M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[bozotheclown]

CONCLUSIONS FROM THIS LONG BUS RIDE

(1) I find it unlikely that Scum!Xorxes cast that Bob vote for his partner, unless Xorxes is Patient Zero, and didn't know better.

(2) I am doubtful that Damo sincerely believes that Xorxes does not bus. But I want Damo (or anyone else) to tell me if that is common conventional wisdom around here. Please tell me.

In a recent game (M1009) I looked for cases of xorxes bussing to determine how likely he was bussing in that game, and did come across the case where he bussed in M42. In that game, MoscowFleet was already under significant suspicion, so I do not think he has ever bussed a teammate by starting a wagon on them like he did with Bob D3. xorxes does bus rarely enough that I do not think it is unreasonable for damo to assume he was not bussing.

[bozotheclown]

Do you find it useful to know that Fluminator was town, or do you think it is useful to know the scum chose to NK him?

Well, both are important data points. I can't say I've cracked the scumteam yet, so the verdict is still out on whether it turns out to be useful for me. But both are definitely important to consider.

I think Fluminator being the NK has to be considered WIFOM.

[bozotheclown]

Xorxes has explained this. He is familiar with my style and can read me like a book.

You better be town now or I won't be happy.

Lol. I'm town.

Do you agree with me that we are basically down to 6 pairs?

If so how do you rank them?
@Bozo I would like you to do the same exercise.

Thanks.

I do not agree that we are down to six pairs, so I am not going to rank them. It is possible that you and kgray are both scum, playing to get a mislynch another day. Or, you could be scum instead of kgray. It is also not impossible that you and kgray are both town, although I think that is unlikely.

[bozotheclown]

OK, just finished rereading my own previous rereads on damo. I don't know how I forgot all that. Fine kgray, hat tip to you if you're scum. ##vote Damo

What exactly were you referring to when you said you "forgot all that"?

BunnyGo has not answered this question yet. Is anyone else concerned that BunnyGo's reason for changing his vote from kgray to damo does not make sense?

[damo666]

@Damo,

I spent a lot of time reading your prior games with Xorxes. One thing that comes through loud and clear is that you have a ton of respect for Xorxes’s Town game, and you seem to expect him to be an early Night Kill, or else you suspect him of being Scum.

With the Flum flip, we can see that Xorxes has been off track every day except Day 3. And, obviously he has not been Night Killed.

Talk to me about your Xorxes read in this game.

A bit laid back but generally town. Voting history lends itself in a town direction.

[damo666]

You better be town now or I won't be happy.

Lol. I'm town.

Do you agree with me that we are basically down to 6 pairs?

If so how do you rank them?
@Bozo I would like you to do the same exercise.

Thanks.

I do not agree that we are down to six pairs, so I am not going to rank them. It is possible that you and kgray are both scum, playing to get a mislynch another day. Or, you could be scum instead of kgray. It is also not impossible that you and kgray are both town, although I think that is unlikely.

Surely SS is as unlikely as TT. If it were SS I'd have gone for the win!

[damo666]

Lol. I'm town.

Do you agree with me that we are basically down to 6 pairs?

If so how do you rank them?
@Bozo I would like you to do the same exercise.

Thanks.

I do not agree that we are down to six pairs, so I am not going to rank them. It is possible that you and kgray are both scum, playing to get a mislynch another day. Or, you could be scum instead of kgray. It is also not impossible that you and kgray are both town, although I think that is unlikely.

Surely SS is as unlikely as TT. If it were SS I'd have gone for the win!

Sorry that's nonsense. Townslip!

[damo666]

OK, just finished rereading my own previous rereads on damo. I don't know how I forgot all that. Fine kgray, hat tip to you if you're scum. ##vote Damo

What exactly were you referring to when you said you "forgot all that"?

BunnyGo has not answered this question yet. Is anyone else concerned that BunnyGo's reason for changing his vote from kgray to damo does not make sense?

I can think of reasons but yes let's hear from soberBunny (or drunkBunny)

[Jamiet99uk]

OK, just finished rereading my own previous rereads on damo. I don't know how I forgot all that. Fine kgray, hat tip to you if you're scum. ##vote Damo

What exactly were you referring to when you said you "forgot all that"?

BunnyGo has not answered this question yet. Is anyone else concerned that BunnyGo's reason for changing his vote from kgray to damo does not make sense?

No. I think it's really obvious what he meant by that phrase.

[Jamiet99uk]

Anyway Xorxes can't be scum. He could be ignorant PZ.

Please explain this comment.

How is it impossible for Xorxes to be one of the non-PZ scum?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamie @Bunny

We have heard a lot from Balki. I'd like to hear more from you two.

I am very busy with work. There's more than 24 hours to go, and I will have more time this evening, and tomorrow (Saturday) daytime. You will hear plenty from me, I hope, before EoD.

My current rather instinctive comments to be going on with are:

1. I still think Xorxes is scum.

2. Damo is trying very, very hard. That's great although it's a marked change from his play in the first 3 or 4 days. Is he earnest, hardworking town, or scum who wants to seal the win?

3. I'm worried that I don't have a strong read on Bozo either way. Bozo is really hard to read because his tone and manner are so consistent as either alignment.

4. I am townreading Kgray less strongly than I was. Some of Kgray's responses to Damo today are.... not great. I'll explain in due course.

[damo666]

Anyway Xorxes can't be scum. He could be ignorant PZ.

Please explain this comment.

How is it impossible for Xorxes to be one of the non-PZ scum?

Because both nonPZscum were voting me. Nothing else makes sense.

[kgray]

All 3 would need to be present. Where was Bunny?

I thought you were assuming Bunny is town based on his N6 post?

I was, my assumption has changed.

Your assumption changed because Balki, Jamie and I didn't hammer you but learning that Flum was the NK is not enough to make you rethink your assumptions?

[Jamiet99uk]

Anyway Xorxes can't be scum. He could be ignorant PZ.

Please explain this comment.

How is it impossible for Xorxes to be one of the non-PZ scum?

Because both nonPZscum were voting me. Nothing else makes sense.

That is correct if you are town.

I do not know if you are town.

Thus, it is most certainly not impossible for Xorxes to be one of the non-PZ scum, from my perspective.

[kgray]

And, Damo, if you are like 100% convinced I am scum no matter what, tell me that too. Because then I don't have to invest my time into trying to figure your alignment for sure. I can just vote for you, and hope there is a next day. If you're town, and you're convinced I'm scum, Town loses. That's it. If you're scum, then we can just get on to Day whatever and find your team.

Yup. And here we have this:

@damo will you assume, just for a bit, that I'm town? Who do you think the scumteam is in that case?

If you are town scum didn't take their opportunity to win the game. I am not wasting my time on such an hypothesis.

If it turns out to be the case there will be an interesting post game debate as to whether inaction can constitute playing against one's wincon.

This is absolute nonsense.

Damo what if PZ doesn't know either of our alignments, and there was one nonPZ scum on each of us, and they didn't want to cross post their vote change? Because then it would still have been a tie and we'd have both of them?

Seriously, everyone, how can you think Damo is town when he constantly refuses to consider other options? How does that possibly come from a town mindset??

[xorxes]

@Jamie @Bunny

We have heard a lot from Balki. I'd like to hear more from you two.

I am very busy with work. There's more than 24 hours to go, and I will have more time this evening, and tomorrow (Saturday) daytime. You will hear plenty from me, I hope, before EoD.

My current rather instinctive comments to be going on with are:

1. I still think Xorxes is scum.

2. Damo is trying very, very hard. That's great although it's a marked change from his play in the first 3 or 4 days. Is he earnest, hardworking town, or scum who wants to seal the win?

3. I'm worried that I don't have a strong read on Bozo either way. Bozo is really hard to read because his tone and manner are so consistent as either alignment.

4. I am townreading Kgray less strongly than I was. Some of Kgray's responses to Damo today are.... not great. I'll explain in due course.

What about Balki and Bunny?

[kgray]

Damo how do you go from this:

Assuming random scanning ( I know it's not random but for the sake of argument allow me this) the chance of PZ having scanned me or kgray is 62%. If they haven't (38%) then roughly speaking they could have been on either wagon.

to this:

PZ on D6 was probably on me but if on kgray hadn't investigated me or kgray (possible, but less than 20% chance).

Dude just admit you're making these numbers up.

[kgray]

You are that confident that town-xorxes would continue to think you are town? How can you be so sure that xorxes will vote with you? Is it because you're scum together?

Xorxes has explained this. He is familiar with my style and can read me like a book.

You better be town now or I won't be happy.

xorxes if you are town you don't deserve whatever amazing reputation you have on this site.

[kgray]

CONCLUSIONS FROM THIS LONG BUS RIDE

(1) I find it unlikely that Scum!Xorxes cast that Bob vote for his partner, unless Xorxes is Patient Zero, and didn't know better.

(2) I am doubtful that Damo sincerely believes that Xorxes does not bus. But I want Damo (or anyone else) to tell me if that is common conventional wisdom around here. Please tell me.

In a recent game (M1009) I looked for cases of xorxes bussing to determine how likely he was bussing in that game, and did come across the case where he bussed in M42. In that game, MoscowFleet was already under significant suspicion, so I do not think he has ever bussed a teammate by starting a wagon on them like he did with Bob D3. xorxes does bus rarely enough that I do not think it is unreasonable for damo to assume he was not bussing.

There was some discussion about busing vs. distancing before. Do you think xorxes could have been intending to distance from bob, and would have moved his vote if possible? He was gone for a lot of the time leading up to the EOD, and it would have been suspicious for him to move his vote to save bob at that time.

[kgray]

OK, just finished rereading my own previous rereads on damo. I don't know how I forgot all that. Fine kgray, hat tip to you if you're scum. ##vote Damo

What exactly were you referring to when you said you "forgot all that"?

BunnyGo has not answered this question yet. Is anyone else concerned that BunnyGo's reason for changing his vote from kgray to damo does not make sense?

I agree Bunny's vote change didn't make a lot of sense, but not much of what he was saying D6 made sense to me anyway. I think it's possible that Bunny is PZ, but I think today we should try to lynch someone who is likely to be nonPZ scum. From my POV, Bunny is almost certainly not nonPZ scum.