M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[ghug]

Jamie's sarcasm aside, I do think you're being overly defensive of bozo and I don't like it. Reminds me of how you claimed there's no way I could have scumslipped last game.

This is consistent with a belief that scumslips are fake news. You've only seen me as scum, so it seems consistent with my scum meta.

What do you mean with your first sentence? Do you never believe in scumslips? Last game, as scum, you said there's no way you'd buy what I said as a scumslip even though I actually thought it was going to get me miskilled (or force me to claim) so in hindsight it seems obvious that you had too much info.

The second part might be true.

Yes, I never believe in scumslips. Scum are more careful with their words, so even though they may occasionally betray something, townies are likely to say things that appear to be scumslips more often.

[ghug]

Having just posted that asking damo to compute odds is useless, I still take umbrage with the misuse of "prior".

Knowing rdr is vanilla shouldn't change your balance between those two options. The balance of the two shouldn't change when you find out he is vanilla. The point of teacon's question is to remove the knowledge of what happened from your analysis.

I'm rejecting teacon's framing because the scum option is framed to account for the reduced set of options given that we now know his role, whereas the town option is not.

I'm saying that we should be considering the state of the world now in examining both possibilities, making rd's now known role a component of the prior distribution and treating the unknown as his alignment, because that's where we are.

Don't try to math me. I used to be smart.

I appreciate your insight here.
I don't see this as a policy vote.
Let me rephrase the question:


Which is more likely:

• scum!rdriv considers himself a "likely nk" target, and if alive d3 will get fear-daykilled by town, so he picks a 0 cost role to provide mild cover and give his scum-team-mates more points, or
• scum rejects the 0 point role, and town!rdriv rands confirmed vanilla as 1 out of 14 (or 1 out of 15)

?

Does that satisfy the criteria concerns you had? I see the first option as more likely, but I don't get why it's a policy vote.

Again, the bases for your scenarios aren't the same. You're not considering that P(scum rd) < P(town rd) at the very start of the game, or that the fact that rd is the vanilla increases the probability that he was randomly picked as town to be the vanilla considerably.

[rdrivera2005]

You will not take the extra member? Bold move.

I was giving a second thought and I would have considered the Public Vanilla instead of the Fruit Vendor if scum have someone that isn't a likely NK.

@rdrivera, could you please elaborate on what you mean by this?
What is a "likely nk" ?
what do you mean by "Public Vanilla instead of the Fruit Vendor" ?

As scum I would not assign the Public Vanilla to a fellow scum player that will be an usual NK choice as Vecna or Durga or even me for example, because it will raise many flags if the player is alive after some nights.

I answered bwfore the Bozo's question about which roles I would have chosen and Fruit Vendor was one ofc then, then I considered Public Vanilla might be a better choice depending on team composition.

[ghug]

I am reverting
Now to my preferred means of
Communication

[rdrivera2005]

I'm rejecting teacon's framing because the scum option is framed to account for the reduced set of options given that we now know his role, whereas the town option is not.

I'm saying that we should be considering the state of the world now in examining both possibilities, making rd's now known role a component of the prior distribution and treating the unknown as his alignment, because that's where we are.

Don't try to math me. I used to be smart.

I appreciate your insight here.
I don't see this as a policy vote.
Let me rephrase the question:


Which is more likely:

• scum!rdriv considers himself a "likely nk" target, and if alive d3 will get fear-daykilled by town, so he picks a 0 cost role to provide mild cover and give his scum-team-mates more points, or
• scum rejects the 0 point role, and town!rdriv rands confirmed vanilla as 1 out of 14 (or 1 out of 15)

?

Does that satisfy the criteria concerns you had? I see the first option as more likely, but I don't get why it's a policy vote.

Again, the bases for your scenarios aren't the same. You're not considering that P(scum rd) < P(town rd) at the very start of the game, or that the fact that rd is the vanilla increases the probability that he was randomly picked as town to be the vanilla considerably.

Yep, if scum chooses not to buy the Public Vanilla role then a random town (me) will get it or there is a small chance the recruited scum gets it, so this math makes no sense.

So, the real question is how likely is for scum to choose the Public Vanilla role.

[teacon7]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

[kgray]

I appreciate your insight here.
I don't see this as a policy vote.
Let me rephrase the question:

Your haikus could use some work.

Which is more likely:

• scum!rdriv considers himself a "likely nk" target, and if alive d3 will get fear-daykilled by town, so he picks a 0 cost role to provide mild cover and give his scum-team-mates more points, or
• scum rejects the 0 point role, and town!rdriv rands confirmed vanilla as 1 out of 14 (or 1 out of 15)

?

Does that satisfy the criteria concerns you had? I see the first option as more likely, but I don't get why it's a policy vote.

I am not liking your explanations for your Rivera vote. When you originally placed it, you said that you could see a probable scenario where scum picked that role because it was cheap and a less appealing daykill target (so it didn't seem to me like you cared that it was Rivera specifically). But now you are trying to fit Rivera specifically into that narrative by talking about him being a fearkill.

Do you have any reasons to scumread Rivera that aren't related to his role or these wifom arguments?

[ghug]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

[rdrivera2005]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

I think you are missing my point. This is not a math question. If you think I am scum and choose this role, fine, vote me, but present a reasoning to scum read me

Hiding behind a fake math to justify a policy lynch doesn't look townie.

[ghug]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

It's like Monty Hall
You're computing from the start
But we've learned new things

[bozotheclown]

again, I'm catching up and posting my replies as I go. Here's another.

Apparently I was not clear, I would like everyone to please answer this question:

What would you have chosen if you were scum and were making the decision for the mafia?

I'm uncomfortable answering this question, as I don't want to give scum any ideas. I did send the godthread a message about this early on... you'll see I was mistaken about some mechanics. However, I will say that I would not have recruited anyone, and I would have picked roles so as to deny town investigative powers.

To clarify, you've been asking people questions. Firstly, about what they'd do with the $90. Second, what they'd do if they were on a scumteam with XYZ. What train of thought led you to ask one question and then the other?

The second question was only for Jamie and kgray because they said they could not answer the first question without knowing who their teammates were.

[bozotheclown]

I think Vengeful is pretty powerful for mafia since it could give them an extra kill and isn't as expensive as double vote or restless spirit. Although maybe it's not so bad for mafia if town has it, because they could kill a townie too...

But my point is that if the team seems strong enough (or at least, likely enough to avoid daykills) then the white flag option could be worth taking to get better roles without going negative.

You would only get the extra kill if the Vengeful is the DK though, and the white flag hurts you if any of the mafia is the DK.

Yeah, true. But the white flag doesn't matter until there's one scum left, and since Vengeful is the only killing role, it's better for scum if they control it so the *only* way they can be killed is with the DK, like you say.

Is this helping you determine my alignment?

maybe

[BunnyGo]

Those who've played with Macca, is he crafty enough to fake this townslip?

Macca uses they/them pronouns, and if we hadn't been talking about the number of people on the scumteam then I'd say no, and they're certainly town, but since it's been in discussion I suppose there's a *slight* chance it's fake.

Sorry, bad defaulting on my part.

The townslippy part is thinking scum get to pick all four rules, to be clear.

Oh, I missed that. I thought it was the number thingy.

[BunnyGo]

@Ghug: Who does Bozo currently scumread, and why?

ROFL. OK, town points for jamie.

For making a joke?

For antagonizing a person instead of a mechanic (wasn't it you who just pointed this out). Scum!jamie runs from fights and deflects instead of leaning in to them.

[BunnyGo]

I have returned, and will be replying to messages, starting with where I left off on page 27.

First, a couple replies to Bunny.

Did you jacka##es just manage to sh*tpost for 24 hours and not even clarify all the rules/roles in that time?

short answer: yes.

Do you not agree with the concept that Town's job is to obv!Town so that we can group up together and find each other?

I recognize that this is how some people play. That is not how I play. I'm not looking for social consensus before making inquiries or decisions. My ability to townread isn't good enough that I wouldn't get fooled. I'm a more independent-minded person anyway. My objective as town isn't really "find town" like you're suggesting, but rather "find scum."

There are lots of ways of doing that. Some involve weird play like drawing nk's away from PR. Some involve posting weirdly to get reactions. Regardless of what you think of the effectiveness of those strategies, they are town-motivated, and don't always look like it. Sometimes, town players are just bad at what they do, but still town. #2020.

Besides, if I was able to artificially manufacture "obv!town so that we can group up together" like you're suggesting, I would be way better at this game when randing scum.

I don't recall ever playing with you before. Have we played together? I think I'd remember you.

[kgray]

Okay Flum, I forgive you now.

##vote teacon7

[BunnyGo]

This is consistent with a belief that scumslips are fake news. You've only seen me as scum, so it seems consistent with my scum meta.

What do you mean with your first sentence? Do you never believe in scumslips? Last game, as scum, you said there's no way you'd buy what I said as a scumslip even though I actually thought it was going to get me miskilled (or force me to claim) so in hindsight it seems obvious that you had too much info.

The second part might be true.

Yes, I never believe in scumslips. Scum are more careful with their words, so even though they may occasionally betray something, townies are likely to say things that appear to be scumslips more often.

were you not here for the recent game where a scum asked in the main thread (instead of scumchat) who they should NK?

[BunnyGo]

This is consistent with a belief that scumslips are fake news. You've only seen me as scum, so it seems consistent with my scum meta.

What do you mean with your first sentence? Do you never believe in scumslips? Last game, as scum, you said there's no way you'd buy what I said as a scumslip even though I actually thought it was going to get me miskilled (or force me to claim) so in hindsight it seems obvious that you had too much info.

The second part might be true.

Yes, I never believe in scumslips. Scum are more careful with their words, so even though they may occasionally betray something, townies are likely to say things that appear to be scumslips more often.

This sounds like not believing in air because you can't see it.

[BunnyGo]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Don't ask for probability in notation. Every probabilist I know (I know a surprising number of them) all admit it's the worst and most confusing notation there is. They have all at one point or another attempted to fix it.

[BunnyGo]

Hm. Maybe you're on to something, maybe not, but I'm too tired rn to go back and figure out the math I'm intuiting here. I wouldn't be opposed to someone laying out the long form statistical notation on this question, as I'd likely learn something about math in the process. Either way, it's time for sleep in the teacon time zone.

Teacon, please do not
Tempt damo like that. It will
Only make you sad

...

I'm not liking ghug trying to subtly play on my biggest pet peeve.

And yet I'm feeling pocketed because he is absolutely correct, and he did it in haiku.