Mafia 57 Matrix

[Nanook]

Redpill happens before virus shot. It’s in order of ops in the OP

[Nanook]

I’d like to hold off on hammer for a bit at least, trying to work through some permutations

[Nanook]

Ok so I’m just gonna out (most of) my info atp, I don’t *think* it hurts us

So we have two realistic options today

One is to kill bunny today and proceed as a mountainous 7/5 game with tomorrow being MILO

The other is kill someone on the ship and a) be in great shape if they’re scum or b) lose if they’re town


Killing bunny seems like the safe play to me?


I’m not revealing who else is/was on the ship rn cause if we’re all town it’s better for it not to be public imo

[Hellenic Riot]

So why would we have to kill someone on the ship, Nanook?

[Nanook]

Think it through and get back to me

[Nanook]

(I’ll give you a hint, think about how ship control works)

[Hellenic Riot]

I guess you want to use the antivirus tonight but don't know whether you have a scum on board who can block it?

[ghug]

Think it through and get back to me

Right, there's one thing I hate more than third parties: masons.

[Hellenic Riot]

Actually, why on earth have you not used the antivirus already? This could have been prevented so easily

[Nanook]

Think it through and get back to me

Right, there's one thing I hate more than third parties: masons.

On my home site masons are a meme lulz

[Nanook]

There was good reason not to

[ghug]

If we successfully lynched scum today outside of the ship, wouldn't scum on the ship trying to block it just reveal themselves?

[ghug]

There was good reason not to

You wanted to squeeze as many held shots out of him as possible?

[Nanook]

Well, it depends on how many scum are on the ship

If there’s two then it’s game over more than likely

If there’s one it’s probably manageable

[ghug]

Well, it depends on how many scum are on the ship

If there’s two then it’s game over more than likely

If there’s one it’s probably manageable

Man, were y'all that bad at picking people?

[Nanook]

There was good reason not to

You wanted to squeeze as many held shots out of him as possible?

Partially

Also the chance using it forces him to mafia side—for example if ship last night was one town one mafia, town tries to use antiviral, one mafia outing to not use it is worth the trade off of having scumsided virus

[Hellenic Riot]

Alright, let's math it out.


Currently we have 5 Scum, 1 Virus, and 8 town alive.

If we lynch a town on the ship tonight, that gives us 5 Scum, 1 Virus, 7 town. You can use the antivirus, and the scum can kill a town, so we end up in KILO of 5 scum vs 6 town tomorrow - and if you ever redpill the scum role that gets an extra NK, we lose automatically. No ifs or buts.

If we lynch a scum on the ship, that gives us 4 scum, 1 virus, 8 town, You use the AV for 4 scum vs 7 town. Scum can still get the bonus kill to knock it down to MILO.

If we lynch the virus today, we have 5 scum vs 8 town. Becomes 5 scum vs 7 town after tonight - and we have to keep dayvoting in case you ever give scum that bonus NK.

It looks to me like unless we get incredibly lucky and eliminate the bonus kill scum role today, the odds are pretty much the same even if the risk pays off, and of course we just outright lose if it doesn't.

[Nanook]

Well, it depends on how many scum are on the ship

If there’s two then it’s game over more than likely

If there’s one it’s probably manageable

Man, were y'all that bad at picking people?

I hope not

But I don’t wanna bet the game on it tbh

Do you want to be the game on my reads? I doubt it!

[ghug]

There was good reason not to

You wanted to squeeze as many held shots out of him as possible?

Partially

Also the chance using it forces him to mafia side—for example if ship last night was one town one mafia, town tries to use antiviral, one mafia outing to not use it is worth the trade off of having scumsided virus

It's your fault we're losing

[Nanook]

You wanted to squeeze as many held shots out of him as possible?

Partially

Also the chance using it forces him to mafia side—for example if ship last night was one town one mafia, town tries to use antiviral, one mafia outing to not use it is worth the trade off of having scumsided virus

It's your fault we're losing

Yah it’s totally my fault you guys keep flash wagoning people while I’m not here