M60 - Duck Season? (Director's Cut) - Game Thread

[seth24c]

I mean the actual answer is that it’s pretty much a gut read

So at peak of maniac counterwagon D1, vote count by my count was

Maniac (8): damo (green), RDR (green), Tom (green), prado (green), summit (red), Donny, nanook, Seth
Summit (7): flash (green), Durga, bozo, flum, ghug, kgray, HR
Nanook (3): chaqa (green), worcej (green), Moscow/EMC
Donny (1): bunny (green)
No vote (2): worcej (green), maniac


So looking at this, this is a weird VC yeah. Normally you’d expect more of the summit voters to be flipped by now...the fact that the only one who’s been flipped was by town is incredible tbh. So that basically leaves two worlds here imo...mafia don’t care about VCA/don’t realize they’re not giving themselves much space if they keep killing off wagon and the summit wagon was at least 6 town...or, at least two of them are on wagon. Independent reads suggest that there’s not more than one summit busser. So that leaves me with some thoughts...maniac is a teammate, summit claimed to try and draw a CC and make sure he was the one that died...but if that’s the case then maniac would normally be on summit here ime. So discarding that for now. Another option is that maniac is [not team wolf] that got run up as a CW by largely town...possible. The thing is...if maniac is town, he was *probably* going to die over summit before summit claimed I think? In which case summit claimed to try and survive (a weird decision but I’ve seen weirder), and likely no more than one partner is on him...which means in that world there’s almost always one between Seth/donny FMPOV.

A side note that in the world where maniac/summit is somehow two team maf, Seth and Donny unlikely to be team maf partners imo, as you’d likely want to save maniac over summit regardless of role.


So basically I’ve got two worlds to look at here, one where summit was hard bussed by partners, and one where summit was trying to survive. Independent reads lead me to believe it’s the world he was trying to survive, so that’s the one I’m evaluating the most, which leads me to continue my earlier largely gut SR of Seth.

You don’t think that if some of those summit voters are so highly townread (which they are by your post) and town aligned that scum would have started flipping them sooner? I think they definitely would have. Which to me means that some of those players who got a lot of town cred and town reads for voting summit are actually scum just by the fact that they are still here. That’s why scum has kept that whole wagon intact for so long. So their townread scum players could hide with the town aligned players on the wagon. In my opinion this is only worth doing if more than two scum are on the wagon. So I think at least two scum were on the summit wagon early. I just can’t tell who it is.

[seth24c]

Those were the reasons I voted for flash over Moscow at EOD when they were the only choices. You were my preferred DK. I also forgot to mention flash's self vote.

Still feels like flimsy reasoning when so much else has happened this game. If you think I am scum who are my teammates? Who are your townreads?

See my previous post.

Do you think it is strange that scum hasn’t started flipping any of the highly townread people on the summit wagon? Why do you think that is?

[seth24c]

Still feels like flimsy reasoning when so much else has happened this game. If you think I am scum who are my teammates? Who are your townreads?

See my previous post.

Do you think it is strange that scum hasn’t started flipping any of the highly townread people on the summit wagon? Why do you think that is?

Since you don’t seem to think it is likely that summit was bussed.

[seth24c]

I currently think maniac is our best chance to hit scum. ##vote maniac

I just... Scum v scum d1? I don't know about this but maybe I'm just not seeing what I should be seeing because his posts are pure garbage otherwise

I mean maybe it’s just because I am still learning this game but it feels like one of the only explanations for the crazy game we have had. Plus I think he could either be traitor or team scum, a case could be made for either at this point. I definitely don’t think he is town at all. Reminds me to change back to ##vote maniac

[seth24c]

Does scum maniac make that giant post about not being traitor eon1?

It got suspicion off of him and he has been coasting ever since. I don’t see why he wouldn’t?

[seth24c]

Wow. ##vote nanook

Shocked at his tone or what?

Annoyed at his refusal to engage in conversation. Somewhat notable that he did start engaging after I did this.

[seth24c]

Yeah, overconfidence.

I wasn’t sure myself. I left not knowing what would happen. Bozo and maniac jumping on like they did doesn’t leave a good taste in my mouth though.

What bothers you about how they jumped on the wagon?

For one thing they both voted vecna over flash the day previous. Also felt like saving of emc/Moscow or maybe even to cast suspicion on that slot. I feel like bozo making the statement that it felt town v town to him already today when I don’t remember him considering that option for vecna v flash is something else that is on my radar.

[seth24c]

I currently think maniac is our best chance to hit scum. ##vote maniac

I just... Scum v scum d1? I don't know about this but maybe I'm just not seeing what I should be seeing because his posts are pure garbage otherwise

Why not scum v scum? Especially if Maniac is the traitor, but even if he's not the Maniac wagon could have been town-driven. The people who were pushing that wagon near the EOD were: Bunny, damo, Donny, Nanook, Rivera, seth, summit, Tom and Prado.

@Durga you seemed to be good with killing flash for not being helpful. Why are you more reluctant to vote Maniac?

Maniac was definitely mostly town driven. I think it is unlikely that both nanook and Donny are scum. More likely only one of them and very unlikely but possible neither.

[seth24c]

Hello. Are we voting for nanook today? I can’t remember what we said last night and since we don’t have daytime chat yet, I thought I’d ask here. Hope that’s OK?

##vote Nanook

This schtick works better when you're not otherwise being completely useless.

Great, can we kill him now? I think he's so much more likely to be scum than Moscow/emc.

Yes please, this is our best bet to actually catch scum.

[seth24c]

I also think it's very likely that the Moscow wagon had at most one scum on it yesterday and was potentially scum-free, which makes the flash wagon bad news.

If you feel this is the case why do you think people who are considered stronger players such as, HR, Flum, kgray and yourself say still around even after being townread pretty much for the whole game? Why was worcej the night kill?

[seth24c]

Moscow tunnelled Seth for two days straight, was absolutely certain he was scum, and then as soon as there was a gun in play he didn't mention Seth once - Then afterward he goes straight back to tunnelling Seth, only stopping to jump off Seth onto the Vecna wagon when it looked like Seth might actually be in play as an EoD wagon D4.

I can absolutely believe that he was bussing Seth but didn't want him to actually die if he could avoid it and if it wouldn't get him enough credit if Seth did flip.

This post feels more like you are trying to make me suspicious than that you are trying to determine whether Moscow is scum. Twisting Moscow’s actions to frame me is exactly what you accused vecna of doing the day he died. I’m starting to feel like I need to take another look at you.

[seth24c]

I see where you're coming from, but he did also encourage a CC, and he's been bold in the past.

We've gotta be nearly 100% right from this point on, emc's not going to do anything to help us read him, and I'm not convinced that both bozo and Maniac are scum if emoscow is, so emoscow remains my preference.

I'll join you on Maniac if the wagon dies or gets big enough that it doesn't need me.

But how are bozo's and Maniac's last-minute votes for flash enough to make emc/moscow your top scumread? If you think they're scum then I can see why you'd scumread emc/moscow. But if you're unsure about them then I don't see how that makes emc/moscow your top suspect based on their votes.

I think it's very likely that at least one is.

Strongly agree.

[Hellenic Riot]

Moscow tunnelled Seth for two days straight, was absolutely certain he was scum, and then as soon as there was a gun in play he didn't mention Seth once - Then afterward he goes straight back to tunnelling Seth, only stopping to jump off Seth onto the Vecna wagon when it looked like Seth might actually be in play as an EoD wagon D4.

I can absolutely believe that he was bussing Seth but didn't want him to actually die if he could avoid it and if it wouldn't get him enough credit if Seth did flip.

This post feels more like you are trying to make me suspicious than that you are trying to determine whether Moscow is scum. Twisting Moscow’s actions to frame me is exactly what you accused vecna of doing the day he died. I’m starting to feel like I need to take another look at you.

I accused Vecna of twisting Moscow's actions? What?

[Durga]

I just... Scum v scum d1? I don't know about this but maybe I'm just not seeing what I should be seeing because his posts are pure garbage otherwise

Why not scum v scum? Especially if Maniac is the traitor, but even if he's not the Maniac wagon could have been town-driven. The people who were pushing that wagon near the EOD were: Bunny, damo, Donny, Nanook, Rivera, seth, summit, Tom and Prado.

@Durga you seemed to be good with killing flash for not being helpful. Why are you more reluctant to vote Maniac?

Maniac was definitely mostly town driven. I think it is unlikely that both nanook and Donny are scum. More likely only one of them and very unlikely but possible neither.

@kgray - yeah I guess the longer maniac does nothing but sheep the more sus he gets. Flash freaked out when he got any pressure, that's what was sus. But truth be told, I can't think of a single reason to town read maniac now. Other than the traitor post EoD I haven't gotten any town vibes from him.

[seth24c]

Also, if you look at the gunshot reaction test through the prism of Moscow & Seth being scum together, then that immediate reaction could be read into as Moscow being ready to jump in and claim credit for Seth flipping scum by pointing out his earlier tunnel - And the fact that he went completely silent when Damo died instead being him having to pull the reigns on that plan.

This makes some sense, but I struggle with the strategy of picking scum and then justifying their interactions with that assumption in mind. It's too much confirmation bias for me. Also he did say he was putting off having dinner for Tom's "EOD" so I also believe that he'd just leave.

This is a town post. At this point in the game any two players could be framed in a way that could make both look suspect or even both look town.

[seth24c]

Moscow tunnelled Seth for two days straight, was absolutely certain he was scum, and then as soon as there was a gun in play he didn't mention Seth once - Then afterward he goes straight back to tunnelling Seth, only stopping to jump off Seth onto the Vecna wagon when it looked like Seth might actually be in play as an EoD wagon D4.

I can absolutely believe that he was bussing Seth but didn't want him to actually die if he could avoid it and if it wouldn't get him enough credit if Seth did flip.

This post feels more like you are trying to make me suspicious than that you are trying to determine whether Moscow is scum. Twisting Moscow’s actions to frame me is exactly what you accused vecna of doing the day he died. I’m starting to feel like I need to take another look at you.

I accused Vecna of twisting Moscow's actions? What?

You accused vecna of trying to buddy me to make me look bad if he flipped scum to take me down with him.

[seth24c]

Why not scum v scum? Especially if Maniac is the traitor, but even if he's not the Maniac wagon could have been town-driven. The people who were pushing that wagon near the EOD were: Bunny, damo, Donny, Nanook, Rivera, seth, summit, Tom and Prado.

@Durga you seemed to be good with killing flash for not being helpful. Why are you more reluctant to vote Maniac?

Maniac was definitely mostly town driven. I think it is unlikely that both nanook and Donny are scum. More likely only one of them and very unlikely but possible neither.

@kgray - yeah I guess the longer maniac does nothing but sheep the more sus he gets. Flash freaked out when he got any pressure, that's what was sus. But truth be told, I can't think of a single reason to town read maniac now. Other than the traitor post EoD I haven't gotten any town vibes from him.

Yep he is so scum.

[seth24c]

(1) I'm not saying he's town and (2) I think those things are town-indicative on the surface. If you have to go layers deeper to find them scum indicative, I think that's more justifying.

I'm not trying to change yours or HR's minds about him, I'm just pointing out what I think are valid reasons to question that read.

Why aren't you trying to change our minds?

Because I'm not confident about him being town. I do think there are better options and I think it's worth pointing out when I see things differently, but he could definitely be scum.

Yeah I feel about emc/Moscow now what I felt about flash yesterday, he could be scum but there are other, better options at this point

[Fluminator]

With even number of players right before mylo, jailor should probably kill someone tonight.

I woke up feeling flash vs. Emc was Town vs. Town

##vote Donny
Will be around more soon

[seth24c]

And who are Maniac's teammates?

Do you think he's definitely the traitor? Have they recruited him?

I still need to go through who makes sense on a team together. I think Donny is likely scum, seth generally reads towny to me but I'm buying bozo's case about his D1 voting (I also thought he seemed to be avoiding summit D1) and yet I don't really trust bozo completely either. I don't townread Durga at all which makes me suspicious.

I'm having a hard time figuring out the worcej NK. I don't think it's great to give in to NK wifom, but since he was one of 5 people talking at night (along with Flum/Durga/Nanook/emc) it makes me think scum are going for guaranteed non-jailed people, and I can't help but question why it was him over Flum and Durga.

I think seth/Nanook could be partners but they don't make a lot of sense with Maniac (especially seth), and moscow/emc does make sense as Maniac's teammate (along with bozo). And I also think Durga fits on a Maniac scumteam.

Maniac could be non-traitor scum but it's pretty unlikely based on summit's claim. If he is the traitor and they haven't recruited him, they're idiots.

The worcej night kill is making me a lot more suspicious about some of the players who have been townread all game but still haven’t been a target. I think nanook had a great point when he said how surprising it was that none of the early summit voters have been a nightkill. I think he had the wrong conclusion from it but it seems to me that the mafia is leaving that early wagon mostly intact to protect there multiple scum who are on it.