M55: The Last Party - Game Thread

[Squigs44]

Almost anyone from any group could be an Inquisitor, but leaving that aside, roughly:

TOWNY:
brainbomb
Chaqa
Jamiet99uk
Nephthys
summit_fever

QUESTIONABLE:
bozotheclown
BunnyGo
damo666
foodcoats

SCUMMY:
Squigs44
Temasek22
Vecna

Didn't we townclear Vecna based on the scum bus driver? Unless brain is lying, but he would only lie if he is scum and its highly doubtful brain and vecna are scum together.

[foodcoats]

Chances brainbomb dies tonight? Over/under... 5%? What are the bets?

How do you do an over/under on a percentage?!

Huh?

Chances of less than 5% are "under 5%". Examples include 4%, 3%, 2% and 1.75%.

Anything over 5% is over.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over–under

[Squigs44]

Chances brainbomb dies tonight? Over/under... 5%? What are the bets?

How do you do an over/under on a percentage?!

Huh?

Chances of less than 5% are "under 5%". Examples include 4%, 3%, 2% and 1.75%.

Anything over 5% is over.

The point of an over/under is that the result will either be over or under the number. For example, you could put an over under on the Dallas Cowboys winning by 9.5 points. If the cowboys win by 10 or more points it is over, otherwise its under.
A percentage doesn't make sense here because the outcome is that he either dies or does not. He's not going to 20% die.

[foodcoats]

How do you do an over/under on a percentage?!

Huh?

Chances of less than 5% are "under 5%". Examples include 4%, 3%, 2% and 1.75%.

Anything over 5% is over.

The point of an over/under is that the result will either be over or under the number. For example, you could put an over under on the Dallas Cowboys winning by 9.5 points. If the cowboys win by 10 or more points it is over, otherwise its under.
A percentage doesn't make sense here because the outcome is that he either dies or does not. He's not going to 20% die.

… dammit.

[bozotheclown]

I was just saying I did not think we could tell who killed who based on the flavor.

Do you think there's any reason to suspect that kgray was killed by Vecna?

It seems so in that case. We may find out soon if exploding watches is the only way mafia can NK, but emc and flash​ were killed by a single watch explosion. Do you think that means something, or do you think it is just because volleyballs can't wear watches?

[Squigs44]

Chaqa, let's schedule "choking and strangulation for mutual titillation" as tomorrow night's seminar in our sex cult QT.

Chaqa, please never add me to your cult

[foodcoats]

I was just saying I did not think we could tell who killed who based on the flavor.

Do you think there's any reason to suspect that kgray was killed by Vecna?

It seems so in that case. We may find out soon if exploding watches is the only way mafia can NK, but emc and flash​ were killed by a single watch explosion. Do you think that means something, or do you think it is just because volleyballs can't wear watches?

I think the thing to notice is that the Mastermind was the source of the explosion, not the watch itself. Buuuuut yeah it could be TOO much flavour.

[bozotheclown]

I think Vecna's theory is looking better with brainbomb's conflicting accounts of who he saved N1. I could see brainbomb and DemonRHK trying to pull off the double doctor claim as mafia.

[xorxes]

Didn't we townclear Vecna based on the scum bus driver? Unless brain is lying, but he would only lie if he is scum and its highly doubtful brain and vecna are scum together.

Can you explain the reasoning to think Vecna is clear?

brain claims his target was moved from summit to Vecna. It could have been by a bus driver or a redirector. Assuming brain's story is true:

If Vecna is town, the intent was probably to kill brain or anyone else trying to save Vecna.

If Vecna is scum, they knew that would not happen, so the intent could have been to make Vecna look good.

But all in all, I think you're right that's in favor of Vecna. He is still a bit scummy though. Tonight he's been good, but before that not so much.

So not clear, and I doubt we will get any actual clears in this game.

[Nephthys]

@Neph, are you told when you jail someone if someone else tried to kill them that night?

No

[Chaqa]

Chaqa, let's schedule "choking and strangulation for mutual titillation" as tomorrow night's seminar in our sex cult QT.

I happen to know a bit about this subject.

[Chaqa]

Chaqa, let's schedule "choking and strangulation for mutual titillation" as tomorrow night's seminar in our sex cult QT.

Chaqa, please never add me to your cult

Wasn't planning on it scumboi

[Jamiet99uk]

Chaqa, let's schedule "choking and strangulation for mutual titillation" as tomorrow night's seminar in our sex cult QT.

I happen to know a bit about this subject.

In that case it's your job to design the Powerpoint slides.

[Chaqa]

Updated Reads List: (some of these have a bit of copy/paste from my last list)

Core Town:
brainbomb: I was very much reading him as scum earlier in the game, but after all the interactions with him, as well as the realization that he didn't know foodcoats was in my QT, I'm pretty sure he is the true and blue Town Doctor. RHK's scum-flip adds extra weight to this. There is some possibility he is a 3P conversion, and some possibility he is scum that bussed RHK (with summit?), but for now I think it's safe to assume he's town.

Nephthys: Neph is my strongest townread right now. I explained my reasoning for why Neph has to be town awhile back, but it boils down to a logical conclusion. We know he jailed xorx on Night 2. If Neph was scum, jailing xorxes doesn't make sense. scum!Neph wouldn't jail scum!xorxes since they're teammates and it's very very unlikely a town vig would ever shoot xorxes on night 2. scum!Neph wouldn't jail town!xorxes since if they were opposite alignments it's much more likely they would want to kill xorxes and jail someone like brain or Jamie who had made a PR claim.

summit_fever: his guilty scan on RHK is pretty solid evidence that he is town. While there's a small possibility they decided to bus him, this only makes sense in the world where brain is also scum, I think. I'm pretty sure we don't live in that world, so summit has to be town.

Lean Town:

foodcoats: I had a much stronger read on him as town before. Tonight's events should give a clearer picture of whether my Neighborhood Watch has a mole. Foodcoats has potential to be town lightning-rod, town LR turned Inquisitor, scum LR, scum LR turned Inquisitor, scum JOAT, or scum JOAT turned Inquisitor. If he has become an Inquisitor, it's pretty irrelevant at this time, so he's basically either a LR or a scum JOAT who had a 1x lightning rod. Given that we can be somewhat sure Neph is town, the likelihood food is scum goes up, but it's probably 60/40 town for me right now. One thing that does make me more town-read him (and not 3P- or scum-read him) is how inactive he has been in the Watch QT. I feel like if he had other QTs to check, he would chime in more, but it could be NAI. The voting link between him and RHK is also reason for suspicion. If I'm wrong about any of my townreads, this is the one.

Jamiet: Jamie's role makes a lot of sense as a town counter to the 3P. That's about all I want to say on exactly what he is, but I do believe he's a town protective. It's possible he's scum fakeclaiming a role we have little way to disprove, but there's some mitigating factors that I think will make it come to light on its own eventually.

xorxes: I don't want to our xorxes' exact role. Jamie and foodcoats can also relay what he is if I die, so there's some coverage, but after talking with him and thinking through the likely game balance, I believe he is town. I place him in lean town instead of core town because there's some usefulness of his role as scum, but it makes more sense as town. All I can say for certain is that he know rivera was not town because of his role, not because of a potential night-kill failure on rivera. There is still possibility that xorx is mafia and they targeted rivera Night 2 and it failed, but xorxes has additional information/knowledge that suggests he is town.

Vecna: Despite the fact I think he's been wrong about nearly everything this game, his role makes sense and if we assume flavor is relevant and accurate, I don't see how he can be non-town with the PGO/Veteran role. His crusade on Brainbomb will either go down as a brilliant catch or a silly waste of time. I'm still hoping to get some Chipotle out of the deal.

The Scum Candidates:
Bozo: His lack of paying attention and general detachedness from the mechanics-analysis still strike me as out-of-character. Additionally, he has not yet claimed a role, which will be a common thread with my scum candidates. That said, out of all of them, he has improved the most and is probably near the bottom of my priority list as far as they are concerned.

BunnyGo (Dargo): I don't have a super-strong read on him, but Dargo was null to scummy during his brief time in the game. Bunny, however, has seemed keen on trying to catch up and understand what's happening, even if it's tedious. Dargo's voting record indicates more scum-lean. In M47, as scum, he would drop votes and leave them be while being relatively inactive. This game he was mirroring that meta almost to a T. Food for thought. Still no claim from him, either.

damo666: I often forget he is even in this game. EMC was suspicious of him. Interestingly, he didn't have a single vote cast against him Day 1, 2, or 4. On Day 1 he cast a vote for Dargo (Bunny) before joining the runaway Donny wagon. On Day 2 he came out against food before bouncing between EMC and Vecna. If damo flips scum, foodcoats is more likely as scum, as is Vecna, but I'm a bit torn. At EoD, he voted against EMC instead of Bismarck. I'm not sure whether this is more likely for town or scum to do. Further analysis is needed, but the bottom line here is damo has been lurking, skirting, and coasting. As above - Still no claim from him, either.

Squigs: Fox was pretty null before being replaced, and Squigs has doubled down. There's some talk about him disliking mechanics discussions when previously he would love them. I don't know whether that's true or not. What I do know is Squigs has that AI he made to analyze scummi-ness, but I haven't heard mention of it yet this game. Additionally, I didn't like how he was sheeping me earlier. Fox's voting record isn't super informative, but if Squigs or Jamie flip scum, there's a higher likelihood the other is scum based on those weird votes early on Day 1. Additionally - EMC was supposed to be visiting him on the night he died.. This could be relevant if Squigs is a PGO scum-equivalent. As above - Still no claim from him, either.

Temasek (Sarah): I had a pretty mild townread on Sarah. The link was mainly toward RDR. I don't understand where he was going with his whole "based on my role, rivera isn't scum" thing. Sarah had votes against Bozo and Dargo, and then Bozo again Day 2. If she was scum, Bozo/DargoBunny seem like possible teammates, especially if there is a mafia day chat. As above - Still no claim from him, either.

Lynch priority based on reads (in my opinion):
Damo
Squigs
Bunny
Bozo
Temasek
------------------
Food
Jamiet
xorxes
Vecna
------------------
summit
brain
Neph

[summit_fever]

Scanned Damo.

[worcej]

Night has ended. Please Hold.

[worcej]

Night 4 Flavor
“…and for some reason, they continue to debate who the supposed ‘Mastermind’ is.” the Lead Scientist continues reporting. “Apparently they saw a note on the dead Hunter and believe that one of them is this Mastermind and they are turning on each other accordingly. However, some of them are paying more attention to their surroundings then others, indicating we have a wide range of intelligence and perception amongst the remaining subjects. One of them even knows about the ridiculous QED you put at the end of a proof…”

The Mastermind kicks his feet up and leans back in the chair. “Perfect – Excellent report. Best report ever. It’s a fantastic job, really, almost perfect. Let them continue to think that and bicker. It just continues to show the paranoia inherently present in humans… When it comes down to it, people will make their own truths to survive trauma inducing situations. This research will make us even more money on the side and we’ll finally show what Survivor should’ve been! We just need to hope CBS decides to pay for the rights... Anything else?”

The Lead Scientist looks down at his notes. “Oh yes, one of the contestants died due to exhaustion from running around and screaming a lot. It’s bizarre and will require more study… does fear lead to death in such exhaustive levels? Can we make a fear-like weapon and sell it to the USA as the next wave of guns?”

The Mastermind shrugs and lights a cigarette. “I don’t really care, as long as it makes us money!”

brainbomb HAS DIED! HE WAS THE TOWN DOCTOR!

You are the Town Doctor! You are the best at patching anyone up, no matter how serious an injury is. During the night, you may ##save a player. If you do, they will live through any killing actions performed on that player. Your ability is considered a Protective-type ability.
You win when the Town faction is the last faction left standing.

Day 5 has begun. You may now post.

[Nephthys]

##vote damo

[summit_fever]

##vote damo

damo scanned innocent

[Chaqa]

So, I have a feeling we should discount any reading into flavor of the deaths now. Rivera probably killed EMC or flash.

Brain's death actually clears up a lot. Hmm.