M60 - Duck Season? (Director's Cut) - Game Thread

[Hellenic Riot]

Hell, even claiming I tunnelled Bunny is a stretch given I voted him for a whole three hours D2. Sure, I didn't believe his claim (hardly alone on that front), but I don't think there's been a single instance this game of me focusing so much on someone that I ignore everyone else's existence. After the Hamilton Brian debacle last (mini)game I've actively tried to reign in my tunnelling instincts, so mischaracterising it as if that's all I've been doing grates. A lot.

Maybe I haven't thrown my vote onto a load of different wagons at EoD's, but that's not exactly top behaviour. Focusing on the scumread who's actually an option when it comes to EoD's is just... Sensible.

[ghug]

I also think it's very likely that the Moscow wagon had at most one scum on it yesterday and was potentially scum-free, which makes the flash wagon bad news.

So you think it's likely that the 4 remaining scum are in Flum/Nanook/Donny/Durga/bozo/emc?

But you townread Donny and Durga, and you don't particularly want to kill Nanook and Flum?

I think it's possible HR is scum, and if he's not, there's an outside chance you or seth have fooled me, but yes, I think there are 3-4 scum in that pool (plus Maniac, whose exclusion I'm assuming was an oversight.

To sort people into tiers:
Handsome, town-confirmed superhuman: ghug
Very likely town: kgray, seth, Donny
Leaning town: Durga, Nanook
Null: Flum, HR
Scummy: bozo
More scummy: Maniac
More more scummy: emc

[ghug]

It's not just a general D1 townread, but the EOD in particular. Do you really think Moscow's reaction to summit's claim and Chaqa's cc comes from scum?

If you think bozo and/or Maniac was protecting Moscow, join me on Maniac.

I see where you're coming from, but he did also encourage a CC, and he's been bold in the past.

We've gotta be nearly 100% right from this point on, emc's not going to do anything to help us read him, and I'm not convinced that both bozo and Maniac are scum if emoscow is, so emoscow remains my preference.

I'll join you on Maniac if the wagon dies or gets big enough that it doesn't need me.

But how are bozo's and Maniac's last-minute votes for flash enough to make emc/moscow your top scumread? If you think they're scum then I can see why you'd scumread emc/moscow. But if you're unsure about them then I don't see how that makes emc/moscow your top suspect based on their votes.

I think it's very likely that at least one is.

[Hellenic Riot]

Why are you so sure Donny is town?

[kgray]

Moscow tunnelled Seth for two days straight, was absolutely certain he was scum, and then as soon as there was a gun in play he didn't mention Seth once - Then afterward he goes straight back to tunnelling Seth, only stopping to jump off Seth onto the Vecna wagon when it looked like Seth might actually be in play as an EoD wagon D4.

I can absolutely believe that he was bussing Seth but didn't want him to actually die if he could avoid it and if it wouldn't get him enough credit if Seth did flip.

Yeah I see your points, but I'm not super convinced that town wouldn't have a gut scumread of seth but then make a case on damo based on damo's D1 voting. I just don't find it to be that incriminating for town to move around to different targets like that. I also don't think he was tunneling seth on D4 after damo was shot, since he reacted to bozo's case that seemed to provide something tangible he could understand based on his gut read of seth.

And his reaction to Tom's gunshot fakeouts also seemed really genuine. Maybe he's a good actor, but that interaction and his EOD1 make him seem much more natural and open in this game than he did in the last one where he was scum.

[ghug]

Why are you so sure Donny is town?

I get the sense that he wouldn't be very good at hiding as scum, the snarkiness strikes me as coming from a place free of worry, and his posts give me the sense that he's trying to figure things out.

[Hellenic Riot]

Moscow tunnelled Seth for two days straight, was absolutely certain he was scum, and then as soon as there was a gun in play he didn't mention Seth once - Then afterward he goes straight back to tunnelling Seth, only stopping to jump off Seth onto the Vecna wagon when it looked like Seth might actually be in play as an EoD wagon D4.

I can absolutely believe that he was bussing Seth but didn't want him to actually die if he could avoid it and if it wouldn't get him enough credit if Seth did flip.

Yeah I see your points, but I'm not super convinced that town wouldn't have a gut scumread of seth but then make a case on damo based on damo's D1 voting. I just don't find it to be that incriminating for town to move around to different targets like that. I also don't think he was tunneling seth on D4 after damo was shot, since he reacted to bozo's case that seemed to provide something tangible he could understand based on his gut read of seth.

And his reaction to Tom's gunshot fakeouts also seemed really genuine. Maybe he's a good actor, but that interaction and his EOD1 make him seem much more natural and open in this game than he did in the last one where he was scum.

I didn't like his reaction to that at all, though. At the time he called it a great move on Tom's part, and then a few hours later was saying we should disregarding Seth's reactions. I just don't see how it can be both: It's either a great reaction test, or it's a waste of time. His explanation that it was a Great Waste of Time just didn't stack up to me.

[Hellenic Riot]

Why are you so sure Donny is town?

I get the sense that he wouldn't be very good at hiding as scum, the snarkiness strikes me as coming from a place free of worry, and his posts give me the sense that he's trying to figure things out.

I had that thought process, but I've also looked back and Donny has really spent the last few days throwing shade at multiple people without ever moving his vote off Flash, and it looks a lot like he's been adding fuel to fires that are ongoing whilst ensuring he was never on them (Vecna & Worcej were both being widely scumread at the time he made snarky posts about them, and the same's true of Nanook & Bozo, though we don't know their alignment so that's harder to read into).

I'm also concerned that because Donny's scum performance was so awful last time he played, we've set the bar extremely low and he's been able to get away under the radar as a result.

[ghug]

Moscow tunnelled Seth for two days straight, was absolutely certain he was scum, and then as soon as there was a gun in play he didn't mention Seth once - Then afterward he goes straight back to tunnelling Seth, only stopping to jump off Seth onto the Vecna wagon when it looked like Seth might actually be in play as an EoD wagon D4.

I can absolutely believe that he was bussing Seth but didn't want him to actually die if he could avoid it and if it wouldn't get him enough credit if Seth did flip.

Yeah I see your points, but I'm not super convinced that town wouldn't have a gut scumread of seth but then make a case on damo based on damo's D1 voting. I just don't find it to be that incriminating for town to move around to different targets like that. I also don't think he was tunneling seth on D4 after damo was shot, since he reacted to bozo's case that seemed to provide something tangible he could understand based on his gut read of seth.

And his reaction to Tom's gunshot fakeouts also seemed really genuine. Maybe he's a good actor, but that interaction and his EOD1 make him seem much more natural and open in this game than he did in the last one where he was scum.

I didn't like his reaction to that at all, though. At the time he called it a great move on Tom's part, and then a few hours later was saying we should disregarding Seth's reactions. I just don't see how it can be both: It's either a great reaction test, or it's a waste of time. His explanation that it was a Great Waste of Time just didn't stack up to me.

It's also worth noting that, like the reaction to Chaqa''s claim, he was displaying positive emotion to a thing that had an immediately negative impact on town. Obviously he wasn't openly reveling in the negatives specifically, but it's not like that sort of emotion wouldn't make sense coming from scum in those moments.

[ghug]

Why are you so sure Donny is town?

I get the sense that he wouldn't be very good at hiding as scum, the snarkiness strikes me as coming from a place free of worry, and his posts give me the sense that he's trying to figure things out.

I had that thought process, but I've also looked back and Donny has really spent the last few days throwing shade at multiple people without ever moving his vote off Flash, and it looks a lot like he's been adding fuel to fires that are ongoing whilst ensuring he was never on them (Vecna & Worcej were both being widely scumread at the time he made snarky posts about them, and the same's true of Nanook & Bozo, though we don't know their alignment so that's harder to read into).

I'm also concerned that because Donny's scum performance was so awful last time he played, we've set the bar extremely low and he's been able to get away under the radar as a result.

Do you think he's calculated enough to effectively fan fires to get miskills without dirtying his hands?

[kgray]

Why are you so sure Donny is town?

I get the sense that he wouldn't be very good at hiding as scum, the snarkiness strikes me as coming from a place free of worry, and his posts give me the sense that he's trying to figure things out.

The only snarky thing I remember from him was his responding to Chaqa saying we shouldn't post at night, and I don't think that's a great reason to townread him.

I think his questioning posts make it fairly likely he could be hiding as scum, given lots of those questions are based off of things other people have pointed out. And I also find that when he gives opinions they're usually not very original. So I disagree that he wouldn't be good at hiding, I think what he's doing is a very good hiding strategy.

[Hellenic Riot]

Also, if you look at the gunshot reaction test through the prism of Moscow & Seth being scum together, then that immediate reaction could be read into as Moscow being ready to jump in and claim credit for Seth flipping scum by pointing out his earlier tunnel - And the fact that he went completely silent when Damo died instead being him having to pull the reigns on that plan.

[Hellenic Riot]

I get the sense that he wouldn't be very good at hiding as scum, the snarkiness strikes me as coming from a place free of worry, and his posts give me the sense that he's trying to figure things out.

I had that thought process, but I've also looked back and Donny has really spent the last few days throwing shade at multiple people without ever moving his vote off Flash, and it looks a lot like he's been adding fuel to fires that are ongoing whilst ensuring he was never on them (Vecna & Worcej were both being widely scumread at the time he made snarky posts about them, and the same's true of Nanook & Bozo, though we don't know their alignment so that's harder to read into).

I'm also concerned that because Donny's scum performance was so awful last time he played, we've set the bar extremely low and he's been able to get away under the radar as a result.

Do you think he's calculated enough to effectively fan fires to get miskills without dirtying his hands?

Given he's apparently a regular player on MafiaScum, I'd imagine he has at least some experience with that strategy

[kgray]

Moscow tunnelled Seth for two days straight, was absolutely certain he was scum, and then as soon as there was a gun in play he didn't mention Seth once - Then afterward he goes straight back to tunnelling Seth, only stopping to jump off Seth onto the Vecna wagon when it looked like Seth might actually be in play as an EoD wagon D4.

I can absolutely believe that he was bussing Seth but didn't want him to actually die if he could avoid it and if it wouldn't get him enough credit if Seth did flip.

Yeah I see your points, but I'm not super convinced that town wouldn't have a gut scumread of seth but then make a case on damo based on damo's D1 voting. I just don't find it to be that incriminating for town to move around to different targets like that. I also don't think he was tunneling seth on D4 after damo was shot, since he reacted to bozo's case that seemed to provide something tangible he could understand based on his gut read of seth.

And his reaction to Tom's gunshot fakeouts also seemed really genuine. Maybe he's a good actor, but that interaction and his EOD1 make him seem much more natural and open in this game than he did in the last one where he was scum.

I didn't like his reaction to that at all, though. At the time he called it a great move on Tom's part, and then a few hours later was saying we should disregarding Seth's reactions. I just don't see how it can be both: It's either a great reaction test, or it's a waste of time. His explanation that it was a Great Waste of Time just didn't stack up to me.

Well I had a similar reaction to Tom's play (not sure if I think it was particularly helpful as a reaction test, but I thought it was a lot fun) and I also think that seth's reaction wasn't very alignment indicative, so I can't scumread Moscow for that.

[kgray]

Yeah I see your points, but I'm not super convinced that town wouldn't have a gut scumread of seth but then make a case on damo based on damo's D1 voting. I just don't find it to be that incriminating for town to move around to different targets like that. I also don't think he was tunneling seth on D4 after damo was shot, since he reacted to bozo's case that seemed to provide something tangible he could understand based on his gut read of seth.

And his reaction to Tom's gunshot fakeouts also seemed really genuine. Maybe he's a good actor, but that interaction and his EOD1 make him seem much more natural and open in this game than he did in the last one where he was scum.

I didn't like his reaction to that at all, though. At the time he called it a great move on Tom's part, and then a few hours later was saying we should disregarding Seth's reactions. I just don't see how it can be both: It's either a great reaction test, or it's a waste of time. His explanation that it was a Great Waste of Time just didn't stack up to me.

It's also worth noting that, like the reaction to Chaqa''s claim, he was displaying positive emotion to a thing that had an immediately negative impact on town. Obviously he wasn't openly reveling in the negatives specifically, but it's not like that sort of emotion wouldn't make sense coming from scum in those moments.

Right, but don't you think scum would be a lot more likely to be careful about showing those emotions? They're going to be much more hesitant to react positively to anti-town behavior than town are.

[Hellenic Riot]

Yeah I see your points, but I'm not super convinced that town wouldn't have a gut scumread of seth but then make a case on damo based on damo's D1 voting. I just don't find it to be that incriminating for town to move around to different targets like that. I also don't think he was tunneling seth on D4 after damo was shot, since he reacted to bozo's case that seemed to provide something tangible he could understand based on his gut read of seth.

And his reaction to Tom's gunshot fakeouts also seemed really genuine. Maybe he's a good actor, but that interaction and his EOD1 make him seem much more natural and open in this game than he did in the last one where he was scum.

I didn't like his reaction to that at all, though. At the time he called it a great move on Tom's part, and then a few hours later was saying we should disregarding Seth's reactions. I just don't see how it can be both: It's either a great reaction test, or it's a waste of time. His explanation that it was a Great Waste of Time just didn't stack up to me.

Well I had a similar reaction to Tom's play (not sure if I think it was particularly helpful as a reaction test, but I thought it was a lot fun) and I also think that seth's reaction wasn't very alignment indicative, so I can't scumread Moscow for that.

He wasn't suggesting Seth's reaction was not alignment-indicative so much as suggesting that there was no point even trying to read into the reaction at all.

[Hellenic Riot]

I didn't like his reaction to that at all, though. At the time he called it a great move on Tom's part, and then a few hours later was saying we should disregarding Seth's reactions. I just don't see how it can be both: It's either a great reaction test, or it's a waste of time. His explanation that it was a Great Waste of Time just didn't stack up to me.

It's also worth noting that, like the reaction to Chaqa''s claim, he was displaying positive emotion to a thing that had an immediately negative impact on town. Obviously he wasn't openly reveling in the negatives specifically, but it's not like that sort of emotion wouldn't make sense coming from scum in those moments.

Right, but don't you think scum would be a lot more likely to be careful about showing those emotions? They're going to be much more hesitant to react positively to anti-town behavior than town are.

Given how Scum-Moscow got destroyed in the first attempt of this game for his caution and trying to keep himself in check, do you not think that it's possible he actively tried to change the way he played this time?

[Hellenic Riot]

Like if you're trying to distance yourself from rolling scum last time as much as possible, spending the first time complaining about how boring the game is and then jumping in to revel at big moments in game is a pretty stark differentiator without actually involving doing anything... Pro-town.

[Hellenic Riot]

First day*

[kgray]

Also, if you look at the gunshot reaction test through the prism of Moscow & Seth being scum together, then that immediate reaction could be read into as Moscow being ready to jump in and claim credit for Seth flipping scum by pointing out his earlier tunnel - And the fact that he went completely silent when Damo died instead being him having to pull the reigns on that plan.

This makes some sense, but I struggle with the strategy of picking scum and then justifying their interactions with that assumption in mind. It's too much confirmation bias for me. Also he did say he was putting off having dinner for Tom's "EOD" so I also believe that he'd just leave.