Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[bozotheclown]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, JF

If our other 2 PRs would just claim, we could lynch the other 3.

[Vecna]

In terms of horrible numbers, what really stuck out to me was bozo saying that if we had more than 8 PR claims we should get all the PRs to claim roles so that we can root out mafia. I cannot see any way that getting 1 or 2 mafia into a group of three to lynch from while simultaneously revealing exactly where to hit to nullify our best PR actions is a good thing. Not only that, he thought that (assuming one scum claimed Medic and one claimed cool guy) that a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly out of a pool of 2 PRs and one scum was a good deal. I can see no way town benefits from that. And I don't think bozo is stupid enough to mess up the numbers that badly.

The part youre forgetting (and that I left out on purpose, because I did not want a massclaim, but if were bringing out the real arguments it just has to be said)

You are not suddenly without reads when the scum is hiding in that pool of three. The roles might or might not be claimed on day1, or day2, meaning that PRs can make their decisions more informed without scum knowing whom to roleblock and kill those nights. Most importantly, you can combine reads with the claims to find the scum a lot more easier.

The simple truth is: This massclaim is boring. The way it was initiated without consent was downright shitty. BUT now that its being done, put your resentment aside and just claim. Not doing so is just causing this game to deteriorate into more shit discussing this. It also gives scum major advantage.

[damo666]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, BismarckAlive
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, Macca, JF, Bismarck

VT alas, we cant all be fun

14/20 claims is now getting up there. There is no telling how many scum are in the 14 claimants, nor how many left in the 6 that have not claimed. Also, no way of knowing who in the 6 PRs are scum etc.

I am philosophically opposed to massclaims. I don't think it is in the spirit of the game - the fun is in the uncertainty, the management of information, the hunting, the conniving etc. On this, I agree with brainbomb, Vecna, Worcej and the others that have resisted this. Is there something in who resisted / who pushed this? Who does it benefit most? Is the mafia knowing the 8 PRs more or less valuable than the information we get? Some have tried to work this out, but we will only know if everybody claims.

My vote on Worcej is NOT because of his stance. I have a similar stance. I am voting for him because I think he tried coaching the newbie scum. And I can be convinced otherwise.

In the interests of the exercise proving its worth or not, and despite my abhorrence at what I am about to do, I claim PR.

I urge all Town to claim, and thus help test the thesis.

Why did you doctor the quote to appear as if you had already claimed?

[BobMcBob]

Keep in mind that there may also be buddy chats which roleswapped. we have a very imcomplete tapestry

Correct. Something my buddy suggested, but that I refused, and not just because I refuse to claim.

[Vecna]

In terms of horrible numbers, what really stuck out to me was bozo saying that if we had more than 8 PR claims we should get all the PRs to claim roles so that we can root out mafia. I cannot see any way that getting 1 or 2 mafia into a group of three to lynch from while simultaneously revealing exactly where to hit to nullify our best PR actions is a good thing. Not only that, he thought that (assuming one scum claimed Medic and one claimed cool guy) that a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly out of a pool of 2 PRs and one scum was a good deal. I can see no way town benefits from that. And I don't think bozo is stupid enough to mess up the numbers that badly.

I believe the mass claim benefits town if the scum choose to do that. However, we do not need to do the full mass claim immediately, certainly not D1. Maybe N1 if more than 1 scum claim PR.

This is a horrible statement

[BobMcBob]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, JF

If our other 2 PRs would just claim, we could lynch the other 3.

Hooooold that thought. That's assuming way too much about some townspeoples' willingness to co-operate. In fact, I'd bet you there aren't even 3 scum left in this pool. We know almost for sure (assuming no stupid PRs) that there are already two scum in the VT group, and I'd wager at least one scum has already plopped themselves in the PR group, because it is in their best interests to do so. This logic doesn't hold up at all.

[Vecna]

##vote damo
##vote xorxes
##vote bozo

lead it. you started it.

this is more what you do when you wanna play roman emperor time waster scum lord.

So you feel that Xorxes/damo/Bozo are really invested? Their arguments and way of getting people on board just feels like they dont give a shit about whether this succeeds or not.

hint: if not everyone claims day1 now that so many have done already, this plan is an epic faillure that makes town a huge underdog

[damo666]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, JF

If our other 2 PRs would just claim, we could lynch the other 3.

Hooooold that thought. That's assuming way too much about some townspeoples' willingness to co-operate. In fact, I'd bet you there aren't even 3 scum left in this pool. We know almost for sure (assuming no stupid PRs) that there are already two scum in the VT group, and I'd wager at least one scum has already plopped themselves in the PR group, because it is in their best interests to do so. This logic doesn't hold up at all.

Yes it does. Unless all three are stubborn town there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of killing scum. Good odds.

This is why if any of the 3 are stubborn town they should forget their stubbornness and claim.

[Vecna]

donny is very jittery. hes like a squirrel.

This is probably your first post I agree with. Not exactly a hot-take but its the person to be watched. He was jittery last time around as well, but it feels different here.

[BobMcBob]

In terms of horrible numbers, what really stuck out to me was bozo saying that if we had more than 8 PR claims we should get all the PRs to claim roles so that we can root out mafia. I cannot see any way that getting 1 or 2 mafia into a group of three to lynch from while simultaneously revealing exactly where to hit to nullify our best PR actions is a good thing. Not only that, he thought that (assuming one scum claimed Medic and one claimed cool guy) that a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly out of a pool of 2 PRs and one scum was a good deal. I can see no way town benefits from that. And I don't think bozo is stupid enough to mess up the numbers that badly.

The part youre forgetting (and that I left out on purpose, because I did not want a massclaim, but if were bringing out the real arguments it just has to be said)

You are not suddenly without reads when the scum is hiding in that pool of three. The roles might or might not be claimed on day1, or day2, meaning that PRs can make their decisions more informed without scum knowing whom to roleblock and kill those nights. Most importantly, you can combine reads with the claims to find the scum a lot more easier.

The simple truth is: This massclaim is boring. The way it was initiated without consent was downright shitty. BUT now that its being done, put your resentment aside and just claim. Not doing so is just causing this game to deteriorate into more shit discussing this. It also gives scum major advantage.

This... is a good point unfortunately. I'm already likely enough to be mislynched as is, and the whole of day 1 has turned into nothing but a big ol' massclaim argument. Let's go hunt some scum people.

[Vecna]

I recall donny being skittish last game,and a total suck up. I am seeing more independent thinking this game and less sheeping of other people. part of you got lynched last game donny boy, was how much of a yes man you were.

What should I think of this new meta where you appear to just be your own boss

what in the...?

[BobMcBob]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
Chaqa, TRC

Others:
worcej, Bob, JF

If our other 2 PRs would just claim, we could lynch the other 3.

Hooooold that thought. That's assuming way too much about some townspeoples' willingness to co-operate. In fact, I'd bet you there aren't even 3 scum left in this pool. We know almost for sure (assuming no stupid PRs) that there are already two scum in the VT group, and I'd wager at least one scum has already plopped themselves in the PR group, because it is in their best interests to do so. This logic doesn't hold up at all.

Yes it does. Unless all three are stubborn town there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of killing scum. Good odds.

This is why if any of the 3 are stubborn town they should forget their stubbornness and claim.

He said lynch the three, not lynch from the three. Although if we were lynching from the three that may not be a horrible idea. Except that even when we get another two PR claims it's very likely at least one of the 8 will be scum and so 1 of the three we lynch from is an actual PR, plus a stubborn town. But still not horrible.

[Vecna]

Keep in mind that there may also be buddy chats which roleswapped. we have a very imcomplete tapestry

Correct. Something my buddy suggested, but that I refused, and not just because I refuse to claim.

Yeah, buddyswapping is a great way for scum to kill you off if youre a PR and for town to think a VT just died....thus fake townclearing a scum member and losing us the game.

People suggesting that are quite likely to be scum

[Vecna]

Bob, you missed the main take-away from my post that you agreed with though.

Given the current situation; please do not destroy/diminish towns chance of winning just to make a point (no matter how appealing it is to just stick it to the man).

[TheMadMonarch]

Keep in mind that there may also be buddy chats which roleswapped. we have a very imcomplete tapestry

Correct. Something my buddy suggested, but that I refused, and not just because I refuse to claim.

Yeah, buddyswapping is a great way for scum to kill you off if youre a PR and for town to think a VT just died....thus fake townclearing a scum member and losing us the game.

People suggesting that are quite likely to be scum

Please explain.

[TheMadMonarch]

If you are town, no matter if VT or PR you say the truth. If one town lie it screw with all the massclaim benefits.

If you are scum I will not give you hints.

Sorry this was unclear. These questions are not asking for what I should do. They are trying to find out how we understand outcome to action. i.e. Once we have everyone's claims, how do judge truth and move forwards?

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Thanks Damo! This is what I wanted, some math.

[BismarckAlive]

VT alas, we cant all be fun

14/20 claims is now getting up there. There is no telling how many scum are in the 14 claimants, nor how many left in the 6 that have not claimed. Also, no way of knowing who in the 6 PRs are scum etc.

I am philosophically opposed to massclaims. I don't think it is in the spirit of the game - the fun is in the uncertainty, the management of information, the hunting, the conniving etc. On this, I agree with brainbomb, Vecna, Worcej and the others that have resisted this. Is there something in who resisted / who pushed this? Who does it benefit most? Is the mafia knowing the 8 PRs more or less valuable than the information we get? Some have tried to work this out, but we will only know if everybody claims.

My vote on Worcej is NOT because of his stance. I have a similar stance. I am voting for him because I think he tried coaching the newbie scum. And I can be convinced otherwise.

In the interests of the exercise proving its worth or not, and despite my abhorrence at what I am about to do, I claim PR.

I urge all Town to claim, and thus help test the thesis.

Why did you doctor the quote to appear as if you had already claimed?

just to make it easy to see the result at that time. I didn't know when I posted it that Macca had claimed as well. I was just trying to be helpful...

[Vecna]

Correct. Something my buddy suggested, but that I refused, and not just because I refuse to claim.

Yeah, buddyswapping is a great way for scum to kill you off if youre a PR and for town to think a VT just died....thus fake townclearing a scum member and losing us the game.

People suggesting that are quite likely to be scum

Please explain.

Its a double edged sword really and maybe I worded it too strongly there. Town could also try to suggest it since there can be a benefit. I discussed it briefly but ultimately we found its not worth the risk in case our reads were wrong.

Say for example that youre a town PR that is buddied with a scum member. If you roleswap with that scum member, it now because publicly accepted that that scum member is that PR. If you are killed, noone will ever know what happened. People might be surprised that scum killed a claimed VT during the night, but noone will know who your buddy was.

Your buddy is now a scum that can claim a role that noone will contest. Because the only person that could contest it, was killed.

Roleswapping is very dangerous.

[TheMadMonarch]

Sorry this was unclear. These questions are not asking for what I should do. They are trying to find out how we understand outcome to action. i.e. Once we have everyone's claims, how do judge truth and move forwards?

From a town person's pov there are 11,628 possible scumteams (any 5 from 19).
Let's us assume there are 10 VT claims and 10 PR (not unreasonable).

The possible scumteams are
3 VT claimants + 2 PR (165)
4 VT + 1 PR (220)
5 VT (252).

637 possible scumteams.

A reduction of > 94%.

This is why town should press for massclaim and only vote for those resisting.

Thanks Damo! This is what I wanted, some math.

This looks sarcastic but it's not, I like maths.

[TheMadMonarch]

Yeah, buddyswapping is a great way for scum to kill you off if youre a PR and for town to think a VT just died....thus fake townclearing a scum member and losing us the game.

People suggesting that are quite likely to be scum

Please explain.

Its a double edged sword really and maybe I worded it too strongly there. Town could also try to suggest it since there can be a benefit. I discussed it briefly but ultimately we found its not worth the risk in case our reads were wrong.

Say for example that youre a town PR that is buddied with a scum member. If you roleswap with that scum member, it now because publicly accepted that that scum member is that PR. If you are killed, noone will ever know what happened. People might be surprised that scum killed a claimed VT during the night, but noone will know who your buddy was.

Your buddy is now a scum that can claim a role that noone will contest. Because the only person that could contest it, was killed.

Roleswapping is very dangerous.

Ahh, so while there is still benefit of hiding a PR from scum in a PR/VT relationship, that fact you can't know that is what's happening makes it bad. I see.

Thanks for explaining.