Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[BismarckAlive]

VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, BobMcBob (9)

Macca573 (7): xorxes rdrivera2005 bozotheclown Durga summit_fever Hellenic Riot damo666

The overlap here is interesting. With at least 2 scum in the VT claims, possibly 3, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob are the only possibilities that would not have been bussing Macca.

Maybe the remaining scum are Jamie, TRC, brainbomb, and Bob.

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

If Bozo is NK'd tonight, we will certainly know why. Right now I would support lynching any of those three in D2 on spectacular odds.

[damo666]

VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, BobMcBob (9)

Macca573 (7): xorxes rdrivera2005 bozotheclown Durga summit_fever Hellenic Riot damo666

The overlap here is interesting. With at least 2 scum in the VT claims, possibly 3, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob are the only possibilities that would not have been bussing Macca.

Maybe the remaining scum are Jamie, TRC, brainbomb, and Bob.

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

It does make sense

[bozotheclown]

How hard is it to understand I don't have a strong read on anyone because I HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO READ YET.

I think the entire massclaim idea is bad and if he's the one behind it, I'll vote for him due to that, but I missed most of the game so far.

He has proposed mass claims as town many times and you know it, it's a silly reason to vote for him. At best it's NAI.

But this massclaim's statistics were horrible compared to a lot of other games. Unfortunately, bozo's entire meta from what I've heard is massclaim every game at this point. I can't see a good reason for town to propose massclaim this game, but bozo loves massclaims way too much at this point it may not have stopped him.

I advocate for a mass claim when I think it is in the best interest of town (and I am town), which is not every game.

[bozotheclown]

I prefer Bob to Macca, but Macca is a reasonable scum candidate among the VT claimants.

##VOTE Macca

Also very much interested to hear your thoughts here. What have I done to make you scumread me? If it was simply my opposition to a massclaim, can you provide a good reason why that warrants lynching me? The massclaim was a bad idea, and I don't feel like I was being anti-town in refusing to claim until I did.

Yes, mostly for your refusal to claim. I think the scum would prefer to avoid claiming if possible.

[bozotheclown]

I don't like the Bozo vote because at this point I feel like if he were scum he'd have done something other than continue to spout crap about the massclaim even while the votes were piling up on him

his problem as scum is he has a hard time coming up with genuine reads.

I told him to give genuine reads. Instead hes been robotic and true to his scum meta, and has been solely hiding behind the massclaim.

Also, theres that thing that quite a few people giving me the heebeejeebies are trying to dissuade us from wagoning him.

Okay, yeah, bozo can have his scumpoints back. This is another in the long list of things bozo has done wrong. He gave no actual reads all day, and his entire play was debate on the useless massclaim. At the very least bozo should start giving us actual reads.

I already suggested an entire remaining scum team, which you commented on.

[damo666]

If you are town, no matter if VT or PR you say the truth. If one town lie it screw with all the massclaim benefits.

If you are scum I will not give you hints.

Sorry this was unclear. These questions are not asking for what I should do. They are trying to find out how we understand outcome to action. i.e. Once we have everyone's claims, how do judge truth and move forwards?

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Whoops.

The 4 and 5 VT can be ignored and the 3 VT should be 120*45 not 120+45 so 5400 possible. A reduction of 53.6%.

Anyway things have moved on and the possibles greatly reduced. See next post.

[BobMcBob]

VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, BobMcBob (9)

Macca573 (7): xorxes rdrivera2005 bozotheclown Durga summit_fever Hellenic Riot damo666

The overlap here is interesting. With at least 2 scum in the VT claims, possibly 3, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob are the only possibilities that would not have been bussing Macca.

Maybe the remaining scum are Jamie, TRC, brainbomb, and Bob.

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

[BobMcBob]

Every person who criticizes me but doesn't explain the rationale behind the massclaim is just proving my point.

If it was so pro-town, you'd all have the reasoning lined up.

Someone let you all get distracted by this nonsense the entire first day.

To be fair, he's not wrong. Someone(s) did get us distracted by the massclaim all day. It wan't a particuarly productive one. But enough people had jumped on the massclaim boat that it had already set sail. Nobody I don't have scum on said it was pro-town to start with, but it happened anyway.

Why do you think D1 was not productive when we lynched a scum?

I think it was unproductive because we spent the whole day arguing about a horrible massclaim instead of scumhunting. Just because we managed to pull a luck scum lynch out of our ass in the last 10 minutes doesn't make it a productive day.

[BobMcBob]

Chaqa/Jamie claimed PR to make it 8 PR claims, then Worcej popped in at the end with his PR claim to make it 9 PR claims.

Okay, thanks. That makes at least 3 scum VT, at least one PR and TRC is a wildcard unfortunately.

At least 2 VT, because TRC could be the fourth.

Whoops, forgot to factor in the dead one into my equations. I stand corrected.

[BobMcBob]

VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, BobMcBob (9)

Macca573 (7): xorxes rdrivera2005 bozotheclown Durga summit_fever Hellenic Riot damo666

The overlap here is interesting. With at least 2 scum in the VT claims, possibly 3, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob are the only possibilities that would not have been bussing Macca.

Maybe the remaining scum are Jamie, TRC, brainbomb, and Bob.

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

It does make sense

Explain then. Why the heck is bozo focusing on the possibility that no scum bussed Macca when the odds are astronomically low?

[brainbomb]

Good evening. im having a cup of decaf and rereading. looking at how natural the macca wagon formed after chaqa claimed. Im not sure scum wouldve had time to even scramble bussers onto macca so I think we just lynch away from that wagon for a while. My tinfoil theory here is that Deep scumbin the PR pool convinced chat oartners to role swap

someone like xorxes could absolutely pull it off without a hitch

[brainbomb]

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

It does make sense

Explain then. Why the heck is bozo focusing on the possibility that no scum bussed Macca when the odds are astronomically low?

I artfully agree with bozo here
No scum couldve bussed in that window of time.

also Jamie can probably be the lynch tomorrow barring a red scan

[BobMcBob]

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

If Bozo is NK'd tonight, we will certainly know why. Right now I would support lynching any of those three in D2 on spectacular odds.

I wouldn't call these spectacular odds. I wouldn't be surprised if he's setting up for an easy mislynch. Not saying that's what it is, but the logic doesn't hold up. As I already said, the odds no scum bussed Macca out of seven voters is ridiculously low, almost insignificant. Focusing on that tiny possibility to draw scumreads is very poor form.

[bozotheclown]

People macca interacted with:

brain
xorxes
emc
Vecna
Durga
worcej
Bismark
bozo
Vecna
Donny
rivera
damo

Some of the interactions are neutral, but none gave me S-S vibes. The people they never interacted with are:

PR pool:
Chaqa
flash2015
JF1981
TheFlyingBoat

VT pool:
BobMcBob
Hellenic Riot
summit_fever

Unknown pool:
TheRealCottonmouth

I would not be surprised if the whole scumteam is in there.

HR and summit do not seem to be likely Macca bussers, though. Maybe summit, he might have thought I would still get lynched when he voted for Macca.

[BobMcBob]

Good evening. im having a cup of decaf and rereading. looking at how natural the macca wagon formed after chaqa claimed. Im not sure scum wouldve had time to even scramble bussers onto macca so I think we just lynch away from that wagon for a while. My tinfoil theory here is that Deep scumbin the PR pool convinced chat oartners to role swap

someone like xorxes could absolutely pull it off without a hitch

What makes you think that the scum were incapable of voting at the same speed as an average player? I may be missing something crucial about the standard bussing strategy, but I can't see any reason that's so hard.

[BobMcBob]

I prefer Bob to Macca, but Macca is a reasonable scum candidate among the VT claimants.

##VOTE Macca

Also very much interested to hear your thoughts here. What have I done to make you scumread me? If it was simply my opposition to a massclaim, can you provide a good reason why that warrants lynching me? The massclaim was a bad idea, and I don't feel like I was being anti-town in refusing to claim until I did.

Yes, mostly for your refusal to claim. I think the scum would prefer to avoid claiming if possible.

And in the process make themselves look bad for not claiming? The ship was already about to sail when I refused to claim, but I refused because I didn't like the massclaim. I'm not gonna restate my reasons here.

[brainbomb]

Good evening. im having a cup of decaf and rereading. looking at how natural the macca wagon formed after chaqa claimed. Im not sure scum wouldve had time to even scramble bussers onto macca so I think we just lynch away from that wagon for a while. My tinfoil theory here is that Deep scumbin the PR pool convinced chat oartners to role swap

someone like xorxes could absolutely pull it off without a hitch

What makes you think that the scum were incapable of voting at the same speed as an average player? I may be missing something crucial about the standard bussing strategy, but I can't see any reason that's so hard.

What would be the motive to lynch for cred with 20 players alive at the time. not saying it never happens but who specifically seems desperate there for cred? durga?

[brainbomb]

the only reason macca wagon happens is chaqa claiming PR and then trying to get bozo licked

[BismarckAlive]

Reasoning please? This makes absolutely no sense. This is just adding 7 and 9 to get 3. There is very likely at least one scum in the PR list, and not all the PRs voted for Macca. What are you even trying to say, and where is your logic? I can't make it out. And also what on earth did you plop that potential scumteam on the bottom for, it has no relevance to the rest of your post. Bozo has been highly inarticulate this game.

What I was saying was that of the 9 VT claimants, which we know contains at least 2 scum, 6 voted for Macca, so either scum was bussing Macca or the scum is contained in the other three, Donny, brainbomb, and Bob.

My speculation about the remaining scum team is based only partly on the possibility that no scum was bussing Macca, and partly on others things I have previously mentioned.

Just because there's a faint possibility that no scum decided to bus one of their least useful members doesn't mean you should build a case around it. Chances are through the roof at least one of the seven people on him was scum. What reason do they have to not bus him?

Fear that the massclaim favours the clean scouts (which it does). Right now, the 4 dirty scouts left are fretting about impending doom, and likely tossing up their chances at a double-kill tonight to feel better about the D1 disaster.

[brainbomb]

its hard to imagine chaqa ever being town based on how that all went down and I think scum was just flat footed