M55: The Last Party - Game Thread

[Foxcastle]

And why arent' you voting for EMC if you want to lynch him?

I already said it was to see what happens.

Is EMC your absolute top scum read?

I scumread EMC, Neph, Bozo, and I expect a couple of the lurkers are scum too.

I think of my scumreads, EMC is the most informative.

I was going to get sarcastic about "only vote your top scum read" as a way to illustrate what I see as a logical fallacy of pursuing scum candidates serially. I'll just say it this way: we have to explore multiple paths simultaneously and do things that create information. Neph is not really a top scum read--I don't have much in the way to strong scumreads right now--but I think voting him right now maybe leads to interesting information.

[TheMarche]

Did EMC explain why he outted being a tracker now, as opposed to staying hidden and getting valuable results?

Chaqa outed him, because Chaqa "recruited" him into a private QT that they share, and which foodcoats apparently now shares as well.

I don't think at all that Chaqa is a 3p who recruited emc in his team. Why would he have outed him at the end of N1 if so? I'm sure of few things, and one of them is that they're probably not in the same faction unless they're both town.

[e.m.c^42]

Did EMC explain why he outted being a tracker now, as opposed to staying hidden and getting valuable results?

Chaqa outed him, because Chaqa "recruited" him into a private QT that they share, and which foodcoats apparently now shares as well.

Ok, so if you think that foodc is now part of it for some reason, what do you think it means?

[kgray]

Since as a new player, I found it rather difficult to link actions/scumreads, and it was a lot easier to just look at other people's reads and play pattern recognition.

Granted it was a bit different in my case, but it feels similar enough.

Why was it different in your case?

But fair enough, I agree about pattern recognition being easy/natural to focus on. I certainly did that my first game, and probably still do too much. But, I think this is something that's pretty easy to notice as scum, just as much as town, so I think it's NAI from Bismarck.

You really have it in for me, kgray. I understand it if it's just because I am seen as "lurking". I certainly am not. And there's a lot of people here that simply make 1 liners in response to other nonsense and fill the pages of the thread. English is my second language, so reading the thread is slow, and this game has generated a whole lot of thread more than my other experience with the likes of Jamiet, Bomb, Fox, Flash, Damo, Vecna, and so on. I pick my targets carefully - I ask them questions after analysing their contributions. I try to work out scum. I don't assume that lurking is scummy - much the same as I don't assume that verbosity and page-filling with Walls means you are Town. And I can confirm that I have a Town role on this island. Sure, a minor role, but a Town role nonetheless.

I don't really care if someone posts walls or short responses, or if they have 20 or 200 posts in a phase, as long as the content of their posts indicates to me that they're trying to figure things out. I'm not getting that from you.

Can you point out anywhere where you ask someone a question in the way you described above? Some of your questions have obvious answers, like "who would benefit more from Donny's alignment not being revealed?" And some of them have answers you don't seem to care about. For example:

So, who defended Donny the strongest and when? That is where we may find Donny's accomplices...

I think this is a good, towny question. But you didn't follow up with any evidence that you'd tried to answer it yourself. That makes me think you're just trying to look like you're hunting. Did you actually go back to see who was defending Donny? Did you get any reads from looking into this?

[e.m.c^42]

Bismarck comes off as trying to make himself come off better than he actually is - a bit of a contrast to those of us who try to come off as stupider lol

[e.m.c^42]

But I'm not sure if that's alignment indicative

[e.m.c^42]

He could be just cocky from some experience and the general idea that comes from sending press successfully, not realising a difference.

[xorxes]

Did EMC explain why he outted being a tracker now, as opposed to staying hidden and getting valuable results?

Chaqa outed him, because Chaqa "recruited" him into a private QT that they share, and which foodcoats apparently now shares as well.

I don't think at all that Chaqa is a 3p who recruited emc in his team. Why would he have outed him at the end of N1 if so? I'm sure of few things, and one of them is that they're probably not in the same faction unless they're both town.

I don't know what to think about that anymore. But Chaqa did use the word "recruit" to describe what he did to emc. And now foodcoats appears to be in on the secret, whatever the secret is.

[kgray]

It could also be that emc's role isn't meant to be it's own "faction" since his alignment (if he's being honest) is decided after the game starts but becomes one of mafia, town or 3p.

I disagree, kgray. This is how I am thinking about this important discussion:
21 people so, what would be REASONABLE scum number? 5?
Then we have 3p which is another faction we have to get rid of. So let's assume total people Town have to get rid of is 6.
So, 15 Town, 1 3p, and 5 mafia.
Now, assume Donny is Tracker as he claimed (Town). He dies, EMC takes over that. I would posit that EMC was originally Town, since it would be unfair to the setup if mafia EMC could then become Town if Donny was Town. Not so unfair if scum Donny dies, since mafia would stay the same.
So if my numbers are correct, we now have 20 people split up as 14 Town, 5 mafia and a 3p.
This is important, because we have to have some notion of what numbers of enemies we as Town are dealing with.

I really don't know what would be a reasonable number of mafia/3p. This is my third game of forum mafia, and my first with a closed setup, a 3rd party, and tons of roles. I cannot comment on what would be "fair" to any of the factions, I was simply stating what I thought was possible based on the wording of the information we do have.

Are you saying you think that emc is lying about originally being 3rd party, and you think emc started out as a town universal backup? If so, walk me through why emc does this.

[xorxes]

Did EMC explain why he outted being a tracker now, as opposed to staying hidden and getting valuable results?

Chaqa outed him, because Chaqa "recruited" him into a private QT that they share, and which foodcoats apparently now shares as well.

Ok, so if you think that foodc is now part of it for some reason, what do you think it means?

I wish you told me. My guess would be wild speculation.

[foodcoats]

And based on what I've seen emc is town two thirds of the time or better.

This should not be part of your reasoning, no more than assuming a coin that flips heads twice is going to flip heads a third time.

Why can't I use likelihoods?

[foodcoats]

What is the relevance of this appeal to the gambler's fallacy?

Lol it's not a gamblers fallacy

That would be like if I assumed since I've been scum a lot I should always roll town for a while

Assigning odds helps decision making

The gambler's fallacy is that previous random actions have any indication of future results. Whether it should happen more or less is irrelevant. EMC being town 2/3 of the time is because most games have about 3 town players for every scum player. Everyone is going to have a town rate of play that reflects that.

Lol no it's just my assessment.

[foodcoats]

Im assigning likelihoods based on information to make good decisions

[foodcoats]

Lol it's not a gamblers fallacy

That would be like if I assumed since I've been scum a lot I should always roll town for a while

Assigning odds helps decision making

The gambler's fallacy is that previous random actions have any indication of future results. Whether it should happen more or less is irrelevant. EMC being town 2/3 of the time is because most games have about 3 town players for every scum player. Everyone is going to have a town rate of play that reflects that.

So anyone is town 2/3 of the time.

The private information that you now have does not increase emc's chances of being town at all?

The slot was 51 49 under donny to me and 33 66 s/t under emc but probably even better

The PURE odds are like 75% probably but im giving my assessment

[e.m.c^42]

Lmao I realise you're defending me but that's kinda sus, my man

[e.m.c^42]

Just the way it's portrayed

[brainbomb]

emc who do you wanna lynch

[Foxcastle]

Im assigning likelihoods based on information to make good decisions

Can you clarify this? You seem to be saying that EMC is town about 2/3 of the time, and that that fact somehow matters to your calculation here. Is that correct?

[Foxcastle]

Foodcoats, are you yet another mathematician?

[foodcoats]

Im assigning likelihoods based on information to make good decisions

Can you clarify this? You seem to be saying that EMC is town about 2/3 of the time, and that that fact somehow matters to your calculation here. Is that correct?

Fox how likely do you think it is that emc is scum? What percentage chance? How often does emc play scum or 3p with this line, in all possible universes?

Anyway everyone here seems terrible at reading anything other than mechanics and this game is still lame

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