M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[Chaqa]

OPINION POLL

Please add your name below.

I believe that worcej's claim is:

(A) Very likely true:
(B) More likely true than false:
(C) No idea:
(D) More likely false than true: xorxes
(E) Very likely false:
Chaqa

[xorxes]

damo was scum and you were town in M55 and M1010 and damo did not scum read you early in either game, so why do you think him scum reading you early is scum indicative?

Because I expect his default read of me when he is town is to townread me. I may be projecting here, but ever since that game when we were both mammals, I have felt I have this special connection with damo.

OK, but you said him scum reading you early is highly unusual, implying his default read of you when he is scum is also to town read you, which would make scum reading you early NAI.

Maybe, but I expect he is more likely to adhere to his instincts as town than as scum.

Not sure where you're going with this anyway, I did not need a reason to vote for damo other than self-preservation.

[bozotheclown]

Neph - don't like his end vote whatsoever, but he did say he was purposefully trying to antagonize me (and others, maybe?).

I would never antagonise you x

Yea so I'm happy to ruthlessly butcher damo/xorx

Maybe Chaqa for lols

These D1 posts from Nephthys are out of place, because when he started posting D2 after he said he would be catching up, he went back to here:

I have an internal pH of 9.2 and an external of 1.1

Underrated comment right here lol

I enjoyed it, my flatmates gave me some weird looks though

It seems like he forgot his 2 posts from the middle of D1 and went back to where he stopped posting at the beginning of D1.

[Chaqa]

Based on the "we should pay more attention to dead towniers' reads" theory:

Reads:
Town: food, kgray

Weak Town: Xorxes, Chaqa,

Null: Bozo, Damo, Worcej, emc, Nepthys, Summit

Scum: Tom

Too many nulls, game was too quiet.

He had vored for Bozo, Tom, and Damo. Scumread Tom.

Adding this to my spreadsheet (figuratively)

[bozotheclown]

Which brings me back to this question Nephthys did not answer yet:

Yea so I'm happy to ruthlessly butcher damo/xorx

Maybe Chaqa for lols

This was the first time you mentioned damo or xorxes, why did you say this about them at that time?

[foodcoats]

To be honest, I don't wholly understand the cases of either damo or xorxes and how they narrow down the scumteams here;

If you don't understand my case, feel free to ask. I split it into two cases, case 1 where damo is town, case 2 where damo is scum. Which one did you have more trouble following?

I actually understand them now. I wrote my intro, then did the reading and analysis, and by the end of it understood both arguments much better.

damo's statement is much more straightforward and has fewer holes,

damo's case has a couple of very gaping holes. Like assuming all scum would be on the same wagon if we were both town. How does that not make you go "huh?"?

That's not a hole. damo said, "if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon," i.e. if it was TvT scum would presumably bandwagon to make a mislynch happen rather than a tie. Seems reasonable to me, and in fact is a recurring part of your argument as well. The fact that there was not a mislynch is, for me, a strong indication that it was either SvT or SvS.

There are three major flaws I see in xorxes' reasoning:

1. xorxes makes a bizarre observation that scum!food would be agitated that town!xorxes would assume scum!Chaqa is town.

"Agitated" was probably the wrong word. "Excited" would have probably been a better choice. I made a very similar first vote last game and I don't recall you even noticing. This time you got very excited that I was apparently assuming that Chaqa was town.

You are not representing your earlier statements accurately. You are now saying that scum!foodcoats was trying to scum you on a technicality, and that there is no relationship to Chaqa; but what you specifically claimed was that Chaqa and food are scum together, and "that is why food got excited about me [xorxes] assuming Chaqa was town." My point is that if Chaqa and I were scum together, I would literally be laughing into my computer screen and be bragging in daychat about how we got you and would not be trying to lynch you when you were making incorrect assumptions about my scummates' alignment. You have designed a fake scum team that does not make sense, but you tried to jimmy in that interaction to make it seem like I am more connected to Chaqa.

Here is what you said:

Based on my previous townreads of Tom and emc/Vecna, I will for now focus on the second possibility, which gives me damo and, if I'm right about bozo being town, and worcej's claim goes unchallenged, that would leave food and Chaqa.

It might also explain why foodcoats was so agitated that I was "assuming" that Chaqa was town with my Neph vote.

2. xorxes' logic about the wagons doesn't take into account how scum actually play and makes assumptions about certain players that don't need to be made. For example, I routinely lurk exclusively via the bot when I'm scum for exactly this sort of reason, and I seriously doubt other scum players don't do that, too, so assuming that we "know" who was here at EOD is obviously stupid. Second, worcej never said he wasn't/would not be here at EOD, so far as I can tell, so xorxes is again making logical leaps to come up with a fake scum team.

We know emc was not here or else he would have voted. We don't know if Tom or worcej were here. We do know everyone else was here, because they posted. No assumptions there.

Okay, I agree that from your perspective, if you are town and damo is also town, a mislynch should've happened. This means that either you or damo (or both of you) is(/are) scum. I agree with this.

I do not agree on the logic about emc/Vecna. If emc was scum and knew he needed to be replaced, and Jamie had confirmed to him he would be replaced and not modkilled, it was tactically sound for emc not to gimp his replacement by leaving an unjustified trail. That would be good scum play.

3. Finally, xorxes' analysis includes a blindspot about kgray and summit, both of whom he null-read at EOD and should be considered for possible scum as well. In xorxes' second case, if damo is scum and xorxes is town, there's no glaring logical reason from a VCA perspective that kgray or summit could not be scum who scumread their teammate damo (which happens all the time here, bussing is generally rampant and they have daychat).

Either one of them could have easily switched to vote for me to break the tie without raising any eyebrows if they were scum, so I'm pretty confident they are town. Obviously it could be some kind of double bluff to make me townread them, but the likeliest explanation, knowing that I'm town, is that they are town.

I concede that this is also correct. If you are town and damo is scum, then kgray and summit are likely not scum.

I fully concede that your POE makes sense - which is actually great for us, because if you are scum, you have helped us define the exact shape of your team. You have described exactly why I think summit and perhaps kgray are scum with you: if you are town and they are scum, summit in particular had the documented justification to mislynch you.

I continue to maintain that your attempt to link Chaqa and I was scummy and false, and that you have attempted to negate the illogical leap you made to building the fake team. When you are lynched, it will tell us a great deal about the game.

[foodcoats]

Based on the "we should pay more attention to dead towniers' reads" theory:

Reads:
Town: food, kgray

Weak Town: Xorxes, Chaqa,

Null: Bozo, Damo, Worcej, emc, Nepthys, Summit

Scum: Tom

Too many nulls, game was too quiet.

He had vored for Bozo, Tom, and Damo. Scumread Tom.

Adding this to my spreadsheet (figuratively)

I don't want to stop your from analyzing, Chaqa, but I really think the answer is that rdr was slightly scumread and so could be safely NK'd without too much risk of him being commuted.

If there are specific arguments that rdr made that you think hold water, let's check them out and apply them to the game, but I think it's usually a secondary consideration of scum to kill based on reads, because it is so tenebrous. I think they just wanted to make sure they got a kill.

[damo666]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

[foodcoats]

Because I expect his default read of me when he is town is to townread me. I may be projecting here, but ever since that game when we were both mammals, I have felt I have this special connection with damo.

OK, but you said him scum reading you early is highly unusual, implying his default read of you when he is scum is also to town read you, which would make scum reading you early NAI.

Maybe, but I expect he is more likely to adhere to his instincts as town than as scum.

Not sure where you're going with this anyway, I did not need a reason to vote for damo other than self-preservation.

This is a very interesting catch by bozo about damo.

By Tom's logic, damo stepping out of his "reg" mode implies he is town.

Tom, what do you think of this? Do you think this would mean damo is more likely town because he is being "risky"? Or do you think it is as xorxes says, that damo is actually likely to play against type when he is scum? Or do you think it is NAI?

[foodcoats]

Do not answer this if you are town. PR fishing.

@worcej, if I am right about xorxes, this suggests they may have used an RB last night instead of double cop. You should shoot again today, in case.

If he was roleblocked, he does not get another shot. Maybe read the setup?

Oh, damn. Thanks xorxes.

I am the other Vigilante. I fired at summit and my shot failed.

[foodcoats]

OPINION POLL

Please add your name below.

I believe that worcej's claim is:

(A) Very likely true:
(B) More likely true than false: foodcoats
(C) No idea:
(D) More likely false than true: xorxes
(E) Very likely false:

Do not answer this if you are town. PR fishing.

I will take that as you believing his claim is likely true.

Any town Vig has no reason to think worcej's claim is either true or false just because they are the Vig, so this has nothing to do with PR fishing.

As it was pointed out by others, town do not need to know who the vigilantes are.

As you pointed out, I misread the fine print of the set up and thought I could try to shoot again tonight - I did not realize I was "hard out" of bullets. But I strongly suspect you put up this poll to see if you might find the Judicator.

[bozotheclown]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

You had not posted since 38 minutes before EOD, your online status was hidden, you said you came online with barely enough time to vote to force the tie, but it should have been obvious to everyone else that you would tie the vote?

[bozotheclown]

Because I expect his default read of me when he is town is to townread me. I may be projecting here, but ever since that game when we were both mammals, I have felt I have this special connection with damo.

OK, but you said him scum reading you early is highly unusual, implying his default read of you when he is scum is also to town read you, which would make scum reading you early NAI.

Maybe, but I expect he is more likely to adhere to his instincts as town than as scum.

Not sure where you're going with this anyway, I did not need a reason to vote for damo other than self-preservation.

Maybe, but it looks better if you were already suspicious of him, and you did not indicate you were suspicious of him for this reason until he was you top counter wagon.

[bozotheclown]

@worcej, if I am right about xorxes, this suggests they may have used an RB last night instead of double cop. You should shoot again today, in case.

If he was roleblocked, he does not get another shot. Maybe read the setup?

Oh, damn. Thanks xorxes.

I am the other Vigilante. I fired at summit and my shot failed.

That is interesting. If you, worcej, emc, or summit were commuted, I do not think we need to know that right now, so the Judicator can stay hidden.

[Chaqa]

@worcej, if I am right about xorxes, this suggests they may have used an RB last night instead of double cop. You should shoot again today, in case.

If he was roleblocked, he does not get another shot. Maybe read the setup?

Oh, damn. Thanks xorxes.

I am the other Vigilante. I fired at summit and my shot failed.

So, possibilities for what happened last night (for you and worc):
1. EMC is tough guy
2. Summit is tough guy
3. EMC was commuted (seems unlikely)
4. Summit was commuted
5. Food was roleblocked
6. Worcej was roleblocked

I don't think I missed anything.. but doesn't this mean we should throw EMC/Vecna and Summit into the lynch pool today?

[kgray]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

Hopefully game is solved.

@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.

Here's damo with his assumptions again. I don't think Neph not voting for one of the wagons "clears" him, and same with emc not voting at all.

And if the wagons were TvT then why would scum all be on one wagon? Do you have any actual reason to make this assumption?

[Chaqa]

I'm having a hard time gauging how powerful the Judicator is/can be, so I'm not sure if it's best interest for a claim or if that plays into mafia's hands. Maybe we push the issue down the line

[foodcoats]

If he was roleblocked, he does not get another shot. Maybe read the setup?

Oh, damn. Thanks xorxes.

I am the other Vigilante. I fired at summit and my shot failed.

So, possibilities for what happened last night (for you and worc):
1. EMC is tough guy
2. Summit is tough guy
3. EMC was commuted (seems unlikely)
4. Summit was commuted
5. Food was roleblocked
6. Worcej was roleblocked

I don't think I missed anything.. but doesn't this mean we should throw EMC/Vecna and Summit into the lynch pool today?

Or worcej or I was commuted.

I think you were correct earlier that we need to lynch xorxes or damo to resolve yesterday. It was obviously NOT TvT, so we guarantee a scum catch I think, even if we screw it up and lynch the wrong one (who I strongly think would be damo, who looks more and more townie to me).

[foodcoats]

I'm having a hard time gauging how powerful the Judicator is/can be, so I'm not sure if it's best interest for a claim or if that plays into mafia's hands. Maybe we push the issue down the line

Judicator should not claim.

[Tom Bombadil]

OK, but you said him scum reading you early is highly unusual, implying his default read of you when he is scum is also to town read you, which would make scum reading you early NAI.

Maybe, but I expect he is more likely to adhere to his instincts as town than as scum.

Not sure where you're going with this anyway, I did not need a reason to vote for damo other than self-preservation.

This is a very interesting catch by bozo about damo.

By Tom's logic, damo stepping out of his "reg" mode implies he is town.

Tom, what do you think of this? Do you think this would mean damo is more likely town because he is being "risky"? Or do you think it is as xorxes says, that damo is actually likely to play against type when he is scum? Or do you think it is NAI?

I’m not sure where I ever implied “stepping out of “reg” mode” implies someone is town”. I don’t understand how you came to that conclusion.

I don’t really know what damos normal play is. I have not taken meta into account in my read of him at all