Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[BobMcBob]

Right, he also voted for worcej later. Yeah, I think we can consider worcej town.

I am not sure we can consider Macca's votes as confirming Worcej as Town. The dirty scouts did not have a day tent to coordinate. We can say Macca considered Worcej to be Town.

This is a real townslip or what?

How the heck is that a townslip? I know it doesn't specify mafia don't have day chat, but it's an assumption most people probably made.

[Donny Dude]

Hey Bob,
Who are you referring to here?
Is it Macca or yet unnamed and should remain unnamed person?

I was wondering when someone would pick up on that... I would've pointed it out later if nobody noticed, but yes, Macca was indeed my buddy. I think it may give us some decent insights into how his brain was functioning, so I dropped all the relevant quotes here.

If you turn out to be scum, I will be impressed that you fabricated all of that.

I agree on Bozo on this point and am leaning more town on you than before.

[brainbomb]

BismarckAlive. PR claim, early ping reads on myself and donny. some solvy looking activity. Probably not a deep fake. was not on bozo, chaqa, or macca at EOD. Town

BobMcBob. haughty, argumentative. Seemed scummy early. Has fought with most players so far. Bozo voter. Not in his scum meta which is more hiding. VT claim, was in a chat with macca which also increases odds of being a goodie. Slight Town

bozo. is my chat buddy. was counter wagon to potentially 2 scum d1. Has been mostly mechanical. Tonally very dry, flat, unfulfilling. passionless. N1 he has emerged a bit more. Time usually tells. VT claim. I still stand by my townread on bozo and see no reason to lynch him. Town

brainbomb on a chariot drawn by orphans

Chaqa/Jamiet99uk. The attitude, the lurking, the lack of reads. the capitulating. the sub out. the attempts to push bozo but not macca, the desire to just stay alive despite having no drive to play seems odd. Scum

damo666. Based on how day 1 wagons shifted, and damo tonight I am okay with it.

Donny Dude. donny is very skittish, and likes to sheep ppl. He tends to be a yes man who doesnt think for himself. That being said hes been much more indeoendent and confudent. town

Durga based on how macca lynch happened and chaqa lynch, durga is nearly cleared as town. If theres any chance at a long con its probably not a thing given how shes played. Town

e.m.c possible scum fake PR. appeared on 2 occasions to be trying to save macca.

flash2015 - Stuck in his tradition. And it basically wastes a day for him. PR claim. didnt do shit d1. Null

Hellenic Riot - Based on reaction to the macca flip id say town.

JF1981 - claimed PR. hasnt done shit. Null

Macca573 daed

rdrivera - #2 voter on macca. lots of lurking. Slight scum.

summit - Seems to be in his town mindset. lynched scum. Town

TheFlyingBoat - Hasnt done shit. claimed PR. Null

TheRealCottonmouth - VT, hasnt done shit. Null

Vecna Claimed PR but didnt want too. feverishly spoke against roleswaps. Slight Town

worcej - Claimed last. fate tied to emc now. Was starting to seem town to ne anyway

xorxes - I think if anyone could infiltrated town and devise a evil plot its this guy. I like volume, tone by xorxes. It isnt enough to trust him. He could be deep scum designated to bus. slight scum

[BobMcBob]

I am not sure we can consider Macca's votes as confirming Worcej as Town. The dirty scouts did not have a day tent to coordinate. We can say Macca considered Worcej to be Town.

...?

The scum team know who each of their teammates are on D1...

How do you know? There was nothing about that in the setup...

As I said, a very reasonable assumption to make. In fact, I doubt Squigs would've not specified that if it was the case, he'd have known he needed to because it was different from normal.

[brainbomb]

my first mafia game was 41 games ago.

tell me why chaq99uka is not the lynch

[TheFlyingBoat]

N1 Non-posters
BobMcBob
Durga
flash2015
JF1981
rdrivera2005
summit_fever
TheFlyingBoat
TheRealCottonmouth

Is this because the discussion in the Dirty Scout tent is intense, with a lot of strategising, discussing the thread, ruminating their kill(s)? How many scum in this list?

i can guarantee you at least one of them was sleeping during the night because they don't want to stay awake 24/7 just to play mafia.

Tbh I was just busy with work. I'm in PDT so I'll be going to be shortly though. Glad we got a lucky scum roll even though going to into the vote I thought I was correct in my guess. I'll catch up on everything else though before I hit the sack and see if I have any reason to think I'm wrong.

[BobMcBob]

BobMcBob. haughty, argumentative. Seemed scummy early. Has fought with most players so far. Bozo voter. Not in his scum meta which is more hiding. VT claim, was in a chat with macca which also increases odds of being a goodie. Slight Town

Donny Dude. donny is very skittish, and likes to sheep ppl. He tends to be a yes man who doesnt think for himself. That being said hes been much more indeoendent and confudent. town

Odd choice. I was convinced I was being more independent and confident this game than any of my previous games. I guess it just came off as argumentative instead?

[BobMcBob]

The mafia chat is exceedingly empty, because nobody can chat in it. It's daytime. obviously.

This could be a scum slip, since I believe the setup does not specifically say the mafia chat in night only.

Mhm, because I would check the rules and realise this very standard piece of information was missing. Mhm, gotcha. Also no.

[BobMcBob]

And I've finally caught up. I'm going to take a short break, go interact with the origami discord, work on my assignment due tomorrow, do some VCA, read up on some people that have flown largely under my radar, then come back.

[rdrivera2005]

Poor reasoning? Yeah lmao

Yes, it was absolutely terrible move when there was a tie on the table at the time. You needed to pick and decided to distance instead.

Exactly. Emc and Chaqa/Jamiet are my top picks for scum on the PR claimants.

[rdrivera2005]

VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, BobMcBob (9)

Macca573 (7): xorxes rdrivera2005 bozotheclown Durga summit_fever Hellenic Riot damo666

The overlap here is interesting. With at least 2 scum in the VT claims, possibly 3, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob are the only possibilities that would not have been bussing Macca.

Maybe the remaining scum are Jamie, TRC, brainbomb, and Bob.

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

I think there is some logic in this post. If TRC is scum we have 1 PR claiming as scum and 2 VTs. Looking the VTs that didn't vote Macca, you and Bb are the scummiest.

[rdrivera2005]

Omg Chaqa just reveal so we can get on with our lives. Don't play like this it's anti town.

Every person who criticizes me but doesn't explain the rationale behind the massclaim is just proving my point.

If it was so pro-town, you'd all have the reasoning lined up.

Someone let you all get distracted by this nonsense the entire first day.

To be fair, he's not wrong. Someone(s) did get us distracted by the massclaim all day. It wan't a particuarly productive one. But enough people had jumped on the massclaim boat that it had already set sail. Nobody I don't have scum on said it was pro-town to start with, but it happened anyway.

Really? I think it was productive, we catch a scum and get a lot of info. By the way, do you think we would have cacthed Macca without the massclaim ? The main reason to vote him was how he reacted to it. You also have a strong read on Chaqa on how he reacted on the massclaim, but you think it wasn't productive?

[rdrivera2005]

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

Not losing a teammate on D1 and getting a myslynch? What reasons people have to buss at that point unless Bozo is also scum?

I really don't get your logic and I am having a hard time looking for a town mentality behind it.

[rdrivera2005]

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

It does make sense

Explain then. Why the heck is bozo focusing on the possibility that no scum bussed Macca when the odds are astronomically low?

Why the odds are astronomically low? Show them. Who do you think was bussing on the VTs?

Unless you have some info we don't have.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Ok based on a preliminary very tired post work read I'm pretty confident that Chaqa/Jamie is scum. I've been mostly convinced by the arguments of others that I was wrong on my bozo vote.

After that based on worcej's claim I think emc is scum as well. I get a strong town read on him. We'll see.

I, as someone getting back into mafia after not having played it in like 8 years, definitely appreciated Vecna's PR guide for how to deal with this wild set up and other similar posts that generally made me think he is town.

By the same token while Vecna seemed to be committed to coaching town, xorxes seemed at a couple points to be coaching scum. That being said his voting makes me think he is town. Possibly LyLo option?

Those were my initial thoughts. Will give a full read through in the morning and come back with more opinions. Now it's almost 2 though and I need sleep.

[rdrivera2005]

Damo's thinking:

I assume Xorxes, Bozo, worcej and HR are town.

The following sets are listed in order of scumminess

SET A VT claimants not on Macca [ Donny, Bob, brain]

SET B PR claimants [Chaqa, JF, EMC, TFB, Fla, Bis, Vec]

SET C VT claimants that could have been bussing [rdr, Durga, summit]

Now, there are three possibilities for TRC; Scum, town PR, VT

Scenario 1 TRC is scum

Possible teams

2A +B = 3*7 = 21
A +B+C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 2C = 7*3 = 21
Total 105

Best guess: Bob Chaqa rdr

Scenario 2

TRC town PR

Possibles are

2A + 2B = 3*21 = 63
A + 2B + C = 3*21*3 = 189
2B + 2C = 3*21 = 63
Total 315

Best guess: Bob, Chaqa, JF, rdr

Scenario 3 TRC is VT (the most probable imo)

Possibles are

3A + B = 7
2A + B + C = 3*7*3 = 63
A + B + 2C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 3C = 7

Best guess Bob, Donny, Chaqa, rdr

Grand total 560 but obviously some are more likely than others.

A lot less than 11628 anyway.

Why you assumed HR is town? The others I can understand.

And also why I am the most likely busser when I stated I would lynch Macca even before he has a vote?

[rdrivera2005]

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

Fear that the massclaim favours the clean scouts (which it does). Right now, the 4 dirty scouts left are fretting about impending doom, and likely tossing up their chances at a double-kill tonight to feel better about the D1 disaster.

I still can't see huge town benefits to the massclaim. I opposed it on principle aswell as on statistics. Out all of our PRs for an 5% increase in chance of hitting scum and then out their exact roles for a further 3% increase on two of them? Not great figures.

Where this numbers came from? Could you explain them?

[rdrivera2005]

I am not sure we can consider Macca's votes as confirming Worcej as Town. The dirty scouts did not have a day tent to coordinate. We can say Macca considered Worcej to be Town.

This is a real townslip or what?

How the heck is that a townslip? I know it doesn't specify mafia don't have day chat, but it's an assumption most people probably made.

Yes, but he was assuming Mafia didn't knew his partners which is different. The setup also doesn't specify this, but I can't remember a game where you didn't get this info as Mafia.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Notes on the setup and general hints on how to approach this for our newer players:

-Under no circumstance claim your buddy in the thread

-There is a 5/13 chance that your buddy is scum (scout master not having a buddy and you knowing your own alignment make it so). Those odds are significant. Use cautious suspicion and do not be too quick to trust any reads there straight away.

-Do not tell your buddy your role. Do not let your buddy convince you that it is in your best interest to do so. Mafia will try to use the buddy chats to gather information and make strategies to permanently turn off certain roles via their roleblock and switch abilities.

-If you are an investigative role, determine for yourself when and if you want to trust your buddy. Gather some good information first! THEN after you have significant intel that can help us, share it with your buddy. Make him tell the thread so that scum cannot kill or roleblock you! Having only one result is generally too little to out, but make a good judgement on how likely it is you are going to be mislynched or nightkilled.

-Also do not share info on whether your action failed initially with your buddy. If they are scum, this will help them narrow down everyone's role.

-Scoutmaster: Since you do not have a buddy. gather information for as long as possible. Choose different targets to do your watching for you. Do not make it too obvious that you are waiting for your watcher to reveal the outcome. Use an end of night information dump-post one minute before deadline of night to share the information when you have enough of it.

-Senior patrol leader: One of our most important roles. Use good judgement, but beware: For your results to be usefull, the pairs have to be outted. Which means scum can kill them straight away. If you can stay alive long enough, you might be able to break the setup wide open. Dont shoot your load too early.

-Quartermaster: Your role can very well be detrimental to town, unless you luckily get paired up with the senior patrol leader. The odds of that happening are astonishingly low. It might be best if you just do not share your info, since its more likely to benefit scum than town, especially early on

-First aid and troop cool guys: Little advise to give. Use proper judgement. Beware using those roleblocks in the early game since they are much more likely to harm town than scum. Lategame they can be used to stop a nightkill and be devastating to scum. Using the roleblock properly is your strongest tool if done properly. The odds of you dying on the night you are predicting is low. Scum are unlikely to play predictably this game.

-Good patrol leader: Please, put your switch to B as soon as you can. Getting false guilties for town is nowhere near as bad as getting false clears. One creates a mislynch, the other is likely to lose town the entire game. Those scum roles are unlikely to do anything in the early game, but disabling the lawyer is much more usefull than disabling the other role. Getting townclears will help break scum fake-claiming in the lategame.

A resource for fellow town PRs for the first turn btw

[Vecna]

The problem with trying to read into macca's posts is that we have no idea whether he really was confused and not sure what was happening; or if he was putting on a show the entire time. Given the wildly different conclusions we would make depending on that, I'm not even going to try there. We have a very solid lead on the way the wagons formed up and I think that's a far brighter path to head down.

So what path would you go down to get us meaningful leads?