MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[Balki Bartokomous]

@ghug, should I claim my PR or wait? Why?

We are not going to counter you now, so what possible benefit is there to town from you claiming your exact role? There is none that I see.

[ghug]

@ghug, should I claim my PR or wait? Why?

We are not going to counter you now, so what possible benefit is there to town from you claiming your exact role? There is none that I see.

The benefit is that a PR dying by chance or another lynch forcing a claim could immediately help us catch scum. The downside is obvious.

[RagingIke297]

@ghug, should I vote today? I feel like its a decision the town should make. Inherently since I know my role I know its best for town if I vote, but no one else knows if that's truly the case or not

[Balki Bartokomous]

RagingIke -- have you ever been a PR before? If so, which game, and did you leave breadcrumbs in that game?

[RagingIke297]

I was a vengeful townie one game, but I couldn't tell you what I did. I know I lost

[Balki Bartokomous]

I was a vengeful townie one game, but I couldn't tell you what I did. I know I lost

Try to remember which game it was, and try to remember if you left breadcrumbs.

[Stressedlines]

I'm reading everything and then going back.many pages and re reading things. Just because I don't post a lot doea.not.mean im. Ot.payimt attention. I have. Few theories which seem to.be echoed by 1 other so I'm gonna keep reading and see how long til I start offering my personal thoughts

[RagingIke297]

I was a vengeful townie one game, but I couldn't tell you what I did. I know I lost

Try to remember which game it was, and try to remember if you left breadcrumbs.

M7, I don't think I did but I'll go look

[ghug]

@Stressed, you should just share what you think. There's no reason to hold anything back..

@Ike, you should absolutely vote today.

[DemonRHK]

The more I think about the RB, the worse Ike looks.

Going on the assumption that the Balki RB is legit (which I accept for now), why would you not rb or kill a power claim? The xorx death added into this suggests either a newer scumteam, or some 5D chutes & ladders. I don’t buy scum pulling WIFOM on power in such a vanilla setup.

Onto the RB, I’m still baffled by Balki as a target. Why him? If you’re going to random block wouldn’t you just full press on xorx in the event he gets saved, if you’re worried he’s power?

I don’t fully buy fearkill either, xorx wasn’t exactly uniamiously townread...

I’m talking in circles and confusing myself. I need to spend a few hours on the thread after work when I’m off mobile.

[RagingIke297]

@Stressed, you should just share what you think. There's no reason to hold anything back..

@Ike, you should absolutely vote today.

@ghug. Why?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Where is everyone? Why have we stalled?

Who is scum and why?

[RagingIke297]

I need to elaborate on the situations I stated earlier. From other peoples points of view looking at my situation, there are 10 possible outcomes to what just happened and I am going to go through all of them.
1. I am scum, I get roleblocked and Killed this option is flat out dumb
2. I am scum, I get roleblocked or roleblock is holstered and someone else gets killed, not a terrible option. I claim RB which makes sense, in a game like this scum shouldn't want to let an outted PR gallivanting around
3. I am scum, I get killed but not roleblocked, again stupid enough it needs no explainaiton
4. I am scum, I get nothing. Not a bad option, but raises suspicion as to why nothing happened to a PR claim
5. I am scum, I get nothing but claim roleblock. This would only happen if option 4 was selected and scum roleblocked and killed the same person.
6. I am town, I get roleblocked and killed, not super smart, probably 30% of people believe my claim why kill me? Good part about this for scum is that they could claim RB
7. I am town, I get roleblocked and someone else gets killed, this would be a bad option but since no one but me knows the true outcomes scum or town could rightfully claim this and say it is situation 2, 4 or 5 so its a decent option for scum
8. I am town, I get Killed but not roleblocked, again like situation 6 why kill me when people think my claim is false?
9. I am town, I get nothing. Scum kill someone and roleblock them and scum claim a roleblock.
10. I am town, I get nothing. Scum kill someone and roleblock someone else in hopes of hitting the other PR

1&3 will never happen

4 makes more sense than 2, and 5 makes more sense than 4, in case the person scum decides to target is the doctor and they self save

6&8 aren't smart for scum if people don't buy my claim which they don't

7&9&10 aren't bad moves, 10 seems the riskiest out of those though

Given that, we have what actually happened:

Everyone else knows that either 2 (roleblock is holstered and Balki claims instead of me), 4, 9 or 10 happened

I know now and everyone else will know when I flip that either 9 or 10 is what actually happened

Not sure if this helps at all, it will later when I die and 2 and 4 are off the table. If I missed any options please inform me.

[RagingIke297]

Jeez, I type out that whole thing and only 1 post during that time?

[teacher2]

Teacher, on a scale of Prado to Xorxes, how smart would you say you are?

The windows on the short bus tasted great in my youth.

If Ike were a town PR, letting him go unroleblocked would be very risky,

Nyet my friend, unless they wanted to kill him too. Purely statistically, Cop!Ike has about as good odds of scanning scum as we did of lynching one -- 20%. Sure, outside the statistics, Cop!Ike has D1 data, but perhaps scum arent the obvious targets (hence the Xorxes kill?) Dr!Ike is worse, there's like a 3% he targets their target. If Ike is Doc, theyd have to RB+Kill him for it to matter.

Bottom line, scum have a >85% chance that a RB!Ike is worthless, if theyre definitely leaving him alive as a target. On the other hand if they RB elsewhere, we get all the WIFOMing we are getting now, possibly even raising the ante for town to lynch. I could see the play as scum. Not saying I would do it, just that I see the play.

Onto the RB, I’m still baffled by Balki as a target.

He did appear to crumb, fwiw.

[rdrivera2005]

I confess I am a bit puzzled.
I was wrong about Xorxes, but this isn't a big surprise

But why kill Xorxes? I didn't see any breadcrumb from him and he was widely scumread. Fearkill makes no sense in this setup on N1. I will assume they were hunting PRs, and maybe they found Xorxes play a bit off like I did.

And then Balki RB. It also makes no sense, specially if Ike isn't scum. We won't lynch Ike until something happens to invalidate his claim and leaving a 50% cop unchecked makes no sense, unless they think he is fake claiming as town, which is also an horrible play. But even if Ike is sc ..um roleblocking Balki is a bad move. If scum believe Balki is a PR they should have killed him.

So, I guess I will need to re-read Xorxes and Ike and try to find some logic in this, but only tomorrow, as now I am going to sleep.

[teacher2]

##vote PeterLund

[rdrivera2005]

Teacher, on a scale of Prado to Xorxes, how smart would you say you are?

The windows on the short bus tasted great in my youth.

If Ike were a town PR, letting him go unroleblocked would be very risky,

Nyet my friend, unless they wanted to kill him too. Purely statistically, Cop!Ike has about as good odds of scanning scum as we did of lynching one -- 20%. Sure, outside the statistics, Cop!Ike has D1 data, but perhaps scum arent the obvious targets (hence the Xorxes kill?) Dr!Ike is worse, there's like a 3% he targets their target. If Ike is Doc, theyd have to RB+Kill him for it to matter.

Bottom line, scum have a >85% chance that a RB!Ike is worthless, if theyre definitely leaving him alive as a target. On the other hand if they RB elsewhere, we get all the WIFOMing we are getting now, possibly even raising the ante for town to lynch. I could see the play as scum. Not saying I would do it, just that I see the play.

Onto the RB, I’m still baffled by Balki as a target.

He did appear to crumb, fwiw.

The math is right about Doc, but not on Cop. Even if he scan a town, it's a town clear (not 100% because of GF, but still a semi clear). If scum allow cop to get some innocent scans, they will have a big problem to solve later.

[teacher2]

Valid point. Havent played that much with GFs. Thanks.

[ghug]

Ike, if you're the cop, you need to work with the scans you get to help town. If you're the doc, you're still a townie with reads that shouldn't be ignored. If you're scum, you have to pretend to be one of those anyway, and we get the benefit of you trying to avoid informing us of anything in exchange for leaving you alive. Play the game.