MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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teacher2
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#861 Post by teacher2 » Fri May 11, 2018 8:53 pm

@rdr: The tie is akin to nolynch, with the sinilar arguments and we know we come out differently on that. Plus, I don’t think first time scum necessarily knows your thoughts on why a tie is better. But I’m a bit off him anyways. I never did a reanalysis post daybreak because it had been quiet, but I need too. I don’t have a mental structure of the current game and am drifting a bit. Hopefully I can fix that overnight tonight. Happy weekend people.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#862 Post by Telamor » Fri May 11, 2018 9:41 pm

ghug wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:09 pm
Telamor wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:07 pm
I feel like the proof he's pushing against Balki is pretty weak and has the feel of Peter trying to convince us more by repetition than argument.
But why do you presume Balki's town?

What would you say if I told you that that's Peter's argumentative style regardless of alignment?
I'd have to take you at your word. Accusing someone of being scum on the basis of a joke post made by a VT on day one seems a bit weak to me. That said I still Don't really understand why we lynched who we lynched on D1.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#863 Post by Telamor » Fri May 11, 2018 10:14 pm

Ezio wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 7:54 pm
##Vote Telemor.
He's dumb-acting. It's one thing to ask dumb questions to an individual for questioning, and another entirely to just say "I don't know anything about anything". Very common scum tactic for a new player.

Glad to see we're not lynching Ike. We're not gonna lynch him until LyLo/MyLo.

Balki is town. Peterlund is also town. I'll be back to townclear more people later.
How many new players do you guys get and who is keeping a file on how they act? You, Prado, and Yav have each attempted to put yourselves forwards as newbie experts without saying anything of value. If course I'm asking dumb questions we have one person that can actually discover things and the rest of the game is based on interpreting what people say and how they vote. Given I Don't know any of you all I can do is read messages and see what the rest of you are using to base your judgements. At the same time I'm trying to figure out what the second language you guys all speak is.

On top of that I have people like you accusing me of not talking enough, not contributing anything of value, and then when I do try and contribute of asking dumb questions!

For those that are interested I am Vanilla Town (which is what I assume VT means?) and I don't really know what I'm looking for. I can tell Peter has been putting forward a lot of opinions and questions while ghug seems to be acting as a sounding board. Dargoyle seems to write a lot as does RHK although most of his stuff seems to be asking questions of others. Teacher has a lot of theories and is probably up there with Peter in terms of quantity of thoughts but I'm still trying to figure out what the quality of thought is. After all we've only managed to lynch town thus far so I don't know what a successful scum hunt looks like.

Ike seems like he's trying to absolve himself through flagellance but I'm not sure how flagellating not voting really is. I can only see it being a benefit to us if he's scum but I'm not sure if that's the case. Jamie hasn't said a huge amount and I haven't really noticed Snow or StressedLines and until just now I hasn't seen much from you either Ezio. But as one good turn deserves another:

##VoteEzio
Also
#PradoIsAPaedo

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#864 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 11, 2018 10:28 pm

Welcome, Ezio. It appears a little pressure voting has persuaded you to participate. I like what you've posted in the last couple of pages.

##Unvote

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#865 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 11, 2018 10:29 pm

@Telamor

Your initial Prado/Paedo post was an error, I get that, but now I think you're being slightly offensive. I'm sure TrPrado is not a paedophile and it's not funny to imply otherwise.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#866 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 11, 2018 10:34 pm

##Vote Peterlund

His case on Balki is forced, and based on flimsy assumptions. In particular the idea that Xorxes was leaning towards a scumread on Balki but was, Peter asserts, "going to" firm up that scumread in some mythical future time... this assertion requires an ability to predict the future thoughts of someone who is now dead. Bullshit.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#867 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 11, 2018 10:35 pm

To be clear, I'm not voting Peter because I think he's wrong, I'm voting him because I think his push on Balki is manufactured, forced, fake.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#868 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 11, 2018 10:52 pm

Telamor wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:14 pm
. Jamie hasn't said a huge amount...
This is my 81st post, and I am the fourth most prolific poster in the game.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#869 Post by RagingIke297 » Fri May 11, 2018 11:05 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:52 pm
Telamor wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:14 pm
. Jamie hasn't said a huge amount...
This is my 81st post, and I am the fourth most prolific poster in the game.
What makes Telamor's sentence much funnier is that there is a real possibility he won't even reach 81 posts for the entire game

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#870 Post by rdrivera2005 » Fri May 11, 2018 11:16 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:52 pm
Telamor wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:14 pm
. Jamie hasn't said a huge amount...
This is my 81st post, and I am the fourth most prolific poster in the game.
Quantity is not quality. Just saying...

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#871 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 11, 2018 11:42 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 11:16 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:52 pm
Telamor wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:14 pm
. Jamie hasn't said a huge amount...
This is my 81st post, and I am the fourth most prolific poster in the game.
Quantity is not quality. Just saying...
Fair comment, and if he wishes to attack the *substance* of my posts, I am willing to hear what he has to say. But to suggest I haven't said much is simply wrong.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#872 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri May 11, 2018 11:48 pm

DemonRHK wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 6:44 pm

@Jamie - Based off of N1, what is your general opinion of the exp and skill level of the scum team, based off what we know/don’t know?
Ok then. Well, my opinion is that our scumteam is probably quite experienced. I say that because we're now in mid D2 and nobody is obvscum. With 4 or 5 new players in this game it's reasonable to assume there is at least one new player on the scumteam but if so, they have not yet slipped.

It's possible that one or two of the scum are lurking. Stressedines concerns me most in this regard. He seems totally out of his depth and on a quick re-read, he has contributed nothing beyond apologising for not participating.

##VOTE STRESSEDLINES

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#873 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sat May 12, 2018 12:21 am

Okay, I just re-read Day 1.

A couple of things stand out to me:

(1) If RagingIke is scum, then TrPrado and Thamrick are likely town. See Post 151 re TrpRado and Post 191 re Thamrick. Both of them interact with RagingIke early in a way that I would not expect RagingIke's scumbuddy to interact with him. Thamrick also cast an important vote on RagingIke on page 20, that put RagingIke in serious danger.

(2) I don't understand Teacher's progression on Bozo. On page 14, Teacher says he was a "townlean" on Bozo and seems to view him quite favorably. Teacher also has a hard town read on RagingIke at that point, and a large lynchpool: "My lynch/compromise pool at this point is (Xorxes, PeterLund, Ezio, Reedeer, Snowy)."

On page 23, Teacher does an about face on Bozo without explaining any change in behavior. In fact, Teach says Bozo is scum for "lurking," something that Bozo had certainly been doing earlier when Teach er called him a "townlean" too. Teacher says this on 23: “@Bozo: Im on the same wagon youre on, but have scummed you from lurking, and you come out of lurk to OMGUS scum me? Seems like youre preparing for this to be a mislynch…. Bozo is in my PoE pool and Id be down.”

(3) If RagingIke is Scum, then Reedeer is almost certainly Town. With 5 minutes to go in the phase, RagingIke and Bozo were tied at 6 votes each. RagingIke said: "I really need someone to flip Bozo,” and then reedeer voted RagingIke. No way Scum Reedeer does that to Scum RagingIke on Day 1.

(4) If RagingIke is Scum, then there were likely a few scum on the Bozo train already or otherwise locked in/unavailable. If RagingIke was scum, we was out there looking for help to flip Bozo, and he could not find any such help without claiming PR.

QUESTION:
@teacher, would you please explain your Bozo progression from page 14 to page 23?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#874 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sat May 12, 2018 12:52 am

Anyone around to engage with me?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#875 Post by RagingIke297 » Sat May 12, 2018 12:56 am

I'm here Balki, reads are almost done. I can chat

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#876 Post by teacher2 » Sat May 12, 2018 1:04 am

I will let the board judge this one since its personal to me. Does this strike anyone else as a clear misrepresentation?

What he said I said:
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 12:21 am
On page 14, Teacher says he was a "townlean" on Bozo and seems to view him quite favorably.
What I actually said I:
teacher2 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 3:41 am
[*]Bozo: Two posts, with one sentence explanations of votes (including RVS on silent slot). Believe claim regarding Ezio’s meta though, because others (incl. dargorygel) said same. Townlean with lurk noted.
I dont see "lurk noted" (which Balki omits) on a spot with only one real post (that I trust "because others" confirm it) can possibly be described as a "quite favorably"

What he said I did:
teacher2 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 3:41 am
On page 23, Teacher does an about face on Bozo without explaining any change in behavior.
What I actually did:
On page 19 -- not 23 -- I explain why I am now open to lynching Bozo:
teacher2 wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 6:29 pm
Could potentially hammer Bozo given the several meta comments and lurking.
I have played with none of you all before, so I didnt read into Bozo's lurking on page 14 (none had). After that, but before 19 (again, not 23) dargorygel, Thamrick, BALKI, and ghug all read his play as consistent with his scummeta, so I accepted that and started scumming him.

As for 23, what happened was Bozo came out of lurk to tie the PeterLund wagon, and I quickly followed to make Peter lead. Within 10 minutes, Bozo scumread me. As Ive said before, it felt like scum was coming out of lurk to push the PeterLund wagon and set me up to take the fall. That is why I unvoted first, to analyze the board (the bot didnt catch it), and went to Bozo after as my hardest scumread since I did town Ike.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#877 Post by RagingIke297 » Sat May 12, 2018 1:25 am

Alrighty, I am home now and here are the reads as promised. The plus or minus is how far up or down the chain people moved, the person I most want to lynch is 1. Ergo, pluses are good and mean that person moved away from the lynch end, minuses are bad and mean that person moved close to the lynch end.

Lynch

1. snowy801 (+-0) - Snowy has just been off, he's not contributing, he's posted 32 times but has the lowest words per post ratio of every player. Maybe he's trying to make it past day 3, I don't know, but we all know he is capable of better and it needs to start showing
2. ghug (+-0) - I don't have a good feeling about Ghug, he goes between This is you tryharding again and I'm avoiding giving opinions on too many people. Not sure how to make him happy, but the game's not about that. Recapping what I've said about him, I think that he is scum and got me to out by forcing that wagon on me d1 since he saw a difference in my play. I also don't like that he changed his mind on if I should claim my full role.
3. Telamor (-4) - Day 2, Page 35. I am not shy retiring violet by nature at this point he has made 5 posts, I get he's new but that level of activity seems like the amount a shy retiring violet would do. His timing on his posts seems off and seems to know more than what he lets on sometimes. Pg. 38 and 42. Respectively I'm not sure I understand your logic here. Surely a night 1 kill would be ideal against a PR(Power Role?) as it'd dispose of you before you had a potential chance to copscan and start leaving clues for town to follow after you're dead.I'm confused. If Ike has claimed a PR but for some reason the Maf didn't either kill or RB him why are we lynching Snowy?
4. Yavuzovic (+-0) - He's still not Yav, I said it before but he doesn't have the conviction I remember him having in games past. I get that he may be busy, but this Jamie is also on my suspect list. I haven't read him yet but I saw his vote on bozo without explanation.. Why would you ever allow a glance at the forum to affect your reads? Also, most of the meat of his last 10 posts is defending his inactivity. You can do better Yav.
5. thamrick (+2) – I had a hard time moving Thamrick down 2 slots, maybe it’s just because I came in so heavy on him D1. Both of the people he slotted as hard scum (xorxes and myself) are both town, and one of the three he slotted as slight scum (bozo) was also town. He did a vote analysis and asked a few questions but I’m not buying it.
6. DemonRHK (-7) – Probably a little bit of OMGUS, but this dude needs to quit going after me or come after me with a solid case. If you really are PR throwing a temper tantrum and borderline refusing to play helps no one. Which I’m not doing and haven’t gotten an answer as to where my tantrum was. He aldo said that I asked someone who to vote for when I clearly haven’t. Alright so maybe a lot of OMGUS, but I’m not seeing any effort since he went after me.
7. rdrivera2005 (-11) – He was much higher, but I don’t like the way he played EOD1 his scum reads were Xorxes, Ike, Reedeer, Peterlund, DrCJG, when I asked him why I was on there he said Honestly, I want to make it five :smirk: then he voted me to “make things interesting”. I just don’t see it adding up
8 to 13 is where I slotted lurkers
8. dargorygel (-9) couldn’t decide if I should be slotting Dargy as a lurker or not, but then this stuck out a little to me After a quick catch up read, Ezio looks a bit better... and my vote isn't doing any real work there. My other possibles are Ike, Snowy, and Bozo. I hate voting and leaving... but i don't want to leave my vote on Ezio.
Ike doesn't need any extra votes to be lynched (looks like that is the likely end at this point... which I don't mind.)
Voting for Snowy, which is my next real choice would also be a waste.
But if I vote for Bozo, it puts him in range in case there is movement later.
Happy with Ike, Bozo, or snowy... but less happy with peter.
Bozo and myself are town and I feel like Snowy is scum. Dargy set himself up here if snowy is indeed scum to give himself some town cred without actually doing anything. We’ll see how that plays out
9. reedeer1 (+1) - EOD 1 I guess I have to switch then. @@vote bozo, but we need to talk has posted 2 words since then. BE MORE ACTIVE
10. Stressedlines (+1) I have. Few theories which seem to.be echoed by 1 other so I'm gonna keep reading and see how long til I start offering my personal thoughts By all means, share. I don’t have enough to go on for all these lurkers.
11. Ezio (+1) Doesn’t feel like Ezio to post this on D1 What're you thinking to gain by voting noLynch? Glad he also feels that Telamor is off though
12. Chaqa (+1) 3 posts on day 2 is not enough, I don’t care who you are.
13. DrCJG (+7) – I’m not 100% sure how I feel about him yet, slotted him as a lurker but in the highest lurker slot. I get a better feeling from him than I do the other newbies besides teacher, we’ll see how I feel when his post count picks up a bit
14. peterlund (+9) - Peter looks like he got a huge boost, but its only because I moved him above the lurkers and others moved down. I have some news to come with. I have produced a hunch list of my slight scums and they currently are: Xorxes, Ike, Jamie, Ezio again Xor and myself are town. I think the reason I went after him yesterday was more self-preservation than I think he’s scum. He was kind of lurkey but I don’t know his meta. Jury is still out on Peter for me.
15. TrPrado (-1) – Hasn’t been super active yet day 2, but seemed to be asking good questions d1. Scum reads Jamie pretty heavily, if he does manage to get Jamie to flip that would obviously call for my read to change. I would like to see some updated reads.

16. Balki Bartokomous (+4) – I don’t see scum holstering or RB/Killing Xorxes so that Balki can claim. Forced me to give out focused reads d1 with reasons why I scum read who I did. I just get an overall town feeling from Balki
17. Jamiet99uk (+3) – Overall town vibes from Jamie. He is much less emotional this game, not sure if that’s a good or bad thing. I would like to know the rest of the story behind this from page 8 though I was going to say something about Dargorygel but on second thoughts I'll leave it for later.
18. teacher2 (+3) – doesn’t seem to be holding anything back, is playing and is playing extremely openly and provoking thought. Has two reads lists and is just a general breath of fresh air given the status of the other newbies.

Don't Lynch

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#878 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sat May 12, 2018 1:29 am

@teacher,

That's a helpful response.

When you say that you think I misrepresent you, are you thinking that I'm doing something sinister here? Just checking to see your interpretation of it. I obviously did not lay out the entire sequence in quotes, but I think I presented it fairly.

Thanks for pointing to that post on 19. I think I saw that post too during my re-read, but here is why it did not strike me as a good explanation for you changing from "townlean" on Bozo to "lynchpool" on Bozo -- you had already identified Bozo as lurking in your reads post. So, it just seemed odd that you noted that Bozo was a lurker early on, but leaned town on him, and then you noted that he was a lurker later and said he could go in your lynchpool.

The meta piece is something that did not register with me when I was reading your posts, and I do see what you mean now. I do recall I said something to the effect of "I was recently scum with Bozo, and he acted lurky like this, so he could be scum Bozo now," though I also said that I did not have good meta of Town Bozo in mind, so this could just be how he is all the time.

Bottom-line, you pointing to this meta explanation makes some sense, and helps fill in the picture of how a Town Teacher narrative makes sense here too.

My Scum Teacher narrative for this is that your Scumbuddy RagingIke emerged as a real lynch target, and you added Bozo as another lynch target because you wanted more flexibility to save RagingIke. But, I don't know Ike's alignment yet, and I'm not sure this narrative makes complete sense just yet, so I'm still somewhere in the middle with my Teacher read.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#879 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sat May 12, 2018 1:35 am

@RagingIke, are you going to vote today? If not, why?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#880 Post by TrPrado » Sat May 12, 2018 1:41 am

So I'm going to formally apologize because I haven't been paying attention very much here. As previously mentioned, I've been getting settled in for the summer. But now I'm sitting down with my computer and going to properly read this. I'm going to ask one more time and hope someone gives a better answer than Jamie did before I finish my read.

Why are we intending to lynch Ezio today?

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