M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[BunnyGo]

@Bunny, I get the urge to want to lynch between damo and I. However, please consider something from my perspective: I very, very strongly believe that damo and xorxes are a scum pair. However, it is technically possible that xorxes is scum without damo being scum. If D6 was TvT, I could still see scum-xorxes playing this way. I do not see how xorxes could be town regardless of damo's alignment.

I'm very willing to lynch damo today. But I think xorxes is a better choice.

See, this is what I've been thinking about: order of choice.

We are walking through a minefield of flips, and knowing a clear step makes future knowledge easier to find.

KNOWING that Damo is scum gives different intel than assuming. Likewise KNOWING that Xorxes is scum gives different intel than assuming. We also get intel based on the votes today in each lynch. (KNOWING you are scum changes things too...hence why I'm voting you if Damo isn't possible)

I have to look at town not losing today. That doesn't come from having more choices, it come from town consolidating. We succeed today, we move to tomorrow. But at no point can we have town on different wagons.

That's the next key. We win today. We see the wagon. We learn for tomorrow. I just want to win today, and from my POV that's you vs damo. I think damo is likely scummier, that's why I switched. But if he's not an option, it's you. I have to assume that scum is moving it off damo for some reason. Maybe you're town and you've now given them a chance for T v T today? Maybe several town have screwed this up? But I don't see a reason for town to get overly clever today. It may work, but I don't see the point. Maybe you're scum? and a scum buddy from Damo's wagon moved onto Xorxes?

Yes, Xorxes/Damo makes a nice scum pair, but order of lynching matters.

To make this clearer ##Vote kgray. I hope she's flailing around at random town that she can set up. I don't exactly know why she's giving up on Damo, but if she's scum it's an interesting play.

Now, I'm really tired. But I think this is correct. Explain to me with small words why you think town should be divided among many wagons? I'll read it and reconsider in the morning.

[BunnyGo]

@Bunny, I get the urge to want to lynch between damo and I. However, please consider something from my perspective: I very, very strongly believe that damo and xorxes are a scum pair. However, it is technically possible that xorxes is scum without damo being scum. If D6 was TvT, I could still see scum-xorxes playing this way. I do not see how xorxes could be town regardless of damo's alignment.

I'm very willing to lynch damo today. But I think xorxes is a better choice.

One last thought, since I can't put this down. I don't want to consider this from your pov. I want my pov.

Let's see if Xorxes is scum and Damo isn't. What happened?:

He's bussing you. That gets him HUUUGE Cover. He was shocked I didn't come back to you. But that's it.

Now you two set up this switch during the night (let's buss each other hehe).

[kgray]

@Bunny, I get the urge to want to lynch between damo and I. However, please consider something from my perspective: I very, very strongly believe that damo and xorxes are a scum pair. However, it is technically possible that xorxes is scum without damo being scum. If D6 was TvT, I could still see scum-xorxes playing this way. I do not see how xorxes could be town regardless of damo's alignment.

I'm very willing to lynch damo today. But I think xorxes is a better choice.

See, this is what I've been thinking about: order of choice.

We are walking through a minefield of flips, and knowing a clear step makes future knowledge easier to find.

KNOWING that Damo is scum gives different intel than assuming. Likewise KNOWING that Xorxes is scum gives different intel than assuming. We also get intel based on the votes today in each lynch. (KNOWING you are scum changes things too...hence why I'm voting you if Damo isn't possible)

I have to look at town not losing today. That doesn't come from having more choices, it come from town consolidating. We succeed today, we move to tomorrow. But at no point can we have town on different wagons.

That's the next key. We win today. We see the wagon. We learn for tomorrow. I just want to win today, and from my POV that's you vs damo. I think damo is likely scummier, that's why I switched. But if he's not an option, it's you. I have to assume that scum is moving it off damo for some reason. Maybe you're town and you've now given them a chance for T v T today? Maybe several town have screwed this up? But I don't see a reason for town to get overly clever today. It may work, but I don't see the point. Maybe you're scum? and a scum buddy from Damo's wagon moved onto Xorxes?

Yes, Xorxes/Damo makes a nice scum pair, but order of lynching matters.

To make this clearer ##Vote kgray. I hope she's flailing around at random town that she can set up. I don't exactly know why she's giving up on Damo, but if she's scum it's an interesting play.

Now, I'm really tired. But I think this is correct. Explain to me with small words why you think town should be divided among many wagons? I'll read it and reconsider in the morning.

I absolutely do not think town should be divided among many wagons. In fact, when you voted for damo you were the only person on that wagon. So part of why I was asking you to consider voting for xorxes was because I agree, town needs to consolidate.

I am not giving up on damo. I have said I am very willing to lynch him. I simply also think that xorxes is almost definitely scum too. That does not at all mean I do not think damo is scum.

The order of lynching does matter, but it is more important to lynch scum than to lynch one of damo or I. If we lynch town, it's game over. I think it would be very, very difficult to believe that damo and I could both be scum, so voting for me if there's no damo wagon makes very little sense to me.

[kgray]

To make this clearer ##Vote kgray. I hope she's flailing around at random town that she can set up. I don't exactly know why she's giving up on Damo, but if she's scum it's an interesting play.

As I have said, I am not giving up on damo. But could you please explain how it would make any sense at all for me to give up on damo if I'm scum? It's not like I followed the votes to xorxes, I was the first to vote him today. That move wouldn't just be "interesting," it would make absolutely no sense.

[damo666]

I do not agree that we are down to six pairs, so I am not going to rank them. It is possible that you and kgray are both scum, playing to get a mislynch another day. Or, you could be scum instead of kgray. It is also not impossible that you and kgray are both town, although I think that is unlikely.

Surely SS is as unlikely as TT. If it were SS I'd have gone for the win!

What are you talking about? Do you think it might have been SS from yPOV as you say?

See #4827

[damo666]

BunnyGo has not answered this question yet. Is anyone else concerned that BunnyGo's reason for changing his vote from kgray to damo does not make sense?

I can think of reasons but yes let's hear from soberBunny (or drunkBunny)

I'm here. I'm exhausted, but I'm here. Did my answer suffice for you?

Sorry, what answer?

[brainbomb]

Janet stared up at lights passing by. her hands were bound. Her face felt numb.

Where are you taking me? she asked.

the Italian in the passengers seat laughed.
"Home kid, were going home".

Janet did not understand. she cried to herself as a familiar song played on the radio.

Jocko says "Yes" and I believe him
When we talk about the things I say
She hasn't got the faith or the guts to leave him
When they're standing in each other's way
You're tripping back now to places you've been to
You wonder what you're gonna find
You know you've been wrong but it won't be long
Before you leave 'em all far behind

'Cause it's the new mother nature taking over
It's the new splendid lady come to call
It's the new mother nature taking over
She's gettin' us all
She's gettin' us all




Vote Count Day 7

kgray (4) damo666 bozotheclown xorxes BunnyGo
xorxes (3) kgray Jamiet99uk Balki Bartokomous

End-votes (0/7): -


Kgray is scheduled to be lynched
11.5 hours remain

[bozotheclown]

Sure, it is possible, but when I talk about bussing I am referring to voting for a scum teammate at anytime, not just ending on a teammate. I have never seen xorxes start a wagon on a scum teammate, but until M46 I do not think I had seen xorxes bus at all. However, if he is scum, I think it is more likely he is patient zero.

Do you think he's more likely PZ if he's scum because of his vote for bob or because of how the D6 wagons ended up?

his vote for Bob

[bozotheclown]

@Bunny, I get the urge to want to lynch between damo and I. However, please consider something from my perspective: I very, very strongly believe that damo and xorxes are a scum pair. However, it is technically possible that xorxes is scum without damo being scum. If D6 was TvT, I could still see scum-xorxes playing this way. I do not see how xorxes could be town regardless of damo's alignment.

I'm very willing to lynch damo today. But I think xorxes is a better choice.

I don't like that you concluded this when you and Jamie were the only ones voting for damo and Jamie had previously said he would prefer to lynch xorxes. Did Jamie have any influence on your decision that xorxes is a better lynch than damo?

[bozotheclown]

I was thinking these posts. They came up on reread.

<snip.
Fox you still made no impression on me. And none on Drunk Bunny (TM). Why is that? I read your posts. I see you. But I never remember you. It’s like you have a Somebody Else’s Problem field around you. It’s disconcerting.

Kgray still seems like an eager and useful noob town.

Damo is starting to bother me. Why did he try to weirdly save Chaq?

I could vote for Chaq. I could vote for Damo. I could vote for Balki.

@kgray having read your ISO on me I'm confused about my own alignment lol.

I am floundering which your post kind of proves.

However, worcej flipping town as I suspected he would does make my Flum/emc hypothesis kind of interesting.

Another hypothesis: There are 2 scum who knew Bob's alignment so most unlikely (imo) that they were both bussing Bob therfore (from MPOV) there must be AT LEAST ONE SCUM in {rdr, Jamie, kgray, fox, Chaqa, Damo}

Of these I townread Jamie Fox and kgray (in that order).

##vote rdr

Jesus christ, Damo. At least have the courtesy to include yourself in the list. I've corrected it above, and it makes you look really sketchy.

Then Chaq jumps back to EMC and says he scum reads Bob while doing so. I *really* don't like that move.

It's hedgy, tries to play all angles, but makes movement to EMC. Then Damo says "1 more switch needed".

Damo is a bad lynch idea today.

EMC or Balki should be the lynch.

I’ve changed my mind about Balki today. I want Town to stop tripping over feet and letting scum get away with stuff. I’ll join you on EMC if that’s more viable than Damo.

If someone has time to dig into kgray, and make a similarly compelling case, I’d consider that too.

These posts are all from before D5, when you voted for kgray all day. Also, are you saying that you "finished rereading" all of these posts in the 2 minutes between the following posts from D6:

Fine, ##VOTE Kgray.

Why? Just Bozo's weak "case" ?

If you haven't read my many posts on kgray, then I'm not repeating them here for you.

OK, just finished rereading my own previous rereads on damo. I don't know how I forgot all that. Fine kgray, hat tip to you if you're scum. ##vote Damo

[bozotheclown]

The switch from damo to xorxes concerns me, it makes a kgray/damo scum team more likely, which would explain the tie D6. In any case, it is likely the scum are not all on the same wagon, which means the scum have control over the lynch with the voting at 4-3. The vote should be 6-1 at EOD for us to maximize our chance of lynching scum.

[xorxes]

Also, I'd love it if you could point out where you explain your other scumreads. I see that you said this:

kgray > Balki > Bunny > Jamie > bozo > damo

And yet you provided no explanations. Why do you think Balki is scum? Is it just because you think I am, and it's your POE? Why Bunny over Jamie?

I think I have explained all my thinking quite clearly (and you had no trouble following my thinking before), but here is a summary:

The only thing Balki has done all game is tunnel on Fox with a carbon-copy case he used on him when he was scum in a previous game. He was strongly townreading me until today, when he suddenly decided I lack passion, which is not even something he came up with himself but just repeating what Bunny said. I have no idea what he thinks of anyone else, do you? Every time he is asked something he turns the question around and says he will respond later.

Bunny over Jamie because of his sudden vote for damo over you when he had been scumreading you most of that day. The only hope is that it was really because he was undecided. He wanted a no-lynch and he got one, so there's that, but I'm not confident that he won't have a "change of heart" again at EOD today and move to you.

Jamiet was very town Jamiet in the first part of the game. He has disappeared now. He is usually an active participant as he was at the beginning, but he has run out of steam. If he is town and stays on me, it's game over because that means Bunny (or bozo?) will vote for me at the end.

You over damo I already explained. I have played a lot with damo and I can tell when he is scum. Could I be wrong? Yes, but I don't think so. You have been townreading me all game and now you decided that I'm scum today because you read another game and find me different. So not because of anything I did this game.

[BunnyGo]

The switch from damo to xorxes concerns me, it makes a kgray/damo scum team more likely, which would explain the tie D6. In any case, it is likely the scum are not all on the same wagon, which means the scum have control over the lynch with the voting at 4-3. The vote should be 6-1 at EOD for us to maximize our chance of lynching scum.

This

[xorxes]

4. I am townreading Kgray less strongly than I was. Some of Kgray's responses to Damo today are.... not great. I'll explain in due course.

@Jamie, if you're town you need to be here before EOD to explain this.

[damo666]

Jamie is key.

If he is scum I think we're fine. If he is town he needs to see the light.

Balki being scum is nigh on transparent.

I'm reading Bunny as more town than Jamie so am hopeful we have the game wrapped up.

It would appear that in the scum night chat they for some reason thought they had a better chance of lynching Xorxes than lynching me.

[xorxes]

Jamie is key.

If he is scum I think we're fine. If he is town he needs to see the light.

Balki being scum is nigh on transparent.

I'm reading Bunny as more town than Jamie so am hopeful we have the game wrapped up.

It would appear that in the scum night chat they for some reason thought they had a better chance of lynching Xorxes than lynching me.

Yes. Let's see what Jamie has to say when he wakes up.

[damo666]

Jamie is key.

If he is scum I think we're fine. If he is town he needs to see the light.

Balki being scum is nigh on transparent.

I'm reading Bunny as more town than Jamie so am hopeful we have the game wrapped up.

It would appear that in the scum night chat they for some reason thought they had a better chance of lynching Xorxes than lynching me.

Yes. Let's see what Jamie has to say when he wakes up.

Blimey he must have drunk the fridge dry.

[Jamiet99uk]

4. I am townreading Kgray less strongly than I was. Some of Kgray's responses to Damo today are.... not great. I'll explain in due course.

@Jamie, if you're town you need to be here before EOD to explain this.

And I shall.

[Jamiet99uk]

You disrespectful scrubs.

I had two beers but they were the first alcohol in a week and my alcohol tolerance has quickly diminished so actually made me quite tipsy!

I have been awake for a couple of hours. I rose at 11am. Saturday is the only day I get a lie-in and the Covid-19 lockdown has not changed that. Honestly my work is even busier than usual so I'm super glad it's the weekend. I was very disengaged yesterday despite posting a few times, just because I was legit busy.

There's 5.5 hours to go and apparently you are all relying on me to solve the game. That's bad because my reads are never great. However, I will do my best to give as much input as I can. I will seek to make some serious posts soon, since I want to give people time to react and, if necessary, answer any questions I may have.

I don't like Damo saying I am "key" yet everything else in that post is based on a strong assumption that I am scum. Which. I. Am. Not.

[Jamiet99uk]

Here's another thing about Damo while I get ready to save the day (or not).

I really, really, really dislike the way Damo has redefined the term "scum" for his own purposes, in this game, to mean specifically "A Mafia who has access to the QT" and therefore whenever he says someone is "not scum" he could still be accusing that person of being the Patient Zero.

I wonder if he has done that on purpose to make his Iso more confusing because every time you read him saying "scum" or "not scum" he has decided to give those common terms his own special, different, meaning.

Patient Zero is aligned with the Mafia, Damo. They are therefore scum and your twisting of that terminology bothers me.