1. Scum
This game it's Jamie. Sheep me

wtf you were summit's teammate and you weren't even pushing his wagon. This is fake news.

Lol I love it.

You love it that Ghug used a lie to try to push a wagon on me.

What does this tell you about Ghug?

[Jamiet99uk]

????

?????

[Jamiet99uk]

I think we should massclaim and speedkill the treestump.
I haven't read all the roles super closely yet but some we could lump together a specific number as "important" and some could claim that so we don't give away our precise good ones.

Wait. Fluminator is advocating a mass claim?

In a setup where roles are not alignment-indicative?

WHAT THE FUCK?

This is such a scumsided move I can't even.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm uncomfortable answering this question, as I don't want to give scum any ideas. I did send the godthread a message about this early on... you'll see I was mistaken about some mechanics. However, I will say that I would not have recruited anyone, and I would have picked roles so as to deny town investigative powers.

To clarify, you've been asking people questions. Firstly, about what they'd do with the $90. Second, what they'd do if they were on a scumteam with XYZ. What train of thought led you to ask one question and then the other?

The mafia already made their choices, how could you be giving them ideas? Does telling me what 3 roles you would have picked give anything away to the mafia?

See this is what Vecna and I noticed about Teacon behaving as if we were still in the "pre game" state.

It's very weird. Glad others can see it too.

Teacon could you explain? You understand the concept of the passage of time, yes?

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok I'm caught up.

Thoughts:

Ghug is annoying and was using a lie to try to push my wagon, so my question remains, is he scum, or bad town?

Teacon is being super weird and even though I didn't find Bozo's survey a useful idea in the first place, Teacon's response to it was very puzzling indeed and I'd like Teacon to explain this.

Fluminator advocating a mass claim, in this setup, because he claims he's desperate to find the Tree Stump, is very suspect. I do not see how outing everyone's role to the Mafia is anything other than a dreadful idea. Is Fluminator scum, or a crazy person?

[Jamiet99uk]

There's only 8 hours to go, town, so let's pull this together.

[TheMadMonarch]

Do you now realize the issues with your response to what choices you would have made as mafia? Do you have a modified answer?

Provided my team was more confident than I was (quite likely), then more roles would have been available. I can do a re-do, and account for debt if you'd like?

OK, I would like to know what you think would have been optimal for the mafia.

90
Recruit (10)
Restless spirit (-25)
[those two are good, the rest I picked just to fill remaining space with minimal cost]
Fruit vendor (-24) [I thought I read somewhere that you could "sell fruit" or something; it was a source of income]
Neighborizer (-24) [cheap, and seems to do something]
Public Vanilla (-24) [also cheap, and it's not bad]
Voyeur (-26) [cheap]

A lot of this is just to get those first two, which, in my opinion, are the coolest.

[TheMadMonarch]

I'm going to bed about now, and I will not be available during EOD (as usual).

The votes are currently a mess, so I will add to this with
##VOTE ghug

The fighting with Jamie (who I think is town) and then Flum, was weird. Idk man, I've gotta do something, and I've been recommended to vote for a non-wagon in these cases.

Goodnight!

[seth24c]

Macca uses they/them pronouns, and if we hadn't been talking about the number of people on the scumteam then I'd say no, and they're certainly town, but since it's been in discussion I suppose there's a *slight* chance it's fake.

Lol I didn’t notice this at first either but I don’t think it could be classified as a strong townslip. It would be way too easy to fake, or even do accidentally as scum.

What does your last sentence mean?

I assume you mean the second part “accidentally do as scum” is a theoretical where scum recruits and has four scum players. Macca is scum and knows this but wants to act like they wouldn’t recruit, thus they accidentally list out four roles since their team is four players now.

[BunnyGo]

If it depended on who was on his mind it wouldn't be random would it?

It's impossible to be truly random. He has to pick from somewhere, and my name would not have been in an easily observable set. So unless Bozo just knows the whole player list (and even still), I want to know why I was on his mind?

Take a square piece of paper, fold it in half 4 times and cut along resultant folds. Write the 16 names on the 16 same size squares of paper and screw each one up into a little scrunchy ball. Put the 16 little scrunchies into a pot with a lid and shake up and down. Remove lid and select 2 scrunchies, open and read names. This is what Bozo did.

How many press agents does Bozo need?