Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[bozotheclown]

Scum team predictions:

bozo: Jamie, flash, Donny, rdrivera
Donny: Jamie, HR, damo, TFB
brainbomb: Donny, Jamie, rdrivera, summit
Jamie: bozo, Bob, flash, TFB
HR: Donny, brainbomb, Jamie, xorxes
rdrivera: Bob, Durga, Jamie, emc
xorxes: HR, summit, Jamie, JF
summit: Donny, damo, flash, JF
TFB: Donny, Jamie, emc, HR
Bismarck: worcej, Donny, brainbomb, Bob
Vecna: emc, Bismarck, bozo, ?
Damo: Donny, Durga, emc, JF
Bob: Donny, Jamie, ?, ?

With 13/18 players participating:
Donny 8
Jamie 8
emc 4
Bob 3
flash 3
HR 3
JF 3
bozo 2
brainbomb 2
damo 2
Durga 2
rdrivera 2
summit 2
TFB 2
Bismarck 1
worcej 1
xorxes 1
Vecna 0

[brainbomb]

Tomorrow we should lynch in the VT pool again, regardless of the outcome of Worcej/EMC.

Some quick EON thoughts on those people in case I die:

Durga: Has not been too active, but the little participation I did see felt more towny than scummy. Switched votes to Macca while it was still unclear whether that wagon.

HR: His swap to Macca is probably the likeliest contender for the bus swap as stated before. Fits potentially with a scum bozo that he was trying to save, but im not so hot on Bozo anymore. His lines of "if we hit scum here itll be so lucky" is a pretty classic townline though

Bozo: Has finally started talking a bit more in a way id expect from his town self during this night. I liked tunneling on him and pushing him for a bit, but im no longer strongly convinced he's scum. He still could be scum thats having an above average game, but Its not that obvious a case anymore

Donny: This is the person ill be watching more closely. Was pretty obviously town in the previous game from his posting style, but then got lynched due to a slip that wasnt a slip. This game however, that genuine style of posting is no longer there. One of the more likely scum in the VT's imo.

Bob: I still think bob is most likely town. His posting style is pretty carefree. He is likeable (to me at least) in a IDGAF type of way. Probably a mistake to lynch this, but I could be wrong as I was with Macca.

Brainbomb: Has been a bit more reserved so far this game. Could very well be scum, but then again, Im not that great at reading brainbomb.

Rdrivera: The second vote on Macca at a critical time should townclear him.....but its Rdrivera, so it doesnt. Also a lot more quiet. Hasnt made any of those strongly town indicative posts yet. Cause for some concern, but probably not.

I forgot who the other vts were. hopefully I wont die

If we get 2 watcher claims. take note of this. vecna may be fake

[brainbomb]

he isnt on donny, and hes withheld a 4th scumread.

[Jamiet99uk]

Scum team predictions:

bozo: Jamie, flash, Donny, rdrivera
Donny: Jamie, HR, damo, TFB
brainbomb: Donny, Jamie, rdrivera, summit
Jamie: bozo, Bob, flash, TFB
HR: Donny, brainbomb, Jamie, xorxes
rdrivera: Bob, Durga, Jamie, emc
xorxes: HR, summit, Jamie, JF
summit: Donny, damo, flash, JF
TFB: Donny, Jamie, emc, HR
Bismarck: worcej, Donny, brainbomb, Bob
Vecna: emc, Bismarck, bozo, ?
Damo: Donny, Durga, emc, JF
Bob: Donny, Jamie, ?, ?

With 13/18 players participating:
Donny 8
Jamie 8
emc 4
Bob 3
flash 3
HR 3
JF 3
bozo 2
brainbomb 2
damo 2
Durga 2
rdrivera 2
summit 2
TFB 2
Bismarck 1
worcej 1
xorxes 1
Vecna 0

Worcej is voting for you, Bozo, and has quite loudly declared that he scumreads EMC, so I think we can assume he has at least those two scumreads in his four.

This therefore gives the following scum team predictions (my amendments highlighted):

bozo: Jamie, flash, Donny, rdrivera
Donny: Jamie, HR, damo, TFB
brainbomb: Donny, Jamie, rdrivera, summit
Jamie: bozo, Bob, flash, TFB
HR: Donny, brainbomb, Jamie, xorxes
rdrivera: Bob, Durga, Jamie, emc
xorxes: HR, summit, Jamie, JF
summit: Donny, damo, flash, JF
TFB: Donny, Jamie, emc, HR
Bismarck: worcej, Donny, brainbomb, Bob
Vecna: emc, Bismarck, bozo, ?
Damo: Donny, Durga, emc, JF
Bob: Donny, Jamie, ?, ?
Worcej: Bozo, emc, ?, ?

Donny 8
Jamie 8
emc 5
Bob 3
flash 3
HR 3
JF 3
bozo 3
brainbomb 2
damo 2
Durga 2
rdrivera 2
summit 2
TFB 2
Bismarck 1
worcej 1
xorxes 1
Vecna 0

[brainbomb]

Bozo, if you ask for claims one more time, or post that overview, ill claim I have a guilty on brainbombs partner and get you speedlynched.

Your call

once again Vecna open wolfing and fishing for real watcher to out

##Vote vecna

[Jamiet99uk]

Glory be upon our souls, I have returned to life and 40 something pages.

I am glad that you have returned from the grave, however I am starting to think we may be advised to put you back there.

On Page 94 I have some questions for you.

Thanks in advance.

[worcej]

I have been gone almost 2 full days and now after this post have posted more than 5 other people...

Just wow.

[worcej]

FWIW - Durga and Xorxes are my other 2 I believe are scum at this point, but xorxes is the weakest read of my 4.

Durga’s uninterested vibe I get reminds me of the time she subbed in as scum. It’s just too familiar.

[worcej]

Of note, emc appears to have completely checked out.

[Jamiet99uk]

Xorxes encouraged me to take a look back at the interactions between Macca and Bozo from D1 (i.e. before I was present), and I undertook that I would do so.

Here are the main interactions that I noticed.

I don't fully understand this "massclaim" thing, but it doesn't seem like a good idea.

How exactly does it help us?

If you do not understand it, why do you think it is not a good idea?

A PR/VT mass claim helps us by reducing the lynch pool. If all mafia avoid claiming to be a town PR, we immediately reduce the lynch pool from 20 to 12, increasing the chance of randomly lynching a scum from 25% to 41.7%. If any scum claim to be a town PR, it makes them much easier to sort later.

A scum can claim a VT or PR, how can that reduce lynch pool?

Especially in the case of all scum pick VT, how does that change the numbers?

I kinda just want someone to explain the math.

Definitely panicked. As I've stated before, I get scared when people have more information than me. And all this massclaiming stuff is getting (read: is) very confusing.

Can you please ask us any questions you have about the mass claim? Do you plan on participating in the mass claim? The only claim we are looking for is PR or VT, not your specific role or the identity of your buddy.

Ok, some questions.

If I am a PR, what benefit would get from claiming either? Claiming PR for constancy, or VT to stop myself getting killed?

If I'm a VT what benefit could be got from lying and saying PR?

If I'm Scum, what benefit would I get from either choice?

Knowing how other peoples real states impact their choices is vital in understanding the effects of the massclaim. I don't wish to participate in something I don't understand.

If we know how much mafia are in each group, how does that then help us? There's still more town in each group as well?

If they claim PR, they will have to claim an exact role of a real town PR, if the majority claim VT, the percentage of scum in the VTs goes up.

I understand now (I think).
Thanks!

I'm VT.

These interactions are certainly of some interest. I notice that Macca had a lot of questions about the justification for the massclaim, the mechanics of it, and the utility to town. Bozo responds to these very calmly and informatively, seems to seek confirmation from Macca that he has understood, and encourages him to keep asking questions if he is still concerned.

On the one hand this could be read as town Bozo trying to ensure the effectiveness of the massclaim by taking the time to explain it to the newbie, on the other hand this could be read as scum Bozo trying to calm and soothe his jumpy newbie team-mate. You might conclude that it does not indicate relentless detective Bozo hounding his scum target, but you might also reflect on the fact that Bozo has the demenaour of a particularly dull schoolmaster, rather than an aggressive hunter, regardless of his alignment.

Ultimately, Xorxes, this was somewhat interesting to read, but does not particularly alter my scumlean on Bozo.

[Donny Dude]

The last note from Donny Dude
Congrats, I must give you all some 'credit'.
You got a scum!
A rather useless one but still.
My scumtean is rather ingenious.
We all laughed our asses off in the night chat since it cleared us as town due to the massclaim.
Shit that massclaim is so broken and used by us.
I have been left to dry out in nature
Have fun town figuring out where we hide because we got you. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
You may have gotten two of us but good luck on getting the rest of us.
Plus, I am a firm believer in people coming to their own conclusions, so no names for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
##vote Donny
And see the truth

[bozotheclown]

Scum team predictions:

bozo: Jamie, flash, Donny, rdrivera
Donny: Jamie, HR, damo, TFB
brainbomb: Donny, Jamie, rdrivera, summit
Jamie: bozo, Bob, flash, TFB
HR: Donny, brainbomb, Jamie, xorxes
rdrivera: Bob, Durga, Jamie, emc
xorxes: HR, summit, Jamie, JF
summit: Donny, damo, flash, JF
TFB: Donny, Jamie, emc, HR
Bismarck: worcej, Donny, brainbomb, Bob
Vecna: emc, Bismarck, bozo, ?
Damo: Donny, Durga, emc, JF
Bob: Donny, Jamie, ?, ?
worcej: bozo, emc, Durga, xorxes

With 14/18 players participating:
Donny 8
Jamie 8
emc 5
Bob 3
bozo 3
Durga 3
flash 3
HR 3
JF 3
brainbomb 2
damo 2
rdrivera 2
summit 2
TFB 2
xorxes 2
Bismarck 1
worcej 1
Vecna 0

[bozotheclown]

The last note from Donny Dude
Congrats, I must give you all some 'credit'.
You got a scum!
A rather useless one but still.
My scumtean is rather ingenious.
We all laughed our asses off in the night chat since it cleared us as town due to the massclaim.
Shit that massclaim is so broken and used by us.
I have been left to dry out in nature
Have fun town figuring out where we hide because we got you. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
You may have gotten two of us but good luck on getting the rest of us.
Plus, I am a firm believer in people coming to their own conclusions, so no names for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
##vote Donny
And see the truth

What do you mean it cleared you as town?

[Donny Dude]

The last note from Donny Dude
Congrats, I must give you all some 'credit'.
You got a scum!
A rather useless one but still.
My scumtean is rather ingenious.
We all laughed our asses off in the night chat since it cleared us as town due to the massclaim.
Shit that massclaim is so broken and used by us.
I have been left to dry out in nature
Have fun town figuring out where we hide because we got you. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
You may have gotten two of us but good luck on getting the rest of us.
Plus, I am a firm believer in people coming to their own conclusions, so no names for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
##vote Donny
And see the truth

What do you mean it cleared you as town?

Really, Bozo
Open your eyes beyond your holy massclaim
But really it did me no favors as you can see.

[Donny Dude]

If you want a hint Bozo, one dirty is currently voting for me.
HAHAHA

[xorxes]

Xorxes encouraged me to take a look back at the interactions between Macca and Bozo from D1 (i.e. before I was present), and I undertook that I would do so.

Here are the main interactions that I noticed.

If you do not understand it, why do you think it is not a good idea?

A PR/VT mass claim helps us by reducing the lynch pool. If all mafia avoid claiming to be a town PR, we immediately reduce the lynch pool from 20 to 12, increasing the chance of randomly lynching a scum from 25% to 41.7%. If any scum claim to be a town PR, it makes them much easier to sort later.

A scum can claim a VT or PR, how can that reduce lynch pool?

Especially in the case of all scum pick VT, how does that change the numbers?

I kinda just want someone to explain the math.

Can you please ask us any questions you have about the mass claim? Do you plan on participating in the mass claim? The only claim we are looking for is PR or VT, not your specific role or the identity of your buddy.

Ok, some questions.

If I am a PR, what benefit would get from claiming either? Claiming PR for constancy, or VT to stop myself getting killed?

If I'm a VT what benefit could be got from lying and saying PR?

If I'm Scum, what benefit would I get from either choice?

Knowing how other peoples real states impact their choices is vital in understanding the effects of the massclaim. I don't wish to participate in something I don't understand.

If they claim PR, they will have to claim an exact role of a real town PR, if the majority claim VT, the percentage of scum in the VTs goes up.

I understand now (I think).
Thanks!

I'm VT.

These interactions are certainly of some interest. I notice that Macca had a lot of questions about the justification for the massclaim, the mechanics of it, and the utility to town. Bozo responds to these very calmly and informatively, seems to seek confirmation from Macca that he has understood, and encourages him to keep asking questions if he is still concerned.

On the one hand this could be read as town Bozo trying to ensure the effectiveness of the massclaim by taking the time to explain it to the newbie, on the other hand this could be read as scum Bozo trying to calm and soothe his jumpy newbie team-mate. You might conclude that it does not indicate relentless detective Bozo hounding his scum target, but you might also reflect on the fact that Bozo has the demenaour of a particularly dull schoolmaster, rather than an aggressive hunter, regardless of his alignment.

Ultimately, Xorxes, this was somewhat interesting to read, but does not particularly alter my scumlean on Bozo.

I just don't see macca being so reluctant to understand when talking with scumbuddy!bozo, and then suddenly being convinced by damo's numbers.

[brainbomb]

##Vote donny

[Donny Dude]

If you want a hint Bozo, one dirty is currently voting for me.
HAHAHA

maybe it is you , maybe it is someone else

[xorxes]

The last note from Donny Dude
Congrats, I must give you all some 'credit'.
You got a scum!
A rather useless one but still.
My scumtean is rather ingenious.
We all laughed our asses off in the night chat since it cleared us as town due to the massclaim.
Shit that massclaim is so broken and used by us.
I have been left to dry out in nature
Have fun town figuring out where we hide because we got you. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
You may have gotten two of us but good luck on getting the rest of us.
Plus, I am a firm believer in people coming to their own conclusions, so no names for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
##vote Donny
And see the truth

##VOTE Donny then

[bozotheclown]

The last note from Donny Dude
Congrats, I must give you all some 'credit'.
You got a scum!
A rather useless one but still.
My scumtean is rather ingenious.
We all laughed our asses off in the night chat since it cleared us as town due to the massclaim.
Shit that massclaim is so broken and used by us.
I have been left to dry out in nature
Have fun town figuring out where we hide because we got you. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
You may have gotten two of us but good luck on getting the rest of us.
Plus, I am a firm believer in people coming to their own conclusions, so no names for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
##vote Donny
And see the truth

What do you mean it cleared you as town?

Really, Bozo
Open your eyes beyond your holy massclaim
But really it did me no favors as you can see.

You did a good job with it, it was unlucky for you that so many VT claimants ended up voting for Macca, although I still think one of your partners bussed him.