Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[bozotheclown]

You are very active this game, Bob, especially at night. Why the change? I had a plumbing emergency at home...so this wasn't my highest priority. Not that I like to be especially active this early in the game anyway.

I know that both worcej and chaqa were both obstinate about the massclaim. I didn't like it either. Usually you get townclears from a massclaim, don't you? What townclears do we have now? Unfortunately once the massclaim started there was no stopping it.

I think worcej is his usual obstinate towny self. I don't believe worcej should have told us his partner, but again this is worcej being worcej. Chaqa's late move on the massclaim was definitely anti-town, but I can't see the scum motivation for it. It just made him a target and almost got himself lynched. If he is scum why would he take that risk, especially so early in the game?

Chaqa knew people would switch off of him when he made a claim, especially since he was claiming PR.

[worcej]

Sorry this was unclear. These questions are not asking for what I should do. They are trying to find out how we understand outcome to action. i.e. Once we have everyone's claims, how do judge truth and move forwards?

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Whoops.

The 4 and 5 VT can be ignored and the 3 VT should be 120*45 not 120+45 so 5400 possible. A reduction of 53.6%.

Anyway things have moved on and the possibles greatly reduced. See next post.

This. Doesn't. Matter.

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie, im suprised it would annoy you

What would annoy me?

I'm perfectly calm, I'm just explaining to Worcej that his theory are not be as logical as he think it do.

[worcej]

Good evening. im having a cup of decaf and rereading. looking at how natural the macca wagon formed after chaqa claimed. Im not sure scum wouldve had time to even scramble bussers onto macca so I think we just lynch away from that wagon for a while. My tinfoil theory here is that Deep scumbin the PR pool convinced chat oartners to role swap

someone like xorxes could absolutely pull it off without a hitch

Why do you disregard bussing so willingly?

[brainbomb]

Be careful in how you do end of night reads. I strongly suggest layering reads in a way that makes it hard to find chat buddies. Also dont feel like you have to be nice to your chat buddy. read them honestly if you find them scummy, but also protect their identity as much as possible.

[Jamiet99uk]

To be fair, he's not wrong. Someone(s) did get us distracted by the massclaim all day. It wan't a particuarly productive one. But enough people had jumped on the massclaim boat that it had already set sail. Nobody I don't have scum on said it was pro-town to start with, but it happened anyway.

Why do you think D1 was not productive when we lynched a scum?

Do you think Macca was lynched because there was a case on him?

Why was he lynched?

I asked this and nobody explained it to me.

[Durga]

Why do you think D1 was not productive when we lynched a scum?

Do you think Macca was lynched because there was a case on him?

Why was he lynched?

I asked this and nobody explained it to me.

Because mood.

[brainbomb]

Good evening. im having a cup of decaf and rereading. looking at how natural the macca wagon formed after chaqa claimed. Im not sure scum wouldve had time to even scramble bussers onto macca so I think we just lynch away from that wagon for a while. My tinfoil theory here is that Deep scumbin the PR pool convinced chat oartners to role swap

someone like xorxes could absolutely pull it off without a hitch

Why do you disregard bussing so willingly?

because the CFD happened super fast and I doubt multiple scum were able to react. Bozo almost was lynched, if theres a busser its potentially a double busser who was also on jamie/chaqa. Its very likely chaqa was scum there

[worcej]

the odds that maccas chat partner was scum are quite low as well. yes?

I wouldn't call ~25% to be quite low.

[Jamiet99uk]

Do you think Macca was lynched because there was a case on him?

Why was he lynched?

I asked this and nobody explained it to me.

Because mood.

Whose mood?

This is not informative.

[Jamiet99uk]

Good evening. im having a cup of decaf and rereading. looking at how natural the macca wagon formed after chaqa claimed. Im not sure scum wouldve had time to even scramble bussers onto macca so I think we just lynch away from that wagon for a while. My tinfoil theory here is that Deep scumbin the PR pool convinced chat oartners to role swap

someone like xorxes could absolutely pull it off without a hitch

Why do you disregard bussing so willingly?

because the CFD happened super fast and I doubt multiple scum were able to react. Bozo almost was lynched, if theres a busser its potentially a double busser who was also on jamie/chaqa. Its very likely chaqa was scum there

I'm not scum.

My assumption was that Chaqa was just in a really bad mood with Bozo because of how much he hated the massclaim.

[worcej]

Damo's thinking:

I assume Xorxes, Bozo, worcej and HR are town.

The following sets are listed in order of scumminess

SET A VT claimants not on Macca [ Donny, Bob, brain]

SET B PR claimants [Chaqa, JF, EMC, TFB, Fla, Bis, Vec]

SET C VT claimants that could have been bussing [rdr, Durga, summit]

Now, there are three possibilities for TRC; Scum, town PR, VT

Scenario 1 TRC is scum

Possible teams

2A +B = 3*7 = 21
A +B+C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 2C = 7*3 = 21
Total 105

Best guess: Bob Chaqa rdr

Scenario 2

TRC town PR

Possibles are

2A + 2B = 3*21 = 63
A + 2B + C = 3*21*3 = 189
2B + 2C = 3*21 = 63
Total 315

Best guess: Bob, Chaqa, JF, rdr

Scenario 3 TRC is VT (the most probable imo)

Possibles are

3A + B = 7
2A + B + C = 3*7*3 = 63
A + B + 2C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 3C = 7

Best guess Bob, Donny, Chaqa, rdr

Grand total 560 but obviously some are more likely than others.

A lot less than 11628 anyway.

so.. mafia isnt a math problem. Its a deduction game based on behavior and decisions. I dont know what it is you are playing but this is not flight of the navigator

My exact thoughts. Damo comes up with these statistical analysis as if it's science when they are entirely predicated on assumptions (his groups) that can be modified easily and completely change the grouping outcomes of players.

It would be better if he used >100 words to describe his reads and reasoning instead of showing math.

[worcej]

Explain then. Why the heck is bozo focusing on the possibility that no scum bussed Macca when the odds are astronomically low?

He doesnt say there were no bussers.

He merely posits a possible team that excludes bussers.

I think you protest too much.

I think you use math too much.

[brainbomb]

theres a 35.768% chance that vecna never read his role PM. if we extrapolate this data and stretch it out over 10 years, youll see that Vecna is at about a 6.8% interest rate as town. Which means if we sign you up on a fixed town mortgage we could live off vecnas town equity for 277 day phases

[bozotheclown]

To be fair, he's not wrong. Someone(s) did get us distracted by the massclaim all day. It wan't a particuarly productive one. But enough people had jumped on the massclaim boat that it had already set sail. Nobody I don't have scum on said it was pro-town to start with, but it happened anyway.

Why do you think D1 was not productive when we lynched a scum?

Do you think Macca was lynched because there was a case on him?

Yes, xorxes was the first vote and here was his case:

Bob and macca are still the scummiest though. Their reluctance to claim if they were VT seems quite unjustified.

Macca probably would not have been the lynch without the mass claim.

[worcej]

emc wasnt willing to name the player or elaborate on what looks like a real scumread

Because EMC is scum himself!

[brainbomb]

I did not think macca was scum based on unwilingness to claim. he was asking people hypothetically what to do as scum in the game thread. lol

[damo666]

I'm trying to get my head around the pressure for a mass claim.

@Damo: Why did you claim so early, when there was no consensus?

@Vecna: Why did you pretend that you felt forced into massclaiming and suggest that a lot of people had claimed already when, in fact, you were just the third person to claim?

I thought it advantageous (agreeing with Bozo) with the game set up and wanted to force the issue. Two reasons:
i) increase town's chance of winning
ii) promote post game discussion about mass claiming [I actually don't like it and think set ups should be 'proofed' to ensure mass claiming does not give either side a big advantage before going live]

I do not like it either and I will enjoy that post-game discussion.

For now, as someone who thinks it advantageous to town, could you explain two things to me?

First of all, why you are convinced it is advantageous to town, and

Second of all, why it is best for town if people only claim Vanilla / Not Vanilla, as you have all done in this case? Usually a massclaim, in a setup where (a) the specific roles are known, and (b) where the setup favours a massclaim as you state this one does, it is customary for people to be asked to claim their actual roles, not just "I am a PR" or "I am not a PR".

a) the numbers
b) the no role reveal

[damo666]

What kind of info, and what info that wouldn't already exist regardless of the massclaim?

You are looking from the outside, not the inside.

I think the fact you are not in a townhead pov adds to your scumitudinesity.

Surely the scum are the ones on the inside as they have more information?

Inside the game I mean. His 5/20 is from an outside the game pov. From tpov it is 5/19.

Scum know what's what so irrelevant.

[worcej]

Damo's thinking:

I assume Xorxes, Bozo, worcej and HR are town.

The following sets are listed in order of scumminess

SET A VT claimants not on Macca [ Donny, Bob, brain]

SET B PR claimants [Chaqa, JF, EMC, TFB, Fla, Bis, Vec]

SET C VT claimants that could have been bussing [rdr, Durga, summit]

Now, there are three possibilities for TRC; Scum, town PR, VT

Scenario 1 TRC is scum

Possible teams

2A +B = 3*7 = 21
A +B+C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 2C = 7*3 = 21
Total 105

Best guess: Bob Chaqa rdr

Scenario 2

TRC town PR

Possibles are

2A + 2B = 3*21 = 63
A + 2B + C = 3*21*3 = 189
2B + 2C = 3*21 = 63
Total 315

Best guess: Bob, Chaqa, JF, rdr

Scenario 3 TRC is VT (the most probable imo)

Possibles are

3A + B = 7
2A + B + C = 3*7*3 = 63
A + B + 2C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 3C = 7

Best guess Bob, Donny, Chaqa, rdr

Grand total 560 but obviously some are more likely than others.

A lot less than 11628 anyway.

Why you assumed HR is town? The others I can understand.

And also why I am the most likely busser when I stated I would lynch Macca even before he has a vote?

Welcome to why damo's math use is completely worthless - it's all based just on his reads and assumptions and is fluff to those reads.