M1010 Mini-Mafia

[rdrivera2005]

Don't worry. As soon as rivera starts posting I will be compelled to scumread him and then I will need to drop someone from my first guess.

This is the first non joke post I read in this thread.

You discounted everything I wrote as jokey? Or did you read none of them?

I read everything, took me some time to start posting because I need to catch up.

Just liked Xorxes post about always scumreading me independently of our alignments. And I discounted your posts.

[BunnyGo]

IN THE EVENT THE VENGEFUL DIES

Are you willing to be his kill today
My answer is yes

please answer this question all

Normally it's bozo asking questions with no apparent point. But since you asked: yes.

Why? How this makes any sense?

I don't understand your incredulity here. It makes as much sense as your answer, right?

[Jamiet99uk]

Hello friends.

I have caught up since my last post and I have a few observations to make.

First of all, it appears we have town Xorxes on our side. Rejoice! I hope he catches some scum while he lives.

[Jamiet99uk]

I want to say the scumteam is Bunny-kgray-brain, but half the players have not posted yet, so I'll refrain.

I'm curious about your instincts here, Xorxes. Bunny is sure posting a lot but what in particular caught your attention about Kgray and Brainbomb?

[Jamiet99uk]

Why are you doing this?

Why do you think I'm doing it?

Well...I considered this for a while. I think you're seeing how much you can provoke jamie. There are two reasons for this, one is towny, and one is scummy:

1) Town!Xorxes knows how jamie responds to prods and has a read on him
2) Scum!Xorxes knows jamie is good for distracting town and getting heat off of him

This is a silly comment, Bunny. Sure, some things rile me up. People lying, people refusing to vote, people lurking, people making baseless accusations, people endangering PRs or making needless claims, people being Balki or Damo. All of those things might annoy me.

People talking about pizza is not something that is likely to trigger a Jamiet99uk meltdown. Come on now.

[Jamiet99uk]

But as you well know, scum!xorxes likes to buddy Jamie, not provoke him.

I can confirm the accuracy of this statement. That is what he does.

[Jamiet99uk]

Im not playing very effortful I suppose.
thats not an attack scum would bother making at me.

I just liked bo tone and xorxes non weird attitude

Tell us about the "weird attitude" that you would expect scum Xorxes to have?

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm going to go to sleep.

Oh well hopefully by the time I wake up and check back here there will be something more interesting to talk about.

OK, I'm going now.

Hopefully there's something interesting to read in the morning.

Xorxes, did you consciously (or subconsciously?) copy my post, or is this just a coincidence?

[Jamiet99uk]

IN THE EVENT THE VENGEFUL DIES

Are you willing to be his kill today
My answer is yes

please answer this question all

What is the point of this question?

The Vengeful is town. His/her only power is to be able to hit a revenge kill. That benefits town if it hits scum. If it hits town, on the same night there is a successful NK, then three townies have died in exchange for zero Mafia deaths.

If you are town, why on Earth would you be happy with that happening?

Is this some kind of WIFOM scum double-bluff logic, "if I say I want the Vengeful to target me, then he will assume I am a VT so he won't kill me"??

Suicide pact? Sure! You go first.

[Jamiet99uk]

Tryhard Bungo, what ever happened to hating Day 1?

I hate to agree with EMC but you do get the impression BunnyGo is tryharding today.

[Jamiet99uk]

<snip Gettysburg address>

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet…

<snip lorem itsum>

Goodnight Brainbomb.

What are you getting your doctorate in?

Law, why do you ask?

Also Bunny since we're talking academicals, are you really a trained research mathematician? If you are, what do you think about Damo's fondness for using probabilities? Does he generally get his numbers right?

[damo666]

I can read Xorxes like a book (as I so ably proved last game).

Xorxes is town.

Bunny seems to have mixamatosis.

Damn man! You found another species jumping virus for me to me scared of? And then you punned on it? How long have you been holding that very specific rabbit disease in your chamber?

It's been in Bio Safe Level 4 for quite some time.

[damo666]

I want to say the scumteam is Bunny-kgray-brain, but half the players have not posted yet, so I'll refrain.

I estimate the odds against this being correct is 164-1.

Actually it's a calculation based on an assumption rather than an estimate.

If I add another assumption it's 119-1.

Another refuses it to 35-1.

Any yet another as low as 6-1.

These numbers are worth 27.54 rounded to the nearest hundredth.

in carrots?

[damo666]

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet…

<snip lorem itsum>

Goodnight Brainbomb.

What are you getting your doctorate in?

Law, why do you ask?

Also Bunny since we're talking academicals, are you really a trained research mathematician? If you are, what do you think about Damo's fondness for using probabilities? Does he generally get his numbers right?

The numbers are right (unless I make a crass error). My assumptions or guesses that the numbers depend on may be wrong but the numbers are right.

For example the 164-1 odds I quoted are based on the assumption that Xorxes is town and the knowledge that I am town. This leaves a population of 11. There are 165 possible distinct groupings of 3 from these 11 leading to the odds quoted of 164-1.

The successive assumptions I made for the lower odds were: Bozo town, brain scum, Bunny scum.

[BunnyGo]

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet…

<snip lorem itsum>

Goodnight Brainbomb.

What are you getting your doctorate in?

Law, why do you ask?

Also Bunny since we're talking academicals, are you really a trained research mathematician? If you are, what do you think about Damo's fondness for using probabilities? Does he generally get his numbers right?

I really am. I recently left academia (after a 15 year career). Largely I think it's unhelpful? There's a talk I once saw by Peter Winkler where he describes the following to explain why using probabilities like that is useless:

Two philosophers are arguing about the probability that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. Then they find a magic lamp and a genie. They rub the lamp and ask the genie "Settle this debate for us. What is the probability that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe?" The genie replies, "you want to know if there is intelligent life? I can tell you that." "No, no," they reply, "not whether there is or not, but what the probability is."

The point being, probability of things that "are or aren't" is a weird thing to say. It depends on very specific assumptions of knowledge and "what is random, and what random means."

The talk went on from there to discuss the Sleeping Beauty problem, which is a wonderful example of this debate.

[Jamiet99uk]

For example the 164-1 odds I quoted are based on the assumption that Xorxes is town and the knowledge that I am town.

That worked well for you last time, didn't it?

[Foxcastle]

So, @kgray, I'm curious how you want to approach this game?

I plan to approach it pretty similarly to last game, but hopefully learning from some of my mistakes.

One thing I want to do more of is pushing my "gut" reads. I felt like you were scum for most of last game, but I couldn't really come up with tangible evidence for it even when you were misconstruing everything I was saying. You're not going to get away with that this game

Actually overall I'll probably try to rely less on finding "tangible evidence." A lot of my scumreads last game (rdr, Fox, Tem and damo) turned out to be based on what I'd consider "tangible evidence" but they all turned out to be town.

Yeah, town can look scummy because they're not as worried about trying to be perfectly townie. Scum are trying to look perfectly townie, and often succeed pretty well.

[Foxcastle]

I plan to approach it pretty similarly to last game, but hopefully learning from some of my mistakes.

One thing I want to do more of is pushing my "gut" reads. I felt like you were scum for most of last game, but I couldn't really come up with tangible evidence for it even when you were misconstruing everything I was saying. You're not going to get away with that this game

Actually overall I'll probably try to rely less on finding "tangible evidence." A lot of my scumreads last game (rdr, Fox, Tem and damo) turned out to be based on what I'd consider "tangible evidence" but they all turned out to be town.

Yeah, town can look scummy because they're not as worried about trying to be perfectly townie. Scum are trying to look perfectly townie, and often succeed pretty well.

I guess Flum isn't playing this game, but the whole "I would never do that as scum" that he claimed only scum deployed actually came from townies last game...

[Foxcastle]

I plan to approach it pretty similarly to last game, but hopefully learning from some of my mistakes.

One thing I want to do more of is pushing my "gut" reads. I felt like you were scum for most of last game, but I couldn't really come up with tangible evidence for it even when you were misconstruing everything I was saying. You're not going to get away with that this game

Actually overall I'll probably try to rely less on finding "tangible evidence." A lot of my scumreads last game (rdr, Fox, Tem and damo) turned out to be based on what I'd consider "tangible evidence" but they all turned out to be town.

I think that's a mistake. Look for the *correct* tangible evidence. Not necessarily "scum slips" or "inconsistency" but the evidence that suggests someone is misleading you with their writing.

Except, town is mostly wrong, so often scum aren't misleading you, they're reinforcing your errors...

[damo666]

Why probabalities ARE relevant.

For somebody outside the game with zero knowledge of player's alignments guessing the scum team would be an ideal betting market on which odds could be quoted against all possible teams (please note I am not advocating such a market). Now odds are simply a way of representing probabilty, the probabilty of the guess being correct.

From a townsperson's pov with the extra knowledge of one's own alignment the odds (probability) can be refined.

This is why I find such representation useful (to me anyway, notwithstanding last game my assumptions were 100% wrong).