M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[foodcoats]

I have this subconscious drone telling me it's kgray, Tom and Chaqa. Kgray is the name-level wizard, Tom is a name-level fighting-man and Chaqa played a hobbit and got capped at 4th level.

[foodcoats]

Or in another way kgray is a powerwolf, Tom is super blendy, and Chaqa is the face.

I base all this on absolutely nothing.

[foodcoats]

A lot of people scum Chaqa, why don't we lynch him?

And I feel like losing by mislynching Chaqa would be more fun and relaxed. Mislynching damo would be grim and unnerving.

##VOTE Chaqa

[Chaqa]

I don't have a ton of time right now, but I want to look back at Day 1 and Day 2 with the information available to us.

Day 1, we had a tie vote, and we now know xorx was town. If damo were also town, one of them would SURELY have been lynched. This means to me:
1. Damo is scum
2. Scum had no more votes that could move to Damo

Additionally, the kills on rivera and summit could be viewed as kills removing damo voters. I think this all paints damo as scum, with his teammates being either those on the xorxes wagon Day 1, or those who were NOT on the damo wagon Day 1.

xorxes' wagon was foodcoats, Bozo, worcej, Chaqa, damo.
Non-damo voters were Nephthys (Bunny) and EMC (Vecna)

For now, foocoats is the presumptive Vig, or at least the Vig Miller, and worcej is the other until we hear otherwise. This means the other two scum are almost guaranteed to be in the group: Bozo, Neph, EMC (I leave myself out because I know I'm town).

Working from this list of damo + 2/3(Bozo, Bunneph, EMCVecna), we bring Day 2 into the fold: Damo votes for xorxes most of the day, but also for Nephthys for part of it, when Neph seemed like the growing counterwagon to xorxes. scum!Damo's vote moved it from 3-3-3 (xorx-damo-Neph) to 4-3-2 (Neph-damo-xorx). I don't see him doing this if he is teammates with Neph normally, but it's possible since Neph was so absent Day 2, they may have decided to bus (ESPECIALLY if Neph is a less important role such as Goon and damo is JOAT).

Bozo was on the Neph wagon until it started gaining traciton, and then moved to xorxes and stayed there. This is a somewhat more suspicious vote to me.

Vecna came in voting summit, before moving to xorxes and dropping off the face of the earth with a (faux?) unvote.

Neph voted for Tom and then summit, and never joined the Damo or Xorxes wagons.

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The above all counts on the assumption mafia were not trying to cause a tie, which would break some of the analysis. But, I do not see why they would cause a tie on purpose when xorxes was a viable mislynch. So, I think the best bet is mafia is:
- Damo
- Bozo
- Vecna

BunnyNeph is the fourth option, and I think is best swapped for Vecna, though it could also be Damo-Bunny-Vecna, I suppose. It's also possible the tie was caused because scumteam is damo-Vecna-Bunny and 2/3 of them were offline at the time.

So, that's where I'm at currently. Peer review welcome on this analysis.

[Chaqa]

My overall read atm:

Town:
Food/worcej - Vigilante bros
Kgray
Tom

Scum:
Damo
2/3 of (Bunny, Vecna, Bozo)

[BunnyGo]

When Bunny subbed into scum last time he was confused and jocular, here he is very smarmy and doesn't mind being a coot and pursuing unpopular opinions like kgray is scum. Bunny is either Lord of Grime and Murk or should be considered town temporarily.

See. Foodc can read me like a dirty plate. Good for you food!

[BunnyGo]

Seriously can anyone summarize their case on chaqa?

[Chaqa]

Seriously can anyone summarize their case on chaqa?

My understanding is they scumread me because xorxes and I were tunneling on each other, because I voted for damo but didn't wind up on his wagon at the end of the day (not like I'm the only one) and because I got busy at EoD and couldn't vote to lynch damo.

[Tom Bombadil]

Seriously can anyone summarize their case on chaqa?

Mines mostly based on
1) The assumption of damo being scum
2) Wagon analysis and POE
3) My townread of bozo and kgray (I guess that's tied to the POE)

[bozotheclown]

I don't have a ton of time right now, but I want to look back at Day 1 and Day 2 with the information available to us.

Day 1, we had a tie vote, and we now know xorx was town. If damo were also town, one of them would SURELY have been lynched. This means to me:
1. Damo is scum
2. Scum had no more votes that could move to Damo

Additionally, the kills on rivera and summit could be viewed as kills removing damo voters. I think this all paints damo as scum, with his teammates being either those on the xorxes wagon Day 1, or those who were NOT on the damo wagon Day 1.

xorxes' wagon was foodcoats, Bozo, worcej, Chaqa, damo.
Non-damo voters were Nephthys (Bunny) and EMC (Vecna)

For now, foocoats is the presumptive Vig, or at least the Vig Miller, and worcej is the other until we hear otherwise. This means the other two scum are almost guaranteed to be in the group: Bozo, Neph, EMC (I leave myself out because I know I'm town).

Working from this list of damo + 2/3(Bozo, Bunneph, EMCVecna), we bring Day 2 into the fold: Damo votes for xorxes most of the day, but also for Nephthys for part of it, when Neph seemed like the growing counterwagon to xorxes. scum!Damo's vote moved it from 3-3-3 (xorx-damo-Neph) to 4-3-2 (Neph-damo-xorx). I don't see him doing this if he is teammates with Neph normally, but it's possible since Neph was so absent Day 2, they may have decided to bus (ESPECIALLY if Neph is a less important role such as Goon and damo is JOAT).

Bozo was on the Neph wagon until it started gaining traciton, and then moved to xorxes and stayed there. This is a somewhat more suspicious vote to me.

Vecna came in voting summit, before moving to xorxes and dropping off the face of the earth with a (faux?) unvote.

Neph voted for Tom and then summit, and never joined the Damo or Xorxes wagons.

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The above all counts on the assumption mafia were not trying to cause a tie, which would break some of the analysis. But, I do not see why they would cause a tie on purpose when xorxes was a viable mislynch. So, I think the best bet is mafia is:
- Damo
- Bozo
- Vecna

BunnyNeph is the fourth option, and I think is best swapped for Vecna, though it could also be Damo-Bunny-Vecna, I suppose. It's also possible the tie was caused because scumteam is damo-Vecna-Bunny and 2/3 of them were offline at the time.

So, that's where I'm at currently. Peer review welcome on this analysis.

I do not agree with the assumption that if damo is scum, no one was bussing him.

[bozotheclown]

scum team predictions:

bozo: damo, Chaqa, Tom
damo: bozo, Chaqa, BunnyGo
foodcoats: damo, BunnyGo, Chaqa
Vecna: Chaqa, Tom, BunnyGo
kgray: damo, BunnyGo, Tom
Tom: damo, Chaqa, (Vecna or kgray)
Chaqa: damo, bozo, Vecna

[Chaqa]

scum team predictions:

bozo: damo, Chaqa, Tom
damo: bozo, Chaqa, BunnyGo
foodcoats: damo, BunnyGo, Chaqa
Vecna: Chaqa, Tom, BunnyGo
kgray: damo, BunnyGo, Tom
Tom: damo, Chaqa, (Vecna or kgray)
Chaqa: damo, bozo, Vecna

More accurately it was damo, (2/3) of (Bozo, Vecna, Bunny)

[bozotheclown]

Seriously can anyone summarize their case on chaqa?

My understanding is they scumread me because xorxes and I were tunneling on each other, because I voted for damo but didn't wind up on his wagon at the end of the day (not like I'm the only one) and because I got busy at EoD and couldn't vote to lynch damo.

When damo votes xorxes (assuming he's here), we'll be at 5-5...

EMC isn't likely to come back.

Neph is catching up.

This is weird

Flash wagon on emc?

Eh, I'm fine with either of these current wagons. Why?

Chaqa saying he was too busy at D1 EOD to vote to lynch damo just does not seem true, because if he had time to make these 2 posts at 4 minutes and 2 minutes before EOD, he could easily have voted for damo instead of pointing out we were likely to tie and that he was OK with either wagon. If Chaqa had voted for damo, it would have put damo up 6-3, and the tie he was worried about would not have happened. It seems to me he was trying to get a damo voter to switch to xorxes.

[bozotheclown]

scum team predictions:

bozo: damo, Chaqa, Tom
damo: bozo, Chaqa, BunnyGo
foodcoats: damo, BunnyGo, Chaqa
Vecna: Chaqa, Tom, BunnyGo
kgray: damo, BunnyGo, Tom
Tom: damo, Chaqa, (Vecna or kgray)
Chaqa: damo, (2/3) of (Bozo, Vecna, Bunny)

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE Chaqa

[Chaqa]

Working on a work issue so have to be brief, but reads wise see my post awhile back for where I was at. Now i'm feeling like:

Town-Food, Bozo, Kgray
null-EMC, Neph, summit, rivera
Scumny-xorxes, worcej, damo, Tom

I'd like to point out the post EVERYONE is ignoring where I bring up I was busy with something for work before those posts when it was still as yet tied.

And I had some reason to think EMC or Neph would show up and vote, though they didn't in the end. Moving at EoD is tricky especially if you can't pay full attention.

[Chaqa]

We're at 6-3. Mislynch me today and we're down to 4-3 tomorrow, which is MYLO.

We need to get damo today so that tomorrow it's 5-2. If we get lucky and he's the JOAT, we have two more lynches.

[Tom Bombadil]

We are in mylo right now Chaqa. If we mislynch, scum could use double vote to guarantee a tie tomorrow assuming they don’t double vote today.

[Chaqa]

We are in mylo right now Chaqa. If we mislynch, scum could use double vote to guarantee a tie tomorrow assuming they don’t double vote today.

Ah, you're right. The double vote math is weird. So, what do you think we do, Tom?

[Tom Bombadil]

Lynch damo.

I’m going to bed now but willing to discuss further.

No point in no lynch as we have two near townclear who are the obvious NK targets.