M1010 Mini-Mafia

[xorxes]

rivera is town
xorx is town
bo is probably town

maybe brain isn't scum...

I will rule out brain-damo pair because of votes and stuff.

[xorxes]

Damo's laying low...

Definitely something to note - I am not one to talk because my best activity comes when I am at work and not at home, but 12+ hours of silence from him is uncommon.

No it isn't.

I am tentatively going to rule out worcej-damo as well.

[xorxes]

Idiot brought it on himself.

Why game after game are townsfolk imploding?

And he has cheek to regard himself as a superior player.

What a joke.

He tried quite hard to defend himself if you ask me. The least you could do is admit that you were wrong rather than throwing a temper tantrum at a dead townie.

This is 3 games in a row. That's what makes me angry. Brain 2 games ago, Vecna last time and now bo. I just feel let down.

Anyway I don't know if it's significant but both Fox and worcej moved from bozo to me. Not much else I can see from D2 votes.

Fox and brain are top of my suspect list at the mo. Gonna have a reread though.

I really want to townread damo for exchanges like this with Jamiet, which is what I did before, but then I always start doubting if they are fooling me with it.

[xorxes]

Town to scum

rdr
Xorxes
Bozo
emc
worcej
Sarah
Jamie
Fox
brain

no great confidence in this though

I think rivera could be town, but is there something in particular that makes him so towny?

not really, I kind of forced myself to put the list in order. I can't find anything scummy in rdr whereas for everyone else there is this:

Xorxes survival!
bozo the tunnelling
worcej his usual style is scummy by nature
Sarah the oddness of some of the posts and her introduction
Jamie voting pattern
Fox the scum confession
brain well, he's brain but mainly the PR fishing

Going to bed now, but something to think about tomorrow: why was damo so reluctant to join the brain wagon D3 when he had wanted to lynch him D1 and was still his top scumread (this was just before the letter soup).

D3 votes: Jamie - brain - unvote - Sarah - jamie. Look more into that unvote and that Sarah vote.

Hopefully more tomorrow before EON.

[worcej]

bozo is usually critical of me. hes given me a pass all game

Yes, he has had a few people he has barely interacted with during the game.

[worcej]

I should be on before EON to post more thoughts. I got most of my frustrations at least out for now.

[SarahK24]

I think rivera could be town, but is there something in particular that makes him so towny?

not really, I kind of forced myself to put the list in order. I can't find anything scummy in rdr whereas for everyone else there is this:

Xorxes survival!
bozo the tunnelling
worcej his usual style is scummy by nature
Sarah the oddness of some of the posts and her introduction
Jamie voting pattern
Fox the scum confession
brain well, he's brain but mainly the PR fishing

Going to bed now, but something to think about tomorrow: why was damo so reluctant to join the brain wagon D3 when he had wanted to lynch him D1 and was still his top scumread (this was just before the letter soup).

D3 votes: Jamie - brain - unvote - Sarah - jamie. Look more into that unvote and that Sarah vote.

Hopefully more tomorrow before EON.

Hmm

[SarahK24]

Okay so my reads atm are as follows:

Scum
Brainbomb
Xorces

Town
Damo
Worcej maybe

Bozo I really dont know... leaning towards scum

[brainbomb]

Im working on a winrate in lylo f5 research project.

[brainbomb]

As you are likely aware towns winrate is much lower in F5 than F3.

what I wanted to compare was votes locking in lylo F5 vs webdip format.

if we made a truce that each of us gets 1 vote only tomorrow and we all agree to those terms. no unvoting. no vote shifts. 1 vote and we all agree to supply a case with said vote

[brainbomb]

I play on mu and a few other sites where Votes are automatically locked in at LYLO. and I can tell you it favors town more than scum. When you only get 1 vote, you make or break the game and many times scum are impatient and blitz the vote.

on here scum wins due to waivering
I recall in the mini game xorxes beat me I was voting xorx first, then rivera and eventually end hammered on rivera and xorx won as scum.

in lylo vs bozo on vdip I led the lynch on bozo with support from mouse (wtf ever happened to him?) and bozo was of course scum.

in total ive been in lylo in M17 as scum, Vdip mini game as town, the recent mini game as scum, a mini game as town where xorxes won.

Its hard to win in f5. it is imperative you put aside tunnels and rethink the entire game

[brainbomb]

a few things to consider. if sarah is town shes 99% likely to be the nightkill.

namely because there is the least amount of interest in lynching her and shes unpredictable even to scum.

if bozo or worcej are scum id expect xorxes to die. because it would look like im finally caving to self preservation.

if anyone kills damo here they probably feel sarah will be voting me anyway and that points to a xorxes led maf team.

if bozo dies I think we can strongly consider worcej scum

if I die the scumteam probably just loses since 4 of the ppl alive want me lynched. theres certainly a mafia who has wanted me to be alive in F5 to secure a win

if the scumteam is xorxes and anyone else other than bozo, id assume bozo dies as he is more stubborn and less malleable.

if the scumteam is damo he almost always kills xorxes here out of fear

if the scumteam includes bozo its probably gonna be a frame kill. sarah for example seems more like a bozo kill.

if worcej is scum id assume he kills sarah if she isnt his teammate also

[brainbomb]

I guess it doesnt really matter. scum wouldnt wanna kill anyone who wants me dead, theyd maybe even no kill.

[brainbomb]

if alive my vote will go on damo to my grave. so theres that

[brainbomb]

Towns winrate on mafiascum in 2019 was 34%
This doesnt consider f3 or f5 losses, just barebones. But what it tells you is town loses in lylo 66% of the time.

[brainbomb]

there was a lot of talk about my lack of high volume. and lack of energy this game.

I spent last two games living as a vig, and a cop. where I was responsible, not spammy although my vig game was much poorer. I value dying in mafia by scumkill more than anything. my goal is always focused on clearing myself to have a platform I can die on.

in my early days my play was to talk alot, generate noise, push alot, conspiracies, wild theories, catch the whole team.

ive settled more into handcuffing myself to avoid criticism. I get weary of being attacked for my being all over the place. but really this is just an incredibly hard community to guage. the forum is super poor for feeling a sincerity over time. the human sebsation is so muted and its mostly luck to actually win as town here.



Xorxes hasnt been unreasonable. he hasnt let anyone lead. he has been aggressive and talkative. Which are not scumtraits of his. But he hasnt been accurate. he hasnt been effective. And im wondering if its simply just gonna be too late to do anything that even changes his mind.

damo is just purely chaotic evil here. nothing he does seems to be sincere. his votes all just look like xorxes is towing him around and damo just hops on his back. I cant see any town team combo where damo is actually a good guy here
Sure you can argue jamie voted him and vice versa but theres a severe lack of conviction on damo.

bozo just seems town. stubborn. boorish. non malleable. verbose. disappointing. bit town
and really what bothers me is how few favors he does himself
he doesnt listen to others. he doesnt interact. he just blankets the game with theoreticals that dont always feel succinct. bozos cases are alot like NDs old WOT sermons
they sprinkle facts with suppositions and go nowhere. I recall being a victim of bozos cases in past games. seeing how little he is willing to get any new thouggts feom his targets is a problem.

sarah doesnt seem town in anything she does. but she seems fearless, haughty, and very much like she wants to get something right. I see flashes of usefulness in her at times but its laced with such blatantly scummy retorts. her scumminess is so overstated it feels like Jamie really was spotlighting a new player to set her up for failure in his eventual flip. his advice to her seems like he wants to earn her loyalty as opposed to teaching her how to scum.

worcej has never crossed into towny for me. Hes always felt too tame. not fiesty enough..im used to seeing worcej play like hes cornered when he isnt. ive seen mostly no urgency. Eod 4 was peculiar for alot of reasons. Worcej noted that fox wasnt up for lynch but I was. and instead of even talking of my impending death he was debating why fox was a bad lynch. But never gave a reason. Then he says I am the best lynch but he prefers a vanity on bozo.

EOD4 is why worcej should be a lynch option tomorrow along with damo.

At present id say worcej and damo are scum and id be fine lynching either.

I have no intention of trying to lynch bozo or xorxes if theyre alive. Sarah may decide the game regardless of any of my above opinions

[brainbomb]

in any case my offer that we all agree to 1 vote tomorrow stands.

Meaning as you vote you do not change it ever at all.

and we stick to that. meaning anyone who violatea that we just lymch them

[brainbomb]

Notes from D4
at no point was Sarah or xorxes ever a wagon larger than 1.

bozo voted worcej and fox
fox voted me only
sarah voted fox and me only
worcej voted bozo and me only

xorxes voted worcej, fox, and me
damo voted fox, me, and then fox. also unvoted once

I voted sarah, fox, xorx, damo and myself when a tie was imminent

What im seeing is bozo vs worcej is likely not town v town
and im. assuming worcej kills bozo tonight now that I see bozo is least likely to lynch me of anyone alive. and vice versa.



Timeline
at 08:59 damo unvotes fox
at 07:28 damo votes me
at 07:26 xorxes follows damo onto me
at 00:10 xorxes moves to fox
at 00:09 damo invalid votes fox

damo tells worcej he needs to break the tie
worcej doesnt seem to acknowledge that I can self pres and break the tie myself
I self vote
damo votes fox for real
now its 3-3

I just got done saying I dont wanna tie it, and was actively saying worcej needed to decide between me and fox.

worcej argues

Because you have been flippantly scummy and made bullshit claims throughout this game and have since just kinda disappeared.

My hand is kinda tied at this point because BB will just move and we get no lynch. Damo's move to fox guarantees he can force the issue.

Damo let worcej off the hook of having to make an impactful vote here. Damo actually shielded worcej from having to explain his positions on me and fox more clearly.

I HAVE BEEN PLEADING FOR YOU FUCKS TO GO TO BOZO

knowing fox is dying, bozo is all worcej can talk about. he isnt angry fox is dying, he isnt angry im not dying. as evidenced by:

Problem is you are known to do this as town. Which BB are you this game?

this is very ambivalent and uncertain. why does worcej capitulate to my demands? why does damo and xorxes echo my complaint?

these are questions we all should review. it could be the difference between a win or a loss now. one of us gets to die.

and as much as id like it to be me, itd be a cold day in hell before damo would have the ego hit to nk me.

[damo666]

a few things to consider. if sarah is town shes 99% likely to be the nightkill.

namely because there is the least amount of interest in lynching her and shes unpredictable even to scum.

if bozo or worcej are scum id expect xorxes to die. because it would look like im finally caving to self preservation.

if anyone kills damo here they probably feel sarah will be voting me anyway and that points to a xorxes led maf team.

if bozo dies I think we can strongly consider worcej scum

if I die the scumteam probably just loses since 4 of the ppl alive want me lynched. theres certainly a mafia who has wanted me to be alive in F5 to secure a win

if the scumteam is xorxes and anyone else other than bozo, id assume bozo dies as he is more stubborn and less malleable.

if the scumteam is damo he almost always kills xorxes here out of fear

if the scumteam includes bozo its probably gonna be a frame kill. sarah for example seems more like a bozo kill.

if worcej is scum id assume he kills sarah if she isnt his teammate also

This is not properly thought out. It doesn't mean brain is scum I am just analysing and determining its value.

According to brain's scheme these are the NKs of the possible pairs (excluding brain himself)

zd x
zs x
zs x or s
zx s
ds x
dw x or s
dx z
sw x
sx z
wx z or s

Observations:

The 99% Sarah statement is nonsense

Some of the statements lead to 2 kills

The bozo death implying worcej is scum is curious because if you examine the results a Bozo death actually implies a scum Xorxes!

I suspect brain simply lacks the scientific rigour to think through the consequences of what he says rather than this being scum obfuscation but the latter cannot be completely dismissed.

For completeness the results for possible brain pairs are:

zb x
bd x
bs ?
bw x
bx z

Could this be bs trying to confuse things?

Could brain just be trying to cover up why he survives the night?

Could he be trying to frame me as my survival under his scheme is assured (btw rendering the if damo dies bit irrelevant, a bit of protection for teammate Xorxes perhaps). By the same token he could be framing worcej whose survival is also assured under his scheme.

So this is probably either woolly thinking from brain or a crafty cover for a bs or bx scumpair. Brain has the cunning but does he have the intellect?

Of course scum now have brain's scheme and my analysis to consider which adds a further layer of confusion.

[bozotheclown]

Definitely something to note - I am not one to talk because my best activity comes when I am at work and not at home, but 12+ hours of silence from him is uncommon.

No it isn't.

I am tentatively going to rule out worcej-damo as well.

I do not see the reason for this conclusion, it looks like it could just be distancing.