Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[worcej]

You’ll love this.

I targeted flash both nights and each night my action failed. My logic was the scum would go for the low post count/lurker PRs to keep suspicion up in the active players.

Quite surprised that that logic didn't lead you to saving JF N2, given we'd not had a replacement for them yet and they were a PR who was obviously not going to claim at the final second

Worcej is lying. What was your action message?

Interesting that you ask for the exact message when someone else asked you and you never said it.

[worcej]

I'll condense this down for you:

Based on the setup of this game, a smart scum team should be able to take advantage of the claims in this game because nothing is truly verifiable other than alignment on flips. The scum team should at minimum have 2 PR claims and they should sort themselves into the two piles of two town PRs, thus having a 2 3-way standoff situations. The scum continue to kill in the PR pile and keep the VT pile as high as possible as we continue to lynch only in that pool.

I really don't see why worcej would want to explain to scum the best way to handle the mass claim during D1, yet if I am correct about Chaqa being scum, worcej must be town.

Worcej is an engineer. He thinks everyone sees the “obvious” conclusions too. So he didn’t think he was coaching, he thought he was explaining why he was against a claim.

100% true. One of the hardest aspecs of my job is dumbing down things for others to understand.

[worcej]

While we wait for Bunny or Xorxes to be killed I would like to debate whether it is strategically better to lynch from the 3 prs or from the VTs.

I'm leaning PRs (Bismarck I think) but not sure. I've tried to work through lots of scenarios and it's not obvious. The outed pairs complicate matters.

This seems off - normally not obvious math leads to you making assumptions and doing the math

[BunnyGo]

I really don't see why worcej would want to explain to scum the best way to handle the mass claim during D1, yet if I am correct about Chaqa being scum, worcej must be town.

Worcej is an engineer. He thinks everyone sees the “obvious” conclusions too. So he didn’t think he was coaching, he thought he was explaining why he was against a claim.

100% true. One of the hardest aspecs of my job is dumbing down things for others to understand.

I should say, this is NAI. Town!Worcej would feel this way, and Scum!Worcej would too.

[worcej]

Worcej is an engineer. He thinks everyone sees the “obvious” conclusions too. So he didn’t think he was coaching, he thought he was explaining why he was against a claim.

100% true. One of the hardest aspecs of my job is dumbing down things for others to understand.

I should say, this is NAI. Town!Worcej would feel this way, and Scum!Worcej would too.

You didn’t need to say that because it is a discussion about my personality, which is always NAI

[Vecna]

So you think HR would actually destroy his scumbuddy there in the way that he did with flash?

lol, was that a crosspost with mine?

How exactly was HR responsible for destroying flash? I'm still not seeing it.

maybe he was spreading wrong info in the scumchat and he truely believed himself thats how the role worked.....and made the other scum believe it too

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamie, could you give your reads on the eight VT claimants:

Bob
bozo
brainbomb
damo
Durga
HR
rdrivera
summit

Also, who did you try to save N1 and N2 and why?

Normally I would refuse to answer this question until daytime, but for some mad reason in this setup, docsaves can be placed on the same target on consecutive nights.

So, N1 I tried to save HR, and on N2 I tried to save Worcej.

Of the VT claimants I would say that I scumlean Bozo, Brainbomb, and Rdrivera. Damo, Durga and Summit look ok. I am sure HR is town. I am null on Bob.

[rdrivera2005]

Tl;'dr Lynching the scum PR claim will grant us an extra ML unless they nail at least two double-kills - which requires them not to target the SM - and the SM will be able to get scans again because they'll lose their factional RB.

This is an important factor I hadn't noticed. Agree we should lynch between the FAE first and hopefully get it right in the first try.

[Jamiet99uk]

If you think scum are daft enough to be misled by this you should be on their team. Or perhaps you are.

Anyway instead of playing silly buggers what is your opinion on the PRvVT lynch problem?

Could you articulate the "problem" for me exactly?

Is it strategically better for town to lynch tomorrow from the 3 PR suspects or the VTs?

I would say it is strategically better to lynch among Worcej / Bismarck / Me, surely? Get that solved and then there's only one scum left. At that point, start lynching in the VT pool.

[rdrivera2005]

Tl;'dr Lynching the scum PR claim will grant us an extra ML unless they nail at least two double-kills - which requires them not to target the SM - and the SM will be able to get scans again because they'll lose their factional RB.

This is an important factor I hadn't noticed. Agree we should lynch between the FAE first and hopefully get it right in the first try.

I think Jamiet is the more likely to flip scum.

Among the VTs, I think Bob and Brain are our best bets.

[rdrivera2005]

@Jamie, could you give your reads on the eight VT claimants:

Bob
bozo
brainbomb
damo
Durga
HR
rdrivera
summit

Also, who did you try to save N1 and N2 and why?

Normally I would refuse to answer this question until daytime, but for some mad reason in this setup, docsaves can be placed on the same target on consecutive nights.

So, N1 I tried to save HR, and on N2 I tried to save Worcej.

Of the VT claimants I would say that I scumlean Bozo, Brainbomb, and Rdrivera. Damo, Durga and Summit look ok. I am sure HR is town. I am null on Bob.

Could you explain the HR choice on N1? It doesn't make sense, why scum will target a VT claimant?

[Vecna]

HR does make a good point though that the same scum member cannot kill + roleblock.

JOATs roleblocking in the doc group is risky, but it might have interesting results. Or I might end up dying as a result.

[Jamiet99uk]

I see you, Rdrivera.

[xorxes]

People that I think were "cleared" by macca:

brainbomb
Durga
worcej
Bismarck
damo

##unvote bobmcbob

##vote brainbomb

you know too much.

I haven't played here before, so I don't know what someone's towny post looks like.

Right, I understand that now. Why do you think his post is accurate?

I don't think/know it's accurate. But it's a lot of information, from what I've assumed is strong reasoning and observation.

Are you suggesting a massclaim or more of a confidant type claim?
By confidant how would we get everyone to speak truthfully or at all to their buddies about their roles?

Donny Dude and Brainbomb high on my initial scum list based on this post.
##vote Donny Dude

I'm new so I'm trying to understand. Why does this make you think this Bismark?

I dunno, people tend to keep trying scumreading and voting me (in not insignificant numbers) even when vecna does obvtown me. I guess I just give off that kind of vibe.

I understand your pain. Know I am not really scumming you, if that gives you any sort of joy/happiness.

I'm just scared of someone with a lot more information than me. You could have town read me, and I'd be just the same.

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Thanks Damo! This is what I wanted, some math.

This looks sarcastic but it's not, I like maths.

I'm going to sleep now so time to vote.

##vote worcej

See you at night!

[Hellenic Riot]

So you think HR would actually destroy his scumbuddy there in the way that he did with flash?

lol, was that a crosspost with mine?

How exactly was HR responsible for destroying flash? I'm still not seeing it.

maybe he was spreading wrong info in the scumchat and he truely believed himself thats how the role worked.....and made the other scum believe it too

Yes, and then I instantly called flash out on it because I was actually trolling my scumbuddies all along

The fact that xorxes thinks that a scumteam which had lost two members on consecutive days would then deliberately have a third member jump in front of a hail of bullets just to make me look better is pretty damn incredible.

[xorxes]

lol, was that a crosspost with mine?

How exactly was HR responsible for destroying flash? I'm still not seeing it.

maybe he was spreading wrong info in the scumchat and he truely believed himself thats how the role worked.....and made the other scum believe it too

Yes, and then I instantly called flash out on it because I was actually trolling my scumbuddies all along

The fact that xorxes thinks that a scumteam which had lost two members on consecutive days would then deliberately have a third member jump in front of a hail of bullets just to make me look better is pretty damn incredible.

You "instantly called flash out" right after I did. That's NAI.

It's hard to believe they would jump in front of a hail of bullets for any reason, but that's basically what Donny and flash did. Believable or not, it's what happened. The scumteam knows that they only need one of them to survive in order to win. The PR claimants knew they were dead sooner rather than later. The strategy may have been to make some use of something that was inevitable. Donny and flash basically denied us of any wagon analysis for two days.

[xorxes]

Well, alas, it did not read as a joke so much as an eyerolling dismissal of brainbomb.

Ah, so you did interpret it from that angle as well. So why is that reason to be suspicious of senior bob

I merely found it notable, and said as much at the time. It jarred - Do you tend to jump in to dismiss people who are not talking to you?.

I'd much rather discuss Donny's early crumble but as he's seemingly not here, this had to suffice.

I'm still not sure what Donny's early crumble was, maybe the comment about emc being town because of karma giving? I don't remember if HR ever discussed it again either despite saying here he wanted to.

[xorxes]

Bismarck I may dislike that I am on your list, but I think you have a good thought process. You seem Town to me.

This is townie points for Bismarck as well.

I think based on macca's and Donny's interactions with worcej and Bismarck, plus Chaqa's D1, Jamie is the most likely of the three to be scum.

[brainbomb]

assuming if scums kill fails they probably concede here

[rdrivera2005]

I see you, Rdrivera.

You saw me, but didn't answer my question.