I want to consider both the scenarios where Donny was scum, and where Donny was town. On balance, Donny probably was scum, so let's start there.
I know that, as scum, if you're smart, you can explain anything. So I'm leery of what people say when they're questioned. I'm more interested in how people behave. We can look at the votes on Donny to heuristically determine where we think the bussers are; this is what I brought forward during D1, about the "fat gut" of the wagon being a likely scumspot.
However, we can be even more precise if we look for people who react to Donny's catch in a scummy way: namely, by setting up a frame of reference that allows them to bus Donny in the near term if necessary, while holding off on actually voting temporarily for fear of overheating the wagon too early. As scum, losing a teammate D1 really, really, really sucks. Statistically, a mislynch is more likely, and you've really boned it up if you lose a player. So I think that we should be looking for the players who come in and prepare to hedge.
Vecna, Fox, and Jamie hop on Donny happily and easily. dargo joins it sideways - claiming it is because Donny was PR hunting, not because Donny potentially slipped. But I think dargo responds to Vecna's inquisition on the matter in a relaxed manner; dargo is just going through his thought process, not editing down information from his scum perspective.
The two players I see hedging are rdr and Chaqa.
rdr wants to let Donny respond to the accusations:
rdr takes the time to investigate the Secretary role. But keep in mind that smart scum would also do this in the hopes of finding leverage to clear scum!Donny:rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:50 pmI am looking at the Secretary thing. I don't find many places where Secretary is used related to Mafia. Will wait for Donny answer on this. And I think it's his first game, at least here.
rdr still abstains from voting and makes it clear that this may not be a scumslip:rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:53 pmOn MU, Secretary is a completely different role: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/da ... =Secretary
On balance, I think that the fact that rdr dug into the role makes it slightly less likely he is scum. He was investigative about it. And when he found information that damned Donny more, he gave it up, adding fuel to the fire. I know that I, personally, as scum, have looked things up to try to defend a scum partner, realized the information was disadvantageous, and not brought it forward. rdr is obviously a smart guy and I don't think scum!rdr would fan his scumpartner's flames. So, rdr is likely town, just careful.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:14 pmProbably, if this is a true scumslip and there is a Secretary I am pretty sure he will be just bussed. But we gain the information scum have a day chat (I don't think Donny is the Secretary, he will probably be more cautious).
Chaqa, however, is a different story. Whereas rdr fence-sits, Chaqa brings up the out for Donny - even though it is a convoluted out that doesn't entirely make sense:
Chaqa doesn't get an answer to this, but he votes for Donny shortly thereafter because the Secretary thing is "strong enough." However, at this point there are 8 votes on Donny - inevitability is creeping in. The moment to bus is nigh.Chaqa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:13 pmThis seems pretty solid to me. I've never encountered a role called a Secretary and was going to look it up once I got caught up. The fact that it's an Encryptor and Donny was in that game is a good lead. HOWEVER -Vecna wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:40 pmOk guys, I did some more thinking and searching in old games and the peterbot
I need some help to figure out if im correct or totally wrong.
Donny was talking about a secretary. Now, I know what a secretary is, because I was in ~that game~
Normally, a secretary is called an encryptor. This is like, almost universal, across mafia websites and usually the case as well on webdip.
See here: a game where I was the secretary. Surprise, surprise, Worcej was scum with me. Worcej is the GM here. He couldve very well done some throwback and called the encryptor a secretary again.
https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/bMgKmxLsVaqr
Now, Donny jumping to the conclusion that the role would be called secretary is mightily suspicious and VERY POSSIBLY a scumslip.
I need some help. Were there more recent games where an encryptor was called a secretary?
has he played in any other games? This may be his only exposure to mafia and/or the role?
What is interesting is how Chaqa immediately pivots and starts prepping the ground for who to think is scum if Donny is scum:
Chaqa was ready to give Donny the benefit of the doubt a second previously, and is now building the scum team. I'm not even sure what VCA means in this context or why we are debating that when the round is far from over and we don't yet see Donny's flip. But we get no explanation from Chaqa, nothing.
Chaqa then asks if EMC is going to cast a vote.
THAT is interesting owing to the emc/Chaqa interaction today. IS there some possibility that the scum team is Donny, Chaqa, emc...? Is Chaqa prodding emc to hurry up and get in on the mix here, with their pal so obviously doomed?
AND THEN Chaqa says "If Donny flips scum, brain will go under a microscope." So now we have, like, a BIG list from Chaqa of who we should think of as scum if Donny is scum. Chaqa is very interested in telling us who to think is scum if Donny is scum - which we don't actually know yet.
BUT HERE IS THE HOTTEST TICKET. Chaqa says "there is no saving him" and:
There's no need for a town player to say this! In fact, as town, we WANT scum to try to save their scum partners. You should not tell scum to not screw up! You let them screw up!!! Chaqa doesn't want scum to screw up! Chaqa might have some newb scum on his team and is letting everyone know to be careful, that Donny is toast and must be bussed.
We also have to remember that Chaqa tried to get us to believe Donny's tracker claim! It may seem audacious to try to save a scum partner with such a wild plan as the one that Chaqa advanced, but again, losing a scummate on D1 really, really sucks. I know that I fought hard to undo the emc wagon in the last game I played when the team accidentally bussed him on a policy wagon D1. I think any wise scum would try their damnedest to undo a wagon on their team on D1. I initially thought it was too crazy, and that it suggested Chaqa was town, but now, I am remembering that Chaqa's D1 was very blase, he tried to save Donny, he tried to hedge on Donny, and he tried to pin four random people into Donny's hypothetical team.
If Donny was scum, Chaqa is almost undoubtedly scum, and emc may be scum with him.
##VOTE Chaqa
(More to come... I still need to look at the "Donny was town" scenario, but it really, really looks like Donny was scum and Chaqa scum with him, trying to save him and also coach his team to be careful.)
