Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[worcej]

@worcej, can you tell us if there are at least three or at least four scum who have claimed VT please?

There maybe all 5 in that group as far as you know.

[worcej]

The claim is nearly complete. Youre the only one that is not about to be modkilled (I think? not sure if what the other 2 was enough to meet requirements) that has not claimed.

Whether the strategy was good before starting or not is now moot.

Most of the scum seem to be hiding in the VTs. The claim from you will really help us out here.

What is the current list?

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck, JF (7)
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca, BobMcBob (10)

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej

I believe this is the latest up-to-date list

Reading the thread, bob's claim is not really legit in any way, so grouping him there is foolish.

[Durga]

Which players are playing their first mafia game right now?

[xorxes]

@Xorxes

your opinion on Bozo please

He has certainly pushed for the massclaim, which gives him townie points in my eyes. There was one game in which a massclaim was the obvious thing to do, he didn't push for it, I did not make the effort for some reason either but I later repented not doing it, and he turned out to be scum. Not conclusive, but leaning town.

[worcej]

Why are you telling scum what they should be doing? You've been doing this a lot.

Because anyone that is town with a damn brain should've seen this through and been saying the claim is bad because of it.

Yet I don't see many people doing that. I am beginning to wonder if there are only 5 town and 15 scum.

Not sure if you think being obnoxious makes you look more towny.

I'm still not sure if you think the massclaim is bad because it "breaks the game" (makes the game too easy for town), or whether it is bad because it makes the game easier for scum. You have argued both sides of that, which is contradictory.

How is it contradictory?

It breaks the game because we start just picking people out of piles. The game is deduction and investigation. You may think that continues, but just looking at one group at a time and swapping back and forth is dumb.

It helps the scum because it highlights a perfect group for them to kill in and allows the scum to make themselves look better by focusing on specific players and not have to focus on others.

[summit_fever]

What is the current list?

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck, JF (7)
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca, BobMcBob (10)

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej

I believe this is the latest up-to-date list

Reading the thread, bob's claim is not really legit in any way, so grouping him there is foolish.

He claimed again as VT.

[worcej]

Worcej, this continued bickering isnt worth it.

Sometimes it is ok to compromise.

Like I told bob: with the current number of claims and their knowledge of who is scum/town, the scumteam can probably already deduce whether the people that havent claimed yet are PRs or VTs.

This is only sticking it to town.

Scum already have plenty of targets to kill and roleblock.

I already addressed this - there is no incentive for me to claim until all 19 others have.

[xorxes]

Buddies will be assigned randomly, meaning that your buddy could be any alignment (town/town, mafia/town, mafia/mafia)


PHASE II of MASSCLAIM
Scum are guaranteed to be in the VT POOL
Scum have to kill the PRS in the first 6 nights or they lose

therefore all buddy chats with 2 VT claimaints can technically also claim because killing in the VT pool narrows down the POE if scum double taps within

I havent fully thought this out and probably someone proposed it.

thoughts?

That would facilitate scum killing PRs two at a time if there are any PR-PR pairs...

[xorxes]

would be really funny if theres a buddy chat with 2 scum lol

Worcej said there is one.

[summit_fever]

Totally blanked on this game, woops.

I'm working until after the phase shift, so I doubt I'll get fully caught up in time considering my initial read was already pretty much skimming. Can a few people give me TL;DRs?

3 more players to complete the VT/PR massclaim. Worcej refusing until all others have claimed. Thereal is MIA. You're the third.

[Vecna]

Which players are playing their first mafia game right now?

TFB, JF, TRC, Macca

abbreviations ahoy

[worcej]

As far as I can tell, you have only played in M37, M38, and M55. M38 was terminated after D2, and worcej was the GM of M55.

Seconding this line - because I was curious where the hell Bismark got an impression of me that seemed to fake.

But people can have an impression based on reading games too. I still think bozo is being more scummy than a possible slip from Bismarck.

Why do you believe slips are real? we have a mountain of games in which allged slips are always red herrings

I believe slips when it comes to noobs, and honestly Bismarck is a noob in my eyes.

His read on me being good is just weird to hear. Perhaps that's my modesty, but I would never consider myself good, which is probably just intentional so I don't get an ego.

[xorxes]

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Thanks Damo! This is what I wanted, some math.

Another reason why I am beginning to scum damo - the math was worthless and hooked someone because it looks smart.

Damo usually tries to do 'good math' and not distraction math.

It's weird that macca was hooked by this, because his mantra has been being paranoid of people with "knowledge".

[worcej]

Buddies will be assigned randomly, meaning that your buddy could be any alignment (town/town, mafia/town, mafia/mafia)


PHASE II of MASSCLAIM
Scum are guaranteed to be in the VT POOL
Scum have to kill the PRS in the first 6 nights or they lose

therefore all buddy chats with 2 VT claimaints can technically also claim because killing in the VT pool narrows down the POE if scum double taps within

I havent fully thought this out and probably someone proposed it.

thoughts?

I'll sweeten this pot a little bit.

I think my buddy is scum based on our interactions so far.

[worcej]

Thanks Damo! This is what I wanted, some math.

Another reason why I am beginning to scum damo - the math was worthless and hooked someone because it looks smart.

Damo usually tries to do 'good math' and not distraction math.

It's weird that macca was hooked by this, because his mantra has been being paranoid of people with "knowledge".

His vote on me was also pretty meh and is just going with a majority for no real reason, which would be great for a D1 scum player to shove onto before getting his scum QT coaching.

[worcej]

would be really funny if theres a buddy chat with 2 scum lol

The odds are suggest it probably happened.

[xorxes]

@worcej, can you tell us if there are at least three or at least four scum who have claimed VT please?

There maybe all 5 in that group as far as you know.

Hence the "at least".

[bozotheclown]

In terms of horrible numbers, what really stuck out to me was bozo saying that if we had more than 8 PR claims we should get all the PRs to claim roles so that we can root out mafia. I cannot see any way that getting 1 or 2 mafia into a group of three to lynch from while simultaneously revealing exactly where to hit to nullify our best PR actions is a good thing. Not only that, he thought that (assuming one scum claimed Medic and one claimed cool guy) that a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly out of a pool of 2 PRs and one scum was a good deal. I can see no way town benefits from that. And I don't think bozo is stupid enough to mess up the numbers that badly.

I believe the mass claim benefits town if the scum choose to do that. However, we do not need to do the full mass claim immediately, certainly not D1. Maybe N1 if more than 1 scum claim PR.

This is a horrible statement

Why?

[worcej]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck, JF (7)
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca, BobMcBob (10)

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej

I believe this is the latest up-to-date list

Reading the thread, bob's claim is not really legit in any way, so grouping him there is foolish.

He claimed again as VT.

Missed it I guess.

[bozotheclown]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, JF

If our other 2 PRs would just claim, we could lynch the other 3.

Hooooold that thought. That's assuming way too much about some townspeoples' willingness to co-operate. In fact, I'd bet you there aren't even 3 scum left in this pool. We know almost for sure (assuming no stupid PRs) that there are already two scum in the VT group, and I'd wager at least one scum has already plopped themselves in the PR group, because it is in their best interests to do so. This logic doesn't hold up at all.

Why not? All 5 are playing anti-town, but 2 of them must me PRs.