M1015 - Super Mafioso Bros

[summit_fever]

#807: Summit wondering why I didn't vote my scumreads. I read so many people as scum, and so wrote, that I did vote that way.

#814: Jamie proves he has been reading carefully. Thank you.

#815: My analysis of the day/rebuttal

#817: Yes, HR. I felt like you were almost a forgone kill but I don't see anything wrong with having a couple of wagons. One wagon allows scum to hide, right? VCA becomes useless?

Page 42

#823: Bozo with some controversy; summit votes me to save HR, then summit moves back to HR, requiring Bo_ back to me to save HR. Interesting...plot thickens.

#828: Bozo asserts that it looks like Bo_ is doing what he can to save HR based on the D2 votes. Deliberately caused a tie.

#829: Feel like Bozo is my biggest defender throughout all of this.

#830: Bozo to RDR; why is summit's vote of such concern when your vote was on someone else (HR).

#831: In a pedantic retort to Bozo, HR presumes that my vote was "opportunistic and cynical" to lock two wagons. That's a lot of inferring and presuming to know my thought process. Opportunism? Not really. Better more than one wagon, as I've already said. Cynical? Yeah, I don't see it. Nice post, though.

Aside: What I am getting into right now as I continue reading is that SO much time is spent trying to diagnose my vote and my words. SO much time. If I was just listened to, or if I made myself better understood, we wouldn't be down as town right now.

#837: HR glossing up kgray and Bo_?

#839: Good prose from Bo_; certainly presents an interesting analysis of the EoD2. Worth a reread.

To page 43.

I didn't wonder why you hadn't voted your scumreads. I thought you had.

And I never voted for you day 2.

I know it isn't the easiest thing to do but if you hit the reply with quote button for each post you want to reference and then copy and paste it into another tab with a reply set up it works out pretty well.

[summit_fever]

I now somewhat townlean HR. His responses to me seem sincere and I'm worried I was tunnelling. His responses to you are very convincing.

I still scumread summit and YET AGAIN he is being allowed to lurk.

You had an opportunity to kill HB D2 EOD, but you stayed on summit. Why did you vote for HB over summit at the beginning of D3?

Because there was much more momentum on HB and I don't want another bloody draw.

You're from the UK. You love draws.

[summit_fever]

You cannot get to D3 in this setup and have NO scumreads.

Macca is scum.

Hey that's a vote I can get behind

##vote macca

[summit_fever]

I'm still waiting on Macca to answer which exact points Vecna made that singlehandedly convinced him that I was scum D2

I am more concerned with those who avoided your wagon D2, whether you are town or not. kgray and summit look like they did not want to be on your wagon when/if you flipped.

I wasn't a big fan of being on the wagon, but I thought it was more likely to hit scum compared to Hamilton.

[bozotheclown]

Feeling pretty good about damo and jamie. macca not so much.

##vote macca

This post probably means Jamie is town if summit is mafia. That would mean kgray/summit/rdrivera is the most likely scum team if kgray changed her mind about voting for summit D2 because they are both mafia.

[bozotheclown]

Usually rdr and I think pretty similarly - in previous games he's even said I could be his spokesperson. I haven't played with scum!rdr (he was 3p in one game, but still hunting so that doesn't really count) so I think the fact that we're on such different pages is alarming. It might have started out as a misunderstanding, but we cleared that up and I'm still just not seeing where he's coming from. It's fine for him to make jokes, but when only 20% or whatever of his posts are serious and he hasn't said anything I've agreed with, then I'm concerned. Also, he's continually avoiding answering my question and that combined with all the jokes make me think he's trying to hide.

This is exactly why I am scumreading you. I usually identify with most things you say, you were my spokesperson, exactly. This game I can't follow your reasoning. Maybe it's because of our start, but I am still waiting to get some towny vibes from you.

interesting that Rdrivera is using the spokesperson thing to reverse a read on the Kgray slot, while he was actually spokeperson-promoting scum Kgray that game.

This was an interesting point by Vecna. I know the "spokesperson" thing started in a game where rdrivera and kgray were both town (I believe M55), rdrivera said it again in M1011 when kgray was scum (and killed rdrivera N1):

And by the way, I know there are lots of jokes in this phase - but I do genuinely find damoa actions suspicious.

Why? I doubt he thinks anyone will follow him onto xorxes based on that reasoning, and he's basically forcing himself to change his vote when xorxes starts posting. This would be a really terrible way to try to get a xorxes wagon going.

I know I risk being accused of buddying but Kgray is officially my spokesperson.

[bozotheclown]

If six of us ##END on Bo_Sox we might even deprive the Mafia of a kill tonight.

This idea isn't bad, but I doubt we get six votes before one scum can cast a vote on the Mafia QT.

By the way, scum team is Bo, Damo and who else?

Is this whole post a joke? You can't really think the scumteam includes Bo and Damo while also pointing out the obvious flaw in Jamie's plan but still calling it "good"?

Here is where the kgray/rdrivera D1 mutual voting began. It probably should be obvious enough that at least the second part of rdrivera's post was a joke that kgray should not need to ask.

[bozotheclown]

bo_sox48 - hard for me to read, because I think bo's personality is pretty strong and NAI. His abrasiveness seems townie to me but I also don't see any reason why scum!bo wouldn't act the same way. Null.

bozotheclown - not much to go on, obviously, but in my experience lurking is out of character for bozo. Also not a fan of the fact that his only "actual" post seemed to be simultaneously trying to buddy me and also throwing shade in my direction. Slight scumlean.

Damo666 - I didn't like how quickly he agreed that I'm town, but I did get good vibes from that interaction we had afterwards. Townlean.

Hamilton Brian - Hasn't said much of anything, and I think he got really defensive when I questioned why he needs a new strategy for a game with no night phases. Scumlean.

Hellenic Riot - could definitely be intentionally hiding in the background, especially since Jamie says he usually posts more. His two posts were just pointing out pretty obvious logical thoughts so they were "safe", but they were thoughts that I agreed strongly with. Null.

Jamiet99uk - Jamie seems like his typical self to me. I don't think he expected the hammer "plan" to go through and it got people talking, and I think that kind of thing is townie. Townlean.

Macca573 - all over the place and I don't agree with much of his(?) thought process. But bad logic isn't necessarily scum-indicative, and I'm getting the feeling people are trying to get an easy miskill with macca. Null.

Rdrivera2005 - most of rdr's content has been jokes (that I apparently don't understand) and the serious things he's posted haven't sat well with me at all. Mostly, the comment about me picking on Vecna really threw me. I have no idea why he thinks I'm picking on Vecna - why not ask Jamie why he's picking on Vecna, when he had the same response to Vecna's read of bozo? And why is asking Vecna a question picking on him? Rdr even questioned that same post of Vecna's. Scumlean, and ##VOTE RDR.

Summitfever - didn't summit participate more in previous games? His vote for macca didn't have any content or explain why he's feeling good about jamie and damo. Null.

Vecna - seems townie in the way he calls people out, although rdr's unnecessary defense of him makes me raise an eyebrow. I think that if rdr is scum he's just as likely (if not more likely) to buddy Vecna as he is to protect his teammate. Townlean.

Here are kgray's D1 reads. She has stayed fairly consistent to them, which could be a scum indicator. She had rdrivera as a scum lean (and voted him) and summit as a null, although she has changed her read of rdrivera.

In M1011, kgray's partners were damo and Chaqa, with damo as a scum read (and voted him) and Chaqa as a null:

Towny
foodcoats - I like the way he's pushing his xorxes read and I think he's coming from a solving, townie mindset.
bozo - I agree with Tom that him asking me where I heard that Tom was a good player was townie, and he didn't try to make a big deal of it when I answered him. It's a reasonable question for town to have, and scum!bozo could have easily disbelieved my explanation. And, I see exactly where he's coming from regarding xorxes. Overall it seems like bozo's hunting.
Tom - Mostly I think he makes good points. When we disagreed about damo's initial vote I thought his responses to my questions were reasonable and didn't seem like he was trying too hard to push a narrative. And, I don't agree with how he shrugged off the xorxes misremembering thing, but I don't think he'd defend xorxes so hard if he were scum. He'd either push town!xorxes for a mislynch or bus his teammate (or at least, not stick his neck out so much for him).
rivera - Also seems to be hunting, and specifically the way his read of bozo evolved seemed townie. And, similar thing as Tom with rdr defending xorxes.

Null
Chaqa - I think his frustration with xorxes joking around seems genuine, and he probably wouldn't make such a big deal out of it if he were scum.
emc - hasn't said much...
Summit - I think the fact that summit mentioned being worried about being buddied is towny from a newer player, but other than that I'm not seeing a lot of things that scream town from him. Last game I felt much more strongly that he had a town pov, so this is concerning.

Scummy
damo - Doesn't appear to be hunting or even reading the thread.
worcej - I don't like the way he voted for xorxes. Seemed opportunistic, and his only reasons were that food had good reads last game (true) and that a xorxes flip gives a lot of info (not particularly true, imo).
Neph - lurking beyond reason, and has said basically nothing useful. He's not even trolling as much as he did as town last game, so it just seems like he's hiding.
xorxes - My weakest scumread and honestly barely more than null, but I can't shake the fact that he used a nonexistant game/meta as a reason to base a read. I really think that town!xorxes would have better reasons to make reads, even if it's only an assumption of how I'd play as scum.

Also, I checked kgray's town games (M54, M1010, M55), and she did not provide a reads list D1 in those games.

[bozotheclown]

Will sheep Vecna to avoid a tie

##vote HB

This vote was late but would have killed HB D2. Why didn't you follow Vecna onto summit to avoid the tie when there was a 3 way tie for about 2 minutes?

[TheMadMonarch]

What was your reason for thinking HR was a scum possibility when you voted for him?

Not gonna lie, I'm pretty gullible. Players I definitely trusted, like Vecna, were raising some pretty good points. Then you, who I was reading more and more town by the minute, gave out very detailed reasoning for why you believed it to be true.

Due to my limited understanding of the way people act in this game, following people who I believed were town and knowledgeable, seemed the right choice of action.

Similar reasoning and action will likely be used by me for the remainder of the game.

Vecna made good points? That's interesting, because he barely made any attempt to explain his vote on me at all. Could you go back and quote just what these 'pretty good points' about me that convinced you to vote me were?

Sorry, miscommunication.

Players I definitely trusted, like vecna, were doing it. And people who are smart, like Jamie and Bozo, were giving detailed reasons I beleived.

Rather then manually quoting each one, I would direct you to page 27, posts #521 through #527.
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3 ... p?p=172637

[TheMadMonarch]

I know you're all doing advanced analysis, but I've got some changes to my reads:

I had before stated my suspicions of Bozo, based mostly his general lack of engagement, unlike what he's done in the past. He has since however, changed his tune, and some of the more recent things he has said and done now have me believing the he is town.

Similarly, I also am leaning town on Bo_ and kgray, based on their (from what I can tell) good town work.

Jamie is a weird one. I think he's done some stuff I believe to help us uncover the mafia, but he's just giving off weird vibes.

Summit and RDR are null for now.

You apparently have no scumreads, Macca?

Who. Do. You. Think. Is. Scum?

You.

No-one is sum-leaning too much, but the furthest over the line is you. I would have thought that were evident in the above post.

And to be honest, summit's looking a little weird now (but that could just be that I'm scared because he's voting for me).

[bozotheclown]

With rdrivera being one of the first 5 votes for HR D2, if rdrivera is scum and HR is town, it would make sense for rdrivera's partners to avoid the HR wagon so that if HR was killed, multiple scum would not be under scrutiny for killing HR.

[bozotheclown]

I looked into the discussion of Vecna's BP claim, and it seems like kgray, summit, and rdrivera were all aware of the claim fairly early. kgray was questioning players for not seeing the claim, rdrivera called it obvious without the link, and summit was the first to directly state Vecna had claimed. Jamie and HR said they missed the claim because they do not open links, bo_sox said he thought it was easy to miss, HB missed the claim, and I am not sure if Macca is aware of the claim. I also missed the claim because I typically do not open links, and I had read Vecna's post about getting something from the mods without thinking the link was going to be something important, I think it just sounded like a joke. With the mafia day chat, if one scum saw the claim they all would know, and the mafia also knew they had hit Vecna, so they would be looking for Vecna to claim, so I think this supports the possibility of a kgray/summit/rdrivera scum team.

[rdrivera2005]

Feeling pretty good about damo and jamie. macca not so much.

##vote macca

This post probably means Jamie is town if summit is mafia. That would mean kgray/summit/rdrivera is the most likely scum team if kgray changed her mind about voting for summit D2 because they are both mafia.

I can see a team with Kgray and Summit (and maybe Jamiet or even HB) and I can also see HR and Bo in a scum team together. I can also see you and HB being scum together. But I think we need to try to find one scum first before the whole team.

[Jamiet99uk]

My scumpool right now:

bozotheclown
Hamilton Brian
Macca573
summit_fever

Why is bozo in your scumpool?

I've made my suspicions of Bozo very clear today. Aren't you reading my posts?

[Jamiet99uk]

The kgray/summit scum theory would mean HR, HB, and probably even bo_sox are town. That leaves Jamie, rdrivera, and Macca. I think Macca is probably town. kgray could have been bussing either rdrivera or Jamie D1. Jamie never seemed to care much about kgray voting for him, so maybe kgray/summit/Jamie.

Why do you townread Macca?

What do you make of Macca having ZERO scumreads today?

[rdrivera2005]

Will sheep Vecna to avoid a tie

##vote HB

This vote was late but would have killed HB D2. Why didn't you follow Vecna onto summit to avoid the tie when there was a 3 way tie for about 2 minutes?

Because I want to lynch HR. I was waiting last minute to vote to avoid a tie and waited too much because I was refreshing the thread on phone.
Someone (HR I think) said I wrote too much, but it isn't right, I have the text copied, I was just waiting to post and my phone was still saying it's 18:59 (local time). When I am in a computer I can use time.is, but it doesn't work on my android.

[Jamiet99uk]

I know you're all doing advanced analysis, but I've got some changes to my reads:

I had before stated my suspicions of Bozo, based mostly his general lack of engagement, unlike what he's done in the past. He has since however, changed his tune, and some of the more recent things he has said and done now have me believing the he is town.

Similarly, I also am leaning town on Bo_ and kgray, based on their (from what I can tell) good town work.

Jamie is a weird one. I think he's done some stuff I believe to help us uncover the mafia, but he's just giving off weird vibes.

Summit and RDR are null for now.

You apparently have no scumreads, Macca?

Who. Do. You. Think. Is. Scum?

You.

No-one is sum-leaning too much, but the furthest over the line is you. I would have thought that were evident in the above post.

And to be honest, summit's looking a little weird now (but that could just be that I'm scared because he's voting for me).

No it was not "obvious". Saying I have "weird vibes" is not the same as declaring me a scumread.

Ok you have exactly 1.5 scumreads.

Vote for me.

[rdrivera2005]

I looked into the discussion of Vecna's BP claim, and it seems like kgray, summit, and rdrivera were all aware of the claim fairly early. kgray was questioning players for not seeing the claim, rdrivera called it obvious without the link, and summit was the first to directly state Vecna had claimed. Jamie and HR said they missed the claim because they do not open links, bo_sox said he thought it was easy to miss, HB missed the claim, and I am not sure if Macca is aware of the claim. I also missed the claim because I typically do not open links, and I had read Vecna's post about getting something from the mods without thinking the link was going to be something important, I think it just sounded like a joke. With the mafia day chat, if one scum saw the claim they all would know, and the mafia also knew they had hit Vecna, so they would be looking for Vecna to claim, so I think this supports the possibility of a kgray/summit/rdrivera scum team.

Why scum would be looking for Vecna to claim as they already knew he is BP? Also, don't you believe scum is more likely to avoid looking like they already know Vecna is BP? At least one?

[rdrivera2005]

My scumpool right now:

bozotheclown
Hamilton Brian
Macca573
summit_fever

Why is bozo in your scumpool?

I've made my suspicions of Bozo very clear today. Aren't you reading my posts?

I am starting to agree with you. This Bozo insistence on building a whole scumteam and twisting things to fit it doesn't seems natural. And he magically forgot HR.