Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[flash2015]

You are very active this game, Bob, especially at night. Why the change? I had a plumbing emergency at home...so this wasn't my highest priority. Not that I like to be especially active this early in the game anyway.

I know that both worcej and chaqa were both obstinate about the massclaim. I didn't like it either. Usually you get townclears from a massclaim, don't you? What townclears do we have now? Unfortunately once the massclaim started there was no stopping it.

I think worcej is his usual obstinate towny self. I don't believe worcej should have told us his partner, but again this is worcej being worcej. Chaqa's late move on the massclaim was definitely anti-town, but I can't see the scum motivation for it. It just made him a target and almost got himself lynched. If he is scum why would he take that risk, especially so early in the game?

[damo666]

I still can't see huge town benefits to the massclaim. I opposed it on principle aswell as on statistics. Out all of our PRs for an 5% increase in chance of hitting scum and then out their exact roles for a further 3% increase on two of them? Not great figures.

Where this numbers came from? Could you explain them?

Well we start with a 25% chance of lynching scum (5/20). Then we split them into PR and VT, with the most likely split (and the one everybody talked about) 3/10 VT and 2/10 PR. 3/10 is 30% which is a rather unimpressive 5% increase on 25%. For the numbers to turn out better at all, we are then forced to assume all PRs claim roles and mafia get CCd. It was assumed by pretty much everyone that mafia would CC the A/B roles for a larger pool, giving 1/3, which is 33%, a 3% increase on 30%. This was all assuming the expected scenario literally everyone was quoting, so don't even try to get up me for it.

You are neglecting that people have info.

[BobMcBob]

You are very active this game, Bob, especially at night. Why the change? I had a plumbing emergency at home...so this wasn't my highest priority. Not that I like to be especially active this early in the game anyway.

I know that both worcej and chaqa were both obstinate about the massclaim. I didn't like it either. Usually you get townclears from a massclaim, don't you? What townclears do we have now? Unfortunately once the massclaim started there was no stopping it.

I think worcej is his usual obstinate towny self. I don't believe worcej should have told us his partner, but again this is worcej being worcej. Chaqa's late move on the massclaim was definitely anti-town, but I can't see the scum motivation for it. It just made him a target and almost got himself lynched. If he is scum why would he take that risk, especially so early in the game?

Well, I had quite a bit of time on my hands today (perhaps more than I'll have for the rest of the game) so I decided to make use of it by making sure I read everything and replied to anything I thought worthwhile. Four hours later, that resulted in a lot of posts. At least now you have plenty of information to go on.

As for you. I'm glad you're back at last. Of course, if your toilet is flooding (or whatever) it's probably best to leave mafia to the side for a bit.

You may be right about Chaqa. It is entirely possible he just hated the massclaim so much he refused to have anything to of with it, or something like that. He did have his argument about taking his role to the grave though, so he knew he could probably hold on on being lynched. Still, perhaps not as scummy as I thought it was.

[damo666]

D1 bussing is a thing that some people would do.

There, see. Jamie says so, it must be a thing. So why exactly is this game an exception to D1 bussing?

For a start we 'know' that at least 3 of the voters are town

[BobMcBob]

Where this numbers came from? Could you explain them?

Well we start with a 25% chance of lynching scum (5/20). Then we split them into PR and VT, with the most likely split (and the one everybody talked about) 3/10 VT and 2/10 PR. 3/10 is 30% which is a rather unimpressive 5% increase on 25%. For the numbers to turn out better at all, we are then forced to assume all PRs claim roles and mafia get CCd. It was assumed by pretty much everyone that mafia would CC the A/B roles for a larger pool, giving 1/3, which is 33%, a 3% increase on 30%. This was all assuming the expected scenario literally everyone was quoting, so don't even try to get up me for it.

You are neglecting that people have info.

What kind of info, and what info that wouldn't already exist regardless of the massclaim?

[damo666]

I'm trying to get my head around the pressure for a mass claim.

@Damo: Why did you claim so early, when there was no consensus?

@Vecna: Why did you pretend that you felt forced into massclaiming and suggest that a lot of people had claimed already when, in fact, you were just the third person to claim?

I thought it advantageous (agreeing with Bozo) with the game set up and wanted to force the issue. Two reasons:
i) increase town's chance of winning
ii) promote post game discussion about mass claiming [I actually don't like it and think set ups should be 'proofed' to ensure mass claiming does not give either side a big advantage before going live]

[damo666]

Well we start with a 25% chance of lynching scum (5/20). Then we split them into PR and VT, with the most likely split (and the one everybody talked about) 3/10 VT and 2/10 PR. 3/10 is 30% which is a rather unimpressive 5% increase on 25%. For the numbers to turn out better at all, we are then forced to assume all PRs claim roles and mafia get CCd. It was assumed by pretty much everyone that mafia would CC the A/B roles for a larger pool, giving 1/3, which is 33%, a 3% increase on 30%. This was all assuming the expected scenario literally everyone was quoting, so don't even try to get up me for it.

You are neglecting that people have info.

What kind of info, and what info that wouldn't already exist regardless of the massclaim?

You are looking from the outside, not the inside.

I think the fact you are not in a townhead pov adds to your scumitudinesity.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm trying to get my head around the pressure for a mass claim.

@Damo: Why did you claim so early, when there was no consensus?

@Vecna: Why did you pretend that you felt forced into massclaiming and suggest that a lot of people had claimed already when, in fact, you were just the third person to claim?

I thought it advantageous (agreeing with Bozo) with the game set up and wanted to force the issue. Two reasons:
i) increase town's chance of winning
ii) promote post game discussion about mass claiming [I actually don't like it and think set ups should be 'proofed' to ensure mass claiming does not give either side a big advantage before going live]

I do not like it either and I will enjoy that post-game discussion.

For now, as someone who thinks it advantageous to town, could you explain two things to me?

First of all, why you are convinced it is advantageous to town, and

Second of all, why it is best for town if people only claim Vanilla / Not Vanilla, as you have all done in this case? Usually a massclaim, in a setup where (a) the specific roles are known, and (b) where the setup favours a massclaim as you state this one does, it is customary for people to be asked to claim their actual roles, not just "I am a PR" or "I am not a PR".

[Jamiet99uk]

You are neglecting that people have info.

What kind of info, and what info that wouldn't already exist regardless of the massclaim?

You are looking from the outside, not the inside.

I think the fact you are not in a townhead pov adds to your scumitudinesity.

Surely the scum are the ones on the inside as they have more information?

[BobMcBob]

You are neglecting that people have info.

What kind of info, and what info that wouldn't already exist regardless of the massclaim?

You are looking from the outside, not the inside.

I think the fact you are not in a townhead pov adds to your scumitudinesity.

When I ask you to explain, I expect an explanation, not a veiled nonsensical answer complete with a scumread on me. I will ask again, what extra information do we have that would not exist if we hadn't massclaimed?

[BobMcBob]

It also happens to be past midnight now, so I'm going to bed. I won't be answering anything in my sleep, just be aware.

[Vecna]

I'm trying to get my head around the pressure for a mass claim.

@Damo: Why did you claim so early, when there was no consensus?

@Vecna: Why did you pretend that you felt forced into massclaiming and suggest that a lot of people had claimed already when, in fact, you were just the third person to claim?

I thought it advantageous (agreeing with Bozo) with the game set up and wanted to force the issue. Two reasons:
i) increase town's chance of winning
ii) promote post game discussion about mass claiming [I actually don't like it and think set ups should be 'proofed' to ensure mass claiming does not give either side a big advantage before going live]

I do not like it either and I will enjoy that post-game discussion.

For now, as someone who thinks it advantageous to town, could you explain two things to me?

First of all, why you are convinced it is advantageous to town, and

Second of all, why it is best for town if people only claim Vanilla / Not Vanilla, as you have all done in this case? Usually a massclaim, in a setup where (a) the specific roles are known, and (b) where the setup favours a massclaim as you state this one does, it is customary for people to be asked to claim their actual roles, not just "I am a PR" or "I am not a PR".

Jamiet, I appreciate you replacing in, but itd be great if we can stop discussing massclaim now.

one full day of that is more than enough

[Vecna]

And its not like scum cant come up with reasons why its one way or the other, so it really doesnt help in reading people. Theres a reason scum love to hide behind mechanics.

[brainbomb]

as a GM the first thing I do as soon as I make a fun setup, I ask myself who will fuck this up doing something stupid?

If you make a role madness setup with a ton of PR, those PR will want to claim and of course you have to protect scum from autoloss as a gm. thats why you do semi open, or sequential rolemadness or nonstatic undefined PR that can be either align.

enough game theory banter, what was your chat with macca like, bob?

[brainbomb]

vecna why do you keep acting shocked by things I say.

this is you this game

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy ... UITk3Rk-vA

[Durga]

Sooo many pages for night.

[brainbomb]

Sooo many pages for night.

The norm for webdip hit a tipping point in the M40's where post volume increased. It wasnt bb who topped 100 posts a phase anymore at that point. In some instances up to 9 people post 100 messages a phase or more

[brainbomb]

Im in favor of ending night discussion entirely. its not a thing most places

[Durga]

I think the most damning thing about Chaqa was the totally unexplained vote on Bozo with about five minutes to go when it became clear that it was either Bozo or Macca on the block.

Is Chaqa making the wrong choice as town really that shocking? I think not

[worcej]

I'll bring this up again since it got lost:

I am pretty sure my buddy is scum.

Anyone else feel that way based on their convos, or was I the only one trying to engage with them enough?

Wouldn't it make much more sense to make a case against them without mentioning that they're your buddy? What use is it for us to know you suspect them since we don't know who they are?

I have to agree this was at the very least a poorly thought out conversation topic. At worst it was a malicious scum move but I can't say for sure. Worcej on the surface is starting to seem quite scummy but my gut still says no. I'll take a look at the main people against him later (perhaps once voting starts tomorrow) and see which side I think is more likely town.

I did that intentionally to see how emc would react - I brought it up a second time to still see if he would react, knowing he was reading the thread.

He never did anything - when Chaqa was concerned he was scum (when emc wasn't), emc tried to explain it to him and defend himself. This time, he never said a word.

Then his EOD vote was shit - emc is definitely not an experienced scum player so bussing would be something he wouldn't just do (imho), so panicing onto a worthless vote makes sense.