Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[Jamiet99uk]

And to everyone, a disclaimer and an apology: I did not really follow the game prior to subbing in. Therefore, if I ask a question you have already answered, please forgive me.

[damo666]

Scum have two nightkills?

I didn't see that in the setup info.

Confused.

Faking

Sorry Damo but no I'm not.

I very rarely sub into games. I'm almost always involved from D1 so this is all a bit weird for me.

I read the setup info about the "Buddy" thing and it specifically says that if your buddy is killed, you may be assigned a new buddy. It doesn't say anything (as far as I can see) about people dying if their buddy is killed.

Although there is also a reference to some kind of secret "special" mechanic.

Has that been explained? Is that what Vecna is talking about? Or is it just a case of making assumptions?

Scum have the option of going for a double kill but this is only successful if they have if the targets are a buddy pair.

[damo666]

If Jamie is genuine and Chaqa was being a cussid town PR (in which case he deserves a bollocking) then maybe

JF EMC Bob Donny

[Jamiet99uk]

Faking

Sorry Damo but no I'm not.

I very rarely sub into games. I'm almost always involved from D1 so this is all a bit weird for me.

I read the setup info about the "Buddy" thing and it specifically says that if your buddy is killed, you may be assigned a new buddy. It doesn't say anything (as far as I can see) about people dying if their buddy is killed.

Although there is also a reference to some kind of secret "special" mechanic.

Has that been explained? Is that what Vecna is talking about? Or is it just a case of making assumptions?

Scum have the option of going for a double kill but this is only successful if they have if the targets are a buddy pair.

Oh!

I see it now. I'm not sure why that didn't leap out to me when I first read the rules post, sorry.

"The mafia team can also attempt a double kill in place of the nightkill and roleblock. To perform a double kill, the mafia team will select two targets. If these two players are buddies, they will both be sent home. However, if they are not buddies, neither player is sent home. One mafia member will perform both kills. If either the kill or roleblock or double kill fails for any reason, you will receive a message alerting you that your action failed."

Right ok, so anyone disclosing who their buddy is, is either (1) lying, (2) a fool, or (3) a town player totally convinced their buddy is scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm trying to get my head around the pressure for a mass claim.

@Damo: Why did you claim so early, when there was no consensus?

@Vecna: Why did you pretend that you felt forced into massclaiming and suggest that a lot of people had claimed already when, in fact, you were just the third person to claim?

[BobMcBob]

I've asked a few times for people to explain the benefit of this massclaim to me, and as of yet no one has done so.

Until someone reasonably explains why it's beneficial, it seems like a scum tactic to me.

This reeks of scumminess. Regardless of whether or not it was scum-initiated the massclaim was a thing, there was no avoiding it, and not claiming had ceased to be a good idea unless you were worcej, in which case backing out early would have pretty much guaranteed a lynch. And then saying he can't see a reason it would be beneficial after 3 people had explained the benefits? Chaqa is accruing scum points at an alarming rate.

This post is certainly odd to me.

Why was this scummy for Chaqa to do, but you proclaimed it widely towny for yourself and Worcej?

Maybe chaqa was a bit later, but what was different in his stubbornness and yours? You dont think he also mightve been annoyed another game resulted in a massclaim?

The reason I felt it was different was because (as I think I mentioned earlier) he tried to say that he could see no reason for mass claiming after it was explained numerous times why he needed to. It just gave off a lot more "I'm gonna distract you all by refusing to claim" vibes than worcej, where the distraction seemed to he a side-effect. As I said, more manner and gut analysis than actions analysis.

[BobMcBob]

Hey Bob,
Who are you referring to here?
Is it Macca or yet unnamed and should remain unnamed person?

I was wondering when someone would pick up on that... I would've pointed it out later if nobody noticed, but yes, Macca was indeed my buddy. I think it may give us some decent insights into how his brain was functioning, so I dropped all the relevant quotes here.

Bro, you just gave scum free information on town pairings. They didnt know that yet.

*PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT*

The more info you give scum about pairings, the closer they will come to an endgame state where they know all the pairings and can NK 2 people/night.

STOP fucking claiming pairs

Stop fucking mentioning pairs

Stop giving information on what your partner has said that scum can use to narrow down pairs

There probably is some damo or bozo in scumchat with a spreadsheet keeping track of everything, and I bet by now they have more than half of the pairs figured out already because everyone is giving them free information

Okay, sorry, I thought it would be useful to know that information and that I wouldn't be revealing anything useful to scum because it wasn't revealing a chat that actually existed anymore. And anyway, I still think that information may be useful for determining what Macca was doing and how we was actually interacting as scum. Like why did he say bb was definitely scum?

[BobMcBob]

And also Vecna, do you still town read me? I have a point to prove about no-one listening to you when you townread me.

[BobMcBob]

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

Not losing a teammate on D1 and getting a myslynch? What reasons people have to buss at that point unless Bozo is also scum?

I really don't get your logic and I am having a hard time looking for a town mentality behind it.

Well we all know my feelings about bozo. And yeah, from what I'd heard from previous games, I thought D1 bussing was a thing people did. I'm sure I remember a conversation on D1 in M53 that centred around bussing. Not sure why this game is any different.

[BobMcBob]

It does make sense

Explain then. Why the heck is bozo focusing on the possibility that no scum bussed Macca when the odds are astronomically low?

Why the odds are astronomically low? Show them. Who do you think was bussing on the VTs?

Unless you have some info we don't have.

Well with if we go with straight chance and multiply our fractions, there's a 2% chance that no scum were on the Macca wagon. Add to that my (perhaps mistaken) assumption that D1 bussing is a thing people do and we get an astronomically low chance.

As for who, I'm not sure, I was talking general numbers and strats. Since you asked though, a cursory VCA (I don't know enough to do a particularly deep one) gives Hellenic, or potentially damp for tying purposes. I maintain that VCA is not the best way to go about this though, scum surely know how to vote to look better on it and I'm not exactly qualified to do it either.

[Jamiet99uk]

D1 bussing is a thing that some people would do.

[BobMcBob]

Fear that the massclaim favours the clean scouts (which it does). Right now, the 4 dirty scouts left are fretting about impending doom, and likely tossing up their chances at a double-kill tonight to feel better about the D1 disaster.

I still can't see huge town benefits to the massclaim. I opposed it on principle aswell as on statistics. Out all of our PRs for an 5% increase in chance of hitting scum and then out their exact roles for a further 3% increase on two of them? Not great figures.

Where this numbers came from? Could you explain them?

Well we start with a 25% chance of lynching scum (5/20). Then we split them into PR and VT, with the most likely split (and the one everybody talked about) 3/10 VT and 2/10 PR. 3/10 is 30% which is a rather unimpressive 5% increase on 25%. For the numbers to turn out better at all, we are then forced to assume all PRs claim roles and mafia get CCd. It was assumed by pretty much everyone that mafia would CC the A/B roles for a larger pool, giving 1/3, which is 33%, a 3% increase on 30%. This was all assuming the expected scenario literally everyone was quoting, so don't even try to get up me for it.

[BobMcBob]

D1 bussing is a thing that some people would do.

There, see. Jamie says so, it must be a thing. So why exactly is this game an exception to D1 bussing?

[Jamiet99uk]

D1 bussing is a thing that some people would do.

There, see. Jamie says so, it must be a thing. So why exactly is this game an exception to D1 bussing?

People often make generalisations and assumptions about particular elements of townplay or scumplay like this.

Wait for Xorxes to tell you he never busses

[Vecna]

I was wondering when someone would pick up on that... I would've pointed it out later if nobody noticed, but yes, Macca was indeed my buddy. I think it may give us some decent insights into how his brain was functioning, so I dropped all the relevant quotes here.

Bro, you just gave scum free information on town pairings. They didnt know that yet.

*PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT*

The more info you give scum about pairings, the closer they will come to an endgame state where they know all the pairings and can NK 2 people/night.

STOP fucking claiming pairs

Stop fucking mentioning pairs

Stop giving information on what your partner has said that scum can use to narrow down pairs

There probably is some damo or bozo in scumchat with a spreadsheet keeping track of everything, and I bet by now they have more than half of the pairs figured out already because everyone is giving them free information

Okay, sorry, I thought it would be useful to know that information and that I wouldn't be revealing anything useful to scum because it wasn't revealing a chat that actually existed anymore. And anyway, I still think that information may be useful for determining what Macca was doing and how we was actually interacting as scum. Like why did he say bb was definitely scum?

The upside to you having a buddy chat with Macca:

It sort of invalidates the argument going around that you were stepping in for Macca when brainbomb was questioning him (since you couldve just done it in buddy chat).

[Jamiet99uk]

Hello Vecna did you notice that I asked you a question?

[BobMcBob]

Okay, bear with me as I fail to do a VCA. Flash was odd. He voted in the first hour of the game and didn't shift his vote the entire phase. He also only posted 5 times all phase, and hasn't posted tonight. Seems to be lurking, perhaps because he's scum.

TRC before he disappeared voted for flash. This pretty much rules out the two as an S-S pair. I think one of them is likely scum, but can't say which.

Bismarck voted worcej early for his joke plan counter to the massclaim. This vote never moved. I assume this vote was backed up later by doubling down on worcej for refusing to claim though.

Macca voted worcej when he knew he wouldn't be on for the rest of the day which I doubt he'd've done if worcej was scum, especially hopping on when worcej was very much a viable lynch.

Emc flops to TRC at the last minute. Not sure why or what he thought he would achieve, but it doesn't look too good on him.

Getting to the two EoD wagons, quite a bit of information could be gained from a bozo alignment flip. (Not that that's something we should necessarily do). However, if he flips scum, it means Macca voters are a lot more likely to be scum than we're currently assuming. If he flips town there's probably at most two scum on Macca, likely one, maybe xorx or rivera who wanted to to deepscum or had no choice but to stay on the wagon or get slammed for hopping off, or perhaps damo or riot tried to tie it in the last minute. In itself it's probably not enough to warrant lynching bozo but given that I already scumread him, it may no be so bad.

[Vecna]

I didnt feel like getting stuck in an endless debate with xorxes/bozo/damo about whether massclaim was a good or bad idea jamiet. So I decided to instead of making myself angry over them trying to reduce the fun of the setup, id just be a productive boy and try to make the best of the situation after two people had already claimed.

[Vecna]

Also as a callout to the docs: im not sure if focussing everything on worcej/emc is a great call here.

If theyre both town, scum are probably just as confused whether theyre telling the truth, or worcej just made up a random pairing. Its also possible from their pov that theyre just JOATs trying to attract kills.

dont take this as an instruction. Use your best judgement ofcourse, but scum are quite likely to kill outside of those two, and I would not be surprised at all if theyre trying to gun me or xorxes down.

Try to be unpredictable. Try to predict the most likely scum kill while keeping all this in mind.

[BismarckAlive]

Is there a post summarising accurately all of the claims that were made?

Current Masscl​aim Split
PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck, JF, Chaqa, Worcej (9)
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, BobMcBob (9)

Unclaimed:
TRC

There are at least 1 dirty scout in the PR list, and at least 2 dirty scouts in the VT list

Mental Note: 4 Dirty Scouts left (VT claimant dirty Macca lynched D1)