MAFIA LVIII (58) - WITCHFINDER GENERAL - GAME THREAD

[bo_sox48]

Looks like my theory just got wiped out.

Do you believe him?

Honestly, yes I do at this point.

I would strongly believe the scum would RB stack on flash due to the potential of him being the doctor (which he was) and with that role eliminated, the RB should be spread around to potentially stop the two other PRs.

That's my guess as well, but it's dangerous to assume that here.

[Durga]

n1 ??? hr?
n2 flash (foolish if not)
n3 trprado ?

?? why not vecna?

[worcej]

[snip...]
I don't think there is scum on the first Chaqa voters. It was a fast movement closer to EOD, I don't think scum will join it so fast, at least before Flash claim. Emc could be an exception, but his vote with 4 minutes to go didn't look scum bus.

Worst looking votes are mine and Worcej. But I think both are town. So I think scum is between who vote Chaqa after Flash claim and who stayed away (like Ghug). So, we should be targeting between Bozo, seth, Fox, Bob and Bo. You already know my preference.

+1

[TrPrado]

One thing that does make me think you're scum is how you're latching on to me and Durga. In previous games where you've been up for the kill, you weren't so tunnely and actually tried to help town win. Here, not so much.

Okay wait what the fuck is happening here?

Fox was being incredibly evasive to my questioning.

I’m not a fan at all of his post yesterday where he said there was a TvT EOD between you and Bob then going hard against like he has. The “let’s make this interesting” vote for you right at the end

We probably should kill Worcej today, since it looks to me like today is TvT with a setup for a "Worcej was saved!" redux tomorrow. But if we did that, we'd just be killing Bob tomorrow.

This quote feels like it comes so out of nowhere. Fox had been pushing worcej all day, hedging it from time to time but still pushing. Then there’s this post that very heavy-handedly remarks worcej as town and the post after lists his scum reads as Rdrivera, summit, and myself. Then it’s like he just fucking forgot? His D4 has been incredibly defensive and his now scum reading of worcej is very confusing.

[Durga]

Okay, reading d2 I'm actually changing my mind on bo I think. I think some of his reactions have been non-mafia. And he has demonstrated a lot of thinking, and while I don't agree with that thinking always, it is hard to think when you're scum.

On the other hand, tr is deliberately ignoring me in the least townie way possible. And his interactions with ghug do not scream town tr to me.

What do people think of this team?
ghug-chaqa-trprado-yoyo/bob

Because this is what I'm leaning towards. I know I've switched it up like a million times but this is where I'm currently at. If I'm wrong about one of these (and if I am, I think it's yoyo/bob - because i'm starting to think its just a red herring bc of how much everyone is pushing this slot) then rdr or bo is likely it.

I don't know who 3p is but I'm fairly sure bozo, summit, worcej, emc, and fuck even seth probably are not mafia.

Thankfully we have two PRs + damo left. It feels like this is our game to lose.

Where does Fox, rdr, and HB land in your thoughts?

Kill should be between rdr/trprado imo

HB is almost certainly town given how he was treated by ghug/chaqa and there isn't much in his play that makes me think otherwise.

THe thing with Fox is people usually scum read him when he's town and feel he's really townie when he's scum so I'm applying my analysis to this game and still leaning town here. Sure he's had awkward statements and bad takes but if that was scummy in and of itself we're all doomed.

[Durga]

man, of all clears we could have had it just had to be absentee damo eh

[worcej]

Do you believe him?

Honestly, yes I do at this point.

I would strongly believe the scum would RB stack on flash due to the potential of him being the doctor (which he was) and with that role eliminated, the RB should be spread around to potentially stop the two other PRs.

That's my guess as well, but it's dangerous to assume that here.

I mean, I am only trying to say I am very confident that they RB'ed flash. Since no one claimed RB for N1, I assume it was stacked on HR because a self-saving doctor was still in play for N1.

Logically, since now the scum need to be concerned about investigative roles, moving the RB around is wise. It's factional, so we don't learn anything with them withholding it.

Oliver Cromwell has 2/3 odds of being an investigative role that can nail a scum.

Sara Lowes has a 1/3 shot of being a RB'er, but since the lack of claims have come out, I assume she is not that role and is instead an IC or Virgin.

[Hamilton Brian]

I know we're still trying to flip William Dowsing and Master Loach, but these 3p roles are important to keep in mind as well.

For the warlock: Each night you may make a prediction about who will be hung the next day. You MUST vote for that person at some point the following day but do not need to end on them. If they get 3 correct, they win.

I thought the witch had some sort of vote criteria, but they don't.

[Durga]

Idk I feel like Fox's thought process on worcej has been pretty similar to mine and I'm not scum sooooo :)

##vote rdr

i guess tr can live for now

[worcej]

man, of all clears we could have had it just had to be absentee damo eh

I know... two games in a row he landed a PR and is mechanically cleared and is not rising to the occasion

[Durga]

Virgin - Each day, you must vote for a suspect. If you are hanged or killed, the Mafia lose their kill on the night immediately following your death. If you are ever roleblocked, this effect is removed. You are part of the TOWN and win when the Mafia and the Third Party are defeated or nothing can stop this from happening.

Actually this role is a good reason for mafia to spread their rb around hm

[worcej]

God I could have done so many productive things in life in the time I've spent playing this damn game. Good night.

Yeah, I could be actually doing work but instead choose to get caught up...

[bo_sox48]

n1 ??? hr?
n2 flash (foolish if not)
n3 trprado ?

?? why not vecna?

Vecna was dying, so there's no point. There is a possible role (virgin) left out there that could necessitate a RB, and the only way to stop it is to spread the RB around.

[bo_sox48]

Virgin - Each day, you must vote for a suspect. If you are hanged or killed, the Mafia lose their kill on the night immediately following your death. If you are ever roleblocked, this effect is removed. You are part of the TOWN and win when the Mafia and the Third Party are defeated or nothing can stop this from happening.

Actually this role is a good reason for mafia to spread their rb around hm

Yeah that

[bo_sox48]

That said, the reason I say assuming that is dangerous is because if the mafia are aware of that mechanic, they could easily consider the RB a safe way to townclear themselves, and while thus the risk is 50/50 that a virgin exists the reward of not targeting them in order to ensure one of them can go deep into the game might be worth it.

[bo_sox48]

tl;dr idk

[Durga]

That said, the reason I say assuming that is dangerous is because if the mafia are aware of that mechanic, they could easily consider the RB a safe way to townclear themselves, and while thus the risk is 50/50 that a virgin exists the reward of not targeting them in order to ensure one of them can go deep into the game might be worth it.

i still absolutely hate how he presented it

[worcej]

This is after you accused me of tunneling on you!

Because I went ahead and did some research because I remembered this after I accused you. Turns out you do tunnel as town pretty regularly.

Worcej, what does this post even mean? You accused him of tunnelling and then decided after doing some research that it wasn't actually tunnelling? This post makes no sense.

I accused Fox of tunneling earlier in the game, but once that accusation was made he backed off. Once he backed off and stopped, that was when my concern rose.

Do you not understand that people can tunnel, then stop, and then tunnel again?

[bo_sox48]

That said, the reason I say assuming that is dangerous is because if the mafia are aware of that mechanic, they could easily consider the RB a safe way to townclear themselves, and while thus the risk is 50/50 that a virgin exists the reward of not targeting them in order to ensure one of them can go deep into the game might be worth it.

i still absolutely hate how he presented it

Yeah I'm with you there

[worcej]

That said, the reason I say assuming that is dangerous is because if the mafia are aware of that mechanic, they could easily consider the RB a safe way to townclear themselves, and while thus the risk is 50/50 that a virgin exists the reward of not targeting them in order to ensure one of them can go deep into the game might be worth it.

This is entirely possible. I am trying to put myself in scum's shoes and I would be of the mindset to ensure the following:

1. Only one member of the scum team is doing the kills to limit the potential impact of the Bloodhound.
2. Use the RB early on the target we are killing in case they are a doctor and are self saving.
3. Once done, spread the RB around to nerf the Virgin, Cop, and Bloodhound.