M1010 Mini-Mafia

[xorxes]

I want to say the scumteam is Bunny-kgray-brain, but half the players have not posted yet, so I'll refrain.

I estimate the odds against this being correct is 164-1.

Actually it's a calculation based on an assumption rather than an estimate.

If I add another assumption it's 119-1.

Another refuses it to 35-1.

Any yet another as low as 6-1.

Bunny, since your a mathematician - can you start pointing out if damo is correct or full of shit when he does this?

@worcej, a bit of a random question here, but I was reading your iso and this occured to me:

In the animal game, you were exceedingly confident in you probability calculations, when we were arguing whether to lynch Chaqa the cow or not. I remember because I thought you were completely wrong that time. What changed from then that you were here willing to delegate that task to Bunny instead of doing it yourself?

[Foxcastle]

I actually townlean Bozo here, while I always find Bozo hard to read* because BozotheRelentlessInquisitor comes slightly more to the fore as town, I think. He asks a great many detailed, carefully constructed questions, sometimes catches scum and is sometimes wrong, tunnels somewhat, and is prone to confirmation bias once he's decided a target is scum, which makes it hard for him to change his mind. We're seeing all of that here.


* Yes I know that's quite hedgy. Bite me.

I agree with this. I think Bozo is more likely to be flailing town; if he were scum, I would expect him to keep his options a little more open, to be less tunnely, and to be playing a lot tighter.

[Foxcastle]

Anyone thinking that Brainbomb is not being chaotic this game is looking at a different game to the one that I'm playing in.

He is being chaotic. Which is not unusual for the long-term average of Brainbomb, but is a change from his most recent couple games where he was less chaotic.

[damo666]

Anyone thinking that Brainbomb is not being chaotic this game is looking at a different game to the one that I'm playing in.

He is being chaotic. Which is not unusual for the long-term average of Brainbomb, but is a change from his most recent couple games where he was less chaotic.

The volatility of brain's chaoticness is intrisic to his chaoticness.

[xorxes]

Anyone thinking that Brainbomb is not being chaotic this game is looking at a different game to the one that I'm playing in.

He is being chaotic. Which is not unusual for the long-term average of Brainbomb, but is a change from his most recent couple games where he was less chaotic.

The volatility of brain's chaoticness is intrisic to his chaoticness.

He's like a fractal.

[Jamiet99uk]

He's like something beginning with "F", I'll agree to that.

[xorxes]

Bleh, I obviously meant SarahK. I assume the overlapping Ks tripped me up.

Fine. I confress. Bo and Kgray and I are scum together. Game over.

GG KTHX NORM

What does NORM stand for?

[Foxcastle]

Anyone thinking that Brainbomb is not being chaotic this game is looking at a different game to the one that I'm playing in.

He is being chaotic. Which is not unusual for the long-term average of Brainbomb, but is a change from his most recent couple games where he was less chaotic.

The volatility of brain's chaoticness is intrisic to his chaoticness.

Do you think this is a regression to the mean, or do you think this a local maxima that indicates something relevant to this game?

[damo666]

He is being chaotic. Which is not unusual for the long-term average of Brainbomb, but is a change from his most recent couple games where he was less chaotic.

The volatility of brain's chaoticness is intrisic to his chaoticness.

Do you think this is a regression to the mean, or do you think this a local maxima that indicates something relevant to this game?

Neither

[Foxcastle]

Town to scum:

Jamiet
Xorxes
Worcej
EMC
Rdrivera
SarahK
Bozo
Brainbomb
Damo

Problem being, I don't think Bozo is scum. So it's probably Damo, Brainbomb, and let's just take a wild stab at Worcej or SarahK.

[damo666]

Town to scum

rdr
Xorxes
Bozo
emc
worcej
Sarah
Jamie
Fox
brain

no great confidence in this though

[xorxes]

Town to scum

rdr
Xorxes
Bozo
emc
worcej
Sarah
Jamie
Fox
brain

no great confidence in this though

I think rivera could be town, but is there something in particular that makes him so towny?

[rdrivera2005]

If I die lynch Xorxes.

[Foxcastle]

Please Hold. Phase is ended.

[Chaqa]

Processing now. Please hold

[Chaqa]

e.m.c^42 has died! He was the Doctor!

You may post.

[Foxcastle]

What. The Fuck. are the recent scumteams on that's letting them hit PRs like this?

[rdrivera2005]

Scum is in a pretty solid run.

[damo666]

What. The Fuck. are the recent scumteams on that's letting them hit PRs like this?

Genuine or fake?

RIP Albert

[Jamiet99uk]

Wow. R.I.P. , Dr. E.M.C.

I guess that actually gives a decent explanation, this time, for him being so low-impact and under-the-radar. I assume he was actually trying to lie a little low. Damn.