M1010 Mini-Mafia

[damo666]

What you still need to learn is that you don't claim VT when you are one.

Xorxes, isn't saying "I am not the tracker" the exact equivalent of claiming VT, at this moment in time?

Yes, but he had softed he was VT way earlier on D1.

You had an early D1 post that I interpreted as softing VT.

[rdrivera2005]

Rdrivera, come on, please tell me how bad I am for suspecting Brainbomb. Please explain to us how he is your top townread.

How are you completely sure he is scum and not the real Tracker? Is this a counter claim?

He no longer wants to lynch worcej.

Why are you asking for counterclaims? Do you think it's a good idea for the real Tracker to counterclaim bb if bb is fakeclaiming?

Of course not. But Brain didn't retract his claim but still you and him are pretty locked on lynching an un--cced PR claimant (ok, it's his 10th claim).

[xorxes]

Xorxes, isn't saying "I am not the tracker" the exact equivalent of claiming VT, at this moment in time?

Yes, but he had softed he was VT way earlier on D1.

You had an early D1 post that I interpreted as softing VT.

It was not intentional if I did that. And you should not be bringing it up in any case.

[damo666]

What is brain up to?

Possibilities:

He is tracker who has tracked a kill: then why the two different votes?

He is tracker who has not (yet) tracked a kill: possible, to trap a scum cc, but dangerous

He is vt: possible, to trap a scum cc

He is scum trying to out the tracker: doubtful scumplay with 3 PRs already dead

Conclusion: brain is probably town

However I wish he hadn't done this.

[xorxes]

How are you completely sure he is scum and not the real Tracker? Is this a counter claim?

He no longer wants to lynch worcej.

Why are you asking for counterclaims? Do you think it's a good idea for the real Tracker to counterclaim bb if bb is fakeclaiming?

Of course not. But Brain didn't retract his claim but still you and him are pretty locked on lynching an un--cced PR claimant (ok, it's his 10th claim).

Don't ask him if he is counterclaiming then. I won't be lynching him if he maintains his claim.

Do you believe his claim?

[damo666]

Yes, but he had softed he was VT way earlier on D1.

You had an early D1 post that I interpreted as softing VT.

It was not intentional if I did that. And you should not be bringing it up in any case.

Touche.

[worcej]

What is brain up to?

Possibilities:

He is tracker who has tracked a kill: then why the two different votes?

He is tracker who has not (yet) tracked a kill: possible, to trap a scum cc, but dangerous

He is vt: possible, to trap a scum cc

He is scum trying to out the tracker: doubtful scumplay with 3 PRs already dead

Conclusion: brain is probably town

However I wish he hadn't done this.

The only time this series of events/thinking can lead to town is in the case of BB...

I am more of the opinion of the underlined one.

[damo666]

No, I don't have anything else on Jamie.

What do you think about my case that an equally strong (or equally weak) case can be made on rivera ("preparing a mislynch") if Jamie is town?

Let me have a look and I'll get back.

I don't understand. Rdr was on bo all day.

[xorxes]

What is brain up to?

Possibilities:

He is tracker who has tracked a kill: then why the two different votes?

He is tracker who has not (yet) tracked a kill: possible, to trap a scum cc, but dangerous

He is vt: possible, to trap a scum cc

He is scum trying to out the tracker: doubtful scumplay with 3 PRs already dead

Conclusion: brain is probably town

However I wish he hadn't done this.

I don't see how the number of dead PRs is relevant. If he thought he was going to be the lynch today, outing a PR is the best way to go. The only doubt is how much pressure on him there was or he may have felt that there was.

[rdrivera2005]

He no longer wants to lynch worcej.

Why are you asking for counterclaims? Do you think it's a good idea for the real Tracker to counterclaim bb if bb is fakeclaiming?

Of course not. But Brain didn't retract his claim but still you and him are pretty locked on lynching an un--cced PR claimant (ok, it's his 10th claim).

Don't ask him if he is counterclaiming then. I won't be lynching him if he maintains his claim.

Do you believe his claim?

No. Worcej reaction and he voting you makes his claim really hard to believe.

[xorxes]

What do you think about my case that an equally strong (or equally weak) case can be made on rivera ("preparing a mislynch") if Jamie is town?

Let me have a look and I'll get back.

I don't understand. Rdr was on bo all day.

Yes, but after Bunny flipped he made the case that Jamie might have changed from bo to Bunny in order to keep bo alive as a viable mislynch. This was before we knew bo was town. So it could be argued that rivera was preparing a case on Jamie to use after bo flipped.

[Jamiet99uk]

What is brain up to?

Possibilities:

He is tracker who has tracked a kill: then why the two different votes?

He is tracker who has not (yet) tracked a kill: possible, to trap a scum cc, but dangerous

He is vt: possible, to trap a scum cc

He is scum trying to out the tracker: doubtful scumplay with 3 PRs already dead

Conclusion: brain is probably town

However I wish he hadn't done this.

Why would scum feel the need to fake-counter-claim in this situation?

[damo666]

I could be wrong, but I doubt there were two scum on your wagon.

I'd be amazed if there were none so on that basis at least 1 of Jamie/Fox/worcej must be scum.

If emc is one, it wouldn't be so amazing. It would have been awkward for him to vote for you as scum the way the wagons were. bo was the safe place to be.

That's assuming you are town. If you are scum, there's no reason to assume someone was bussing. But I suppose that's a conversation to have with someone else.

We now know emc was town so added weight to the theory that at least one of Jamie/Fox/worcej is scum

[xorxes]

What is brain up to?

Possibilities:

He is tracker who has tracked a kill: then why the two different votes?

He is tracker who has not (yet) tracked a kill: possible, to trap a scum cc, but dangerous

He is vt: possible, to trap a scum cc

He is scum trying to out the tracker: doubtful scumplay with 3 PRs already dead

Conclusion: brain is probably town

However I wish he hadn't done this.

Why would scum feel the need to fake-counter-claim in this situation?

Only in the extremely unlikely scenario that brain guessed correctly that worcej was scum and he was the one doing the kill. Nobody in their right mind would gamble like this, but it's brainbomb, so we can't completely discount that possibility.

[damo666]

What is brain up to?

Possibilities:

He is tracker who has tracked a kill: then why the two different votes?

He is tracker who has not (yet) tracked a kill: possible, to trap a scum cc, but dangerous

He is vt: possible, to trap a scum cc

He is scum trying to out the tracker: doubtful scumplay with 3 PRs already dead

Conclusion: brain is probably town

However I wish he hadn't done this.

Why would scum feel the need to fake-counter-claim in this situation?

If brain happened to guess correctly

[damo666]

Let me have a look and I'll get back.

I don't understand. Rdr was on bo all day.

Yes, but after Bunny flipped he made the case that Jamie might have changed from bo to Bunny in order to keep bo alive as a viable mislynch. This was before we knew bo was town. So it could be argued that rivera was preparing a case on Jamie to use after bo flipped.

a bit straw clutching

[xorxes]

I'd be amazed if there were none so on that basis at least 1 of Jamie/Fox/worcej must be scum.

If emc is one, it wouldn't be so amazing. It would have been awkward for him to vote for you as scum the way the wagons were. bo was the safe place to be.

That's assuming you are town. If you are scum, there's no reason to assume someone was bussing. But I suppose that's a conversation to have with someone else.

We now know emc was town so added weight to the theory that at least one of Jamie/Fox/worcej is scum

Unless they killed him to add weight to that theory, but I suppose if that's the case they must have been paying extremely close attention to that conversation.

[xorxes]

I don't understand. Rdr was on bo all day.

Yes, but after Bunny flipped he made the case that Jamie might have changed from bo to Bunny in order to keep bo alive as a viable mislynch. This was before we knew bo was town. So it could be argued that rivera was preparing a case on Jamie to use after bo flipped.

a bit straw clutching

What is? That Jamie knew bo was town, or that rivera knew it?

[damo666]

I know some of you won't like or appreciate this but it's time for one of my theory posts:

In the following I have assumed rdr is town and eliminated some scum pairings that I deem as unlikely.

b=brain z = bozo rest are obvious

Possible scumteams

b f j
b f x
b j s
b j z
b j x
b s z
b s x
b z x
f j w
f j x
f w x
j s w
j s z
j s x
j w x
j z x
s w x
s z x

If anyone can highlight a reason that any particular scumteam is highly unlikely please do so in order that it may be eliminated. Don't bother if you're a member of said team though!

Team membership frequency:

10 j
7 b s
6 z
5 f w

So ##vote Jamie

I am willing to lynch Jamie, brain, Sarah or Fox*

* despite him only appearing in 5 teams

If my 'at least one of j f w' theory is correct we can eliminate bsz bsx bzx szx

The revised frequency list is then:

10 j
7 x
5 f w
4 b s
z 3

P.S. I omitted x from previous frequency list

[damo666]

Yes, but after Bunny flipped he made the case that Jamie might have changed from bo to Bunny in order to keep bo alive as a viable mislynch. This was before we knew bo was town. So it could be argued that rivera was preparing a case on Jamie to use after bo flipped.

a bit straw clutching

What is? That Jamie knew bo was town, or that rivera knew it?

I mean the case[s] are weak