M55: The Last Party - Game Thread

[Vecna]

Scum seem really scared of Squigs shooting them. Lends credence to him being town...

Maybe it’s Bunny-Vecna and someone deep cover like summit or food?

Dude there is zero chance of squigs shooting me here, and if my effort fails I have no problem placing a vote on him.

Im still hopeful we'll do the smart play here. but thanks for your effort of spindoctoring what im trying to accomplish

https://youtu.be/wsdy_rct6uo

nice

[bozotheclown]

So from my reading on mafiascum lynching town vengeful claimants
is standard. Vecna, Is there anything in particular about this situation that makes you want to deviate?

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Policy_Lynch
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ful_(role)

Whats the percent you think I'm town/scum versus the percent you think Tem is town/scum?

For Squigs I lean town. let's call it 55/45. If I was given even money I'd bet that you're town.

For Temasek the only idea gnawing at me is that I believe town!Sarah was more likely to leave this game compared to scum!Sarah. I do believe Temasek is lying, and not being here right now isn't helping that. 70/30 scum.

That should be enough uncertainty on Squigs to lynch him with his Vengeful claim.

[foodcoats]

If Squigs does have that limitation we need everyone on him to lynch him... the people we most want on him (Vecna, Tem, Bunny, Damo), only one is on Squigs...

That's interesting...

[Squigs44]

The way summit is waffling between myself and Tem means he is very unsure of what to do right now. Can't shake the feeling that he wants the towncred of doing the "optimal play" while trying to find a way to reason out that saving Tem is "optimal"

[Chaqa]

Just based on PoE, neither of them is a bad lynch.

If both are town we’re way behind the 8 ball anyway

[xorxes]

So from my reading on mafiascum lynching town vengeful claimants
is standard. Vecna, Is there anything in particular about this situation that makes you want to deviate?

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Policy_Lynch
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ful_(role)

Whats the percent you think I'm town/scum versus the percent you think Tem is town/scum?

For Squigs I lean town. let's call it 55/45. If I was given even money I'd bet that you're town.

For Temasek the only idea gnawing at me is that I believe town!Sarah was more likely to leave this game compared to scum!Sarah. I do believe Temasek is lying, and not being here right now isn't helping that. 70/30 scum.

He is not here because of timezones, I think he is from Indonesia or Malaysia, don't remember exactly. He said he would set his alarm so he could be here for EOD, but he has said that in other games and ended up missing the deadline anyway, so we can't really count on that.

[Vecna]

The way summit is waffling between myself and Tem means he is very unsure of what to do right now. Can't shake the feeling that he wants the towncred of doing the "optimal play" while trying to find a way to reason out that saving Tem is "optimal"

I know where youre coming from, but you should look at the way he revealed his guilty on RHK when he did it.

That stuff felt pretty genuine. You could almost see his thought process, trying to decide between staying hidden or outing and getting a scum lynch.

[Squigs44]

So from my reading on mafiascum lynching town vengeful claimants
is standard. Vecna, Is there anything in particular about this situation that makes you want to deviate?

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Policy_Lynch
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ful_(role)

Whats the percent you think I'm town/scum versus the percent you think Tem is town/scum?

For Squigs I lean town. let's call it 55/45. If I was given even money I'd bet that you're town.

For Temasek the only idea gnawing at me is that I believe town!Sarah was more likely to leave this game compared to scum!Sarah. I do believe Temasek is lying, and not being here right now isn't helping that. 70/30 scum.

okay so lynching me gives a 16.5% of lynching 2 town, and a 38.5% chance of lynching 1 scum 1 town, with a 45% chance of lynching 1 scum, no town.

Lynching Tem gives a 70% chance of lynching 1 scum, no town, and a 30% chance of lynching 1 town, 0 scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

Well Chaqa, as it stands, you may get your "no lynch" wish anyway.

[summit_fever]

He is not here because of timezones, I think he is from Indonesia or Malaysia, don't remember exactly. He said he would set his alarm so he could be here for EOD, but he has said that in other games and ended up missing the deadline anyway, so we can't really count on that.

Ahh yes that is true.

I don't think Squigs is lying. I think Temasek is lying. I'm not moving my vote.

[foodcoats]

Bleh. Squigs kinda selling me here. Guess I just don't want to refigure my POE because nothing else makes sense. Or Squigs just good scumming.

I trust the foodcoats of yesterday. I trust yesterday's foodcoats.

[foodcoats]

Fuck wagons are tied.

[Chaqa]

Well Chaqa, as it stands, you may get your "no lynch" wish anyway.

[summit_fever]

Whats the percent you think I'm town/scum versus the percent you think Tem is town/scum?

For Squigs I lean town. let's call it 55/45. If I was given even money I'd bet that you're town.

For Temasek the only idea gnawing at me is that I believe town!Sarah was more likely to leave this game compared to scum!Sarah. I do believe Temasek is lying, and not being here right now isn't helping that. 70/30 scum.

okay so lynching me gives a 16.5% of lynching 2 town, and a 38.5% chance of lynching 1 scum 1 town, with a 45% chance of lynching 1 scum, no town.

Lynching Tem gives a 70% chance of lynching 1 scum, no town, and a 30% chance of lynching 1 town, 0 scum.

I'd be careful with this analysis.. IE: I'd lay 2 to 1 that Temasek is scum if we're betting beers. Betting mortgages? Hell no. I have no confidence in my reads.

[Vecna]

Noone is talking about letting squigs live to endgame food.

Anytime were at any risk of getting close to mylo/lylo he is the default lynch, which will still give us the upside of potentially dragging scum along with him.

Besides, itll be interesting wagonomics going forward as well.

For now, the real question should be whether you really think Tem is town

[Chaqa]

I’m totally fine with it being tied since I still believe no-lynch is best lol

[Squigs44]

Wait, foodcoats says I'm convincing him but he's not moving his vote regardless? Not only are you insulting me by thinking I'd flail, but now you're just admitting that there's nothing I can do to change your vote. Gg with that attitude.

[Chaqa]

Noone is talking about letting squigs live to endgame food.

Anytime were at any risk of getting close to mylo/lylo he is the default lynch, which will still give us the upside of potentially dragging scum along with him.

Besides, itll be interesting wagonomics going forward as well.

For now, the real question should be whether you really think Tem is town

Eh, I had a solid town read on Sarah, but I don’t see lie detector as a role that would be used... idk

[Squigs44]

For Squigs I lean town. let's call it 55/45. If I was given even money I'd bet that you're town.

For Temasek the only idea gnawing at me is that I believe town!Sarah was more likely to leave this game compared to scum!Sarah. I do believe Temasek is lying, and not being here right now isn't helping that. 70/30 scum.

okay so lynching me gives a 16.5% of lynching 2 town, and a 38.5% chance of lynching 1 scum 1 town, with a 45% chance of lynching 1 scum, no town.

Lynching Tem gives a 70% chance of lynching 1 scum, no town, and a 30% chance of lynching 1 town, 0 scum.

I'd be careful with this analysis.. IE: I'd lay 2 to 1 that Temasek is scum if we're betting beers. Betting mortgages? Hell no. I have no confidence in my reads.

Lol

[Vecna]

The interesting thing is:

Everyone voting on Tem feels like theyre somewhat willing to change back.

People on Squigs are just stuck for the most part

Im really wondering if mafia knows they lose if tem flips and they have to take a stand.