Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[brainbomb]

I usually prefer meaningful lynches over just slaughtering new players. Last few games ive killed off newer people day 1, or pushed alot of new people day 1. donny, bismark, ect.

I had little stomach for just murking someone new. I was willing to push damo or rivera to the brink.

[worcej]

Again - EMC is my buddy. I believe he is scum. The best way to test this, without being able to convince people with my words (because no one listens normally and the mass claim proved this once again) is to force the issue with mEcHaNiKz!
If EMC and myself do not die together tonight - he is scum.

My brain hurts just reading this tbh. You might be right but you can push emc without revealing this. You might be wrong and that would really... really suck. Why do you think mafia would target you both for sure? If I was mafia I'd go for xorx even if I could get you two. Especially since for some reason you've decided that we'll lynch emc if you're both alive next turn. Actually 0 reason to do this reveal.

My issue Durga that I've seen through countless games is when I push, no one listens. Scum chats even have mentioned "no one listens to worcej anyway" several times.

At what point do you just give up and decide to take the bull by the horns? I'm a go-getter. Let's see what happens.

[brainbomb]

damo wagon dissolved in final 3 minutes, and macca wagon hit a boon. I wasnt desperate to save you bozo, but you are an asset and I thought we held greater value being a double nk than you getting lynched

[brainbomb]

durga really doesnt bus from what I recollect. she says bussing is fucking stupid in fact

[damo666]

@ Damo:

In scout group "Bozo" the average (arithmetic mean) dirtiness of the scouts is 70.

In scout group "Worcej" the average of the dirtyness values of the scouts is 92.

When the dirt of the two groups is combined, the average dirtyness is 86.

Assume the Frink values of both groups are increasingly constant.

What is the value of Bozo/Worcej ?

Why are you taking the piss?

[brainbomb]

[bozotheclown]

Damo's thinking:

I assume Xorxes, Bozo, worcej and HR are town.

The following sets are listed in order of scumminess

SET A VT claimants not on Macca [ Donny, Bob, brain]

SET B PR claimants [Chaqa, JF, EMC, TFB, Fla, Bis, Vec]

SET C VT claimants that could have been bussing [rdr, Durga, summit]

Now, there are three possibilities for TRC; Scum, town PR, VT

Scenario 1 TRC is scum

Possible teams

2A +B = 3*7 = 21
A +B+C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 2C = 7*3 = 21
Total 105

Best guess: Bob Chaqa rdr

Scenario 2

TRC town PR

Possibles are

2A + 2B = 3*21 = 63
A + 2B + C = 3*21*3 = 189
2B + 2C = 3*21 = 63
Total 315

Best guess: Bob, Chaqa, JF, rdr

Scenario 3 TRC is VT (the most probable imo)

Possibles are

3A + B = 7
2A + B + C = 3*7*3 = 63
A + B + 2C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 3C = 7

Best guess Bob, Donny, Chaqa, rdr

Grand total 560 but obviously some are more likely than others.

A lot less than 11628 anyway.

Why you assumed HR is town? The others I can understand.

And also why I am the most likely busser when I stated I would lynch Macca even before he has a vote?

If Bob is town, which is looking more likely, there probably was at least one Macca busser, and you look like a reasonable candidate because of your history of bussing and because your vote on Macca was early, when it did not appear he was at risk of getting lynched.

When you stated you would vote for Macca, xorxes had voted for him 2 minutes earlier, which I assume you had not seen yet:

Between Bozo and Worcej I will vote Bozo, but I don't have a scumread on him, more a null read.
From the VT list I would lynch between HR, Macca and Bob, but none of them have votes.

When you saw that xorxes had voted for Macca, it would look suspicious if you did not choose to vote for Macca.

[Jamiet99uk]

You are very active this game, Bob, especially at night. Why the change? I had a plumbing emergency at home...so this wasn't my highest priority. Not that I like to be especially active this early in the game anyway.

I know that both worcej and chaqa were both obstinate about the massclaim. I didn't like it either. Usually you get townclears from a massclaim, don't you? What townclears do we have now? Unfortunately once the massclaim started there was no stopping it.

I think worcej is his usual obstinate towny self. I don't believe worcej should have told us his partner, but again this is worcej being worcej. Chaqa's late move on the massclaim was definitely anti-town, but I can't see the scum motivation for it. It just made him a target and almost got himself lynched. If he is scum why would he take that risk, especially so early in the game?

Highlighted the key part here no one addressed until this post - we gained NO TOWN CLEARS from the claims. We just made two piles to simplify the kills to be made by the scum while town focuses on the VT pile for lynches.

And yeah, I am obstinate. I'll probably become less someday if people actually show they listen to what I am saying lol...

All we have to do is the PR claims and we have clears.

Do what?

Nightkill them?

I see.

[Jamiet99uk]

@ Damo:

In scout group "Vecna" the average (arithmetic mean) dirtiness of the scouts is 70.

In scout group "Damo" the average of the dirtyness values of the scouts is 92.

When the dirt of the two groups is combined, the average dirtyness is 86.

Assume the Balki values of both groups are increasingly constant.

What is the value of Vecna/Damo ?

Why are you taking the piss?

Perhaps I think that your long maths posts are extremely tedious and laden with bias.

Perhaps I thought you enjoyed maths and would therefore like to take on this little maths problem.

Can't you solve it?

[bozotheclown]

damo wagon dissolved in final 3 minutes, and macca wagon hit a boon. I wasnt desperate to save you bozo, but you are an asset and I thought we held greater value being a double nk than you getting lynched

OK, but if I assume you are town, and it looks like Bob is town unless he fabricated all of those Macca quotes (which also make you look more likely to be town), then there was at least 1 Macca busser, and potentially as many as 3.

[Durga]

Again - EMC is my buddy. I believe he is scum. The best way to test this, without being able to convince people with my words (because no one listens normally and the mass claim proved this once again) is to force the issue with mEcHaNiKz!
If EMC and myself do not die together tonight - he is scum.

My brain hurts just reading this tbh. You might be right but you can push emc without revealing this. You might be wrong and that would really... really suck. Why do you think mafia would target you both for sure? If I was mafia I'd go for xorx even if I could get you two. Especially since for some reason you've decided that we'll lynch emc if you're both alive next turn. Actually 0 reason to do this reveal.

My issue Durga that I've seen through countless games is when I push, no one listens. Scum chats even have mentioned "no one listens to worcej anyway" several times.

At what point do you just give up and decide to take the bull by the horns? I'm a go-getter. Let's see what happens.

And this will magically get people to listen to you? This is a collective game, people aren't gonna listen to you unless you're convincing. This is not convincing but actually contrary to how you convince people to vote your scum reads imo.

[Jamiet99uk]

Again - EMC is my buddy. I believe he is scum. The best way to test this, without being able to convince people with my words (because no one listens normally and the mass claim proved this once again) is to force the issue with mEcHaNiKz!
If EMC and myself do not die together tonight - he is scum.

My brain hurts just reading this tbh. You might be right but you can push emc without revealing this. You might be wrong and that would really... really suck. Why do you think mafia would target you both for sure? If I was mafia I'd go for xorx even if I could get you two. Especially since for some reason you've decided that we'll lynch emc if you're both alive next turn. Actually 0 reason to do this reveal.

My issue Durga that I've seen through countless games is when I push, no one listens. Scum chats even have mentioned "no one listens to worcej anyway" several times.

At what point do you just give up and decide to take the bull by the horns? I'm a go-getter. Let's see what happens.

The irony here, Worcej, is that you are complaining about not being listened to, and yet now you are not listening to people (such as me) who are telling you quite specifically, what is flawed about your theory.

Read our comments calmly, with love in your heart, and you may find them helpful.

[brainbomb]

sorry to see how you died in champs jamie!

[Jamiet99uk]

sorry to see how you died in champs jamie!

I was mislynched due to self-important people like Relm thinking there is one particular perfect formula for exactly how to play the game and if you don't do everything exactly as they expect, you must be scum.

Bunch of fucking nonsense.

[Jamiet99uk]

But the scumteam played well in that game from what I saw, so gg to them.

[bozotheclown]

durga really doesnt bus from what I recollect. she says bussing is fucking stupid in fact

Durga, is it true that you do not bus when you are mafia?

[Jamiet99uk]

durga really doesnt bus from what I recollect. she says bussing is fucking stupid in fact

Durga, is it true that you do not bus when you are mafia?

What about when she is town?

[Jamiet99uk]

Hey Bozo if you think people should claim their specific role at night, why don't you go first?

[bozotheclown]

Keep in mind that there may also be buddy chats which roleswapped. we have a very imcomplete tapestry

Correct. Something my buddy suggested, but that I refused, and not just because I refuse to claim.

This Bob post from D1 makes it less likely he fabricated the Macca posts. Bob had no reason to think Macca would be the D1 lynch at the time.

[bozotheclown]

Hey Bozo if you think people should claim their specific role at night, why don't you go first?

OK, I am a VT.