M1010 Mini-Mafia

[worcej]

From reviewing the current groupings, my theory on active pairs of scum are the following:

bozo-xorxes: Highly Unlikely - this would be our doomsday scenario. They've interacted a lot and talked about enough reads/opinions that I believe one of them has to be town or else they are putting in so much effort together and the rest of us town just suck.
bozo-sarah: Possible - a bit of D1 interaction but afterwards not much going on since. Could be talking in scumchat and coordinating from there.
bozo-damo: Possible - seems distant and under the radar. Bozo would be the 'leader' of this group, which I would believe based off my impression of damo.
bozo-brain: Possible - 2nd best player grouping for solving is this one (imo) but they don't seem to overlap and when the time comes they've squirreled away.
sarah-damo: Very Unlikely - too much inaction and not enough drive. Would be probably one of the most passive teams I've seen to date. NK choices wouldn't lead me to think they are a group together (bozo/xorxes would've died long ago)
sarah-xorxes: Possible - again, mentoring at night phase as an option. Also seeming to engage with her but not drive to a conclusion over the course of the game.
sarah-brain: Unlikely - Unless brain is going with a different scum strategy, I would've expected more interaction. If he is scum, he may have put all his effort into poking at Jamie, but just I don't see enough to tie them together.
xorxes-damo: Pretty Unlikely - xorxes has been towning him hard for a bit. I'd expect a little more questioning/pressure from xorxes on him if he was his scum partner just to create some theater.
xorxes-brain: Possible - Another pretty strong team near end game due to the calm-cool calculations from xorxes and the chaos from BB. Just enough not too distant and not too close.
brain-damo: Unlikely - assuming high levels of bussing atm to be even remotely possible.

NK is probably not damo or sarah if they are town, it'll be in xorxes/bozo/brain/myself. Those two have done little and are the scum's ticket to a win.

[bozotheclown]

I looked at the voting history and read everyone’s reasons for their votes. damo’s D3 and D4 look particularly scum indicative. On D3, damo voted for Jamie for being in a lot of his scum combinations, moved from Jamie to brainbomb, then moved off of brainbomb when his lynch looked inevitable. I think he was bussing Jamie, moved to brainbomb when he thought it was safe, then tried to get off brainbomb’s wagon before he flipped town. Damo got back on Jamie only after rdrivera soft claimed tracker. On D4, it looks like damo’s move from Foxcastle to brainbomb was an attempt to do exactly what Foxcastle was concerned about, leaving Foxcastle for a lylo lynch after brainbomb flipped town. damo then moved back to Foxcastle when xorxes voted for Foxcastle to try to force worcej to break the tie.

Jamie’s vote for damo D2 also looks like bussing, Jamie never gave a reason for voting for him. I reviewed damo’s past scum games, and damo has more of a propensity to bus as scum than I realized. By the way, I think the unvote is a scum tell. Jamie did it D1 to indicate he was reconsidering his bo_sox vote, and damo did it D3 and D4 to indicate he was reconsidering his brainbomb and Foxcastle votes.

Worcej has spent a lot of time voting for me, but voted for me D1 only after BunnyGo did, and only voted for me D2 after Foxcastle did. That is what I would call “cautious”. worcej had no interest in being involved in a brainbomb vs. Foxcastle lynch D4, staying on me all day even though there was no chance I would get lynched, and his D4 EOD looks bad. I also think damo gave him away by jumping to Foxcastle after xorxes set up a tie for worcej to break.

xorxes voting does not look that good either, but he would have to be putting in an unprecedented effort as scum. I also do not think he would so strongly town read Jamie D3 if Jamie was his partner.

brainbomb’s voting is impossible to interpret, as usual, but I would be surprised if he was Jamie’s partner here, despite their propensity to bus.

Sarah’s voting does not show much, but I think she is town.

So, damo/worcej is my conclusion.

[bozotheclown]

Okay so my reads atm are as follows:

Scum
Brainbomb
Xorces

Town
Damo
Worcej maybe

Bozo I really dont know... leaning towards scum

I think your reads are backwards.

[xorxes]

I was writing a long post but lost it with the site maintenance thing.

Long story short: brain and worcej are probably town because of the tantrums,
bozo-sarah, damo-sarah, bozo-damo in that order of likelihood.

Why did bozo and damo never suspected rivera? That's one thing that has been bothering me. They did not think he was the tracker before rivera softed to me because they left him alone in his crusade against Jamie.

I expect there's a good chance that I die, but we'll see.

[bozotheclown]

If I am correct, I could be the NK, so that damo and worcej can vote together, probably on brainbomb. brainbomb has concluded damo/worcej as well (with what I think is a good case), and I think xorxes will agree if I am the NK (he already pointed out damo’s D3 voting). Sarah’s reads are concerning, since I think they are reversed, so I am leaving this message to Sarah: If I am the NK, I think you should vote to lynch damo or worcej.

xorxes could also be the NK if I am correct, in which case Sarah would still likely be the deciding vote.

[brainbomb]

a few things to consider. if sarah is town shes 99% likely to be the nightkill.

namely because there is the least amount of interest in lynching her and shes unpredictable even to scum.

if bozo or worcej are scum id expect xorxes to die. because it would look like im finally caving to self preservation.

if anyone kills damo here they probably feel sarah will be voting me anyway and that points to a xorxes led maf team.

if bozo dies I think we can strongly consider worcej scum

if I die the scumteam probably just loses since 4 of the ppl alive want me lynched. theres certainly a mafia who has wanted me to be alive in F5 to secure a win

if the scumteam is xorxes and anyone else other than bozo, id assume bozo dies as he is more stubborn and less malleable.

if the scumteam is damo he almost always kills xorxes here out of fear

if the scumteam includes bozo its probably gonna be a frame kill. sarah for example seems more like a bozo kill.

if worcej is scum id assume he kills sarah if she isnt his teammate also

This is not properly thought out. It doesn't mean brain is scum I am just analysing and determining its value.

According to brain's scheme these are the NKs of the possible pairs (excluding brain himself)

zd x
zs x
zs x or s
zx s
ds x
dw x or s
dx z
sw x
sx z
wx z or s

Observations:

The 99% Sarah statement is nonsense

Some of the statements lead to 2 kills

The bozo death implying worcej is scum is curious because if you examine the results a Bozo death actually implies a scum Xorxes!

I suspect brain simply lacks the scientific rigour to think through the consequences of what he says rather than this being scum obfuscation but the latter cannot be completely dismissed.

For completeness the results for possible brain pairs are:

zb x
bd x
bs ?
bw x
bx z

Could this be bs trying to confuse things?

Could brain just be trying to cover up why he survives the night?

Could he be trying to frame me as my survival under his scheme is assured (btw rendering the if damo dies bit irrelevant, a bit of protection for teammate Xorxes perhaps). By the same token he could be framing worcej whose survival is also assured under his scheme.

So this is probably either woolly thinking from brain or a crafty cover for a bs or bx scumpair. Brain has the cunning but does he have the intellect?

Of course scum now have brain's scheme and my analysis to consider which adds a further layer of confusion.

Sarah, you, worcej, and xorx have all expressed desire to lynch me. I fail to see how id be the nk in any scenario

[brainbomb]

is the phase over?

[Chaqa]

Site was down. Please hold

[Chaqa]

Bozotheclown has died! He was a Vanilla Townie!

Day has begun. You may post.

[brainbomb]

Yea the only guy who thinks im town dies.

go ahead and try to explain why id ever fuckin do that as scum

[brainbomb]

Its simply damo and worcej

I dont see any world where xorxes is masterminding this. damo just doesnt wanna reduce his ego to fearkilling xorx

[brainbomb]

sarah, I know you plan to vote me, and if you do, put an end hammer with it. no point in dragging this out

[xorxes]

To expand on what I said about tantrums:

I think tantrums by town are in really poor taste. If I believe they are true and ignore them/give them a pass, and they turn out to be fake, I look like a fool. If I believe they are fake and push against them and they turn out to be true, I am an asshole for making someone who is feeling bad feel worse. So it's hard to know how to react to them, and people who do them as town are immature brats and people who use them as scum are cunning cynics.

bo_sox and Fox turned out to be true tantrums. I really don't want to think of brain or worcej as cunning cynics, so I think they are probably town, which means damo and Sarah are the final two.

The case against damo:

- I was never comfortable with his D1 reads list.
- He took rivera's side in my argument with him regarding Jamie/brain despite him having scumread brain on D1, and despite acknowledging that rivera's case on Jamie was really weak.
- He could not have done that as town believing rivera was the tracker because he then left rivera to fight for himself.
- He voted for brain when it looked like it would clinch the vote against Jamie, but he quickly changed his mind because I think he cross-voted with Fox. I have to review that.
- He then voted for Sarah somewhat out of nowhere and probably knowing it would not lead to anything. I have to check how that went as well.

The fact that he has been sort of buddying me all along I don't think is too relevant because when I am town he usually recognizes it, so that's NAI at best.

The case against Sarah:

- She has never engaged with anyone in any serious manner with regard to the game. She has engaged somewhat in non-game related matters, but all of her game talk is evasive, flippant or naive to the max. That was somewhat believable on D1, but it has become harder and harder to take as the game progressed.

[xorxes]

Yea the only guy who thinks im town dies.

go ahead and try to explain why id ever fuckin do that as scum

Then comes brainbomb with something like this and makes me doubt again.

[xorxes]

in any case my offer that we all agree to 1 vote tomorrow stands.

Meaning as you vote you do not change it ever at all.

and we stick to that. meaning anyone who violatea that we just lymch them

If we do this, there won't be any votes until EOD. I'm not sure if that helps town or not.

I'm willing to wait and hear everyone out before I vote, but I won't commit to not changing my vote when scum can do a last minute switch to win. It is very different if this is enforced by the rules than if it's based on an agreement that only town has any incentive to keep.

[xorxes]

@damo, if you are town, you need to convince me that either brain or worcej (or both) are scum.

Basically convince me that their emotional outbursts were cynically fake.

I don't really need convincing that you may be town, just that one of them is scum.

I don't think I can ask Sarah anything and expect an answer very different from "aw" or "hmm", but I am willing to hear your case too Sarah.

[brainbomb]

why would my emotional outbursts be scummier than the townies ive lynched?

[brainbomb]

I lynched bunny, fox, and didnt lynch Jamie

why isnt that enough to base the centerpeice of FOS ob

[xorxes]

why would my emotional outbursts be scummier than the townies ive lynched?

That's what I'm asking damo.

[xorxes]

I lynched bunny, fox, and didnt lynch Jamie

why isnt that enough to base the centerpeice of FOS ob

You didn't lynch Jamie because you were away sulking (if town), or just staying out of sight (if scum).

You lynching Fox tells us zilch, of course.

You did not lynch Bunny, so I have no idea why you're saying that. You probably meant bo_sox. I don't see what that tells us. You were not very active that EOD if I remember correctly.