M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[damo666]

Please explain this comment.

How is it impossible for Xorxes to be one of the non-PZ scum?

Because both nonPZscum were voting me. Nothing else makes sense.

That is correct if you are town.

I do not know if you are town.

Thus, it is most certainly not impossible for Xorxes to be one of the non-PZ scum, from my perspective.

but not with me

[Jamiet99uk]

Because both nonPZscum were voting me. Nothing else makes sense.

That is correct if you are town.

I do not know if you are town.

Thus, it is most certainly not impossible for Xorxes to be one of the non-PZ scum, from my perspective.

but not with me

Unless there's some hard-ass bussing going on, but that seems moderately unlikely, I accept.

[Jamiet99uk]

I will re-appraise the previous EoD in detail as soon as I can. Give me a few hours to find the time, though. I need to eat and exercise.

[damo666]

And, Damo, if you are like 100% convinced I am scum no matter what, tell me that too. Because then I don't have to invest my time into trying to figure your alignment for sure. I can just vote for you, and hope there is a next day. If you're town, and you're convinced I'm scum, Town loses. That's it. If you're scum, then we can just get on to Day whatever and find your team.

Yup. And here we have this:

@damo will you assume, just for a bit, that I'm town? Who do you think the scumteam is in that case?

If you are town scum didn't take their opportunity to win the game. I am not wasting my time on such an hypothesis.

If it turns out to be the case there will be an interesting post game debate as to whether inaction can constitute playing against one's wincon.

This is absolute nonsense.

Damo what if PZ doesn't know either of our alignments, and there was one nonPZ scum on each of us, and they didn't want to cross post their vote change? Because then it would still have been a tie and we'd have both of them?

Seriously, everyone, how can you think Damo is town when he constantly refuses to consider other options? How does that possibly come from a town mindset??

No chance of scum on different wagons

[kgray]

And, Damo, if you are like 100% convinced I am scum no matter what, tell me that too. Because then I don't have to invest my time into trying to figure your alignment for sure. I can just vote for you, and hope there is a next day. If you're town, and you're convinced I'm scum, Town loses. That's it. If you're scum, then we can just get on to Day whatever and find your team.

Yup. And here we have this:

If you are town scum didn't take their opportunity to win the game. I am not wasting my time on such an hypothesis.

If it turns out to be the case there will be an interesting post game debate as to whether inaction can constitute playing against one's wincon.

This is absolute nonsense.

Damo what if PZ doesn't know either of our alignments, and there was one nonPZ scum on each of us, and they didn't want to cross post their vote change? Because then it would still have been a tie and we'd have both of them?

Seriously, everyone, how can you think Damo is town when he constantly refuses to consider other options? How does that possibly come from a town mindset??

No chance of scum on different wagons

Why not? Why is there literally no chance?

I'm sorry if I'm just nitpicking at your posts. I will try to stop that. But please, can you explain why you think there is no chance AT ALL that the 2 nonPZ scum were on different wagons?

[damo666]

Damo how do you go from this:

Assuming random scanning ( I know it's not random but for the sake of argument allow me this) the chance of PZ having scanned me or kgray is 62%. If they haven't (38%) then roughly speaking they could have been on either wagon.

to this:

PZ on D6 was probably on me but if on kgray hadn't investigated me or kgray (possible, but less than 20% chance).

Dude just admit you're making these numbers up.

62+38/2 =81
100-81 = 19
19 < 20

[damo666]

Yup. And here we have this:



This is absolute nonsense.

Damo what if PZ doesn't know either of our alignments, and there was one nonPZ scum on each of us, and they didn't want to cross post their vote change? Because then it would still have been a tie and we'd have both of them?

Seriously, everyone, how can you think Damo is town when he constantly refuses to consider other options? How does that possibly come from a town mindset??

No chance of scum on different wagons

Why not? Why is there literally no chance?

I'm sorry if I'm just nitpicking at your posts. I will try to stop that. But please, can you explain why you think there is no chance AT ALL that the 2 nonPZ scum were on different wagons?

Of course it's possible but it would be incredibly stupid and if that is the case and town go on to win I will laugh my socks off.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@kgray, @Jamiet

I have been kind of lumping both Bozo and Bunny together in my mind as town based quite a lot on their Day 3 Bob votes, when they had flexibility to go either way but voted to lynch scum. But, as numbers are dwindling, and especially after neither was the Night Kill last night, I am not so sure.

Can you guys do some thinking about which of those two is more likely scum?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Of course it's possible but it would be incredibly stupid and if that is the case and town go on to win I will laugh my socks off.

Why would it be incredibly stupid?

Let's say that Damo or Kgray is patient zero and the other is town. Where would you expect scum to vote in that scenario? Can't be sure they are on the same wagon. They might decide to be on opposite wagons to hedge their bets. They could win with the flip if town lynches wrong, but they could also set themselves up to win later in the event town gets it right, or ties, and then they can use the bus vote as evidence that one of them is town.

That is not far fetched at all. I think that this day, and yesterday, are stages of the game where bussing happens a lot.

Do you disagree?

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo how do you go from this:

Assuming random scanning ( I know it's not random but for the sake of argument allow me this) the chance of PZ having scanned me or kgray is 62%. If they haven't (38%) then roughly speaking they could have been on either wagon.

to this:

PZ on D6 was probably on me but if on kgray hadn't investigated me or kgray (possible, but less than 20% chance).

Dude just admit you're making these numbers up.

62+38/2 =81
100-81 = 19
19 < 20

Damo.

Please set out, exactly how you arrived at the 62% probability quoted here?

I want to see your working.

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo is asking us to accept that a great many things are certain and a whole lot of other things are impossible.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Damo is asking us to accept that a great many things are certain and a whole lot of other things are impossible.

Yeah, it's not the right mindset. But I am worried he does this stuff as town too.

I sort of skimmed a bunch of Damo town games, and I couldn't find an easy tell. He is playing like Scum!Damo. But I think it's consistent with Town!Damo too, unfortunately. I need to take a closer look at his meta, as that wasn't really the chief thing I was looking for last night.

@Damo, can you speak to this? I am seeing that you speak in absolutes, and you seem to say things are "certain" or "impossible" more than I expect to come from a town mindset. Is this usually how you play as town? Can you give me examples from a Town!Damo game?

@Xorx, @Bozo, I want your thoughts on the above too, as you have both played a lot with Damo, and you both seem to read Damo as town.

[xorxes]

Of course it's possible but it would be incredibly stupid and if that is the case and town go on to win I will laugh my socks off.

Why would it be incredibly stupid?

Let's say that Damo or Kgray is patient zero and the other is town. Where would you expect scum to vote in that scenario? Can't be sure they are on the same wagon. They might decide to be on opposite wagons to hedge their bets. They could win with the flip if town lynches wrong, but they could also set themselves up to win later in the event town gets it right, or ties, and then they can use the bus vote as evidence that one of them is town.

That is not far fetched at all. I think that this day, and yesterday, are stages of the game where bussing happens a lot.

Do you disagree?

If bozo was bussing kgray then he will switch today at EOD and win unless we have enough votes on her.
If you think I was bussing kgray, you are welcome to join me and make sure she is lynched today.
if damo was bussing kgray or viceversa, then it doesn't really matter who of them we lynch.
if Bunny bussed damo, his last minute switch was really pointless unless both kgray and damo are scum. Then the tie is what they wanted.
If Jamie or Balki were bussing damo they could have switched to kgray at the last minute to win.

So I think it is far fetched, yes. If anyone was "bussing" it was either PZ who didn't know better, or it was because both are scum in which case bussing was the only option they had.

In what scenario do you think it is not far fetched?

[kgray]

Of course it's possible but it would be incredibly stupid and if that is the case and town go on to win I will laugh my socks off.

Why would it be incredibly stupid?

Let's say that Damo or Kgray is patient zero and the other is town. Where would you expect scum to vote in that scenario? Can't be sure they are on the same wagon. They might decide to be on opposite wagons to hedge their bets. They could win with the flip if town lynches wrong, but they could also set themselves up to win later in the event town gets it right, or ties, and then they can use the bus vote as evidence that one of them is town.

That is not far fetched at all. I think that this day, and yesterday, are stages of the game where bussing happens a lot.

Do you disagree?

Balki you were pretty adamant earlier that scum wouldn't bus bob D3 because town not catching a scum is such an advantage for the scum team. I'm surprised you're saying that bussing would happen in mylo. Can you walk me though that more?

[xorxes]

Damo is asking us to accept that a great many things are certain and a whole lot of other things are impossible.

Yeah, it's not the right mindset. But I am worried he does this stuff as town too.

I sort of skimmed a bunch of Damo town games, and I couldn't find an easy tell. He is playing like Scum!Damo. But I think it's consistent with Town!Damo too, unfortunately. I need to take a closer look at his meta, as that wasn't really the chief thing I was looking for last night.

@Damo, can you speak to this? I am seeing that you speak in absolutes, and you seem to say things are "certain" or "impossible" more than I expect to come from a town mindset. Is this usually how you play as town? Can you give me examples from a Town!Damo game?

@Xorx, @Bozo, I want your thoughts on the above too, as you have both played a lot with Damo, and you both seem to read Damo as town.

For me the most important point is that he has not cared to expose himself. When he is scum I find he is more timid and tries to fly under the radar.

[damo666]

Of course it's possible but it would be incredibly stupid and if that is the case and town go on to win I will laugh my socks off.

Why would it be incredibly stupid?

Let's say that Damo or Kgray is patient zero and the other is town. Where would you expect scum to vote in that scenario? Can't be sure they are on the same wagon. They might decide to be on opposite wagons to hedge their bets. They could win with the flip if town lynches wrong, but they could also set themselves up to win later in the event town gets it right, or ties, and then they can use the bus vote as evidence that one of them is town.

That is not far fetched at all. I think that this day, and yesterday, are stages of the game where bussing happens a lot.

Do you disagree?

Yes, I disagree

[kgray]

@kgray, @Jamiet

I have been kind of lumping both Bozo and Bunny together in my mind as town based quite a lot on their Day 3 Bob votes, when they had flexibility to go either way but voted to lynch scum. But, as numbers are dwindling, and especially after neither was the Night Kill last night, I am not so sure.

Can you guys do some thinking about which of those two is more likely scum?

Yes, I am looking into both of them. However, from my point of view Bunny is almost definitely not nonPZ scum and I will not be voting for him today.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Of course it's possible but it would be incredibly stupid and if that is the case and town go on to win I will laugh my socks off.

Why would it be incredibly stupid?

Let's say that Damo or Kgray is patient zero and the other is town. Where would you expect scum to vote in that scenario? Can't be sure they are on the same wagon. They might decide to be on opposite wagons to hedge their bets. They could win with the flip if town lynches wrong, but they could also set themselves up to win later in the event town gets it right, or ties, and then they can use the bus vote as evidence that one of them is town.

That is not far fetched at all. I think that this day, and yesterday, are stages of the game where bussing happens a lot.

Do you disagree?

Balki you were pretty adamant earlier that scum wouldn't bus bob D3 because town not catching a scum is such an advantage for the scum team. I'm surprised you're saying that bussing would happen in mylo. Can you walk me though that more?

Yeah, I'll try to explain my thinking on this later on today. I have to do some real work for a bit.

[damo666]

Damo how do you go from this:



to this:



Dude just admit you're making these numbers up.

62+38/2 =81
100-81 = 19
19 < 20

Damo.

Please set out, exactly how you arrived at the 62% probability quoted here?

I want to see your working.

{1 - Product (Ln-1)/Ln} from n=1 to 5 where Ln is the number of players alive at start of night n

[kgray]

I have reread xorxes' ISO, and then I read his ISO from M1009 where he was town, and WOW was he different in that game. He was intense, he got frustrated, he pushed people, he argued his points, he was obviously thinking through people's motivations and looking for scum.... Look at these!

I don't know how else to explain this to you, since I have done it already (I think more than once) and you still don't get it.

I never believed worcej was doing a reaction test.

There was no scum motivation to do a reaction test. He never did a reaction test.

He posted filler. He got caught. He then claimed that what he was doing was a reaction test.

See the scum motivation there? He got caught doing something he should not have been doing. He tried to cover up. Came up with a bullshit reason that looked somewhat plausible at first but really not believable with more examination.

Knowing now that he was town, I still don't believe he was doing a reaction test.

What I now believe is that he posted filler (yes, sometimes town do that too). He got caught. He then claimed what he was doing was a reaction test to save face. He never got himself out of it. I tried to question him and explain, he never did, because he knew there was no rational explanation. The reaction test thing was something he came up with to save face, and he didn't want to admit it. That's what I think now and sorry worcej if I'm misteken. If you really were doing a reaction test you should have at least have tried to explain how you thought it was a good idea, how you implemented it, etc to give us a sense of your town motivation.

If you don't believe me, your problem. But what's more irritating to me is that you don't even seem to understand what I'm saying, not so much that you don't believe me.

This is so ridiculous. Why would scum!bozo lie in such an absurd way? If you didn't get the joke, fine, I can unserstand that, I had to do a double take as well. But once you see it's a joke, you can't possibly call it a lie.

Same thing I told Jamie: If the argument is that he is scum because town!bozo would not joke like that, fine, that's arguable. But if you are arguing that he is scum because he was *lying*, then your argument is bullshit.

No, I couldn't be sure, and I thought bozo was going to be lynched.

What you're saying about me saving Tom makes no sense if you think about it. If I waited for bozo to join me on Tom, it became 4-4 and Tom would never move from bozo to himself, obviously. So how was Tom going to be lynched if I just stayed there?

By making it 4-4 bozo-worcej, I pretty much forced Tom to move back to worcej, thus saving bozo. The only way I had to save bozo was to vote for worcej.

So you can accuse me of saving bozo, but not of trying to save Tom. Should work well for you either way if both of them are scum though.

Like who is this person? And before you anyone thinks I'm cherry picking quotes or something, just skim through this and tell me that this is the same person. xorxes in M1009 had passion, he put in effort, he wasn't afraid to start things. He's not doing that here. I'm pretty sure I'm his only scumread, and that's because of POE. This is nuts. I 100% get the push on him D4, and why the last 5 townies who died scumread him. I think they're right.

##vote xorxes

I still think damo is scum, obviously, and a damo and xorxes as scum partners makes perfect sense. But if damo is somehow town, I still don't see how xorxes can be.