M1010 Mini-Mafia

[Chaqa]

Night has ended. Please hold.

[Foxcastle]

I will be looking at everyone, but saying that looking bad is irrelevant makes no sense.

It's super relevant, because I think it's more likely to be town indicative.

If there's a reasonable explanation, yes.

The reasonable explanation is that solving and being town is messy work that lacks a guiding principle. One day it's gut reactions, and then it's VCA, and then you see an opportunity for a reaction test or to really hammer someone with questions. Those are disjointed methods and they produce disjointed results that are hard to read. So townies look inconistent, where as scum have a guiding principle that produces a cleaner picture: look consistent, don't attract too much attention, make people think you're okay.

[rdrivera2005]

You were townreading Jamiet before of this and this is what strike me as really odd as he looked really scummy to me (to the point I tracked him). I think scum had the most interest in having his Joat townread to avoid being Tracked.

The Bozo point of you keep pushing for the shot was also on my mind, it's weird you still want a shoot after Bozo showing it's effects and even without a voting is something like that to avoid him shooting a PR.

The only thing that give pause is you keep defending Jamiet, knowing he did the kill. But you are good enough to play this way and wait to see if I will end claiming.

If I am wrong sorry, but this time you can't say it's because I am scum...

I think town will again ignore my advice to lynch you and will lose, but who knows.

Well, we had different reads on Jamiet. I thought he looked much townier than brainbomb, yes.

I don't say you're wrong because you're scum, obviously. You're wrong because you always end up scumreading me. When I'm scum you end up being right and when I'm town you end up being wrong. So yes, it is unfortunate that you leave the game with this advice. Same as you said "lynch xorxes if I die" after N1 or N2, I don't remember which. People would have thought you had tracked me, and I would have been mislynched, it was really shitty to say that given your role.

People aren't that stupid, it's almost impossible to get a N1 Track as Joat would have used his Ninja power. And D2 he probably used the Strongman, but ties is less sure.

I didn't know always scumread you, I think it's more or less the same level as you scumreading me.

[Chaqa]

rdrivera2005 has died. He was the Tracker!

Day 4 has begun. You may post.

[damo666]

I think it's still a very unusual and cut-throat tactic that is not in your norm, but I see what you're getting at. I don't necessarily like it, but I understand it.

Do you think scum intentionally stopped posting near EOD or was it just weekend normal attendance issues?

Fox posted 7 minutes before EOD. How do you know he's not scum?

I don’t? And he is only one person who posted right at eod.

But you said scum stopped posting. Fox posted. Hence Fox is town. Hence you are scum. No?

[worcej]

Fox posted 7 minutes before EOD. How do you know he's not scum?

I don’t? And he is only one person who posted right at eod.

But you said scum stopped posting. Fox posted. Hence Fox is town. Hence you are scum. No?

I don't understand how if Fox is town based on posting once near EOD, I am therefor scum. Is this another one of your pairs things?

[xorxes]

Here is my current reading of the remaining players, before doing any re-reading in light of EMC's flip:

bozotheclown - Town
brainbomb - Scum
damo666 - Scum
Foxcastle - Scumlean
Jamiet99uk - Town
rdrivera2005 - Scumlean
SarahK24 - Null
worcej - Townlean
xorxes - Town

I'd be happy with a Brain lynch, or Damo, today.

bozotheclown - Town
xorxes - Town
worcej - Townlean

SarahK24 - Null

rdrivera2005 - Scumlean
Foxcastle - Scumlean
brainbomb - Scum
damo666 - Scum

Symmetry analysis indicates either worcej and Fox or bozo and damo as teammates, assuming brain and Sarah are town.

(For those of you who like to make huge deals out of things like this: no, I don't believe "symmetry analysis" is a thing. I'm just re-posting this list to keep it in mind just in case there's something in there.)

[xorxes]

##Vote worcej
##End

Im the tracker I saw worej perform the kill

do we believe this?

if bb is not tracker should the tracker cc?

@damo, when you asked this, I thought you might be the tracker. Why did you ask this when the answer was obvious?

Also this reminds me, what was it I said that made you think I had softed VT?

[damo666]

I don’t? And he is only one person who posted right at eod.

But you said scum stopped posting. Fox posted. Hence Fox is town. Hence you are scum. No?

I don't understand how if Fox is town based on posting once near EOD, I am therefor scum. Is this another one of your pairs things?

I'm simply saying that if you know Fox is town you must be scum.

[xorxes]

As you are talking about this, what are the towntells you have on Fox, Jamiet and Bozo?

bozo obsessing and putting in a lot of effort on a case I think is more of a towntell than a scumtell for him. For example, last game he had a pretty solid case on Bunny, but he didn't care enough to pursue it with much zest.

Jamie oozes towniness, and I find it strange that you don't see it. I might be blind to something, but I can't see the slightest bit of imposture there. The "case" you have on him, changing his vote to Bunny in preparation for a mislynch of bo_sox, can easily be turned against you: you seemed to know bo_sox was a mislynch that Jamie would be preparing for, so you were preparing a mislynch of Jamie for after bo flipped. I'm not making that case because it is just as weak. Is there anything against Jamie besides that vote change?

Fox I'll grant you I don't have huge confidence in. He feels towny at times, but I put him there more because of POE and the fact that others were giving me more bad vibes. I hated the scum claim, it looked forced, unnecessary, out of place. But it can just as easily be town awkwardness as scum.

No, I don't have anything else on Jamie.

Rereading D3, I run into this.

Kind of strange because my post was a response to rivera. I'm guessing this was because you had similar reads to rivera's and somehow thought that I was talking to you?

I really don't remember if at the time I thought rivera was who posted this, but I guess that must be what happened because I didn't notice anything strange here.

[worcej]

But you said scum stopped posting. Fox posted. Hence Fox is town. Hence you are scum. No?

I don't understand how if Fox is town based on posting once near EOD, I am therefor scum. Is this another one of your pairs things?

I'm simply saying that if you know Fox is town you must be scum.

So you are drawing a connection to me 'knowing' fox is town somehow based off me asking rdr if he believed his claim influenced scums posting for the end of the phase?

Talk about a shit connection.

[damo666]

bozo obsessing and putting in a lot of effort on a case I think is more of a towntell than a scumtell for him. For example, last game he had a pretty solid case on Bunny, but he didn't care enough to pursue it with much zest.

Jamie oozes towniness, and I find it strange that you don't see it. I might be blind to something, but I can't see the slightest bit of imposture there. The "case" you have on him, changing his vote to Bunny in preparation for a mislynch of bo_sox, can easily be turned against you: you seemed to know bo_sox was a mislynch that Jamie would be preparing for, so you were preparing a mislynch of Jamie for after bo flipped. I'm not making that case because it is just as weak. Is there anything against Jamie besides that vote change?

Fox I'll grant you I don't have huge confidence in. He feels towny at times, but I put him there more because of POE and the fact that others were giving me more bad vibes. I hated the scum claim, it looked forced, unnecessary, out of place. But it can just as easily be town awkwardness as scum.

No, I don't have anything else on Jamie.

Rereading D3, I run into this.

Kind of strange because my post was a response to rivera. I'm guessing this was because you had similar reads to rivera's and somehow thought that I was talking to you?

I really don't remember if at the time I thought rivera was who posted this, but I guess that must be what happened because I didn't notice anything strange here.

Lol. I don't know why I responded to this. Perhaps it was midst an exchange between us? I haven't checked.

[xorxes]

Jamie oozes towniness, and I find it strange that you don't see it. I might be blind to something, but I can't see the slightest bit of imposture there. The "case" you have on him, changing his vote to Bunny in preparation for a mislynch of bo_sox, can easily be turned against you: you seemed to know bo_sox was a mislynch that Jamie would be preparing for, so you were preparing a mislynch of Jamie for after bo flipped. I'm not making that case because it is just as weak. Is there anything against Jamie besides that vote change?

No, I don't have anything else on Jamie.

What do you think about my case that an equally strong (or equally weak) case can be made on rivera ("preparing a mislynch") if Jamie is town?

Well, it seems I did notice it was you after all, but I didn't think you answering a question I made to rivera was noteworthy. OK, not a big deal.

[xorxes]

e.m.c^42 has died! He was the Doctor!

You may post.

For FUCKS Sake. Now I am concerned. What the fuck did anyone see in EMC?

@worcej, do you care so little about who gets nightkilled that you respond to old night posts in catch-up style before you even know what the night results were?

[worcej]

Players left:
bozotheclown
brainbomb
damo666
Foxcastle
SarahK24
worcej
xorxes

2 scum in this mix. General thoughts:

1. A lot of my analysis on long-term players is meta based and maybe I am shit for that. At least I think I'm getting better every once and awhile.
2. One of xorxes or bozo is scum - it would take impressive theater for it to be both of them based off their interactions. They are the two 'strongest' players left imo. I am inclined to believe it is bozo personally because his late game solving skills are pretty damn good and I'd expect xorxes to have hit him by now, unless there was obvious PR crumbs from emc and kgray that I just didn't see that would've been picked up on by the scum. Xorxes still being alive and the points rdr made are the shade on him.
3. BB seems to have disappeared. Not a normal occurrence and his behavior is like he gave up. He's done this both as town and scum from what I can remember. To me, he is a wildcard and for now I'll slot in town just to try to make sense of the rest. If he is scum, it throws my next point out the window...
4. The 2nd scum is in Sarah/Fox/Damo. Of this group, Sarah is the most 'distant' in terms of contributing and analyzing - she provides little input towards the situation. This could be a newb!scum defense, but I don't know if she is a true newb or not - the Flavius mistake continues to haunt me. Fox has been the most towny of this three and I don't really fault people for weekend business - the phase lengths this mini-game hurt in regards to that. Damo is a wildcard for me, only because I generally scum him and just go at him for how he plays - I have an almost Jamie/BB-esque relationship with him only because I get annoyed time and time again by his one sentence posts that convey little unless I assume his intentions. I have been trying to not just jump on him, but this could be creating a blind spot in my ability to read him by trying to not tunnel him. So in conclusion, I'd rate the possibilities of scum from these three to be Sarah, Damo, Fox, with Sarah being the highest.

[worcej]

e.m.c^42 has died! He was the Doctor!

You may post.

For FUCKS Sake. Now I am concerned. What the fuck did anyone see in EMC?

@worcej, do you care so little about who gets nightkilled that you respond to old night posts in catch-up style before you even know what the night results were?

Depends on how much I need to catch up on honestly because if I respond out of order I could see someone scumming me for it down the road.

[worcej]

Also, context:

RIP Kgary.

Maybe town PRs need to lay low a little more on Day 1 to break this streak...

Maybe it's just me, but I am kinda meh on losing the RC.

The liklihood of the role cop finding scum was very low considering it 1/3 non-vanilla scan outcomes would be said scum. I think if it came down to it later, a non-vanilla claim had more odds of screwing us over in mylo/lylo.

[worcej]

Another issue I am trying to figure out is this: rdr was right - Sarah is definitely an issue when it comes to lylo for us because of her lack of contribution and most likely will pocket someone. But scum know this too. Do I look at this obvious fact as more inclination that she is town and put BB back into the grouping of Fox and Damo? Or do I assume she is scum being a noob and trying to stay distant from her other teammate? Would she play better with advice from bozo/xorxes?

[damo666]

##Vote worcej
##End

Im the tracker I saw worej perform the kill

do we believe this?

if bb is not tracker should the tracker cc?

@damo, when you asked this, I thought you might be the tracker. Why did you ask this when the answer was obvious?

Also this reminds me, what was it I said that made you think I had softed VT?

i) disagree
ii) post #93

[xorxes]

He is my strongest townread and has nothing scummy. My main reason for his exclusion is to narrow the field. If he is scum we are unlikely to win anyway imo.

WHY is he your strongest townread?

See post #2221

I don't suppose he would be pushing you on this as a teammate, but you were being very evasive about this. The post you refer him to is this:

Town to scum

rdr
Xorxes
Bozo
emc
worcej
Sarah
Jamie
Fox
brain

no great confidence in this though

I think rivera could be town, but is there something in particular that makes him so towny?

not really, I kind of forced myself to put the list in order. I can't find anything scummy in rdr whereas for everyone else there is this:

Xorxes survival!
bozo the tunnelling
worcej his usual style is scummy by nature
Sarah the oddness of some of the posts and her introduction
Jamie voting pattern
Fox the scum confession
brain well, he's brain but mainly the PR fishing

But this didn't tell us why you thought rivera was towny. When I said that this only included scumtells but no towntells you said that you did take towntells into account as well but you didn't mention any.

So I'm still at something of a loss to understand why rivera was so towny to you. You were right that he was town, but I never got your reasons other than you could not find any scumtells.

So, I'm giving you townie points for Jamie pushing you on this, but substracting them for you being evasive with your answer.