M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[Vecna]

its a bit odd that worcej just jumped the shark on the assumptions he made after claiming he tried to shoot me, no?

Theres 3 other things that couldve happened yet he instantly assumes he's shooting blanks.

Would be a bit odd to jump into that pool as mafia now, but it might be the correct play.

Here are all the options:

1. My shot was fake and I am the Miller.
2. EMC was commuted.
3. I was commuted (and not told)
4. I was RB'ed (and not told)

Which is the most likely case Vecna?

I just foud it interesting at the time of subbing in that you instantly assumed P1 > (P2+P3+P4)

[kgray]

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

You had not posted since 38 minutes before EOD, your online status was hidden, you said you came online with barely enough time to vote to force the tie, but it should have been obvious to everyone else that you would tie the vote?

Yes. If Xorxes voted for me I was bound to vote for him. I had not indicated I would be absent EOD. My online status has been hidden for many games now, totally NAI.

Wait so you intentionally waited until the last minute to vote?

[xorxes]

I addressed earlier in response to xorxes that xorxes' case does make sense from his perspective as he claims to be town. I retract those parts of my analysis, but I'm holding onto my scumread of xorxes' absolutely irrational claim that scum!food would want to deny town!xorxes autotowning scum!Chaqa.

That's not my claim. Since you are claiming Vig now, I have to take the possibility that you may be town more into account, so I will try to explain. In case you're town, I will ask you to do me the courtesy of trying to understand what I'm saying rather than trying to fit everything I say into your theory that I'm scum.

This was my thought process:

Last game, I sheeped Chaqa onto dargo with my first vote because I thought that what he said about dargo was not completely unreasonable. It was a first vote basically to see what happened. We both moved somewhere else eventually, even though it would have been correct to stay there.

This game, I thought why not do the same thing? Maybe Chaqa's first instinct is correct again? Again, my vote for Neph did not have a lot of conviction, but why not?

Now last game you paid no attention to my sheeping Chaqa. You did not care that I "assumed" he was town. This game, suddenly that assumption is a huge deal. Why? Maybe because you knew that Chaqa was not town, and linking me to Chaqa in this way was a good opportunity? And again, you are making a huge deal out of my passing "agitated" or "excited" comment. It's just a possibility, it's not a case.

If you or worcej are faking your claims, I don't expect a counterclaim today unless a third Vig has already spent their shot. If one or both of your claims are fake, we should find out tomorrow. Neither one of you should be the lynch today without a third claim, and a Vig who has not shot should probably not claim yet.

Currently it's 8-3. If we mislynch today, and a supposed third Vig kills town tonight, we end up at 5-3 mylo tomorrow. So we don't have a lot of room for mistakes.

[Vecna]

oh and even P5 would have to be added to that total

Anyways, I dont really care for this line of argument.

The way you handled it and outed it is probably moderately towny. Do I put it past a scumteam to come up with this ploy? Nah. Do I find it the likelier of the two possiblities? not at all.

Ill just work with the assumption that your assumption is correct, or that you are at least one of the two potential town gunguys

[damo666]

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

Also, you are referring to 8 players out of 12 that were on the wagons at 4-4, so at least 5 town, and you did not list the primary reason why we did not move our vote as soon as the vote became tied, which is that we were voting for the player we preferred to see lynched.

I was more talking about why scum did not secure a lynch. It does apply to town as well assuming a lynch favourable to a tie (a townie strongly suspecting TvT would have a legitimate reason to not switch). Your point that a townie strongly attached to their vote would also not switch is I agree valid.

[xorxes]

So you'd rather I vote based on no reading?

Just curious

Correct. Unless you know that one of them is town, I an uneducated guess is better than a tie.

Why is it okay that Damo forced a tie to save himself, but Neph is in the wrong for not being the executioner?

That should be obvious. town!damo would know his own alignment, whereas town!Neph would not know damo's or my alignments. damo not saving himself would cause a certain mislynch from his perspective. Neph voting would not have caused a certain mislynch from his perspective.

Causing a certain mislynch is not good town play. Allowing a tie is bad town play, unless the alternative is a certain mislynch.

[Vecna]

When damo votes xorxes (assuming he's here), we'll be at 5-5...

EMC isn't likely to come back.

Neph is catching up.

This is weird

You were well aware of the possibility of a tie, however.

Very well aware of the movements of the votes for someone in the process of solving a system faillure of some importance

[xorxes]

Why would scum prefer to lynch a town over a tie in case of a TvT D1?

Because thats a pretty big assumption that is most likely flawed or at best a 50/50 that underlies this big post

That's an assumption I made, yes. I think scum would prefer to lynch me D1 over a tie. They needed four mislynches, why not get one in the bag and get rid of me at the same time?

[damo666]

You had not posted since 38 minutes before EOD, your online status was hidden, you said you came online with barely enough time to vote to force the tie, but it should have been obvious to everyone else that you would tie the vote?

Yes. If Xorxes voted for me I was bound to vote for him. I had not indicated I would be absent EOD. My online status has been hidden for many games now, totally NAI.

Wait so you intentionally waited until the last minute to vote?

I wasn't aware of the wagon status until the last minute or two. I've already said this.

[Vecna]

I think for sake of knowledge we have a imperative to resolve one of the Day 1 wagons in one way or another.

That is actually a very good point.

##VOTE xorxes

Why not resolve day1 by lynching Chaqa?

If he flips scum we can safely assume both are town

[kgray]

Day 1 blame falls on:
- Neph for not casting a relevant vote
- EMC for not casting a vote
- Summit for casting a vote that would obviously cause a potential tie
- Others for not moving
(tl;dr everyone)

I don't think it falls on xorxes or damo for voting to protect themselves.

Meh, I don't this is completely accurate. Sure a lot of people could have moved, but it really looked (to me, at least) like damo was going to be lynched. I don't think damo voting to tie and save himself is scummy. But him waiting so long (intentionally, it turns out!!) was really unhelpful and shady. If he had voted earlier, there probably would have been more movement that we could have used to sort people, and we likely would have avoided a tie.

So why did damo want a tie so badly? Just because he's scum and wanted to make sure the tie wasn't broken in favor of his lynch? Maybe xorxes is also scum? I can't think of any towny reasons for damo to intentionally cause a no-lynch.

I could be stuck in a tunnel, so this is a legitimate question for damo and others, but I think it's really scummy.

[kgray]

Yes. If Xorxes voted for me I was bound to vote for him. I had not indicated I would be absent EOD. My online status has been hidden for many games now, totally NAI.

Wait so you intentionally waited until the last minute to vote?

I wasn't aware of the wagon status until the last minute or two. I've already said this.

Fine, then disregard my last post. Still not sure I buy it though.

[Tom Bombadil]

Read xorxes post - he explains it very well.

If I am town, I will always tie the vote because it guarantees a town is not mislynched.

If I were online at EOD I would have broken the tie and voted xorxes. Even though I preferred damo, I could be wrong about xorx.

One situation has a 100% town certainty and one does not.

[xorxes]

I think for sake of knowledge we have a imperative to resolve one of the Day 1 wagons in one way or another.

That is actually a very good point.

##VOTE xorxes

Why not resolve day1 by lynching Chaqa?

If he flips scum we can safely assume both are town

Why could Chaqa not be scum with damo?

[Tom Bombadil]

I’m a little surprised scum hit rivera over a seemingly competent and widely townread kgray. I

[Chaqa]

I think for sake of knowledge we have a imperative to resolve one of the Day 1 wagons in one way or another.

That is actually a very good point.

##VOTE xorxes

Why not resolve day1 by lynching Chaqa?

If he flips scum we can safely assume both are town

When I flip town, do you owe me Chipotle? lmao

[Vecna]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

Hopefully game is solved.

@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.

2: Why would scum prefer a lynch over a tie?
3: Why is scum EMC more likely to vote than town EMC to avoid replacement/modkill?

[Chaqa]

Day 1 blame falls on:
- Neph for not casting a relevant vote
- EMC for not casting a vote
- Summit for casting a vote that would obviously cause a potential tie
- Others for not moving
(tl;dr everyone)

I don't think it falls on xorxes or damo for voting to protect themselves.

Meh, I don't this is completely accurate. Sure a lot of people could have moved, but it really looked (to me, at least) like damo was going to be lynched. I don't think damo voting to tie and save himself is scummy. But him waiting so long (intentionally, it turns out!!) was really unhelpful and shady. If he had voted earlier, there probably would have been more movement that we could have used to sort people, and we likely would have avoided a tie.

So why did damo want a tie so badly? Just because he's scum and wanted to make sure the tie wasn't broken in favor of his lynch? Maybe xorxes is also scum? I can't think of any towny reasons for damo to intentionally cause a no-lynch.

I could be stuck in a tunnel, so this is a legitimate question for damo and others, but I think it's really scummy.

This does fit my xorx-damo scumteam theory, but I find it highly unlikely we can get two scum on the chopping block on day 1 based on recent history...

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.2

xorxes(3) - Chaqa, foodcoats, Damo666
summit_fever(1) - worcej
Nephthys(1) - summit_fever
Chaqa(1) - xorxes
Tom Bombadil(1) - Nephthys
damo666(1) - Tom Bombadil

Currently XORXES is set to be lynched.

Three players have yet to vote.
Everyone has met the posting requirement.

29 Hours and 30 minutes remain in Day Two.

[xorxes]

I do not agree on the logic about emc/Vecna. If emc was scum and knew he needed to be replaced, and Jamie had confirmed to him he would be replaced and not modkilled, it was tactically sound for emc not to gimp his replacement by leaving an unjustified trail. That would be good scum play.

No, that would be a break of the rules, at least in spirit. I don't think emc would do that. I'm pretty sure emc missed the deadline by accident or because he had some emergency, but not as a tactical ploy. This says nothing about his/Vecna's alignment though.