MAFIA LVIII (58) - WITCHFINDER GENERAL - GAME THREAD

[summit_fever]

ghug never mentioned rivera by name. Every instance is because of a quote.

He posted this which I thought strange at the time:

Man, Fox, why you just engaging him on that fluff post, instead of calling him out. Also your reasoning is way too fluffy, scum kill players with good reads all the time, because noone ever listens to the dead anyway and its a vote less heading your way.

Why do people townread Rdrivera again?

Because I am obviously town?

Scum wouldn't say this.

I read it as sarcasm.

ghug was much more willing to mention yoyo/bob by name, with a mild townread to go along with it.

Here's a weird post with yoyo/bob:

Yeah but I didn't care when I was routinely winning games.

Flum still respects me and he's the GOAT, so I'll fall back on that.

I don't even know who you scum read here

Prado, Brian, kinda worcej, probably at least one of Vecna/bo/bozo. Feels like Yoyo's replacement triggered a lot of movement to flash, either because someone saw an opportunity to save him or because they thought pressure was going to drop off and wanted a new wagon to push.

[summit_fever]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVoFLM_BDgs

Prado's mood before he tells people what he ate for breakfast.

[Durga]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVoFLM_BDgs

Prado's mood before he tells people what he ate for breakfast.

+1

[seth24c]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVoFLM_BDgs

Prado's mood before he tells people what he ate for breakfast.

Skeleton on park bench meme also comes to mind.

[summit_fever]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVoFLM_BDgs

Prado's mood before he tells people what he ate for breakfast.

Skeleton on park bench meme also comes to mind.

lol

[Hamilton Brian]

I didn't pick up on this the day of; just noticed it. At the end of Day 3, Bozo was on Worcej's wagon. He then encouraged Fox's voters to move. Then, in the last minute, he votes BobMcBob, then votes Worcej again. Was that him voting to force a flip by any means necessary?

His observations on Bo are interesting. Perhaps I was premature in my previous assessment.

[BobMcBob]

Bob, why can't you actually write a normal reply to me instead of burying your responses in the middle of a wall of text?

I’ll create quotes for you, Bob, since you’re too useless to use the tool yourself. This is gonna be Q&A style, I guess, with my questions italicized.

The rest of this post, though… what is it? It seemed like you were about to make a point and prove it, but then you just didn’t.

I don't know, I guess I just didn't elaborate properly

You went off on a tangent that had nothing to do with what you were talking about. What did you intend to elaborate that you did not convey properly?

Well that's the thing, I had an idea, and just didn't elaborate. I just put it out there and started talking about something else. I think my point may have been bunny voters were idiots?

I don’t understand the uncertainty about Yoyo.

Already addressed

Not to any satisfactory degree. Please address this.

Because I could not see any reason why people were scumreading yoyo, and so I wanted to poke them to see if i could find out, but decided to read yoyo first to see if I could see why and because i was told to do it anyway in my previous game as sub and when I didn't find anything I decided to just prod people to find out.

Who is guaranteed town?

Me of course

It read as if you were referring to Prado. Regardless, you did not have a single vote on you, and this was 5 hours before EOD. Why are you concerned about dying?

What are you talking about exactly? I had 4 votes on me at this time if my memory serves me, next closest wagons both having 2, and I voted flash before going to bed because I wanted to vote in a way to protect myself as well, because I couldn't react to EoD, and so I parked my vote on the reasonably scummy flash.

Please provide us with your (vote count) analysis.

I thought I could get something but it turned out to be quite lame and I kinda couldn't be bothered. Durga is almost certainly town because of Chaqa, but then I couldn't get anything much from D3. Like there are some late movers but I didn't find them overly suspicious, and i think the most likely explanation is most of them were just moving to the two clearly leading wagons and trying to break the tie later. I could easily see scum hiding in that movement though. Durga emc and summit flip-flopped, but I don't think it's really indicative of anything. Could be a confusion tactic, could be tie-breaking. Summit was the first voter in the stampede, which is interesting, and fox tied the vote earlier, which is more interesting.

Why is summit being the first voter interesting, and why is Fox tying the vote more interesting? It would be helpful if you could share your thought process with the class as opposed to empty conclusions.

It's just that they were distinct, significant events that probably affected the voting a lot that day, especially Fox's. He said he tied it to "make things interesting". I just found it interesting that he decided to tie the vote there but was unsure what conclusions should be made. I guess I was just pointing it out to see if someone else could work out anything.

Are your scumreads based on analysis?

Very cursory analysis, yes.

What’s the analysis? How did you come to the conclusions you reached?

Gut feelings and vibes mostly. Combined with a really brief look at what they have (or haven't) done. Most time efficient way to read people imo, and allows me to chuck them into those two camps pretty easily and start working on one of them, like I did soon after. Like for example seth I get precocious, confident, noob town kind of vibes that I doubt I'd get if he was scum. Rdr I get a coasting, unimpactful player who has no townie votes. Later I expanded that into a full, somewhat decent, case.

I don’t know how your responses to me could have been more empty than they were other than by just not replying. The point of this game isn’t to be right and then close the page; it’s to convince others, and to be open to being convinced by others, of the conclusions you should be reaching. You don’t accomplish that by posting things with absolutely nothing to substantiate them, and you do all of us trying to figure out who you are no favors when you act like we’re dumb and lazy for not knowing what goes on in your head.

I'm not sure you'd read my cases at this point but I feel like those weren't empty. Most of my other posts had ideas, but no fleshing out of them, which is still not exactly empty. And my responses to you were not empty either I don'rt feel. Unless you consider anything that isn't overflowing with content "empty".

[summit_fever]

Bob that's really hard to read and if anybody wants to quote you out of that it's going to be even harder.

[seth24c]

So you didn't think it was important to vote for either of the top wagons? Do you or did you have reads on bob/worcej? I'm getting the feeling you just don't want to be blamed or found suspicious for voting.

At that particular point, no, I didn't feel it was necessary to vote for those particular wagons.

I had a negative read on YoyoBob. However, I shifted my vote off of them.

I have no read on Worcej, even with the theatre from Day 2.

My logic on the matter of voting is that there is something way more suspicious about someone jumping on a runaway wagon with one minute to go than someone setting aside a vote based on conviction. I felt strongest about Bob on Day 2 and cast my final vote there. I felt strongest about you on Day 3, and set my final vote there. I don't like last-minute jumping. I view it as negatively as being the first person to hammer a day's end. Now, if in Mafia theory, this is a fallacy in play, then I'll stand corrected.

But suspicion shouldn't matter if you are town right? Shouldn't all your motives be to help the town win? If you felt so strongly about bob day two you didn't feel you still had a good enough reason to flip him day three? To me that just doesn't sound town motivated because you are giving greater potential for scum to sway the wagons if you don't make your vote count as town.

Now if your only intention is to avoid suspicion and stay alive that makes sense as the witch/warlock in my opinion. If you hadn't tunneled me so long I would honestly think that it was possible you were the witch (obviously not warlock because of voting) but that is throwing me off.

[Hamilton Brian]

TrP, did it occur to you to write your case out first, save it, then post your “it’s time” post?

[Hamilton Brian]

Seth, yes, every motivation of mine should be to make sure town wins. We’re just going to have to disagree about it at this point. Bozo succinctly addressed the issue and I am going to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

[TrPrado]

I am absolutely certain that BO is the WARLOCK. I was perfectly fine waiting to post this because it's 3P and we can focus on catching scum separate from this, but his behavior absolutely tracks when you start rolling with that assumption. As an aside, I imagine people might be disappointed this isn't about the scum team, and yeah I agree but also I didn't want it to get this hyped up in the first place. Perhaps we could try to get the scum to use a kill on him?

It started D2, when Vecna voted for HB. Bo reacted to it very strangely. He started pushing Vecna as a scum read

That's exactly what's going through my mind lol

Vecna would be very angry at flash if this was a scum vs scum no?

I'm not sure what you mean by scum vs scum, but the lightbulb in my head is saying Vecna and flash are teammates. Vecna bussed him, and then Vecna saw an opportunity to save flash by jumping on HB at an opportune time that made HB a runaway.

All theory until we flip flash, which I frankly think we should do anyway.

The biggest red flag for me here was remembering that bo had recently said

What kind of garbage cover-your-ass hedging is this, ScumBo?

Do you want to read my last few posts where I come to that conclusion or just quote things out of context and act like you're smart?

Like I catch the guy in a lie, and then he just says "I'm not going to answer you" and leaves, and what do you expect, me to think that's super townie? He's fucking scum, I'm sticking with him. But I also scumread HB and have made that much clear.

It feels like a bit of an excessive reaction, but I didn't really think it would track as a scummy reaction. Who would be his teammate here? HB? That hinges on a lot. I dismissed it in my mind for a long while for that reason.

When I first had the epiphany was late D3. He spent the day voting for worcej and then we got the seth "scumslip"

That's an odd way to scumslip but I do think it's more likely than not a scumslip.

But after this he became particularly defensive of seth. He went from it being an out an out scumslip to immediate presumption of town and then upset when people were starting to make a seth wagon

That's true. I suppose I can accept it not being a scumslip since that wasn't actually his role. Fiiiiiiiine

Huh, isn't it even weirder that he used "Matthew" instead of calling him the lie detector?

It's weird regardless, but he's referring to him as a role that he didn't have. I can buy that as a joke that coincidentally looks suspicious now, and thus I am presuming seth town.

I honestly kinda wanna day kill Seth

Any reason other than because I said not to?

Why are we flipping seth >_>

This gave me the strong impression of him not liking late day movement. He never moved off of worcej at any point. He was out for blood for worcej and never really adjusted that push. Nothing indicates that he even changed his read either.

When these pieces came together and I started looking at bo in a new light I looked back at D2 and flash being his warlock pick would certainly make sense, but that brings up the question of why would bo have picked flash? Off the top of my head I couldn't remember much about flash's early game or who read him how. At the time I was a tad busy and asked people if someone could look into whether people were suspicious of flash before D2 (which I guess you can use as a marker for when I started looking into this theory)

Nobody answered so I looked into N1, and flash was rather abrasive about EOD leading to getting a fair amount of flak. Fox, HR, and ghug had all specifically said they thought he was scummy and they were willing to pursue him as the daykill, and Durga had also called him out for his low posting. So flash was catching heat from major players and as a low poster may not be able to fight back so easily.

So it is perfectly reasonable for flash to be a warlock pick, and then worcej is the obvious warlock pick for D3 as he was among the most widely scumread N2 for staying on the HB wagon.

So what about today? Well, bo has rather abandoned his push on worcej. The rest of the town hopped off of such wide scum read of him before bo did but now he is largely ignoring someone he was rather adamant about on the previous day.

THIS is what I wanted to use today for and why I didn't say anything immediately. Without any particular evolution of his read on worcej, he has chosen to push Bob, someone who had been catching flak, not much of it having been displaced. Bo left his options open to include this person he has largely not mentioned until N3.

This all is rather bizarre, and now his individual pushes. N1 I got the impression he was all on board with pushing summit so D2 I got him to vote for him but was largely a wet rag and hardly mentioned summit at all.

I'm torn between scumreading flash and being irked by how lazy this is.

Why? Flash is doing exactly what I was critical of HB and damo for doing on day 1. I missed it until I reread him after a couple posts today, so I’m down to put some pressure on him. Is it lazy to you because someone else started the wagon and I joined in on it to give it some credence or because I didn’t write an essay explaining why I did it?

HB’s vote on Flash later is definitely lazy, and his unvote screams “oops I didn’t mean to be in this situation” to me. Bozo’s makes some sense as a “gotcha” but I’m not sure why it only occurred to him he could vote for flash after numerous other people had. Got any views on those, or any of the other votes for flash that I’m not remembering in the moment?

This quote seems largely based more around justifying other people being on the wagon where he previously mentioned flash as "new blood"

If youre going to make claims like this, give me some examples.

Because this is how I literally play every single game.... (but then again, every single game there is always someone throwing this exact argument at my face).

Perhaps I am remembering wrong, I remember you in the past leading town rather than being the follower you are in this game. I remember you writing page long cases on people. They may have turned out to be wrong...but they seem to have put more thought into them than the cases you have created this game. You have no case on me apart from claiming I am a low poster. You can't find anything better on anyone else?

Why was your EOD1 focus on "compliance" instead of scum?

Asking a question of flash that was not unique to flash.

I am not changing my vote, I'm confident flash is scum, but I'm not opposed to HB today and flash later on.

I mentioned another quote of him saying largely the same thing but again his actions later are not fully in compliance with this.

Then the next day

Chaqa-ghug-worcej-yoyo/Bob? Hmmmm.

I'm probably missing something, but I just started 4 pages back. You're voting for me, but you're not scumreading me?

Jesus, I missed that post from Bob the first time. Thanks for reposting. Bob's posts are like an old can of Miller Lite. Definitely not filling and doesn't taste great.

I'm still reading Worcej but coming up with ugh.

Super suspicious of Bob, Seth, Bo_. The only caveat is that when pushed Seth goes to some lengths to lay out some research (pro-town?). Still has avoided my questions to them, though.

I feel like those that are 3p would play a different style; not sure how it would differ from their typical town play.

Let me get this straight. You miss a post, someone else quotes it, you read it, and immediately they jump to the top of your scumreads. You don’t have anything of your own, it’s just that post. Is that accurate?

You’re reading worcej, but coming up with nothing. Does that mean he is a null read?

Why are you super suspicious of Bob, Seth, and Bo_?

What do you expect to see from the third party?

omg lmao you think 100% that i get chaqa lynched and tunnel on ghug when no one else was? as scum?

Why not. It is entirely possible.

Have you considered the possibility that Durga is not scum but also is not town? I don’t read it that way, for what it’s worth, but every time you say this I a) have no idea what is with your fixation on Chaqa being bussed by one of his early voters, and b) feel more and more as if there is a reason you’re not explicating clearly why you want Durga dead.

Okay - hold on. So, witch auto wins if our 2 PR's die right? So... We should kill for 3p? Not sure how to go about doing this

Yes, the witch auto wins and town and mafia both lose if all PRs are dead.

TBF - I think bozo is the 3P and not scum.

Nvm.

Your defensiveness seems unwarranted when you factor in the reality that no one listens to me.

Why should people listen to you?

Forget what I said about Bo_. After looking at voting and comments, as annoyed as I am with the friggin' walls of text (because I think that distracts and can throw town off), I am convinced Bo_ is town. Voting seems decent and uncontroversial. That frustration and annoyance that comes through seems righteously town, even if their read on Damo was absolutely incorrect.

Pretty convinced that Bo_ is town. So that's 2 that I am certain about.

Back into the depths of it.

My read on damo was absolutely fucking spot on. He was doing everything I said he was doing, and his role was the reason why. He just wasn’t mafia, and made a great read on a player that many of us, myself included, weren’t confident enough to pursue.

This sounds like advice to your teammate if you get killed today.

This post won't age well when I flip VT.

Why in the everloving fuck would you say this, true or not?

I’m going to reread worcej before EOD, but for now, worcej, if you want to hang I’m not one to deny you the opportunity. I assume you’ll change your mind. ##VOTE worcej

This is largely his entrance into the day, so very shortly after he arrives he starts this particular push

And worcej voting for yourself, can you also help coalesce? You're not being helpful if you're town, and you're probably being even less helpful to your wincon if you're not town.

This in particular is odd. With just making a large post and then going on to make more long posts, why this? Was this not worth factoring into a read? It sounds like it should be and yet makes no difference.

And today I previously point an instance of bo using an untruth to justify his push on Bob, who he is now voting for.

Who is guaranteed town?

Me of course

It read as if you were referring to Prado. Regardless, you did not have a single vote on you, and this was 5 hours before EOD. Why are you concerned about dying?

He claimed this was a confusion of the bot, but he's looking into someone that he consistently acknowledges as a replacement for Yoyo and yet doesn't see that Yoyo was the top wagon at the time of the quote? I am absolutely not buying that, it was low hanging fruit. Why would he think Bob would look at that post and say "of course" and still think it made sense for him to consider himself that under threat. It's like Chaqa saying emc was "extremely motivated to survive" which was very clearly bs.

The vote for Bob today sealed the deal. I am fully confident in that we have the 3P figured out, if you want to vote for him, save him for later, or force the scum to use their nightkill on him that is a fully realized separate conversation to have.

[Hamilton Brian]

Holy shit!!!

[TrPrado]

TrP, did it occur to you to write your case out first, save it, then post your “it’s time” post?

That sounds rather boring

[summit_fever]

I continue to townread prado.

[Hamilton Brian]

I continue to townread prado.

Yes, I think so.

[Durga]

I continue to townread prado.

Because he made a case on 3p?

[Durga]

I'm just dumb then, I guess.

[summit_fever]

I continue to townread prado.

Because he made a case on 3p?

lol. I guess he could be scum wanting us to hunt the 3p for them. If I could figure out if ghug was bussing him or not this would be a lot easier.

[summit_fever]

I continue to townread prado.

Because he made a case on 3p?

lol. I guess he could be scum wanting us to hunt the 3p for them. If I could figure out if ghug was bussing him or not this would be a lot easier.

He could be the witch wanting us to believe there is a warlock in the game. Who knows?