M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[worcej]

PSA from the office of High Inquisitor foodcoats:

IF YOU ARE TOWN, YOU MUST VOTE FOR XORXES OR DAMO666 TODAY. TO DO OTHERWISE IS ANTI-TOWN.

I'll spice it up with ##vote damo

I do not believe he is town. Saving yourself in a team game, on D1 especially, is only important if you are a PR or scum. In the case of being a PR, a claim (however not great) is better than a tie so that we still gain info from the lynch.

That being said: I highly doubt he is a PR and if he is, then we know he commuted food and deserves LVP for doing it. If you are VT, you should let yourself flip to allow for information for the rest of your TEAM (keyword: TEAM - the group that wins WITH you) to analyze.

[damo666]

@damo, can you explain more this presumption that if we're both town then all scum were on one wagon? It seems to me that in that case it is far more likely they were distributed on both wagons (or even off wagons, Neph and emc). Why would all scum concentrate on one wagon when the competing wagon was also town?



You later amended this to two mislynches away from victory, but how does that work? We are currently 8-3(+1) (because of the double vote). If we mislynch, tomorrow is 6-3(+1), which is mylo. If worcej and food are telling the truth, we don't have a vig shot left. The only way we have more than one mislynch left is if Judicator manages to stop a kill (by saving someone or by commuting the killer).

Aren't you double counting the double vote?

See my response to kgray,

What about the other question?

And are you still voting for me because either way I flip you see it as an almost certain victory?

OK re double vote

'Almost certain' is probably ott however imo voting for you is the most likely path to a town victory. The lynch is quite likely to be me v you so I haven't much of a choice. And neither have you I guess.

The potential tragedy is that if you are town then day ! was TvT and whichever of us flips first the other will be next and we will have lost.

I know this will sound scummy to other townsfolk but if we are TvT is there someone we can agree to both vote for rather than each other?

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.6

xorxes(4) - Chaqa, foodcoats, Damo666, Vecna
Nephthys(3) - summit_fever, kgray, bozotheclown
damo666(3) - Tom Bombadil, Xorxes, worcej
summit_fever(1) - Nephthys

Currently XORXES is set to be lynched.

4 hours and 57 minutes remain in Day Two.

[xorxes]

I know this will sound scummy to other townsfolk but if we are TvT is there someone we can agree to both vote for rather than each other?

Currently Chaqa is my top scumread.

If we're both town however, I would say Tom-Vecna-Neph is the most likely team based on the assumption that scum would have wanted to secure a mislynch in that scenario.

[Chaqa]

My townread of emc has evaporated a bit, and Vecna finding me scummy is in my eyes scummy.

How could your townread of emc have evaporated when emc has done nothing (except be replaced) since your read of him?

Vecna managed to squander it. Just rereading emc I still find him towny, btw.

Chaqa I'm pretty sure is scum by now. He says he had no time at EOD to evaluate things, but made a post evauating exactly how things were. He was happy with both wagons but made no effort to ensure that one of the wagons was lynched.

I'm not sure how this is different from Neph, whom you townread. Just because Chaqa was voting for you?

Correct. Neph could have voted for me and secure a mislynch, but he didn't. So I think that makes him more likely town. Also, at the time he last posted the vote was 4-2-2 and there was no way to predict it would be a tie. It may be that he is scum who was satisfied with that result, and really had to leave for school and was not able to do anything about it when rivera and summit made it a tie. I'm guessing scum would make more of an effort to look like they're doing something with their vote though. I don't really townread him for much more than not voting for me at that point, when he had a good excuse to.

Chaqa could have voted for damo to break a tie but he didn't. And he explicitly mentioned the possibility of a tie in his last post, so he was well aware of the situation.

Yes, so in what world would I purposefully be the one to "cause" the tie after POINTING OUT IT WAS A THREAT?

Why am I the one at fault?

I had to deal with something at work and it takes priority over this shit. Sometimes I swear people here try to gaslight me on purprose.

[kgray]

Chaqa I'm pretty sure is scum by now. He says he had no time at EOD to evaluate things, but made a post evauating exactly how things were. He was happy with both wagons but made no effort to ensure that one of the wagons was lynched.

I'm not sure how this is different from Neph, whom you townread. Just because Chaqa was voting for you?

Correct. Neph could have voted for me and secure a mislynch, but he didn't. So I think that makes him more likely town. Also, at the time he last posted the vote was 4-2-2 and there was no way to predict it would be a tie. It may be that he is scum who was satisfied with that result, and really had to leave for school and was not able to do anything about it when rivera and summit made it a tie. I'm guessing scum would make more of an effort to look like they're doing something with their vote though. I don't really townread him for much more than not voting for me at that point, when he had a good excuse to.

Chaqa could have voted for damo to break a tie but he didn't. And he explicitly mentioned the possibility of a tie in his last post, so he was well aware of the situation.

Okay. I disagree about Neph, obviously. I don't think he's really getting a lot of pressure for his failure to vote for one of his apparent scumreads, and I felt that his reactions to the pressure he did receive was dismissive and suggested he knew he could get away with not voting for you or damo. Maybe he didn't know it would tie, if he left too early to see that, but he still managed to avoid the EOD after the only people he specifically said he wanted to see dead were you and damo, and you were both wagons. And I don't think it's irrelevant that you were the lead wagon at the time. If Neph was satisfied with the vote count when it was 4-2-2 and you were in the lead, why didn't he vote for you to make it more likely you'd be lynched? There was lot of talk about scum trying to lynch xorxes specifically D1, and by not voting Neph doesn't get heat for being a deciding vote on lynching you, if you flipped town. He could have also been trying to avoid voting for a teammate, but I am not sure if I think that you or damo would be his more likely teammate in that case.

Overall I think scum!Neph had a lot of "good" reasons not to vote for you, and him not doing so doesn't make him towny at all. And, on top of the votes, Neph has seemed scummy to me anyway.

Regarding Chaqa, I see your point but I am not convinced. I think it's interesting that you're giving Neph the benefit of the doubt about being gone for EOD, but not Chaqa about having limited access to the site, and sounds like confirmation bias to me. Also, food and bozo were also voting for you, and were obviously around after the tie. If you think bozo and food are town and Chaqa is scum for other reasons, fine. But scumreading Chaqa just because he didn't break the tie when he wasn't the only one to do so seems like you're cherry picking.

[xorxes]

Chaqa could have voted for damo to break a tie but he didn't. And he explicitly mentioned the possibility of a tie in his last post, so he was well aware of the situation.

Yes, so in what world would I purposefully be the one to "cause" the tie after POINTING OUT IT WAS A THREAT?

You didn't cause it, but you could have prevented it.

Why am I the one at fault?

You're not the only one. Bozo and food were in your position as well, but apparently they wanted me lynched so badly that they were willing to risk the tie. You said you were happy to see damo lynched but you chose to risk a tie instead.

[kgray]

Remember everyone, because of the double-vote we only have one mislynch left.

Today it's 8 vs 3(+1).

If we mislynch and nighkill is successful, tomorrow is 6 vs 3(+1). That's mylo.

The double vote only counts for one day.

If we mislynch at 6-3, the next day is 4-3(+1). They can use the double to force a tie and then the next day is 3-3, we lose.

So 6-3 is not strictly mylo because of the possibility of a save, but if there are no saves, it is mylo, isn't it?

Oh, it seemed to me like you were applying the extra vote to multiple days. I see what you're saying now, yes.

[Chaqa]

Chaqa could have voted for damo to break a tie but he didn't. And he explicitly mentioned the possibility of a tie in his last post, so he was well aware of the situation.

Yes, so in what world would I purposefully be the one to "cause" the tie after POINTING OUT IT WAS A THREAT?

You didn't cause it, but you could have prevented it.

Why am I the one at fault?

You're not the only one. Bozo and food were in your position as well, but apparently they wanted me lynched so badly that they were willing to risk the tie. You said you were happy to see damo lynched but you chose to risk a tie instead.

I don't know why you're giving summit a pass for his vote when he is the one who ACTUALLY caused the tie.

You're singling me out because you think you can get a mislynch on me and then turn around and say "huh, maybe he was right and its damo after all" and then get a mislynch on him or a bus on him to give yourself towncred, depending on if he's town or scum.

[kgray]

For those who have ignored me:

Why are we not solving the Vecna and Summit situation out when one of them is probably scum?

Are you asking us to choose between Vecna and Summit for today's lynch just because neither (alleged) shot was successful? There are other possibilities to why neither target died besides one being the tough guy. Do you really think that narrowing the lynch down to these two targets is our best bet at hitting scum?

Did someone feed you a 'let's always be negative pill' or something? You are making it blatant that you are aware of more information than you should know by arguing with the 'alleged' vig claims that have yet to be countered in any way.

I am not arguing with any vig claims. I think food has been extremely towny this game and believe him 100%. I really don't think you've been towny at all, but I believe your claim unless someone else counterclaims. I disagree with your conclusion that we need to pick between summit and Vecna.

I don't like when people try to force a choice between two options. It makes me think that person is scum who knows the two options are both town and is happy with either. Bunny did this in lylo in M54 and won the game for scum. So I'm just as opposed to the argument that the vote should be damo vs xorxes as I am that it should be summit vs Vecna. It has nothing to do with believing your claim, I don't scumread you for making the suggestion, I'm just saying I don't agree with it.

I think any of damo/xorxes/Vecna/summit provide good info. But I also don't like info lynches, and I'd rather vote for who I think is scummiest. Currently that is Neph. If everyone else wants to congregate on one of the above four, or make it 1v1 on one of those pairs, I will obviously join in so my vote matters. I'm not going to push for that, though, and I will continue to point out things that I don't think make sense.

Sorry if you think I'm just being negative. This is how I play. Poking at people's logic helps me figure out how they're thinking and if they're coming from a town or scum perspective.

[xorxes]

Regarding Chaqa, I see your point but I am not convinced. I think it's interesting that you're giving Neph the benefit of the doubt about being gone for EOD, but not Chaqa about having limited access to the site, and sounds like confirmation bias to me.

I don't think I doubted that part of Chaqa's story. Limited access or not, he was aware of the possibility of a tie, since he pointed it out. In the same post where he warned of that danger he could have eliminated it by changing his vote.

Also, food and bozo were also voting for you, and were obviously around after the tie. If you think bozo and food are town and Chaqa is scum for other reasons, fine.

food has not been counterclaimed, so I have no choice but to think he is town.

I've been townreading bozo for his D1 when I saw him put in a lot of effort, and my impression is that as scum he doesn't lead the charge so much. His D2 participation is less impressive.

But scumreading Chaqa just because he didn't break the tie when he wasn't the only one to do so seems like you're cherry picking.

Yeah, it's not just that, but that's the tangible thing I can point to. If I tell you that I feel him differently than how I felt him last game it probably won't mean anything to you. He was very skeptical of me last game, but full of doubt. This game he has no doubts.

[kgray]

Aren't you double counting the double vote?

See my response to kgray,

What about the other question?

And are you still voting for me because either way I flip you see it as an almost certain victory?

OK re double vote

'Almost certain' is probably ott however imo voting for you is the most likely path to a town victory. The lynch is quite likely to be me v you so I haven't much of a choice. And neither have you I guess.

The potential tragedy is that if you are town then day ! was TvT and whichever of us flips first the other will be next and we will have lost.

I know this will sound scummy to other townsfolk but if we are TvT is there someone we can agree to both vote for rather than each other?

OMG damo learned from M54??? Actually this is pretty townie to me.

[xorxes]

I don't know why you're giving summit a pass for his vote when he is the one who ACTUALLY caused the tie.

Because I know I'm town. If summit was scum, he could have just voted for me.

You're singling me out because you think you can get a mislynch on me and then turn around and say "huh, maybe he was right and its damo after all" and then get a mislynch on him or a bus on him to give yourself towncred, depending on if he's town or scum.

I don't think anyone other than me has expressed any interest in lynching you. Vecna said you or me have to be scum, but that's about it.

[Chaqa]

I don't know why you're giving summit a pass for his vote when he is the one who ACTUALLY caused the tie.

Because I know I'm town. If summit was scum, he could have just voted for me.

You're singling me out because you think you can get a mislynch on me and then turn around and say "huh, maybe he was right and its damo after all" and then get a mislynch on him or a bus on him to give yourself towncred, depending on if he's town or scum.

I don't think anyone other than me has expressed any interest in lynching you. Vecna said you or me have to be scum, but that's about it.

Basing your reads off of who did and didn't vote for you is super weird.

[summit_fever]

Chaqa + two of damo/nephthys/tom is my scumteam.

The last thing you said about Neph was that you think he's town. Did something in particular happen that caused you to revert back to your previous scumread of Neph?

Yeah I ended up coming around to believing you were right and I was seeing anger that wasn't there. He also allowed for the tie and I think there may be reasons for that. He hasn't contributed much during day 2 either.

[xorxes]

I don't know why you're giving summit a pass for his vote when he is the one who ACTUALLY caused the tie.

Because I know I'm town. If summit was scum, he could have just voted for me.

Basing your reads off of who did and didn't vote for you is super weird.

You don't think if he was scum he would have been delighted to lynch me?

[bozotheclown]

My townread of emc has evaporated a bit, and Vecna finding me scummy is in my eyes scummy.

How could your townread of emc have evaporated when emc has done nothing (except be replaced) since your read of him?

Vecna managed to squander it. Just rereading emc I still find him towny, btw.

Chaqa I'm pretty sure is scum by now. He says he had no time at EOD to evaluate things, but made a post evauating exactly how things were. He was happy with both wagons but made no effort to ensure that one of the wagons was lynched.

I'm not sure how this is different from Neph, whom you townread. Just because Chaqa was voting for you?

Correct. Neph could have voted for me and secure a mislynch, but he didn't. So I think that makes him more likely town. Also, at the time he last posted the vote was 4-2-2 and there was no way to predict it would be a tie. It may be that he is scum who was satisfied with that result, and really had to leave for school and was not able to do anything about it when rivera and summit made it a tie. I'm guessing scum would make more of an effort to look like they're doing something with their vote though. I don't really townread him for much more than not voting for me at that point, when he had a good excuse to.

Chaqa could have voted for damo to break a tie but he didn't. And he explicitly mentioned the possibility of a tie in his last post, so he was well aware of the situation.

You said you believed Nephthys when he said he never looked at the vote count at D1 EOD, and now you are town reading him based on the assumption that he was not telling the truth and really did know the vote count and chose not to vote for you.

[Chaqa]

Because I know I'm town. If summit was scum, he could have just voted for me.

Basing your reads off of who did and didn't vote for you is super weird.

You don't think if he was scum he would have been delighted to lynch me?

Have you not read anything I've said all game?

I think you're scum together.

[summit_fever]

Going to take a stab at analysing end of day 1 from a more simplistic viewpoint.

2:14 to go: Chaqa gets his vote in on xorxes making it 4-2 and a couple of other stragglers

1:51 to go: rdr votes tom; he doesn't seem to know where to go, really.

No voting activity till 7 minutes to go (scum is satisfied with how things are going?) when rdr moves to damo and I move to damo. Rdr thinks it's way too quiet.

The last two votes are xor and dam voting each other.

I think it's dangerous to try to read too much into a close vote where one the players didn't end up participating. For example: I didn't expect to see a tie vote. I know of emc's historical unreliability but given what I saw in M55 I assumed emc was going to vote.

Assuming Chaqa and Neph are scum: He mentioned that emc was giving him no response on discord either. Chaqa has reason to believe that emc may very well fail to vote. Given this it makes more sense for Neph to stay on worcej and not draw attention to himself.

[foodcoats]

@kgray @summit_fever @bozotheclown

If you think Nephthys is scum, what is your explanation for EOD1? Do you think:

• that damo and xorxes are both town, and scum!Neph didn't care who got lynched?
• that damo and xorxes are both scum, and Neph carefully counted, expected emc not to vote, and crossed his fingers for a tie? or
• that only one of them is scum - perhaps damo, as xorxes was the lead wagon when Neph last posted in the thread - and Neph saw a town wagon in the lead and decided to decline to change votes?