Coronavirus

[orathaic]

Vitamin D good for reducing case fatality rate.

Reinfection, 1 man in Hong Kong seems to have been reinfected (with a different version of the virus). Not enough data if only 1 out of 24 million cases then it can probably be ignored.

Trump pushes experimental plasma treatment (taking antibodies from the blood of people who have recovered from covid 19 and using them to protect...). Sounds good, should be tested, we don't know how effective it is, with good screening you can minimise the chance of infecting people with other viruses (like hepatitis or hiv). Does not provide long term protection. May be a great stop-gap measure while a vaccine is developed...

Is it political, of course.

[Randomizer]

Reinfection, 1 man in Hong Kong seems to have been reinfected (with a different version of the virus). Not enough data if only 1 out of 24 million cases then it can probably be ignored.

! fully documented case with DNA of each infection. There have been other reported cases, but they lack this level of documentation. Mostly because testing couldn't determine if they were 2 different infections or bad testing procedures. Some tests are no more reliable than a coin flip.

[orathaic]

The person I heard claims the other reports were mostly people reshedding the virus after a first infection. But the important thing is we need a big cohort to study how common reinfection is.

[Octavious]

The second infection, from my understanding, was entirely asymptomatic. His first infection was akin to a mild cold. There is very little to get particularly worried about from that.

If it was a common event for people who have had Covid-19 to get a second harmful case we'd be acutely aware of it by now. Everything points to it being highly unusual, and where it does happen there's zero evidence of harm.

[orathaic]

The problem is we don't know how common this is.

But even if this particular patient is not harmed, he could have spread it to others. Estimates I've heard suggest 70% of the world's population needing to be infected before we can go back to 'normal'... But if they keep spreading and killing the uninfected after that, it is still not ideal (also will a vaccination program getting to 70% of the population be more effective? I think some vaccines do leave the immune system better prepared to face infection than the disease itself, but if the vaccine works and can offer long term protection - where new infections don't cause harm, then if we can vaccinate 100% we will be able to ignore the virus...)

Either way, zero evidence is right. We have no evidence of harm, nor of the absence of harm.

Meanwhile, children spreading the disease seems like a big problem for schools going back (even if they don't suffer too much). Targeted school closures may be the order of the day, but don't breath the same air your kids breath.

And WHO report on climate change, and how to rebuild a greener future after covid. I may actually read that one.

[orathaic]

Just realised as well, the Hong Kong patient's second infection could have been asymptomatic because that is what roughly 15% of all cases look like... But we can't tell if reinfection are equally likely to be asymptomatic or more likely, since we only have one data point.

[Randomizer]

The patient might just have a better than average immune system which was why it was milder than most cases. Those with the worst immune system usually die so there isn't a second infection or testing to see. Those that survive with poor immune systems may avoid another infection just because they are more susceptible to other infections in their current condition.

There isn't proper data and testing is being cut back in the US.

[Octavious]

Just realised as well, the Hong Kong patient's second infection could have been asymptomatic because that is what roughly 15% of all cases look like... But we can't tell if reinfection are equally likely to be asymptomatic or more likely, since we only have one data point.

Roughly 15 percent based on what?

I have seen various studies that estimate the percentage of asymptomatic cases, and they have produced a range of estimates varying from 0% to over 80%. Where do you get 15% from?

[Octavious]

But even if this particular patient is not harmed, he could have spread it to others. Estimates I've heard suggest 70% of the world's population needing to be infected before we can go back to 'normal'... But if they keep spreading and killing the uninfected after that, it is still not ideal

True, but the World Health Organisation have consistently said, and continues to say, that asymptomatic cases are not only harder to detect, but much less likely to spread the virus.

This also suggests that children spreading the disease will not be a big problem for schools going back. What evidence we have on this is limited, but what exists is very positive. Denmark's experience with opening schools certainly is.

[Randomizer]

This also suggests that children spreading the disease will not be a big problem for schools going back. What evidence we have on this is limited, but what exists is very positive. Denmark's experience with opening schools certainly is.

The US back to school results are dramatically different with recently reopened schools having to close as large numbers of children test positive within a week of starting. From elementary schools to colleges, the numbers haven't been good.

[Octavious]

This also suggests that children spreading the disease will not be a big problem for schools going back. What evidence we have on this is limited, but what exists is very positive. Denmark's experience with opening schools certainly is.

The US back to school results are dramatically different with recently reopened schools having to close as large numbers of children test positive within a week of starting. From elementary schools to colleges, the numbers haven't been good.

Could you put some flesh on those bones? What schools have recently reopened and what dates are we talking about? How many children have tested positive? How many schools have decided to close?

[Octavious]

I have to admit I was under the impression that US schools started in September at a similar time to England's

[Randomizer]

US schools start as early as the first week in August although most start in September. Ny computer browser is a bit old so couldn't open some web sites.

Ohio State Univiersity
https://radio.wosu.org/post/ohio-state- ... ol-testing

scroll down for Arizona school closures:
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/lo ... 633537002/

Privately created national database by state (since most won't provide):
https://app.smartsheet.com/b/publish?EQ ... 2fc66dca13

[flash2015]

I assumed in general southern states finish earlier/start earlier (like Florida and Texas) while northern states like NY/NJ generally finish later/start later (in NY schools finish late June and start early September).

[flash2015]

Coming from Australia I am really not a fan of these long summer breaks...as they make the breaks through the rest of the year too small to do anything useful (e.g. I would prefer the summer break was three weeks shorter but an extra week was added to Christmas, February break and Spring break.

[orathaic]

Just realised as well, the Hong Kong patient's second infection could have been asymptomatic because that is what roughly 15% of all cases look like... But we can't tell if reinfection are equally likely to be asymptomatic or more likely, since we only have one data point.

Roughly 15 percent based on what?

That is based on this study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.26326
It also mentions pre-symtomatic at about 49%.(which I believe is those people who tested positive before showing any symptoms, but who later developed symptoms, and may greatly confuse the numbers of 'true' asymptomatic carriers... Which is a phrase I'm making up).

But even if this particular patient is not harmed, he could have spread it to others. Estimates I've heard suggest 70% of the world's population needing to be infected before we can go back to 'normal'... But if they keep spreading and killing the uninfected after that, it is still not ideal

True, but the World Health Organisation have consistently said, and continues to say, that asymptomatic cases are not only harder to detect, but much less likely to spread the virus.

This also suggests that children spreading the disease will not be a big problem for schools going back. What evidence we have on this is limited, but what exists is very positive. Denmark's experience with opening schools certainly is.

The other research suggests the two days before symptoms develop and the two days after are the points in time where people are most infectious. Ie highest viral load/shedding the most - I'm not really clear on how you measure shedding... Is it a blood test? Also, I'm not clear on the asymptomatic 15%...

Other countries school ré-openings don't fill me with confidence. Maybe Denmark has done something different - but I see others have addressed this.

It is possible the WHO have updated their advice. I don't know. But that sounds like an initial assumption (ie if you aren't coughing then you are less likely to spread the virus) whereas we now seem to have evidence from contact tracing which contradicts that. But this comes from the CDC:

Recent evidence suggests that children likely have the same or higher viral loads in their nasopharynx compared with adults7 and that children can spread the virus effectively in households and camp settings.

see:https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... c-hcp.html

[Randomizer]

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-reinfec ... 15241.html

Four confirmed cases of second infection in the world and the first US case has the patient in worse health than his first time.