Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[brainbomb]

yes

As far as I can tell, you have only played in M37, M38, and M55. M38 was terminated after D2, and worcej was the GM of M55.

Seconding this line - because I was curious where the hell Bismark got an impression of me that seemed to fake.

But people can have an impression based on reading games too. I still think bozo is being more scummy than a possible slip from Bismarck.

Why do you believe slips are real? we have a mountain of games in which allged slips are always red herrings

[damo666]

@Xorxes

your opinion on Bozo please

[brainbomb]

scum tend to proofread, and fear hitting submit. town just post every thought they have like a gushing fountain. thats why players like myself, Jamie often get into hot water for forgetting details, and perceptually putting foot in mouth

[Durga]

I'll participate more when it gets more fun.

So far I've got a few pretty strong town reads but that's about it. From what I've glanced over I don't feel great about bozo or damo. However, I feel like I scum read the latter no matter what he does in every game. He just generally comes off scummy to me so idk

##vote damo

[brainbomb]

Buddies will be assigned randomly, meaning that your buddy could be any alignment (town/town, mafia/town, mafia/mafia)


PHASE II of MASSCLAIM
Scum are guaranteed to be in the VT POOL
Scum have to kill the PRS in the first 6 nights or they lose

therefore all buddy chats with 2 VT claimaints can technically also claim because killing in the VT pool narrows down the POE if scum double taps within

I havent fully thought this out and probably someone proposed it.

thoughts?

[brainbomb]

would be really funny if theres a buddy chat with 2 scum lol

[Durga]

Buddies will be assigned randomly, meaning that your buddy could be any alignment (town/town, mafia/town, mafia/mafia)


PHASE II of MASSCLAIM
Scum are guaranteed to be in the VT POOL
Scum have to kill the PRS in the first 6 nights or they lose

therefore all buddy chats with 2 VT claimaints can technically also claim because killing in the VT pool narrows down the POE if scum double taps within

I havent fully thought this out and probably someone proposed it.

thoughts?

I don't think this is good because it can help scum narrow down PR pairings too...? Actually I'm just generally confused at what benefit this is supposed to give us. What is even going to happen if the vt/vt pairings claim?

[worcej]

If you are town, no matter if VT or PR you say the truth. If one town lie it screw with all the massclaim benefits.

If you are scum I will not give you hints.

Sorry this was unclear. These questions are not asking for what I should do. They are trying to find out how we understand outcome to action. i.e. Once we have everyone's claims, how do judge truth and move forwards?

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Great, more meaningless math that does not actually matter in any way. Reducing the possibilities of the 5 scum players down to 637 combinations doesn't matter

The math that matters is this based on 10 VT and 10 PR claims:
3 scum in 10 player VT pool - 30% odds to lynch
2 scum in 10 player PR pool - 20% odds to lynch

We most likely vote in the VT pool. Let's assume by D3, we get 1 town and we get lucky and hit 1 scum too, but 2 PRs die to NK.

2 scum in 8 player VT pool - 20% to hit
2 scum in 6 player PR pool - 33% to hit

Now town should want to move to the PR pools, but you cannot know for sure. So if you were smart scum, you would force the PRs to claim roles early, meaning scum (again, if smart) claim into the first aid dudes and the cool dudes, which scum would avoid. You're left with something like this:

2 scum in 8 player VT pool - 20% to hit
1 scum in 3 player first aid PR pool - 33% to hit
1 scum in 3 player cool dude PR pool - 33% to hit

But the issue here, is scum increased their odds of mislynching because there are multiple piles to sort out.

So what do we do on D3? Did that 94% reduction in team pairings influence this in any way?

[brainbomb]

Vecna sounds like town leader. he seems to be the dam by which all things shall pass. I dont think he can do that as scum. far more pedestrian as a maf member.

Also vec I wasnt attacking your specific scum pushes, I was looking at how you vited 3 ppl in one post and it pinged me a bit. thats all

[brainbomb]

Buddies will be assigned randomly, meaning that your buddy could be any alignment (town/town, mafia/town, mafia/mafia)


PHASE II of MASSCLAIM
Scum are guaranteed to be in the VT POOL
Scum have to kill the PRS in the first 6 nights or they lose

therefore all buddy chats with 2 VT claimaints can technically also claim because killing in the VT pool narrows down the POE if scum double taps within

I havent fully thought this out and probably someone proposed it.

thoughts?

I don't think this is good because it can help scum narrow down PR pairings too...? Actually I'm just generally confused at what benefit this is supposed to give us. What is even going to happen if the vt/vt pairings claim?

I guess my thought was that if scum kills them its actually great because it totally exposes scum even more

[worcej]

Being perfectly frank- the game as described fascinated me.... Wanted to really get into it and see what it was all about but:

1- Pages and pages of chat to work through felt like homework
2- The setup changing didnt help me as a noob (mafia/scouts etc)
3- "in the know" terminology also hurts noobs as "massclaim" and the debate over it by people who have played before just left me confused

Someone just kill me now and remove me as i wont add value as im lost and bordering on not enjoying this

Removing my vote for bozo too

Ask to be subbed out if it's too much. That's why we have that list.

But thanks for trying!

[Chaqa]

Totally blanked on this game, woops.

I'm working until after the phase shift, so I doubt I'll get fully caught up in time considering my initial read was already pretty much skimming. Can a few people give me TL;DRs?

[worcej]

I think it does. Winning while alive is better than winning when dead, which is in turn better than losing dead or alive. So, lasting quite a bit is good from that analysis, as well as from the point of view that playing for a long time is more fun, than playing for a short time. So, from that analysis, lasting quite a bit is also good. In fact, I can't really see what is bad about lasting quite a bit, either as Town or as Mafia...

Do you think you have played any games other than M37 that involved worcej lasting a while?

M37 he was superb. So maybe I embedded that in my mind and then struck me when I saw those posts.
Right now, he is one of the 5 not participating in what the 15 others think is a good plan for us clean scouts. I am keeping my vote on him until he claims, and then I will re-assess based on the splits.

The only thing I can brag about was I caught Fox trying to mislynch me. I definitely was not MVP or anything...

[Durga]

You know... I went into this game saying that I'll be friendly and nicer than I usually am and didn't want to be rude and just want to have a good time but.... Wtf they made Chaqa a mod? What has this site come to?

[worcej]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, JF

If our other 2 PRs would just claim, we could lynch the other 3.

Hooooold that thought. That's assuming way too much about some townspeoples' willingness to co-operate. In fact, I'd bet you there aren't even 3 scum left in this pool. We know almost for sure (assuming no stupid PRs) that there are already two scum in the VT group, and I'd wager at least one scum has already plopped themselves in the PR group, because it is in their best interests to do so. This logic doesn't hold up at all.

Yes it does. Unless all three are stubborn town there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of killing scum. Good odds.

This is why if any of the 3 are stubborn town they should forget their stubbornness and claim.

scum points right here.

[Donny Dude]

You know... I went into this game saying that I'll be friendly and nicer than I usually am and didn't want to be rude and just want to have a good time but.... Wtf they made Chaqa a mod? What has this site come to?

I think Jmo wanted chipotle erotica. lol

[worcej]

Sorry this was unclear. These questions are not asking for what I should do. They are trying to find out how we understand outcome to action. i.e. Once we have everyone's claims, how do judge truth and move forwards?

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Thanks Damo! This is what I wanted, some math.

Another reason why I am beginning to scum damo - the math was worthless and hooked someone because it looks smart.

Damo usually tries to do 'good math' and not distraction math.

[worcej]

You know... I went into this game saying that I'll be friendly and nicer than I usually am and didn't want to be rude and just want to have a good time but.... Wtf they made Chaqa a mod? What has this site come to?

We are now a Chipotle restaurant.

[xorxes]

I could see rivera being scum here too.

Unvoting and not doing anything with his vote for such a long time doesn't look good.

[worcej]

Massclaim Count

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck (6)
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca, BobMcBob (10)

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, JF

4 more and we make history with the first ever D1 massclaim! Only one way to find out how this strategy gets converted to a win. This should be good for us clean scouts, so I agree we should lynch 1 of the 4 non-claimants.

We had a D1 massclaim in the Parliament game, which ultimately broke the game.