M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[Vecna]

He was instrumental in causing the tie / counterwagon on Damo (insert speculations about daychat coordination, which could work with chaqa)

He survived a shot (less likely to have been caused by a roleblock on food if Xorxes is town)

He is nowhere near the obv-town levels of last game. There seemed to be a bit early game, but the consistency is not there.

I really dont care much for thinking along the lines of teams at this point though. He is in a poe pool of 4 players for me and a decent overall candidate for scum.

[Vecna]

And im not sure if im correct on this, but in my mind chaqa as scum loves to try and attempt ties. I could swear he was responsible for a day1 tie as scum in the past.

Its pretty tricky to state if that couldve been their goal D1, but even if a tie wasnt the goal, having a counter wagon in town that is run up to create potential new mislynches going forward is very useful to scum. Most of the other people running up damo quickly there are now conf town (pending no cc, but that seems unlikely)

[Vecna]

anyways, as i said, all pretty useless speculation.

It might be the case. it might be total fiction.

I dont see the reason why u were asking me about it

[xorxes]

He was instrumental in causing the tie / counterwagon on Damo (insert speculations about daychat coordination, which could work with chaqa)

He survived a shot (less likely to have been caused by a roleblock on food if Xorxes is town)

He is nowhere near the obv-town levels of last game. There seemed to be a bit early game, but the consistency is not there.

I really dont care much for thinking along the lines of teams at this point though. He is in a poe pool of 4 players for me and a decent overall candidate for scum.

Ok, the way you said it I thought you saw some connection between him and Chaqa.

From my perspective, knowing that I'm town, I don't really see why scum would not have just lynched me if they had the chance. If they had lynched me, and Vig had shot a townie, we would be 6-3 now, but considering the double vote that would actually be mylo. So going for the tie when they could secure a mislynch seems silly. Of course scum don't always play optimally, and if food really did shoot him it does make him a strong candidate, but then if worcej shot you, you are a strong candidate as well.

[xorxes]

@Vecna, what's the tldr for why damo is town?

[kgray]

I’m a little surprised scum hit rivera over a seemingly competent and widely townread kgray. I

Maybe they were swayed by my plea for mercy when I signed up.

[kgray]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

Hmm I couldve sworn it was longer, but checking actually confirms this.

Still, it was anticipated and the posts that two people did afterwards actually shows that they knew it got tied, but they made no effort to change that

I think they could have cross-posted with damo. Bozo's comment especially makes it seem like he didn't see damo's vote, and his came after food's (which also I interpret as food thinking scum saved xorxes and got damo lynched).

[kgray]

I am not saying it's impossible, it's just rather low odds. We can figure this out quickly at any point if the other Vig actually attempts a shot and if they fail or not.

If you tried to shoot emc, then you must have thought he was scum, no? So then it'd be a 1/3 chance that he's the tough guy. And you said yourself that there was very little chance that either you or emc were commuted, or that you were roleblocked. So I really don't see why you think the odds of emc being tough guy are so low.

I put value in the 'scum usually has a lurker' analysis that I did before. I then assessed the players that fit the criteria, which were summit, Neph, and EMC. Of the group, the hardest to read was EMC, so I decided that if I had a legit bullet, I'd sort him out one way or the other.

What do you think about Neph now that he's contributed some?

[kgray]

Who do you think xorxes is giving free passes to?

IMO, these:

I don't believe damo was looking for an excuse to vote for me specifically. It may very well be that he just didn't know what to do as scum, and just came up with whatever arbitrary algorithm to show he was doing something, but I doubt it had anything to do with choosing me as a target.

I really want to scumread bozo for voting me, but I think it probably means he is town. He doesn't like to antagonize me when he is scum. Can't say the same for foodcoats, I don't really remember how he treats me when he is scum.

emc looking towny, I like what he is saying.

Tom defending me is always nice, so townie points for him as well.

In general, xorxes is typically someone who is susceptible to WIFOM (my opinion) however he does not second guess several people like he would with someone like myself, even after playing ~15-ish games with me.
[/quote]

So are you saying he's giving free passes as in free townreads, or he trusts other people's reads more than yours? And either way, do you think xorxes does this as town, scum, or both?

[kgray]

I have a strong townread on Damo, regardless of anything else based purely on play and him applying his Poe (based on logic i dont not agree with, but logic I think comes from town damo in an overwhelming % of cases)

This is what is starting to worry me about my scumread of damo. I don't think he's done anything towny at all, but this is really similar to how he played M54 as town. A lot of the things that are giving me scum!damo vibes in this game are things that town!damo did in M54, and I incorrectly scumread him almost that whole game.

[Vecna]

@Vecna, what's the tldr for why damo is town?

read my walls

[kgray]

Just iso'd Neph, and it's not looking good.

D1 Neph gave us very little in terms of content, except this post:

Yea so I'm happy to ruthlessly butcher damo/xorx

Maybe Chaqa for lols

Then Neph had the chance to break the tie between those two and decided not to vote at all, and later said "D1 getting a lynch is important." This is especially grating coming from someone who didn't even vote between either of the only two people he earlier said he'd be happy lynching. Summit already called him out for this, and Neph responds by shading Summit for going after low-hanging fruit. That just seems really disingenuous, and like Neph's deflecting.

Last game Neph was town and trolled a lot and I didn't really understand what he was doing, but every once in a while he made a really good point that I hadn't considered. In this game, the only original thought Neph really seems to have contributed is a scumread on Tom:

- Tom - Doesn't seem invested particularly, piggy-backing of other peoples pushes

Not only do I strongly disagree with that analysis, but Neph doesn't even seem to believe it, as when Tom questioned it Neph deflected by saying Tom was "defensive" and said that no one is ever going to back up his scumread of Tom anyway. So he's not pushing it, and not trying to convince anyone that he's right. If Neph is town, he should 100% be pushing his read, because Tom is almost universally townread and could be very well-hidden scum.

Overall I think Neph is a prime scum candidate based on: the frequency that scum tend to lurk; his deflections when people question him; his lack of original, towny, puzzle-solving thought; and his refusal to vote for a wagon D1 even though he'd previously stated his willingness to vote for both those wagons.

[kgray]

Oh, forgot to ##vote Nephthys

[bozotheclown]

To call me a primitive form of a giraffe after I acknowledged his work very well may have gotten in the way. I'm not positive, but yeah, I thought there was some anger there.

I think he was being sarcastic and maybe frustrated, but I didn't pick up on anger. Since you did, though - do you Neph being angry in this scenario would be alignment-indicative?

I'm a sucker for this shit. It caused me to claim in M55. I think Neph is more likely town than I did moments after the end of Night 1. His last two messages "hurr durr I forgot I was playing a game" "i'll check in in a few hours" were sketchy as hell in my mind. Hence my wanting to know. Eventually scum will nail me and I'll harden up. But yeah, I think Neph is town.

Do you know you are voting for Nephthys?

[damo666]

I think he was being sarcastic and maybe frustrated, but I didn't pick up on anger. Since you did, though - do you Neph being angry in this scenario would be alignment-indicative?

I'm a sucker for this shit. It caused me to claim in M55. I think Neph is more likely town than I did moments after the end of Night 1. His last two messages "hurr durr I forgot I was playing a game" "i'll check in in a few hours" were sketchy as hell in my mind. Hence my wanting to know. Eventually scum will nail me and I'll harden up. But yeah, I think Neph is town.

Do you know you are voting for Nephthys?

[bozotheclown]

Neph - don't like his end vote whatsoever, but he did say he was purposefully trying to antagonize me (and others, maybe?).

I would never antagonise you x

This Nephthys post was at 24:13 before D1 EOD. His previous post was at 42:44 before D1 EOD. At D1 EOD he said this:

Oh snap

Guess who forgot about this game

I’ll catch up in a few hours

When Nephthys started posting 3 hours into D2, he responded to posts from 42:41, 32:16, and 30:10 before D1 EOD. Then he posted this summary of the first 10 pages:

First 10 pages
T
- Chaqa/Kgray/Food
S
- Xorx/Damo/Tom

It seems to me that Nephthys is clearly indicating that he is reading D1 starting at least 42:41 before EOD for the first time. However, he responded to the Chaqa reads post from 31:37 before D1 EOD at 24:13 before D1 EOD, so he was reading at least some of D1 during D1.

I think this effort to look like he had not read D1 yet was to cover for his not voting for one of the wagons at EOD. If Nephthys is scum, I think this indicates at least one of xorxes and damo is also scum.

##VOTE Nephthys

[Vecna]

If one of Xorxes or Damo was scum, why would neph not want to actually participate to influence his teammate not getting killed off?

[Chaqa]

If one of Xorxes or Damo was scum, why would neph not want to actually participate to influence his teammate not getting killed off?

So both are scum? Neph/xorx/Damo?

Seems pretty tinfoil to me.

[Chaqa]

I know I brought it up before, but thinking about it now kinda... yeah. I think Neph is probably town

[xorxes]

Oh snap

Guess who forgot about this game

I’ll catch up in a few hours

I think this effort to look like he had not read D1 yet was to cover for his not voting for one of the wagons at EOD. If Nephthys is scum, I think this indicates at least one of xorxes and damo is also scum.

##VOTE Nephthys

When he posted 10 min before EOD wagons were 4-2-2 with me leading at 4 and damo and worcej at 2. it looked like I would be the lynch. If he really had to leave at that point, he could not have predicted rivera and summit would move to damo. So I don't think we can conclude any special connection with damo.

Also, if he was scum with me he would have either bussed me if he thought my lynch was inevitable, or voted for one of the competing wagons if he thought it would help to save me, so I don't think you can make much of a connection with me either.

I don't really want to defend him too hard, but it may be true he was not here for EOD. I don't know why he would not vote for me if he was scum.