Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[damo666]

Damo's thinking:

I assume Xorxes, Bozo, worcej and HR are town.

The following sets are listed in order of scumminess

SET A VT claimants not on Macca [ Donny, Bob, brain]

SET B PR claimants [Chaqa, JF, EMC, TFB, Fla, Bis, Vec]

SET C VT claimants that could have been bussing [rdr, Durga, summit]

Now, there are three possibilities for TRC; Scum, town PR, VT

Scenario 1 TRC is scum

Possible teams

2A +B = 3*7 = 21
A +B+C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 2C = 7*3 = 21
Total 105

Best guess: Bob Chaqa rdr

Scenario 2

TRC town PR

Possibles are

2A + 2B = 3*21 = 63
A + 2B + C = 3*21*3 = 189
2B + 2C = 3*21 = 63
Total 315

Best guess: Bob, Chaqa, JF, rdr

Scenario 3 TRC is VT (the most probable imo)

Possibles are

3A + B = 7
2A + B + C = 3*7*3 = 63
A + B + 2C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 3C = 7

Best guess Bob, Donny, Chaqa, rdr

Grand total 560 but obviously some are more likely than others.

A lot less than 11628 anyway.

[brainbomb]

the odds that maccas chat partner was scum are quite low as well. yes?

[BobMcBob]

Chaqa's latevote on Bozo looks terrible, EMC latevoting on neither of the main wagons is also pretty suspicious


On the counterside, Durga's change from Bozo to Macca looks very good. And I might have to pull off damo for that deciding vote, unless it was a misguided attempt to tie it I guess.

Also, remember Bob's quick response to brain before macca had a chance to respond.

Good point. And Bob was on the Bozo wagon too.

I should've known that joke was going to go down the wrong way. It wasn't even particularly quick... I have clearly stated my reasons for voting bozo numerous times. I was also asleep for 8 hours leading up to EoD. I will admit the EoD does make bozo look significantly better now though. Xorxes is once again crunching down on my small missteps, and I won't be at all surprised if he starts trying to say I've been "hedgy and forced" in all my posts and that warrants lynching me. Watch this space.

[brainbomb]

Damo's thinking:

I assume Xorxes, Bozo, worcej and HR are town.

The following sets are listed in order of scumminess

SET A VT claimants not on Macca [ Donny, Bob, brain]

SET B PR claimants [Chaqa, JF, EMC, TFB, Fla, Bis, Vec]

SET C VT claimants that could have been bussing [rdr, Durga, summit]

Now, there are three possibilities for TRC; Scum, town PR, VT

Scenario 1 TRC is scum

Possible teams

2A +B = 3*7 = 21
A +B+C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 2C = 7*3 = 21
Total 105

Best guess: Bob Chaqa rdr

Scenario 2

TRC town PR

Possibles are

2A + 2B = 3*21 = 63
A + 2B + C = 3*21*3 = 189
2B + 2C = 3*21 = 63
Total 315

Best guess: Bob, Chaqa, JF, rdr

Scenario 3 TRC is VT (the most probable imo)

Possibles are

3A + B = 7
2A + B + C = 3*7*3 = 63
A + B + 2C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 3C = 7

Best guess Bob, Donny, Chaqa, rdr

Grand total 560 but obviously some are more likely than others.

A lot less than 11628 anyway.

so.. mafia isnt a math problem. Its a deduction game based on behavior and decisions. I dont know what it is you are playing but this is not flight of the navigator

[damo666]

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

It does make sense

Explain then. Why the heck is bozo focusing on the possibility that no scum bussed Macca when the odds are astronomically low?

He doesnt say there were no bussers.

[bozotheclown]

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

Yes, there may be a busser, but I am not sure who is most likely.

Why do you think Macca was one of the mafia's least useful members?

[brainbomb]

Also, remember Bob's quick response to brain before macca had a chance to respond.

Good point. And Bob was on the Bozo wagon too.

I should've known that joke was going to go down the wrong way. It wasn't even particularly quick... I have clearly stated my reasons for voting bozo numerous times. I was also asleep for 8 hours leading up to EoD. I will admit the EoD does make bozo look significantly better now though. Xorxes is once again crunching down on my small missteps, and I won't be at all surprised if he starts trying to say I've been "hedgy and forced" in all my posts and that warrants lynching me. Watch this space.

you do always fixate on people talking about you. I usually get furious inevitably at some imbecile. What do you do in real life,offline

[BismarckAlive]

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

If Bozo is NK'd tonight, we will certainly know why. Right now I would support lynching any of those three in D2 on spectacular odds.

I wouldn't call these spectacular odds. I wouldn't be surprised if he's setting up for an easy mislynch. Not saying that's what it is, but the logic doesn't hold up. As I already said, the odds no scum bussed Macca out of seven voters is ridiculously low, almost insignificant. Focusing on that tiny possibility to draw scumreads is very poor form.

I think you are grasping at straws. Offer some reads instead of just questioning everyone.

[damo666]

It does make sense

Explain then. Why the heck is bozo focusing on the possibility that no scum bussed Macca when the odds are astronomically low?

He doesnt say there were no bussers.

He merely posits a possible team that excludes bussers.

I think you protest too much.

[BobMcBob]

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

Fear that the massclaim favours the clean scouts (which it does). Right now, the 4 dirty scouts left are fretting about impending doom, and likely tossing up their chances at a double-kill tonight to feel better about the D1 disaster.

I still can't see huge town benefits to the massclaim. I opposed it on principle aswell as on statistics. Out all of our PRs for an 5% increase in chance of hitting scum and then out their exact roles for a further 3% increase on two of them? Not great figures.

[BobMcBob]

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

Yes, there may be a busser, but I am not sure who is most likely.

Why do you think Macca was one of the mafia's least useful members?

Well, he was knew and not doing much. He was overplaying the noob card. He was unsure how to make himself look like he was doing something useful. Of course there may have been other less useful members but Macca would've been up there.

[brainbomb]

One of the newer players tingle me for some reason, but I can't pin down who. Something about that exchange is just eh.

"players"? Plural?

Who else is new, I need to know who to gang up on.

Sorry, "team up with".

lol.
Heres a dead scum asking emc who to gang up on.

[brainbomb]

emc wasnt willing to name the player or elaborate on what looks like a real scumread

[brainbomb]

id entertain a lynch on macca or rivera as well

Still catching up but ##vote rivera then, I'll elaborate once caught up lol

[BobMcBob]

If Bozo is NK'd tonight, we will certainly know why. Right now I would support lynching any of those three in D2 on spectacular odds.

I wouldn't call these spectacular odds. I wouldn't be surprised if he's setting up for an easy mislynch. Not saying that's what it is, but the logic doesn't hold up. As I already said, the odds no scum bussed Macca out of seven voters is ridiculously low, almost insignificant. Focusing on that tiny possibility to draw scumreads is very poor form.

I think you are grasping at straws. Offer some reads instead of just questioning everyone.

I'm catching up okay? I feel like I have been offering useful information and thoughts around as I go. Whenever I do post reads, someone always gets up me for being hedgy, forced or both. I intend to post an actual list later but if you've missed the fact that I scumread bozo, damo and Chaqa I suggest you go back and read the last few pages.

[brainbomb]

So as far as I can tell rivera and emc can never be scum based on how that went down. but emc can 100% be a deepscum, who was nervous macca was losing wim

[BismarckAlive]

Damo's thinking:

I assume Xorxes, Bozo, worcej and HR are town.

The following sets are listed in order of scumminess

SET A VT claimants not on Macca [ Donny, Bob, brain]

SET B PR claimants [Chaqa, JF, EMC, TFB, Fla, Bis, Vec]

SET C VT claimants that could have been bussing [rdr, Durga, summit]

Now, there are three possibilities for TRC; Scum, town PR, VT

Scenario 1 TRC is scum

Possible teams

2A +B = 3*7 = 21
A +B+C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 2C = 7*3 = 21
Total 105

Best guess: Bob Chaqa rdr

Scenario 2

TRC town PR

Possibles are

2A + 2B = 3*21 = 63
A + 2B + C = 3*21*3 = 189
2B + 2C = 3*21 = 63
Total 315

Best guess: Bob, Chaqa, JF, rdr

Scenario 3 TRC is VT (the most probable imo)

Possibles are

3A + B = 7
2A + B + C = 3*7*3 = 63
A + B + 2C = 3*7*3 = 63
B + 3C = 7

Best guess Bob, Donny, Chaqa, rdr

Grand total 560 but obviously some are more likely than others.

A lot less than 11628 anyway.

so.. mafia isnt a math problem. Its a deduction game based on behavior and decisions. I dont know what it is you are playing but this is not flight of the navigator

I disagree. Maths rules the world! And the massclaim now introduces a third source of information for observation, deduction, analysis of behaviour on top of the usual sources of meta, interactions, voting behaviour etc. This is good for Town, no question. It is why we saw mafia player(s) fretting, coaching etc

[BobMcBob]

Meh, I still think bozo is potentially scum but was just the higher value save

He has a point. A possibility some people conveniently ignore.

[Donny Dude]

I'll bring this up again since it got lost:

I am pretty sure my buddy is scum.

Anyone else feel that way based on their convos, or was I the only one trying to engage with them enough?

I'm pretty sure my buddy was scum. Let's drop some quotes:

"Brainbomb is definitely mafia"

"I oppose [the massclaim]. But I don't want to be seen to oppose it, you guys are getting slammed."

"I'm trying to claim ignorance..."

"Idea.

I am VT, so if you are PR, we claim opposites and you can keep your role hidden from scum.

Is this a good plan? Or am I missing something?"

That makes bb look slightly better than he does otherwise, because why else would a scum noob say they though bb was scum in the buddy chat? Unless they were trying to signal me in case I was mafia? Not sure they would've had that idea though. The other quotes also give us a bit of insight (hopefully) into why he acted the way he did. He was overclaiming ignorance and lack of knowledge by the looks.

Hey Bob,
Who are you referring to here?
Is it Macca or yet unnamed and should remain unnamed person?

[brainbomb]

Dunno about Macca, he seemed soft and adorable

but this doesnt feel like something scum says 15 seconds before a buddy gets iced