M1010 Mini-Mafia

[xorxes]

For FUCKS Sake. Now I am concerned. What the fuck did anyone see in EMC?

@worcej, do you care so little about who gets nightkilled that you respond to old night posts in catch-up style before you even know what the night results were?

Depends on how much I need to catch up on honestly because if I respond out of order I could see someone scumming me for it down the road.

So when you come back to the game for the first time after EON, you are not all that impatient to know what happened that night?

[xorxes]

Also, context:

RIP Kgary.

Maybe town PRs need to lay low a little more on Day 1 to break this streak...

Maybe it's just me, but I am kinda meh on losing the RC.

The liklihood of the role cop finding scum was very low considering it 1/3 non-vanilla scan outcomes would be said scum. I think if it came down to it later, a non-vanilla claim had more odds of screwing us over in mylo/lylo.

What was this context for? If it was related to my question, I'm not seeing the connection.

[xorxes]

do we believe this?

if bb is not tracker should the tracker cc?

@damo, when you asked this, I thought you might be the tracker. Why did you ask this when the answer was obvious?

Also this reminds me, what was it I said that made you think I had softed VT?

i) disagree
ii) post #93

She asked if I was town, not if I was VT. How does that suggest VT?

[worcej]

@worcej, do you care so little about who gets nightkilled that you respond to old night posts in catch-up style before you even know what the night results were?

Depends on how much I need to catch up on honestly because if I respond out of order I could see someone scumming me for it down the road.

So when you come back to the game for the first time after EON, you are not all that impatient to know what happened that night?

It also depends on if I am on mobile versus PC. I struggle to check the bot on mobile and usually just don't.

[worcej]

Also, context:

Maybe it's just me, but I am kinda meh on losing the RC.

The liklihood of the role cop finding scum was very low considering it 1/3 non-vanilla scan outcomes would be said scum. I think if it came down to it later, a non-vanilla claim had more odds of screwing us over in mylo/lylo.

What was this context for? If it was related to my question, I'm not seeing the connection.

My reaction of being concerned was based on losing the doctor when I didn't care about losing the role cop. I was assuming that was the point you're trying to make, which I guess is wrong.

[xorxes]

Also, context:

What was this context for? If it was related to my question, I'm not seeing the connection.

My reaction of being concerned was based on losing the doctor when I didn't care about losing the role cop. I was assuming that was the point you're trying to make, which I guess is wrong.

Right, the point was that you were responding to relatively trivial stuff before even knowing who had been nightkilled.

The reaction itself was NAI. Of course nobody wanted to lose the doctor, it's not like anyone would say they were happy with that.

[damo666]

@damo, when you asked this, I thought you might be the tracker. Why did you ask this when the answer was obvious?

Also this reminds me, what was it I said that made you think I had softed VT?

i) disagree
ii) post #93

She asked if I was town, not if I was VT. How does that suggest VT?

I interpreted your NK talk as taunting scum to kill you to protect PRs

[bozotheclown]

Yes, those are good points for damo. Some of the interactions between bozo and Jamie also are good points for bozo. The post where Jamie lists people's opinions on Sarah (mostly negative) are good points for Sarah. The fights with brainbomb don't really look like theatrics to me despite what I told Jamie, so points for brainbomb. That basically leaves Fox and worcej, who as I said had a really poor showing D3.

Not sure why you think I'm scummy though. Because I thought your case on Jamie was bad? You should take into account that I did not have your privileged information, you shouldn't be holding that against me. Your case was bad. You were saying he was a floater and a coaster, but he was one of the most active players. And you were ignoring the real floaters. How could that give me confidence that you were being sincere? It didn't even cross my mind you were the watcher until you basically told me, because my best guesses for watcher were bozo or damo.

That is a big change from N2 when you called my reads list "horrible".

A lot has happened since then. The remarkable thing would have been if my reads had not changed.

Your reads now being so similar to my reads you called horrible N2 is concerning, though.

[xorxes]

i) disagree
ii) post #93

She asked if I was town, not if I was VT. How does that suggest VT?

I interpreted your NK talk as taunting scum to kill you to protect PRs

I see yes, I suppose there may have been a bit of that, but not the main intention. In truth I don't like being nightkilled even if it saves a PR.

[Foxcastle]

I'm going to go to sleep.

I hope our newbie shows up. I'm slightly concerned that "Sarah" only joined the site a couple of weeks ago and just signed up to Mafia at the last moment. After Pjandy last time, I hope we don't get another newb absentee. Not sure if people reaching out to the newb with "oh here's some super helpful advice" before they even post for the first time are earnestly helpful or trying to earn townie brownie points.

Oh well hopefully by the time I wake up and check back here there will be something more interesting to talk about.

Huh, Jamiet both coaching SarahK to show up and shading people who were being helpful? (I think this validates my view that scum are unlikely to want to lynch newbies.)

There's a string of posts on pages 7-9 from Xorxes engaging with BunnyGo. It's interesting because Jamiet had also engaged with BunnyGo in a similar way just prior. Not sure if it means anything, possibly just that BunnyGo was around and creating moments for others to engage. On page 11, Jamiet comes back and picks up the BunnyGo thread from Xorxes and keeps pushing. I think that points to Xorxes being town, I don't think Jamiet would so brazenly work with a scummate to push a mislynch on D1 when he knows that town is likely to mislynch on its own.

Page 6, Xorxes predicts a scumteam of Bunny, Kgray, and Brain; on page 8 Brain townreads Xorxes.

I'm going to go to sleep.

Oh well hopefully by the time I wake up and check back here there will be something more interesting to talk about.

OK, I'm going now.

Hopefully there's something interesting to read in the morning.

Xorxes, did you consciously (or subconsciously?) copy my post, or is this just a coincidence?

I don't think scum-Jamiet would point out that coincidence about a scummate.

As I continue, there's just a bunch more Xorxes-Jamiet interaction on D1 that I don't think is scum theatre. So I'm giving Xorxes a heavy townread.

On page 16, Jamiet responds to an inquiry from Xorxes by saying he was "doing a Flavius", which is an interesting echo to Worcej saying on the preceding page (15 minutes prior to Jamie's comment) that he would be "Flavius posting" to catch up. However, my theory that scum pay attention to certain thing (like each other's posts, in this case; or their NK victims' reads in another) and that it influence their responses led me very astray on Jamiet.

The worcej-Brainbomb exchange across pages 16-17 does look like possible scum theater.

[Foxcastle]

21 possible scum teams.

Bozo + Brain
Bozo + Damo
Bozo + Fox
Bozo + SarahK
Bozo + Worcej
Bozo + Xorxes
Brain + Damo
Brain + Fox
Brain + SarahK
Brain + Worcej
Brain + Xorxes
Damo + Fox
Damo + SarahK
Damo + Worcej
Damo + Xorxes
Fox + SarahK
Fox + Worcej
Fox + Xorxes
SarahK + Worcej
SarahK + Xorxes
Worcej + Xorxes

I'm excluding myself, and here's my POE. (Damo, take note, this is how it's done.)

Brain + Damo: I find it highly that both Jamiet and Damo would bus Brainbomb immediately on day 1. Maybe one of them does, but I don't see both of them. Additionally, on page 112, Jamiet scumreads Brainbomb and Damo. I think he's unlikely to make them both hard scumreads. On Day 3, I don't think Damo and Brainbomb are both early bussers of Jamie, especially with Brainbomb turning around and bussing Damo.

Bozo + Xorxes:on page 10, Bozo agrees with Xorxes that Bunny and Kgray could be scum, but dissents on Brain and suggests Bo instead. I don't think scum-Bozo would do that if Xorxes is also scum; I also think they would both have been cognizant of those reads and would not have NK'd Kgray.

Damo + Xorxes: on page 10, Damo makes a ridiculous statement of "I estimate the odds against this being correct is 164-1" about Xorxes (and relatedly Bozo's) prediction of a Bunny-Kgray-Brain scumteam. I think if Damo and Xorxes are scum together, Damo would do a more serious takedown with some actual substance to it. I also don't think Damo and Xorxes bus Jamiet as close together they did on D3.

SarahK + Worcej: I doubt if SarahK is scum and voted me, that she would provide her scummate as my co-conspirator.

Bozo+SarahK: Bozo engages with SarahK consistently and with sustained but accommodating pressure. That's a pretty big risk for scum-Bozo to take, especially on Day 1 with SarahK being an unknown quantity. That Bozo hasn't come to a stronger conclusion on her makes me think he is town, but more specifically, makes me think he's not scum with SarahK.

Xorxes + Brain/SarahK/Worjce: The more I look at D1, the less I think Xorxes is anything but town.

Remaining
Bozo + Brain
Bozo + Damo
Bozo + Worcej
Brain + SarahK
Brain + Worcej
Damo + SarahK
Damo + Worcej

[xorxes]

That is a big change from N2 when you called my reads list "horrible".

A lot has happened since then. The remarkable thing would have been if my reads had not changed.

Your reads now being so similar to my reads you called horrible N2 is concerning, though.

I see, you think I'm buddying you. I'm offering no reasoning behind my new reads. They have not been evolving in a clear and understandable manner.

[damo666]

She asked if I was town, not if I was VT. How does that suggest VT?

I interpreted your NK talk as taunting scum to kill you to protect PRs

I see yes, I suppose there may have been a bit of that, but not the main intention. In truth I don't like being nightkilled even if it saves a PR.

Of course, but it was my immediate thinking.

[bozotheclown]

xorxes: I do not agree with his characterization of D1 EOD, I would not expect him to want BunnyGo to risk a shot

rdrivera: looks OK, but could be lurking as scum

@bozo, why was it a problem for you that I was willing for Bunny to risk a shot, but you had no problem with rivera (and others, but especially him) having the same position?

1. From experience I would expect you more than anyone else to look at the trade off of shooting vs. not shooting.

2. You endorsed BunnyGo shooting in your response to Foxcastle after I pointed out the benefit of not shooting.

3. I was more confident that rdrivera was town.

[xorxes]

xorxes: I do not agree with his characterization of D1 EOD, I would not expect him to want BunnyGo to risk a shot

rdrivera: looks OK, but could be lurking as scum

@bozo, why was it a problem for you that I was willing for Bunny to risk a shot, but you had no problem with rivera (and others, but especially him) having the same position?

1. From experience I would expect you more than anyone else to look at the trade off of shooting vs. not shooting.

2. You endorsed BunnyGo shooting in your response to Foxcastle after I pointed out the benefit of not shooting.

3. I was more confident that rdrivera was town.

When you are more confident that someone is town, you don't bother to question them on things that seem off?

Same question I asked damo, and never received a good answer: what made you confident that rivera was town? He did not have any egregiously scummy moments (except when he asked Jamie if he was counterclaiming brain), but there was nothing that screaned towny either. He was the lurkiest out of everyone, which is where scum hide most comfortably. So what was it about him that gave you confidence?

[xorxes]

In the following I have assumed rdr is town and eliminated some scum pairings that I deem as unlikely.

List all of them, please.

You are clearly tailoring this entire exercise to get me mislyched and you can fuck off.

If you care to read you will find

I'm going to say damo is town. No use trying to find double intentions in all of this.

[bozotheclown]

@bozo, why was it a problem for you that I was willing for Bunny to risk a shot, but you had no problem with rivera (and others, but especially him) having the same position?

1. From experience I would expect you more than anyone else to look at the trade off of shooting vs. not shooting.

2. You endorsed BunnyGo shooting in your response to Foxcastle after I pointed out the benefit of not shooting.

3. I was more confident that rdrivera was town.

When you are more confident that someone is town, you don't bother to question them on things that seem off?

Same question I asked damo, and never received a good answer: what made you confident that rivera was town? He did not have any egregiously scummy moments (except when he asked Jamie if he was counterclaiming brain), but there was nothing that screaned towny either. He was the lurkiest out of everyone, which is where scum hide most comfortably. So what was it about him that gave you confidence?

I agreed with or at least understood most of his reads (until I got concerned D3 before I knew he was the watcher), his argument to lynch SK24 D2 seems town motivated, I liked his analysis in general, and I did not find any reason to suspect him.

[xorxes]

Okay...
Bozo: probably town
Brain: seems alright
Damo: idk
Fox: I still think he's a scum witch worcej
Jamiet: I think he might be a scum, but idk could be town
Rdrivera:: I dont really have an impression of him... he hasn't asked me much
Xorxes: may be scum idk
Worcej: still think he's with foxcastle
I'm still working on trying to work on how to identify who's scum vs town before I really crack down on anything else

@Sarah, if you ever read this, can you do me the favor of explaining this read you have of the Fox-worcej connection?

Chances are that you are in fact correct. That pair is a strong contender for being the last two remaining mafia. But we need to understand what made you make that connection. Show us some post from them that made you think that, something they said, something they did, something. Give us your train of thought.

Remember that we need to see you as town so we don't lynch you. And the best way for us to see you as town is if you explain yourself as openly as possible. Even if you don't think your reasons are very impressive, just tell us what they are. When you don't give reasons it all seems meaningless.

[damo666]

In the lack of any further outstanding developments I will probably vote for either Fox or worcej.

I would like to hear from sarah and brain again.

[damo666]

Interesting Xpost