M60 - Duck Season? (Director's Cut) - Game Thread

[Nanook]

I mean the actual answer is that it’s pretty much a gut read

So at peak of maniac counterwagon D1, vote count by my count was

Maniac (8): damo (green), RDR (green), Tom (green), prado (green), summit (red), Donny, nanook, Seth
Summit (7): flash (green), Durga, bozo, flum, ghug, kgray, HR
Nanook (3): chaqa (green), worcej (green), Moscow/EMC
Donny (1): bunny (green)
No vote (2): worcej (green), maniac


So looking at this, this is a weird VC yeah. Normally you’d expect more of the summit voters to be flipped by now...the fact that the only one who’s been flipped was by town is incredible tbh. So that basically leaves two worlds here imo...mafia don’t care about VCA/don’t realize they’re not giving themselves much space if they keep killing off wagon and the summit wagon was at least 6 town...or, at least two of them are on wagon. Independent reads suggest that there’s not more than one summit busser. So that leaves me with some thoughts...maniac is a teammate, summit claimed to try and draw a CC and make sure he was the one that died...but if that’s the case then maniac would normally be on summit here ime. So discarding that for now. Another option is that maniac is [not team wolf] that got run up as a CW by largely town...possible. The thing is...if maniac is town, he was *probably* going to die over summit before summit claimed I think? In which case summit claimed to try and survive (a weird decision but I’ve seen weirder), and likely no more than one partner is on him...which means in that world there’s almost always one between Seth/donny FMPOV.

A side note that in the world where maniac/summit is somehow two team maf, Seth and Donny unlikely to be team maf partners imo, as you’d likely want to save maniac over summit regardless of role.


So basically I’ve got two worlds to look at here, one where summit was hard bussed by partners, and one where summit was trying to survive. Independent reads lead me to believe it’s the world he was trying to survive, so that’s the one I’m evaluating the most, which leads me to continue my earlier largely gut SR of Seth.

[Nanook]

We very very likely have a riddler for the 3p btw

[Nanook]

If I’m wrong and summit was hard bussed...it’s probably something like at least two out of ghug/kgray/flum, third either in that group plus HR or maniac probably


I still think world where summit only has one partner at most on him more likely tbh

[bozotheclown]

I still believe we should look closely at D1, since it is not only the one day a scum was the DK, it is the only day we know for sure that a scum was at risk of being DKed.

15 minutes before D1 EOD, summit and Maniac were tied at 8. We now know the next 3 votes for summit were all town (Tom, Chaqa, Vecna), which led to summit's claim. Of the remaining 11 players, 7 were voting for summit when he was tied 8-8 (me, Durga, Fluminator, ghug, HR, kgray, and Moscow/emc), and 4 were not voting for summit at the time of Chaqa's CC (Donny, Maniac, Nanook, seth).

I think HR, kgray, Moscow, and Durga are the least likely to have been bussing summit. Even though I know HR and kgray are both willing to bus, I do not see why they would hard bus summit the majority of D1 even as the damo and Maniac wagons overtook summit. Moscow did remove his initial vote on summit, but he placed his final vote for summit at a critical time near EOD. Also, in M59, when Moscow flipped scum D1, I looked up all of his past scum games to see how likely he was to bus, and I found no cases of significant bussing (although he did place a "joke" vote on Tom D1 of M59). Durga did not vote for summit until he was already ahead by 2 votes, but she kept her vote on summit as damo tied summit and Maniac went ahead of summit by one vote.

Fluminator and ghug were the second and third vote for summit early D1, both votes apparently for summit having his online status hidden. Fluminator and ghug also both moved their vote off of summit 2 different times D1. Both times Fluminator moved his vote off of summit, summit was ahead by one vote, and both times Fluminator did not vote for summit's top counter wagon, so that he left summit tied instead of putting his counter wagon ahead. ghug did the same thing the second time he moved his vote off of summit, the first time summit was ahead by 2 votes.

As I have already gone into in detail, Donny and seth avoided voting for summit and voted for more than 1 of his counter wagons. seth also scum read summit for the first time just as it looked certain summit would be the DK.

Maniac did a few things that could be considered signaling as the traitor: he claimed he did not read his role PM while saying something about figuring things out not knowing who he is, he repeatedly referred to himself as scum, and he said something about meeting his teammate in scum chat. Maniac placed an early vote for Fluminator, which could also be a signal if Fluminator is scum. Maniac also ended the day without a vote, he could have been keeping his options open at EOD.

Nanook seemed generally disinterested D1 but did vote 2 times without voting for summit or summit's top counter wagon at the time of his votes.

The bottom line is I would not rules out Donny, seth, and Nanook, with Maniac as the traitor. However, chances are someone bussed summit D1, and Fluminator and ghug are the most likely bussers.

Anyone could be blending in as the 3P.

Looking at other days:

D2: 10 different players voted for seth at some point D2, only 6 are left. 3 different players voted for Donny at some point D2, and I am the only one left. TrPrado and BunnyGo were the only other significant wagons D2. Donny did vote for seth D2. However, in Donny's other scum game here (M56), Donny bussed Chaqa D1.

D3: Fluminator seemed to suspect BunnyGo was 3P instead of mafia, Nanook briefly voted for seth after BunnyGo claimed 9lives.

D4: town vs. town at Tom's shooting deadline, town vs. town at EOD, Nanook and seth were the only other significant wagons.

D5: My guess is it was town vs. town also.

Besides seth's suspicious D1, seth ended D2 on BunnyGo as TrPrado got DKed, did not vote D3, ended D4 on flash as Vecna got DKed, and ended D5 on Moscow as flash got DKed. seth is the only player left who has never ended a day on the top wagon, even if you do not count D1 and D3.

##VOTE seth

[bozotheclown]

Totally disagree that it wouldn’t help him as scum. Why does that even make sense? Also not at all liking that your only reason for voting flash is this cheap town credit gimmick whatever from day one. I understand if you thought his lurking or status as a counterwagon to town players might make sense as him being saved but it’s day whatever and that’s still your only way to justify that crucial of a vote? At this point I am becoming a lot more suspicious of your motivation.

Those were the reasons I voted for flash over Moscow at EOD when they were the only choices. You were my preferred DK. I also forgot to mention flash's self vote.

Still feels like flimsy reasoning when so much else has happened this game. If you think I am scum who are my teammates? Who are your townreads?

See my previous post.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 6.1

e.m.c^42 (2) - ghug, Hellenic Riot
Maniac (1) - kgray
Nanook (1) - seth24c
seth24c (1) - bozotheclown

Currently EMC is set to be smashed over the head with an absurdly enormous mallet.

35.5 hours remain in Day 6 of this thrilling escapade.

[Durga]

I agree with all of this except that my bozo suspicion is higher than it was a day ago.

I really want to keep scumreading you but I don't have a good reason for it anymore, so I guess you're null again. HR too.

I'm pretty sketched on Moscow/emc at this point, and the way the day ended really implicates bozo and Maniac, though my gut says not both of them. I'm kinda inclined in that direction for the daykill.

I still townread donny, and kgray, though I should probably be doing my homework on the latter at this point. Someone tell me what her scumgame is like.

Leaning town on Durga because of the way she got pissed off at me yesterday and the fact that she posts at night, but her D4 voting+a presumption of flash's guilt was a part of that read, and the lower activity than normal is justified but makes it harder to read her strongly.

We're potentially a daykill from KILO, I'm kinda lost, and there's some sort of 3P out there, so I don't feel great right now.

Why do you still townread Donny? Why wouldn't scum!Durga get pissed off at you?

His play is such that I'd expect him to be playing scared and quiet as scum. Instead, he's very snarky and is usually actually expressing a thought or asking a genuine question.

Durga's terrified of me, which means she attacks me ruthlessly when she's town and I could be scum, and she avoids me when she's scum.

OK chill I would not use the word terrified smh. Do you think I'm attacking you ruthlessly in this game though?

[Durga]

Pretty much all of them, but specifically the ones who managed to spend the entire EoD on them and didn't even care to show up to reconsider or look at the other wagon despite normally being present. I actually find Bozo/Maniac to be somewhat *less* suspicious than the rest of those votes.

What about someone like me who was perfectly content with a flash kill but ended up on the other wagon?

Well given I think emcfleet is scum, I'm not hugely suspicious of that.

##vote EMC

So you're actually just salty we didn't consider your wagon seriously and are therefore sus? Like, you talk about not bothering to reconsider but it feels like all you've done this game is essentially pick a target and tunnel on them until they're dead and move on to the next.

[Durga]

Flum did you kill him to protect yourself?

He said he was going after bozo first

At one point worcej said you had his vote D6, but one of the reasons he gave for suspecting you was that he thought you were signaling me as the traitor.

What is this point supposed to be

[Durga]

One thing that I wanted to ask worcej about is this statement: "A striking issue I have with bozo: He spent a lot of D4 pushing a narrative of flash being scum, yet when his vote mattered (Flash and Venca were tied), he voted for Vecna without ever having a case made for him." This was odd considering worcej cited my case on Vecna as the reason he voted for Vecna D4.

Lol bro it's worcej. Internally contradictory in every way.

[Durga]

I think worcej was the NK because the mafia knew there was no chance he was in jail, which makes me wonder why others, specifically Fluminator and Durga, who have posted every night, are unconcerned with revealing that they are not jailed.

I want to die

[Durga]

I feel like nanook says he is solving and then keeps on the same ideas for a long time.

d2 he reads seth as scum and has done so continuously since then, but then d5 says he is voting seth for lols.

Also of note from d2, "Still think Durga/ghug are town. Damo could probably be mafia. Still think maniac is a decent chance to be lost wolf tbh. If damo is mafia flum probably isn’t based on voting I think. Moscow probably town if maniac is [town/lost wolf]."
"Then d4, I think damo is >rand town, he looks a lot like I remember him from the ship."

So, Nanook what is your read on seth?

How do you read flum now?

He's not my strongest townread and I'm a bit suspicious because of general paranoia, but I don't scumread him nearly enough to vote for him at this point.

Why do you feel like flum is town?

[Durga]

I’ve got Durga/bozo/ghug town. I sort of want to TR the Moscow/EMC slot but not confident. Flum is probably town I guess, not confident there either. If I had to bet on a game winning POE right this second this is probably what I’d go with. Maybe swap HR for Flum or EMoscow.

Have you ever actually explained why you town read me? And the others I guess? Is it something beyond gut feelings?

[Durga]

If you are talking about seth or you, what is wrong with expecting a different result when the result for the last 4 days has been a mis-kill?

hmm
k.

You voted for seth D2 because you said his D1 was suspicious, what has changed your read of him?

Why are you tunnelling on Seth so intensely? I don't remember you doing this usually. It's a little annoying, I don't see anything sus about Seth. What's your case on him now?

[Durga]

I currently think maniac is our best chance to hit scum. ##vote maniac

I just... Scum v scum d1? I don't know about this but maybe I'm just not seeing what I should be seeing because his posts are pure garbage otherwise

[Durga]

Does scum maniac make that giant post about not being traitor eon1?

[ghug]

I still believe we should look closely at D1, since it is not only the one day a scum was the DK, it is the only day we know for sure that a scum was at risk of being DKed.

15 minutes before D1 EOD, summit and Maniac were tied at 8. We now know the next 3 votes for summit were all town (Tom, Chaqa, Vecna), which led to summit's claim. Of the remaining 11 players, 7 were voting for summit when he was tied 8-8 (me, Durga, Fluminator, ghug, HR, kgray, and Moscow/emc), and 4 were not voting for summit at the time of Chaqa's CC (Donny, Maniac, Nanook, seth).

I think HR, kgray, Moscow, and Durga are the least likely to have been bussing summit. Even though I know HR and kgray are both willing to bus, I do not see why they would hard bus summit the majority of D1 even as the damo and Maniac wagons overtook summit. Moscow did remove his initial vote on summit, but he placed his final vote for summit at a critical time near EOD. Also, in M59, when Moscow flipped scum D1, I looked up all of his past scum games to see how likely he was to bus, and I found no cases of significant bussing (although he did place a "joke" vote on Tom D1 of M59). Durga did not vote for summit until he was already ahead by 2 votes, but she kept her vote on summit as damo tied summit and Maniac went ahead of summit by one vote.

Fluminator and ghug were the second and third vote for summit early D1, both votes apparently for summit having his online status hidden. Fluminator and ghug also both moved their vote off of summit 2 different times D1. Both times Fluminator moved his vote off of summit, summit was ahead by one vote, and both times Fluminator did not vote for summit's top counter wagon, so that he left summit tied instead of putting his counter wagon ahead. ghug did the same thing the second time he moved his vote off of summit, the first time summit was ahead by 2 votes.

As I have already gone into in detail, Donny and seth avoided voting for summit and voted for more than 1 of his counter wagons. seth also scum read summit for the first time just as it looked certain summit would be the DK.

Maniac did a few things that could be considered signaling as the traitor: he claimed he did not read his role PM while saying something about figuring things out not knowing who he is, he repeatedly referred to himself as scum, and he said something about meeting his teammate in scum chat. Maniac placed an early vote for Fluminator, which could also be a signal if Fluminator is scum. Maniac also ended the day without a vote, he could have been keeping his options open at EOD.

Nanook seemed generally disinterested D1 but did vote 2 times without voting for summit or summit's top counter wagon at the time of his votes.

The bottom line is I would not rules out Donny, seth, and Nanook, with Maniac as the traitor. However, chances are someone bussed summit D1, and Fluminator and ghug are the most likely bussers.

Anyone could be blending in as the 3P.

Looking at other days:

D2: 10 different players voted for seth at some point D2, only 6 are left. 3 different players voted for Donny at some point D2, and I am the only one left. TrPrado and BunnyGo were the only other significant wagons D2. Donny did vote for seth D2. However, in Donny's other scum game here (M56), Donny bussed Chaqa D1.

D3: Fluminator seemed to suspect BunnyGo was 3P instead of mafia, Nanook briefly voted for seth after BunnyGo claimed 9lives.

D4: town vs. town at Tom's shooting deadline, town vs. town at EOD, Nanook and seth were the only other significant wagons.

D5: My guess is it was town vs. town also.

Besides seth's suspicious D1, seth ended D2 on BunnyGo as TrPrado got DKed, did not vote D3, ended D4 on flash as Vecna got DKed, and ended D5 on Moscow as flash got DKed. seth is the only player left who has never ended a day on the top wagon, even if you do not count D1 and D3.

##VOTE seth

bozo, I remember you being very anti scumclaim in the past, to the point of tunneling me for days despite my repeatedly being the counterwagon to dead scum. Given that there's actually cause for scum to do this in this game (as you outline here), why have you not been more rabidly antiManiac?

[ghug]

Why do you still townread Donny? Why wouldn't scum!Durga get pissed off at you?

His play is such that I'd expect him to be playing scared and quiet as scum. Instead, he's very snarky and is usually actually expressing a thought or asking a genuine question.

Durga's terrified of me, which means she attacks me ruthlessly when she's town and I could be scum, and she avoids me when she's scum.

OK chill I would not use the word terrified smh. Do you think I'm attacking you ruthlessly in this game though?

You were yesterday.

Do you still scumread me?

[Durga]

Wow. ##vote nanook

Shocked at his tone or what?

[Durga]

I’ve got Durga/bozo/ghug town. I sort of want to TR the Moscow/EMC slot but not confident. Flum is probably town I guess, not confident there either. If I had to bet on a game winning POE right this second this is probably what I’d go with. Maybe swap HR for Flum or EMoscow.

So who do you think is our best bet to hit scum today? Second best?

That isn’t really how I‘m approaching thIs game

Probably you, but

I’m approaching this game strictly through solving by POE at this point

I am not following your process of elimination